美国经纪人与资产管理人：风险偏好依然强劲

1、GlobalResearch7 March2019US Brokers & Asset ManagersAmericasUBSEvidenceLabinside:Yieldseekingincreases; Recruiting eases further; Risk appetites stillrobustAmericasLatest FA Survey favors BLK and MS; Deposit pressure at SCHW unlikely to ease We used UBS Evidence Lab data to address pivotal questions

2、 around investor sentiment, yield sensitivity, product demand and recruiting activity in the latest FA survey. The survey results indicated positive trends for BLK (strong ETF franchise, improving demand for active fixed income) and MS (slowing FA mobility). The increasing importance of yield for ca

3、sh equivalents (particularly MMFs) is likely a headwindfordiscountbrokers,particularlySCHWgiventhefirmsrelianceondeposit spreads and more sophisticated customerbase.FA mobility hits a low point; RIA platforms ranked into three tiersFA teton to cae frms eced ustatay to te wet evel yet fr te survey.Re

4、cruitingintensitymoderatedforallfirmsbutmostsignificantlyatwirehouses, as the impact of firms exiting the broker protocol seems to be having a chilling effect on mobility. FAs also ranked RIA custodial platforms, with SCHW in the top tier, although surprisingly last among the top tier. AMTD and Pers

5、hing (BK) comprise a middletier,behindtheleadersbutwellaheadoftherest.TCA(ETFC)isrankedamong smaller platforms but seems to be punching above itsweight.Risk appetites easing but remain solid, active equity still viewed favorablyRiskappetiteamongFAclientshaseasedfromlastyear,thoughstillrelativelystro

6、ng. Clientsareconcernedaboutvolatilityandhaveraisedtheircashallocation.Thatsaid, demand for actively managed products is still growing, with notable acceleration in active fixed income. Like last year, demand is strongest for the emerging markets category.ThemostimportantfactorforETFselectionremains

7、thespecificindextracked by the product, leading other factors by a wider margin than last year. Lagging ETF providers fell further behind the largest ETFsponsors.Strong Annuity Sales in 2018 Driven by Fixed/Indexed vs. VariableAccording to LIMRA, annuity sales grew 14% in 2018, led by 25% growth in

8、Fixed/Indexed vs. just 2% growth in VAs. According to the survey, the majority of advisorscontinuetoviewannuitiesasimportantinfinancialplanning,expecttheiruse of annuities to increase over time, and expect sales to grow in 2019 (consistent with what weve heard from managements across ourcoverage).Fi

9、nancial ServicesEquitiesBrennan Hawken, CPAFinancial ServicesEquities HYPERLINK mailto:brennan.hawken +1-212-7139439JohnNadel HYPERLINK mailto:john.nadel +1-212-7134299Eric E.Wasserstrom HYPERLINK mailto:eric.wasserstrom +1-212-7131355Adam Q. Beatty,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:adam.beatty +1-212-7132481Bre

10、ntDilts HYPERLINK mailto:brent.dilts +1-212-7131841 HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 21. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.

11、 As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Table of Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Keytakeaways3 HYPERLINK l

12、 _bookmark1 Risk appetitedownsomewhat3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Yield seeking in cash equivalents, but rates not leading to higher loan HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 paydownsyet5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Activefixedincomegainingmomentum;EMstillstrong6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 ExposuresincreasinglydriveETFselecti

13、on8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 RIAcustodyplatformrankingssuggestthreetiers9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Protocolseemstobeslowingrecruiting10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Annuities remain a core product offering, with strong fixed/indexed sales HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 growth in2018(Nadel)12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 In

14、terest in loan participation funds may be inflecting off of a low HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 (Wasserstrom)15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 FA customer cost sensitivity to fees & commissions more than product HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 pricing18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Modelportfoliosencouragedbuttangibleincentives

15、yettomaterialize18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Lesspressuretowardoffdisruptors19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Regulation remains in flux and firms responses to proposed Reg BI vary HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 widely19Basedonourtakeaways,weareincrementallymore/lesspositiveonthefollowing stocks:Figure 1: Impact on

16、 stock views from results of FASurveyMore PositiveAnalystRationaleBEN, BLKHawkenGrowing demand for active fixed income, easing risk appetiteBLK, IVZ, STTHawkenPreferred ETF brandsMSHawkenLess FA mobility, greater emphasis on model portfoliosBLKHawkenGreater emphasis on model portfoliosETFC,SCHWHawke

17、nSCHW confirmed as leading RIA custodian (although bottom of the top tier), TCA gaining recognitionLCWasserstrom Interest in consumer loans as an investable asset class may be inflecting higher AEL, ATH,BHF, FG,LNC,PRUNadelImproved sales drives account value and earnings growthLessPositiveAnalystRat

18、ionaleTROW,IVZHawkenGrowing demand for active fixed income, easing risk appetiteSCHW,SCHW,WETFHawkenETF brands out of favorAMTD,BKHawkenRanked below the leaders as RIA custodian, though gaining AMTD,BKHawkenRanked below the leaders as RIA custodian, though gaining recognitionSource: UBS Global Resea

19、rchKey takeawaysRisk appetite down from last year, though still solid: Risk appetite among FA clients has eased from last year, though still relatively strong. Clients are concerned about volatility and have raised their cash allocation. That said, demand for actively managed products is still growi

20、ng, with notable accelerationinactivefixedincome.Likelastyear,demandisstrongestforthe emerging markets category.Signs of yield seeking among cash equivalents: The yield on MMF and shorter-term fixed income has become more important to investors, with the increased importance most pronounced forMMFs.

21、A more refined approach to ETF selection: The most important factor for ETFselectionremainsthespecificindextrackedbytheproduct,leadingother factors by a wider margin than last year. Lagging ETF providers fell further behind the largest ETFsponsors.FA mobility hits the lowest level in the history of

22、the survey: FAs stated intention to change firms declined substantially to the lowest level our survey has recorded, going back to 2016. Recruiting intensity moderated for all firms but most significantly at wirehouses, as the impact of some largefirms exiting the broker protocol seems to be having

23、a chilling effect onmobility.RIA platforms sifted into three tiers by FAs: Our new ranking of RIA custodian platforms suggests three distinct tiers of providers, with SCHW among the leaders. AMTD and Pershing (BK) comprise a distinct middle tier, behindtheleadersbutwellaheadofotherfirms.TCA(ETFC)isr

24、ankedamong the smaller providers but garners the highest weighted average rank, suggesting it punches above itsweight.Risk appetite down somewhatMorethantwiceasmanyinvestorsraisedtheircashlevelsasloweredthemin the last six months, suggesting some risk aversion and more recently taxloss selling in th

25、e retail channel.January industry data indicates that cash levels remain elevated, with money market fund AUM higher than a year ago and modest MMFinflows.Figure 2: Many clients raised cash levelsDecreased 17%Increased 40%Stayed the43%Source: UBS Evidence Lab Note: Client change in cash allocationA

26、majority of FAs report concern among some of their clients over the recent equity market volatility, though less than half of clients for most FAs. Notably, clients are generally taking some action based on that concern, which means increasingcashlevelsformost(84%)andbuyingbondsforsome(37%).Weviewth

27、evolatility,uncertainoutlookforbonds,andhigherSTratesaslikely shifting some investor allocations toward cash and away from bonds, which might otherwise benefit more from aversion to equityrisk.Survey question (Figures 3-5): How many of your clients are concerned about cyclical/market risk? Are they

28、taking action about it, and what specific action?Figure3:FAsreportsomeclients concerned about equityrisk40%30%20%10%0%Figure 4: But few investors with concerns are taking action50%40%30%20%10%0%Figure 5: Many investors hiding in cash; fewer look to bonds or options100%80%60%40%20%0%0% - 1-10% 11-25%

29、 26-50% 51-75% Over0% - 1-10% 11-25% 26-50% 51-75% OverIncreased Buy bonds Derivatives DontNone75%None75%cash / MMFSknowSource: UBSEvidenceLabNote:%ofclients concerned about equity marketvolatilitySource: UBSEvidenceLab Note:%ofclientstaking actionrelatedtoequitymarketvolatilityconcernsSource: UBS E

30、vidence Lab Note: % of client actions related to equity market volatility concernsDespite many investors moving to cash, FAs report twice as many clients increasedtheirriskappetiteasdecreasedit(44%vs.22%),thoughlessskewed than a year ago (48% vs. 12%).These trends suggest to us that while risk appet

31、ites have pulled back, they remain generally healthy.Figure 6: Greater dispersion ofriskappetiteFigure 7: Still healthy though easing from lastyear60%60%40%40%20%20%0%Nov15Nov16Jan18IncreasedDecreased0%Nov15Nov16Jan181-59 or moreSource:UBSEvidenceLab Note:%ofFAsreportingincreasedordecreased client r

32、isk appetiteSource: UBS Evidence Lab Note: Risk appetite on numerical scale, higher number=greaterappetite;10=pre-crisislevel;11=greaterthanpre-crisislevel.Despite the increased risk appetite, cash allocations by some investors were higherthanlastyear.Tous,thissuggestsdivergentsentimentamonginvestor

33、s, or possibly barbelling toward high- and low-risk investments while reducing exposure to securities with moderate risk. Notably, it could also reflect higher STinterestrates,whichmadecashequivalentsmoreattractive.Allocations to cash among FA clients increased, with over a third (35%) reporting10%c

34、ash,upfrom28%ayearago,withacomparabledecreasein clients with 100bpsSource: UBSEvidenceLab Note:%ofFAsreportingincreaseordecreasein client loan balancesSource: UBS Evidence Lab Note: Amount of additional rate hikes (in bps) needed for clients to reduce loan balancesActive fixed income gaining momentu

35、m; EM still strongActive fixed income is gaining momentum among investors, surpassing all equity and blended strategies except emerging markets, likely driven by the combination of late cycle credit concerns, uncertainty of the interest rate outlook and equity volatility.Notably, passive fixed incom

36、e, which has seen both product innovation and price reduction in recent years, had nearly the lowest reported growth in demand(18%,withloanparticipationlowestat9%).Wesuspectthatsomeof the above factors which favor active investing have made FA clients cautious about passive fixed income, even as the

37、y seek to lower their portfolio risk. Importantly,thefeeratedifferencesbetweenactiveandpassivebondproducts are not as wide as equity products.Investors are about evenly split on unconstrained and target date products, with nearly equal proportions of respondents (26-28%) reporting growing vs. fading

38、 demand for each of thesecategories.Figure 14: Retail investors favor emerging markets and active fixed income, but shy away from passive bond funds14%14%13%18%13%22%13%27%28%26%27%39%28%49%42%50%46%49%44%43%50%53%46%47%39%38%35%30%29%27%26%23%18%9%MarketsActive FixedPassive EquityLiquid Alternative

39、sBetaUnconstrained TargetDateTraditional AlternativesPassive FixedLoan ParticipationIncomeGrowingStableFadingIncomeSource: UBS Evidence Lab Note: % of FAs reporting growing/stable/fading demand for each product categoryActiveequitydemandcontinuestogrow,thoughlessthanpassiveequity(35% vs. 38%), after

40、 active briefly had greater demand a yearago.Figure 15: Active equity demand still positive but moderatingFigure 16: Active fixed income demand accelerating50%40%30%20%10%Active EquityNov15Nov16Jan18FadingGrowing50%40%30%20%10%Active Fixed IncomeNov15Nov16Jan18FadingGrowingSource: UBSEvidenceLab Not

41、e:%ofFAsreportinggrowing/fadingdemandfor active equity productsSource: UBS Evidence Lab Note: % of FAs reporting growing/fading demand for active fixed income productsEmerging markets had the strongest positive sentiment among investment categories for the second straight year, with 47% of survey re

42、spondents reportinggrowinginterestinthecategory(thougheasingfrom65%lastyear).Demand for liquid alternatives had a positive inflection (30% growing / 22% fading vs. 21% / 27% last year), which suggests that late cycle concerns and greaterproductavailabilitymaybegeneratinghigherinvestorinterest.Figure

43、 17: Emerging markets demandremainsstrongFigure18:Positiveshiftinliquidaltsdemandbutremainstepid50%40%30%20%10%EmergingMarketsNov15Nov16Jan18FadingGrowing50%40%30%20%10%0%Liquid AltsNov16Jan18FadingGrowingSource: UBSEvidenceLab Note:%ofFAsreportinggrowing/fadingdemand for emerging markets productsSo

44、urce: UBS Evidence Lab Note: % of FAs reporting growing/fading demand for liquid alts productsExposures increasingly drive ETF selectionThemostimportantfeatureinchoosingETFsisspecificexposure(58%ranked it 1 or 2 among 6 factors). Length of track record and expense ratio are the next most important f

45、actors (roughly even with 41% and 38% respectively). ETF exposure (specific index tracked) has been gaining importance in ETF selectionbyretailinvestors,suggestingmoresophisticatedusagefortargeting particular investment views and managing specificrisks.Length of track record has also gained importan

46、ce, possibly as a way of validating that performance of specific products aligns with stated objectives. Meanwhile,expenseratioshavebeendecreasinginsignificanceforinvestors, which we view as a reflection of greater pricing efficiency across the ETF industry.TheleastimportantfactorsinchoosingETFsareb

47、randname(just15%ranked it 1 or 2 among the 6 factors), and tracking error (19%). Brand name ranked below tracking error for the first time in this survey, although the divergence between brands in Figure 21 suggests brand may impact ETF selection negatively. In other words, a weak brand may be a rea

48、son FAs do not recommendacertainETFonceotherfactorsareconsidered.Figure19:Exposure,trackrecord&pricedriveETFchoiceFigure20:Specificexposurebecomingmoreimportant,suggesting FAs becoming more sophisticated with ETFs70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Specific index trackedLength track recordExpense ratioLiquidity

49、Trackingerrorname2.02.53.03.54.04.560%55%50%45%Nov16Jan18Jan19%TopScoresWeighted AverageRankSource: UBSEvidenceLab Note:%Topscores=%ofrankingsinthetopthird of factors; Lower weighted average rank = betterSource: UBS Evidence Lab Note: % of rankings in the top third of factorsFAsinthesurveypreferiSha

50、res(BLK)andSPDRs(STT)mostamongETFbrands (79%and67%,respectively,ranked8+on1-10scale),whileETFsfromSCHW (14%)andWETF(27%)aretheleastlikelytoberecommendedbythoseFAs. LesspreferredETFbrandshavefallenfurtheroutoffavorinthelatestsurvey, decreasing by an average of nearly 12 ppts vs. lastyear.Figure21:Whi

51、lebrandmaynotbecritical,thereisawide divergence in the perception ofprovidersFigure 22: ETF laggards further out of favor100%80%60%40%20%SPDRsPowerSharesWisdomTreeSchwab60%40%20%0%57%45%45%40%27%23%14%FirstTrustWETFSCHW(BLK)(STT) Vanguard(IVZ)(WETF)(SCHW)Jan18 Jan19Source: UBSEvidenceLab Note:%ofFAs

52、whorecommendthespecifiedbrandSource: UBS Evidence Lab Note: % of FAs who recommend the specifiedbrandRIA custody platform rankings suggest three tiersAmong independent custody platforms, FAs ranked Raymond James and Fidelity highest, followed by LPL and SCHW (regardless of their current provider)and

53、weconsiderthesefourproviderstobethetoptier.Amongother competing firms, AMTD and Pershing (part of BK) had moderately positive ratings,thoughwithmeaningfullyfewer(-15ppts)high-rankingvotesthanthe four leaders, which we consider the middle (and potentially up and coming) tier.Notably, despite being a

54、smaller platform than industry leaders, Trust Co of Americaisgenerallywell-regardedbyFAs,asindicatedbyitsweightedaverage rank,whichisstrongestamongthesmallerplatformsinthesurvey.Figure 23: There seem to be three tiers of RIA custodians80%370%460%550%640%730%20%810%90%RaymondFidelitySchwabPershingSEI

55、10TradePMROtherJamesFinancialAmeritradeAdvisor ClearingService GroupInstitutional Companyof America%TopScoresWeighted Average RankSource: UBS Evidence Lab Note: % Top scores = % of rankings in the top third of firms; Lower ranking = betterProtocol seems to slow recruitingAnotheryearhaspassedsincethe

56、announcementsoflargefirmswithdrawing fromthebrokerprotocol,andrecruitingseemstobeslowingaccordingly.At this point, 34% of FAs expect a slowdown in recruiting as a result of protocol withdrawals, though in some ways this has already occurred. Just 14%ofFAs(vs.22%lastyear)saythatthepullbackfromprotoco

57、lmakesthem more likely to go independent as aresponse.Figure24:FAsexpectlessrecruitingimpactfromprotocol withdrawals70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Jan18Jan19SlowAccelerateFigure 25: but seem less likely to go independent as a result30%20%10%0%Jan18Jan19SomewhatmorelikelyNot at all likelySource: UBS Evidence

58、 LabNote: 33%/36% Not Sure in18/19Source: UBS Evidence Lab Note: 61%/52% say No Impact in 18/19Lowest FA mobility in the history of the surveyhe t s our eprene tht tated ntent to hnge frms ubtantay overstates actual movement, the change from the prior survey a year ago is noteworthy. The likelihood

59、of staying at the same firm for 6 months increased to75%fromjust20%lastyearandabovetheleveloftheNov16survey.In the next 6 months, very few FAs expect to change firms. For an 18-month timehorizon,overhalfofFAsexpecttostayputattheircurrentfirm,whilejust 7%seethemselvesasverylikelytochangefirms(downfro

60、m43%lastyear).Survey question (Figures 26-27): How likely are you to change firms within the next 6 months? What about the next 18 months?Figure 26: Fewer advisors are willing to change firmsFigure 27: even over a longer termhorizon70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Nov16Jan18UnlikelytochangeVery likely tochang