美国航空航天与国防：商务机调查

1、COREU.S. Aerospace & DefenseBusiness Jet Survey: Hits New Low; Reduce GD/TXT ForecastsSurveyindexdrops12%to39;nowforecastdeclinein2020deliveriesforGD/TXTINDUSTRY UPDATEU.S.Aerospace&POSITIVEUnchangedEquityResearch11December2019Reducingdeliveryforecasts:Onthebackofcontinuedweaknessinoursurvey,we have

2、reducedour2020-21bizjetdeliveryforecastforGDandTXTby10%.Overall,we forecastGulfstreamlargecabindeliveries7%lowerin2020and8%lowerforCessnaex therampininitialLongitudedeliveries(ascomparedtopriorforecast).Indicatorat39:OurBarclaysBusinessJetIndicator(BBJI)continuestodecline,hittinga newlowat39,12%lowe

3、rthanourpriorsurvey(September). Bycabinclass,oursmall cabinindexcameinslightlybetterthanmidandlarge.Ourstraightupmeasureof overallbusinessconditionsstillcamethroughaboveaverageat5.8(0-10scale),slightly belowourpriorsurvey,butoffnearly20%fromitshighinlate2018.Electionyearoverhang:Respondentsappearcau

4、tiousontheoutlookinto2020with 61%ofrespondentsexpectingtheupcomingU.S.presidentialelectioncycletoweigh on the market. See pages 13-14 for additional commentary from industry professionals,whogenerallyhighlightamarketcharacterizedbyslowingtransaction activity,decliningpricesandtheoverhangofpoliticalu

5、ncertainty.Component scores: Each of our component scores (pricing, 12-month outlook, inventorylevel,willingnesstoincreaseinventory)otherthancustomerinterestdeclined tonewlowsinNovemberwithpricingandinventorybothregistering20%declines. Onabsolutebasis,ourcustomerinterestandinventoryscorescontinuetoh

6、oldinbest, near50,indicatingstablecustomerinterestandnearnormalusedinventorylevels.G700: Most respondents (68%) expect Gulfstreams recently announced ultra-large cabinG700businessjetwillatleastmodestlycannibalizeG650demand,including23% thatexpectsignificantcannibalization.However,respondentsdontfore

7、seemuchofan impact to G650 demand over the near term as G700 wont deliver insignificant volumesforseveralyears.Forafulllistofourratings,pricetargetand earningschangesinthisreport,pleasesee tableonpage2.U.S. Aerospace & Defense David Strauss+1 212 526 5580 HYPERLINK mailto:david.strauss david.strauss

8、 BCI, USMatt Akers, CFA+1 212 526 9019 HYPERLINK mailto:matt.akers matt.akers BCI, USKate Copouls, CPA+1 212 526 3283 HYPERLINK mailto:kate.copouls kate.copouls BCI, USal n rteal n rten I-d e tc itr sReofandtodoAsabethathaveathattheofasaPLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES B

9、EGINNING ON PAGE 18.Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold)CompanyRatingPricePrice TargetEPS FY1 (E)EPS FY2 (E)OldNew10-Dec-19OldNew%ChgOldNew%ChgOldNew%ChgU.S. Aerospace & DefensePosPosGeneral Dynamics Corp (GD)OW OW180.48215.00 210.

10、00-211.87 11.87-12.80 12.60-2Textron Inc (TXT)OW OW44.1465.0057.00-123.753.75-3.903.65-6Source:BarclaysResearch.SharepricesandtargetpricesareshownintheprimarylistingcurrencyandEPSestimatesareshowninthereportingcurrency. FY1(E):CurrentfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysResearch.FY2(E):Nextfiscalyearestimat

11、esbyBarclaysResearch.StockRating:OW:Overweight;EW:EqualWeight;UW:Underweight;RS:RatingSuspended IndustryView:Pos:Positive;Neu:Neutral;Neg:NegativeBarclays Business Jet SurveyOurBusinessJetSurveyisdesignedtocapturetimelyinsightsonmarketconditionsand sentiment. We regularly survey a group of US and in

12、ternational broker/dealers, manufacturers,fractionalproviders,financiersandothers,fromwhomwereceived93 responses inNovember.Investment ConclusionOurBarclaysBusinessJetIndicator(BBJI)continuestodecline,hittinganewlowat39,12% lowerthanourpriorsurvey(September). Bycabinclass,oursmallcabinindexcamein sl

13、ightlybetterthanmidandlarge.Ourstraightupmeasureofoverallbusinessconditions stillcamethroughaboveaverageat5.8(0-10scale),slightlybelowourpriorsurvey,butoff nearly20%fromhighinlate2018.Respondentsappearcautiousontheoutlookinto2020with61%ofrespondentsexpecting theupcomingU.S.presidentialelectioncyclet

14、ooverhangthemarket. Seepages13-14for additional commentary from industry professionals, who generally noted slowing transactionactivityanddecliningprices.Eachofourcomponentscores(pricing,12-monthoutlook,inventorylevel,willingnessto increaseinventory)otherthancustomerinterestdeclinedtonewlowsinNovemb

15、er.Our customerinterestandinventoryscorescontinuetoholdinbest,near50,indicatingstable customerinterestandnormalusedinventorylevels.FIGURE 1BarclaysBusinessJetIndicator(BBJI)ComponentNov-19Sep-19ChangeCustomer Interest49475%Pricing2633-23%12 Month Outlook3237-12%Inventory Levels4659-22%Willingness to

16、 Increase Inventory4045-10%Composite Indicator3944-12%Young Inventory6779-15%Business Conditions5.85.9-3%Source: Barclays ResearchOnthebackofcontinuedweaknessinoursurvey,wehavereducedour2020-21bizjet deliveryforecastforGDandTXTby10%.Overall,weforecastGulfstreamlargecabin deliveries7%lowerin2020(exG2

17、80)and8%lowerforCessnaextherampininitial Longitudedeliveries(ascomparedtopriorforecast).FIGURE 2GD Delivery Forecast (Large Cabin ex G280)120115110105100959085807570201720182019E2020EFIGURE 3TXT Delivery Forecast (ex Longitude)200195190185180175170165160201720182019E2020E2021ESource:BarclaysResearch

18、Source: BarclaysResearchFIGURE 4GDRelativeValuation(vsS&P)onN12MP/E30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%Dec-19FIGURE 5TXT Relative Valuation (vs S&P) on N12M P/E30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%Dec-19Source:BloombergandBarclaysResearch.Note:Usingconsensusestimates.Source:BloombergandBarclaysResearch.Note:Usingconsensusesti

19、mates.WehavereducedourEPSestimatesandpricetargetsforGD(to$210from$215)andTXT (to$57from$65).ForGD,ournewpricetargetreflectsa50/50blendofthefollowing methodologies:DCF(8%WACCand3%terminalgrowth)anda13.5xmultiple(14xprior) onour2021pension-adjustedFCFPSestimate.ForTXT,ournewpricetargetreflectsa 50/50b

20、lendofDCF(3%terminalgrowth,9%WACC)anda15xmultiple(sameasprior)on our2020EPSestimate.Methodology &ResultsOurproprietaryBarclaysBusinessJetIndicatorisdesignedtomeasurethetotalvalueofthe responsestooursurveyquestions.WehaveweightedeachfactorinourBBJIbasedonour perceptionofitsimportancetooverallmarketco

21、nditions.OurBBJIisscoredonascaleof zeroto100,with51-100indicatingincrementallystrengtheningmarketconditionsand0- 49indicatingincrementallyweakeningmarketconditions(withascoreof50indicating stableconditions).Ourmostrecentsurveyregistered39,12%lowerfromtheprior.FIGURE 6Barclays Business Jet Indicator

22、(BBJI)646864686868676971625455514944390Source: Barclays ResearchOurBBJIdeclined10-15%foreachcabinclass;ourlargecabinscoreisnowlowestat36, followedbymidsizecabinat39andsmallcabinat41.Scoresbelow50foreachcabinclass indicateincrementallyweakeningconditions.FIGURE 7BBJIbyCabinClass-Small66 68 66 68 6664

23、66 71 736557 57 5349 46410FIGURE 8BBJI by Cabin Class - Midsize6266 6266 71 68 65 72 706152 54 4846 45390Source:BarclaysResearchSource: BarclaysResearchFIGURE 9BBJI by Cabin Class - Large65 69 65 69 70 69 68 63 695947 51 50 4841360Source: Barclays ResearchOurNorthAmericaindexhasdroppedbymoreandisnow

24、atlowerlevelsthanEurope.FIGURE 10BBJINorthAmerica6567 6567 69 68 68 71 756455 54 51 4945370FIGURE 11BBJI - Europe6472647266 68 6860 62 56574948 49 44 420Source:BarclaysResearchSource: BarclaysResearchParticipant ProfileOfindustryprofessionalsthatrespondedtooursurvey,themajorityarebroker/dealers. Bro

25、ker/dealers are involved in the purchase and sale of both new (direct from manufacturer)andusedaircraft.MostofoursurveyparticipantsarelocatedinNorth America(80%)withanadditional16%inEurope.FIGURE 12Participant RoleFIGURE 13Participant LocationFinancier 10%Other 16%Financier 10%Other 16%Broker/Dealer

26、 69%Latin 2%Asia&2%Europe 16%North America 80%Source:BarclaysResearchSource: BarclaysResearchWhilethemajorityofrespondentsarelocatedintheUS,roughlyathirdtransactmorethan halfoftheirbusinesswithnon-UScustomers.FIGURE 14ProportionofBusinessTransactedOutsideofUSFIGURE 15Average Transaction Size12%All 1

27、2%All 4%25-50%16%More75%16%Less25%52%30M+6%20-30M9%0-5M29%5-10M27%10-20M29%Source:BarclaysResearchSource: BarclaysResearchOverall BusinessConditionsInthefirstquestion,weasked,“Onascaleof0to10,howwouldyoucharacterizeoverall businessconditionsafterfactoringintypicalseasonality(0=theworstever,10=thebes

28、t ever)?”Wereceived88responsestothisquestionwithscoresrangingfrom2to9.Note thatwhileourBBJI(discussedearlier)measuresincrementalchangefromthepriorperiod, thisquestionismeanttomeasuretheabsolutelevelofbusinessconditions. Ourstraightup measureofoverallbusinessconditionscamethroughat5.8(0-10scale),slig

29、htlybelowour priorsurvey,butoffnearly20%fromitshighinlate2018.FIGURE 16Overall Business Conditions30%25%ofresponses15%10%5%0%FIGURE 17Overall Business Conditions Score7.06.4 7.06.4 6.56.7 6.7 6.66.6 5.87.06.56.05.55.0012345678910Business Conditions RankSource:BarclaysResearchSource:BarclaysResearchG

30、700 LaunchInthenextquestion,weasked,“WithGulfstreamslaunchofitsG700,howmuchdoyou thinkthisaircraftcouldcannibalizefutureG650demand(inotherwordsdoyouviewthe G700asadditivetoorreplacingtheG650)?Ofthe91responsestothisquestion,23% indicatedG700willsignificantlycannibalizeG650withanother45%indicatingmode

31、st cannibalizationwhile32%seelittletonocannibalization.FIGURE 18No G650cannibalization 1%No G650cannibalization 1%Significantly cannibalize G650 23%Modestly G65045%Slightly G65031%El e c t i o n sre:BacasResearhE2020 Election Cycle ImpactInthenextquestion,weasked,“DoyouviewtheupcomingU.S.presidentia

32、lelectioncycle in2020aspositive(stimulate/acceleratetransactions)ornegative(defertransactions)for themarketoverthenext6-12months?”Ofthe92responsestothisquestion,11%expect theupcomingelectioncyclewillbepositive,while61%expecttheupcomingelectioncycle willbenegative,withtheremainder(28%)indicatingnoimp

33、act.FIGURE 19Election 2020Positive Positive 11%Neutral 28%Negative 61%Source: Barclays ResearchCustomer InterestNext,weasked,“SincethelastsurveyinSeptember,hasthelevelofcustomerinterest improved,stayedthesameordeteriorated?”Ofthe92responsestothisquestion,24% indicatedcustomerinteresthadimproved,whil

34、e25%indicatedcustomerinteresthad deteriorated,withtheremainder(51%)indicatingcustomerinteresthadstayedthesame. Ourcustomerinterestscorehasheldinnear50in2019,indicatingflattishinterestoffof stronginterestin2018.20 FIGUREImproved 24%Improved 24%Stayedsame 51%Deteriorated 25%FIGURE 21Customer Interest

35、Score79 77 79 77 73 75 70 72 746245 49 49 46 47 490Source:BarclaysResearchSource: BarclaysResearchBy region, customer interest appears slightly weaker in Europe than North America.FIGURE 22Customer Interest North America78 77 78 77 74 73 71 73 766445 46 49 47 48 490FIGURE 23Customer Interest Europe8

36、575857576685965 6450 455643 43 44 470Source:BarclaysResearchSource: BarclaysResearchPricingInthenextquestion,weasked,“SinceourlastsurveyinSeptember,haveoverallpricing levelsincreased,stayedthesameordecreased?”Ofthe92responsestothisquestion,7% indicatedoverallpricinglevelshadincreased,while55%indicat

37、edpricinglevelshad decreased,withtheremainder(38%)indicatingoverallpricinglevelshadstayedthesame. Following strong improvement in 2018, our pricing score has declined sharply, reaching anothernewlowthismonth.FIGURE24PricingFIGURE 25Pricing Score6457645765 69 6360 5753424843 4233260Increased 7%Stayed

38、 same 38%Decreased 55%Source:Increased 7%Stayed same 38%Decreased 55%FIGURE26Outlook12-month OutlookInthenextquestion,weasked,“Overthenext12months,doyouexpectoverallbusiness conditionstoimprove,staythesameordeteriorate?”Ofthe91responsestothisquestion, 11%indicatedtheyexpectbusinessconditionstoimprov

39、e,while46%expectoverall businessconditionstodeteriorate,withtheremainder(43%)indicatingtheyexpectoverall businessconditionstostaythesame. Our12-monthoutlookscorehastrendedlowersince thepeakinJanuary2018(followingpassageofU.S.taxreform),andalsoreachedanewlow thismonth.FIGURE 27Outlook ScoreImprove 11

40、%Deteriorate Improve 11%Deteriorate 46%Stay same 43%86 86 8176 75 72664740514441 37 320Source:BarclaysResearchSource:BarclaysResearchInventoryInthenextquestion,weasked,“Howwouldyoucharacterizecurrentinventorylevels?”Of the82responsestothisquestion,20%indicatedcurrentinventorylevelsarehigh,while 11%i

41、ndicatedinventorylevelsarecurrentlylow,withtheremainder(69%)indicating currentinventorylevelsareinlinewiththehistoricalaverage. Thisdroppedourinventory scorebelow50forthefirsttimethismonth.FIGURE28InventoryFIGURE 29Inventory Score65 6565 6570 71 75 73 73 6966 6456 5759460Low 11%High 20%Average 69%So

42、urce:BarclaysLow 11%High 20%Average 69%FIGURE 30Young InventoryYoung InventoryInthenextquestion,weasked,“Howwouldyoucharacterizecurrentinventorylevelsof relativelyyoung(0-10yr)usedaircraft?Ofthe82responsestothisquestion,11%indicated currentinventorylevelsforyoungaircraftarehigh,while45%indicatedyoun

43、ginventory levelsarecurrentlylow,withtheremainder(44%)indicatingcurrentyounginventorylevels areinlinewiththehistoricalaverage.Ouryounginventoryscoreat67stillindicates relativelylowlevelsofyoungusedinventoryonthemarket,albeitwithmoresupplythan recentpast.FIGURE 31Young Inventory ScoreHigh 11%Low High

44、 11%Low 45%Average 44%81 84858391 89 86 8473 7583 79 79670Source:BarclaysResearchSource: BarclaysResearchWillingness to IncreaseInventoryInthenextquestion,weasked,“Overthenextmonth,willyoubemoreorlesswillingto increaseyourinventory?”Ofthe50responsestothisquestion,16%indicatedtheyare morewillingtoinc

45、reasetheirinventory,while36%arelesswillingtoincreasetheir inventory,withtheremainder(48%)indicatingunchangedwillingness.Ourwillingnessto increaseinventoryscorecameinat40thismonth.FIGURE 32Willingness to Increase in InventoryFIGURE 33Willingness to Increase Inventory Score70 7570 756667 7171656052575

46、2 5045 400More Willing 16%Unchanged 48%Less 36%Source:More Willing 16%Unchanged 48%Less 36%Respondent CommentaryBizjet Market ConditionsYTDtransactionsare15-20%offof2018levels.Marketsareoff10-20%fromlastyearatthistimeintermsofunitssold.Therehasbeenanoticeabledeclineinleadgenerationandbuyerinterestin

47、the past60days.Itdoesnotappeartheend-of-yearrushwesawin2018isgoingto repeat thisyear.Stillspendingalotoftimemanagingexpectations,i.e.;sellersovervaluingtheir aircraftandbuyersconvincedthedealofalifetimeisjustaroundthecorner.Noteasytoanswersomeofthequestionsthistimearoundasitislessandlessof aonesizef

48、itsallmarket. Wehaveseensignsofdeterioratingmarketconditions, regardless of the level of activity. Some brokers may be experiencing a tremendousamountofactivity(takethiswithagrainofsaltthoughasitdepends ontheratioofairplanelistingstobrokers),escrowagentstoo,butthebottomline ispricesarefallinganddeal

49、saregrowinghardertoholdtogether.Quietlyithas beenshiftingtoabuyersmarketforselectmodelsofairplaneeventhoughthe numberofaircraftforsalemaybebelowthatthresholdof10%ofproduction.The market will heavily rely on whether buyers are confident in the overall economy,thestateofwhichiscurrentlyinconstantchang

50、e.Stillaveryflatmarket.Inventory Levels & PricingWeve never seen this many “year-end specials” from sellers looking to move/dumpaircraftpriortoyear-endasthisyear,andevenmorealarming,failing toattractabuyerevenatthesteeplydiscountedpricing-thepast46weekshas beenatrueracetothebottom. Theslowdownseemed

51、togainmomentum3-4 weeksagoatNBAAwherethecommondiscussionamongstbrokerswas“things areslowandwethinktheyregoingtobeslowerin2020,soweretellingour clientstosellnow”.Overthelastmonthwehaveseenalargenumberofpricedecreasesandmore aircraftenteringthemarket.Itshappeningacrossallofthesuper-midtoultra- large c

52、abinmarkets.65%oftheglobalmarketforbusinessjets(NorthAmerica)isaverysaturated, maturemarketwheredemandisprimarilyreplacementdemandwithrelativelyfew newfirst-timejetowners.Thisisparticularlytrueinthelarge-cabinsegment. Despitelacklustergrowthinnetnewjetownersgloballyforoveradecade,OEMs havesoldnearly

53、6,000newjetsintothemarketsince2009.Unlesscurrent productionlevels(describedbyOEMsasfrustratinglylow)aremetwithincreased netnewdemand,newjetpricingmarginswillremainsqueezedandin-servicefleet residualvalueswillkeepgettingcrushed.Itsahugedisincentivetobuynewjets whentheirvaluesdropby50%inthefirst5-7yea

54、rs. Ifacouplecompanies(outof dozenswhoaretrying)figureoutthemodelforshared-useaircraftandcanserve alargechunkofmarketdemandwithfewerhigh-utilizationaircraft(andprovide affordable,goodservice),thingswillreallygetinteresting.Pricingstillanissueforpre-ownedandnewaircraftsales.Internationalmarkets arest

55、ruggling,mainlyinAsiaPacificandChina.Scarcityandabundanceofinventoryvarybymakeandmodel. Somemodels,you cantakethepickofthelitterandothermodels,planesgointocontractassoonas theyhitthemarket.Specific ModelsUnlikethesignificantbacklogenjoyedbytheGulfstream650,Gulfstreamsbacklog onthe500/600aircraftisno

56、tashealthy.Customersdontseemtobeinahurrytobuyabigger/fasteraircraft.Whenanewaircrafttypeispresentedonthemarketitisnormallytakingoverthe previousmodel.ButdonothaveenoughinformationontheGulfstreamG700yet tomakethisdetermination.G700isstilltoofarouttoaffecttheG650inthenearterm.TheG700wontstartdeliverin

57、guntil2022soIthinkGulfstreamwillcontinueto sellagoodnumberofnew650satleastuntilthen.PilatusPC-24continuestosellintoabacklog.FlexjetistakingsignificantmarketsharefromNetJets.NetJetsisfocusedon profitabilitytargetsandisnotcompetingaggressively.NetJetshasselectedthe Longitudetoboostprofits,eventhoughth

58、eChallenger350isabetterplaneforits customers.Asthesupermidsizespacematures,wearemonitoringwhichOEMscangarner marketshareinacrowdedmarketwithmultipleproductofferings.Macroeconomic and Political ConditionsLotsofpoliticalunknownsinthecurrentmarketplace;U.S.Elections,Brexit,Trade Wars,Etc.Thismarketdoes

59、ntlikeuncertainty!Apotentialrecession,combinedwithaU.S.presidentialelection,willhavemany potential customerswaiting.Inthehistoryofaircraftsales(okaymyhistoryofaircraftsales)anelectionyear hasneverbeengoodforbusiness.Expectamorepronouncedslow-downaswe go through2020.Webelievethepoliticallyuncertainty

60、aroundtheglobeiscausingcustomersto delaythepurchasesofaircraft,especiallynew. LatinAmericaisamess,concern overpoliticalleadership. HKisalarming,andtheUSlookslikeitwillcontinue underTrumporfallintothehandsofDemocrats,neitherofwhichisgoodfor business. Havingsaidthat,Q4hasbeenbusy.Giventheupcomingelect