全球浆纸：会低到什 么程度

1、LatAmEquitiesPaper & Forest ProductsHow low can it go?Global Pulp & Paperwe expect further weakness on poor marketfundamentalsLatAmEquitiesPaper & Forest ProductsHow low can it go?Global Pulp & PaperPulp prices likely to test cost support levels over seasonally Reiterate Buy rating on Suzano and Hol

2、d ratings on Klabin, Pulp prices under pressure Bleached hardwood kraft (BHK) pulp prices in China have fallen by 20%, with softwood (BSK) pulp prices down by 29%, which in turn has11 June 2019Jonathan Brandt, CFASr Analyst, LatAm Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK ma

3、ilto:jonathan.l.brandt jonathan.l.brandt+1 212 525 4499Mariano Szachtman*Analyst, LatAm Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper HSBC Bank Argentina S.A. HYPERLINK mailto:mariano.szachtman.ar mariano.szachtman.ar+54 11 4121 7629Ethan KirwinAnalyst, LatAm Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

4、 HYPERLINK mailto:ethan.r.kirwin ethan.r.kirwin+1 212 525 3035led to weakness in the US and Europe. Part of the reason for the significantprice reduction is due to the fact that prices were artificially high last year, boosted by planned and unplanned supply outages and uncertainty related to the Ch

5、inese environmental policies surrounding recycled paper imports. This has been exacerbated by slowing paper and board demand in China, and severe destocking efforts by pulp buyers in recent months.in to to in to to in to is to of in EU In to to a On in to istoain toReiterate Buy rating on Suzano; Ho

6、ld ratings on Klabin, CMPC and Copec. Our pulp price cuts 8% in 2019e and 9% in 2020e move our earnings estimates lower for Klabin, CMPC and Copec.Summary of ratings and changes to target prices6Jun TP Rating Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualifi

7、ed pursuant to FINRAregulationsUpside/Marketcap3mADTVNet debt/CompanyTickerCurrencypriceOldNewOldNewdownside(USDm)(USDm)EBITDA 19SuzanoSUZB3BZBRL29.9553.0047.00BuyBuy56.9%10,500663.8KlabinKLBN11 BZ BRL15.5019.0016.50HoldHold6.5%4,319193.6Empresas CMPCCMPCCICLP1,8082,5502,000HoldHold10.6%6,52672.0Emp

8、resas COPECCOPECCICLP7,12010,1507,975HoldHold12.0%13,53163.4Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimatesDisclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Issuer of report: H

9、SBC Securities (USA) Inc.View HSBC Global Researchat: HYPERLINK / 22Global Pulp & Paper sector valuation, calendar year-endBBGClosingTargetHSBC Mktcap PE(x) PBV(x) EV/EBITDA (x) _ Div yield (%) ROE(%) Net debt/EBITDA AnalystCompany namecodeCcypricepriceRatingUSD m2019e2020e2019e2020e2019e2020e2019e2

10、020e2019e2020e2019e2020eLatAmBrazilDuratex*DTEX3 BZBRL10.4511.75Buy1,8688%1%6%8%2.41.9 Jonathan BrandtKlabin*KLBN11 BZBRL15.5016.50Hold4,3195%5%11%19%3.63.7 Jonathan BrandtSuzano*SUZB3 BZBRL29.9547.00Buy10,5002%2%16%26%3.83.1 Jonathan Brandt OthersCMPC*CMPC CICLP1,8082,000Hold6,52623.97.26

11、.12%2%3%5%2.01.5 Jonathan BrandtCOPEC*COPEC CICLP7,1207,975Hold13,3633%2%6%6%3.43.2 Jonathan BrandtMasisaMASISA CICLP45.00NRNR510nananananananananananana Not CoveredKimberly Clark*KIMBERA MMMXN35.5535.50Hold5,93722.519.520.518.213.312.45%4%89%99%1.91.8 Jonathan BrandtLatAm average6,1463%2%

12、20%25%3.12.7Brazil average5,56217.89.06.53%2%14%22%3.63.1Chile average6,8003%2%5%5%2.92.6EMEAMondiMND SJZAR311.44NRNR10,14010.06.36.14%4%24%21%1.21.0 Not CoveredSappiSAP SJZAR54.42NRNR2,0226.04.64.35%6%16%15%2.11.9 Not CoveredStora EnsoSTERV FHEUR9.19NRNR8,8458.28.01.06%6%13%12%1.61.3 Not

13、CoveredSCA ABSCAB SSSEK73.80NRNR5,59615.09.58.53%3%9%9%0.90.5 Not CoveredUPM-KymmeneUPM1V HEEUR22.15NRNR13,33810.05.85.76%6%12%11%-0.3-0.4 Not CoveredAverage7,9885%5%15%14%0.80.6UnitedStatesBoise CascadeBCC USUSD23.54NRNR9172%3%10%11%1.11.0 Not CoveredDomtarUFS USUSD43.82NRNR2,804%4%12%9%0.50.3 Not

14、CoveredIntl. PaperIP USUSD44.64NRNR17,732.06.66.45%5%27%23%2.32.1 Not CoveredAverage7,75%5%20%17%2.32.1AsiaHengan*1044 HKHKD58.873.80Hold8,924%5%25%25%1.31.4 Lina Yan*Lee & Man2314 HKHKD5.0NRNR2,796%7%17%15%1.81.6 Not CoveredNine Dragons2689 HKHKD6.0NRNR3,596%7%13%13%2.52.2 Not CoveredNip

15、pon Paper3863 JPJPY1,896.0NRNR2,032%2%2%6%7.26.7 Not CoveredOJI Paper3861 JPJPY581.0NRNR5,442%2%9%9%2.62.2 Not CoveredVinda Intl.*3331 HKHKD13.712.50Reduce2,08222.09.68.12%2%8%11%2.32.1 Lina Yan*Average4,14611.610.72.04%4%16%16%2.42.2Global average6,5004%4%18%18%2.11.8Notes: *Companies cov

16、ered by HSBC; Ratios have been calendarized and regional averages are market cap weighted; Data as of 6 June 2019; *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations;Equities Equities Paper & ForestProducts11 June2019Near-term

17、pain to continuePulp prices have come under pressure, and will likely fall to support levels; trade tensions further exacerbating theproblemsElevated inventory to weigh on BHK pulp prices in the short term; normalized inventory levels to take time but required for betterImproved demand and supply di

18、scipline should keep the hardwood pulp market tight and allow prices to rebound in the mediumtermPulp prices are under pressurePulp prices have been under pressure for the past few months, after experiencing a significant rally during 2017 and 2018. Recently, Chinese paper producers have been pushin

19、g for a reduction in pulp prices, especially hardwood, citing falling profitability. A decrease in shipments to Europe is also exacerbated the situation.EU pulp benchmarkprices (USD/t)China pulp prices net(USD/t)1,300Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18EUBHKPEUNBSK400Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-1BHKPBSKP8Jan-19Jan-16

20、Jan-17Jan-1BHKPBSKPSource: FOEX,RISI, HSBCSource: FOEX, RISI,HSBCChinas paper and board production and consumption fell 6.2% y-o-y in 2018, after recording growth for four consecutive yearstotheandy in for The be duetoabythe The on tointhusonPaper prices in China have fallen recentlyNov-16Feb-17May-

21、17Aug-17Nov-17Feb-18May-18Aug-18Nov-18High-strength corrugating (RMB/t)Kraft-top liner, 170g (RMB/t)Testliner, 140 g(RMB/t)White-top liner, 140 g (RMB/t) Unbl. Kraftliner, 175 g+, export to China (USD/t) -RHS800750700650600550500Source: RISIAs a result of falling paper prices and high raw material c

22、osts, Chinese paper producers profitability came under pressure, which in turn has led to weaker pulp prices. In addition to a weaker operating environment, the depreciation of the RMB against the USD has also cut into sector profitability, as Chinese paper producers import raw materials, which are

23、denominated in USD, whereas their end producer prices (paper, board, tissue, etc) are in RMB. With the weakening demand, it has been difficult to pass on the impact of the RMB through end product price hikes. In turn, this has exacerbated the issue of falling pulp prices.Profitability of Chinese pap

24、er fell8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%Jan-11Jan-13Jan-15Jan-17Profit margins for Chinese Paper making and productsenterprises (ytd basis)RMB depreciation also to put pressure on pulp prices7.207.006.806.606.406.206.005.805.60May-14May-15May-16May-17May-18May-19RMB:USDSource:NBS, HSBCSource: Refinitiv Datas

25、tream,HSBCUS tariffs an additional headwindThe resurgence of trade tensions between US and China is further weighing on pulp prices. We see a two-fold impact on the supply and demand scenario from any potential trade related restrictions. China exports c5% of its paper and paperboard production and,

26、 according to the UN Comtrade database, c16% of the total paper and paperboard exports were directed to the US. Most of these products are subjected/proposed to fall under the tariffs, suggesting that c0.8%-1% of Chinese paper production is at risk.However, we believe that the risks arising from an

27、indirect impact could be much higher. The biggest impact could be on packaging paper given its wide usages. Containerboard paper production has had a CAGR of 5% over the last ten years, and is one of highest growth category for paper production. Furthermore, domestic demand could also be impacted du

28、e tothe ripple impact of lower exports on Chinese economic activity. HSBC Economists believe that the new tariffs will weigh on Chinas growth, and estimate that the hike from 10% to 25% on USD200bn of goods will shave 0.3-0.5ppt off GDP growth over 12 months. The impact of a 25% tariff rate on an ad

29、ditional USD325bn of goods would be 1.1-1.2ppt over 12 months. However, they believe that Beijing is likely to step up easing and focus on supporting the private sector to offset the growth impact. Please see the 10 May report, HYPERLINK /R/10/xvQ9rrz3pME9 Renewed China-US tariff war - China HYPERLI

30、NK /R/10/xvQ9rrz3pME9 Economics and FX implications, for details.At this point, we are not overly concerned about additional tariffs being placed on pulp imports from the US as a retaliatory measure. Several weeks ago, there was a risk that this could materialize, as recovered paper import tariffs w

31、ere increased to 20%. However, the Chinese government has kept the tariff on pulp imports from the US unchanged at 5%. The direct impact from additional tariffs, should they materialize in the future, would likely be negligible. The US accounted for c9% of total Chinese pulp imports in 2018, out of

32、which we estimate that c75% of that was softwood pulp.US accounted for c9% of the total Chinese pulp imports in 2018-Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-1830%25%20%15%10%5%0%Source: RISI, HSBCBSKBHKMECUKPShare US in BSK importsShare US in BHK importsHowever, as we mention

33、ed, the Chinese government has increased tariffs on recovered paper imports from 10% to 20%, effective from 1 June. We estimate the US accounts for roughly 40- 50% of total Chinese imports of recycled paper (and 10-15% of overall recycled paper consumption). The Chinese government has already been p

34、ushing its environmental policies, and a reduction in an import of recovered paper has been part of this program for several years. In 2017, the Chinese government moved further to clamp down on pollution, restricting the imports of mixed paper, which often times can be mixed with trash that ended u

35、p in China.to a in in to to a In to to in in to in Chinas counter measures have also played a role in influencing pulp prices, with the government cutting VAT on Chinese pulp imports by 3% to 13% effective 1 April (which helped support prices earlier this year), helping to make imported pulp cheaper

36、 for Chinese paper and board producers. However, given the weak operating environment in China, this resulted in lower international pulp prices, in our view. In the medium term, the step could lend support to the domestic demand.Chinese recovered paper imports are falling3.202.702.201.701.20Jan-09J

37、an-10Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%Breakdown of Chinese recovered paper imports (mt)5-China recovered paper imports(mt)y-o-y 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018OCCONPMixed paperOthersSource: China Customs,Bloomberg,HSBCSourc

38、e: China Customs,RISISupply response is herethe key is the BHK the anditisa in this and few asandbeitto the has too to intheIn addition, Asia Pacific Resources International (APRIL) has also announced a cut of 600kt in capacity as compared to the last year due to its upcoming conversion to dissolvin

39、g pulp at its Rizhao mill and maintenance downtimes. In aggregate, we expect these reductions in hardwood pulp supply during the year will likely improve the supply side of the equation. However, we expect these reductions to be phased in over the year, and thus wont result in an immediate solution

40、to the problem.Furthermore, Chenmings mill in China, which was supposed to be integrated, came back online in May after being shut for several months, with some of the pulp reportedly being sold in the market, which is adding to oversupply at the moment, though we expect this to eventually be divert

41、ed to internal usage eventually. In addition, there is another Chenming mill, which was originally supposed to produce 600kt of BSK and dissolving pulp, now reportedly selling hardwood pulp, though unbleached, into the market. We expect this mill to eventually switch to dissolving pulp.So what it me

42、ans for the hardwood marketHigh level of inventory remains a key overhang on the hardwood pulp marketCurrently, the high level of BHK pulp inventory remains a key overhang on the hardwood pulp market. According to data released by PPPC for the month of April, hardwood inventories fell two days m-o-m

43、 to 65 days, but were still 27 days above the historical monthly average.Hardwood shipments declined 6.5% y-o-y in April, continuing the trend witnessed during 1Q19 (-10% y-o-y). Inventories at Chinese ports and European ports have slightly receded, but still remain at an elevated level.Hardwood inv

44、entories are at elevated levels (inventory days)Hardwood shipments were down 9.3% y-o- y during the first four months (in mt)8.07.27.08.07.27.06.80.21-0.478.19-0.01-0.12 -0.01 -0.35-0.09 0.07 7.42Avg historical2019Source:PPPC, HSBCSource: PPPC,HSBCChinese port inventories have started to recede, but

45、 still at elevated levels (in kt)2,0001,5001,000500Pulp inventory at European ports (in kt) remains high as wellApr-03Apr-04Apr-03Apr-04Apr-05Apr-06Apr-07Apr-08Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Apr-13Apr-14Apr-15Apr-16Apr-17Apr-18Apr-19Jan-15Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16Jan-15Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16Apr-16 J

46、ul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19Apr-19QingdaoChangshuNetherlands/BelgiumFranceUKGermanySwitzerlandSpainSource: UPM,RISI,HSBCSource: Europulp,HSBCThe supply side response has been significant, and so utilization rates on “effective” capacity will look good. We

47、 like Suzanos production cuts, proving itself as an industry leader, but think its too little, too late to make a meaningful difference. We have argued before it would be difficult for Suzano to control prices in the short term, given that it has just under 30% market share, which is not significant

48、 enough to dictate commodity prices, in our view, though we continue to believe that it will play a meaningful role in influencing prices in the medium to longer term given the share of incremental projects/capacity that it controls.In the short term, we have not heard of any other producer taking e

49、conomic downtime, with the announcement from APRIL more due to structural changes rather than forced by the current market scenario. We expect higher inventories to pressure prices down through the seasonally slower summer months, if not longer, before potentially rebounding. Our forecasts incorpora

50、te BHK pulp prices that reach cost support levels in 2H19, which could be as low as USD500- 550/t. For reference, the last major destocking cycle by the Chinese pulp buyers in 2016 drove prices down into the USD470-480/t range, before quickly rebounding.As long as port/producer inventory levels rema

51、in high,Prices in China closer to the upper end of cost curveBHK pulp cost curvethere is little incentive for pulp buyers to restock, but rather live “hand-to-mouth”800700600500400Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19BHK, imports from S America - USD/tBHK (domestic) - RMB/t - RHS6,5006,0005,5005,0004,5004,

52、0003,5003,000600Cash cost (USD/t)Cash cost (USD/t)0010203040Cumulative capacity (mt)Source:RISI,HSBCSource: RISI,HSBCDue to the pulp destocking efforts by paper producers, predominantly in China, pulp inventories at the consumer (pulp buyer) level are below average, based on anecdotal evidence and f

53、eedback from our vast network of pulp producers (both listed and non-listed), consultants and paper producers, among others. Given this, there is a possibility of a sharp increase in demand/prices if/when Chinese buyers return to the market and re-stock. However, as long as inventory levels at the p

54、orts and producers remain high, there is little incentive for pulp buyers to restock, but rather continue to live “hand-to-mouth”.We expect a return to normalized demand and a drawdown in inventory over the next 12 months or so, though we note this largely depends on HSBCs above consensus 6.6% and 6

55、.5% China GDP forecasts in 2019e and 2020e, respectively, combined with our view of a deal with regards to the US-China trade issues. Continued drawn out trade tensions would likely mean a slower-than-expected increase in pulp prices, though we think cost support levels would ultimately hold even in

56、 thatscenario.Medium-term outlook remains positiveHistorically, BHK pulp prices have experienced a sharp decline ahead of significant supply additions. In the near term, there is no significant capacity addition planned. One positive angle of this recent correction in pulp prices, is that no new pro

57、jects are likely to be announced in this environment. MAPA to be the only one in 2Q21, and is smaller, and thats probably it for the next 4-5 years. The absence of any significant supply additions, supply discipline exhibited from producers and expectations of tissue capacity growth in China should

58、keep the market tight in the medium term.Pulp price forecasts (USD/t, FOEX Europe)in USD2019e2020e2021e2022e2023eRevised872844844800778Old950931831800778% change-8%-9%2%0%0%Source: HSBC estimatesto be in the in the be no new All is a and an end to We due to the US and a is HSBC Global Paper and Pulp

59、 Supply demand modelin mt201620172018e2019e2020e2021e2022e CAGR(2018e-2022e)Global PaperApparent ConsumptionPrinting & Writing100,17099,55098,39697,04696,65096,55896,188-0.6%Newsprint22,97821,28619,57318,59218,02817,38316,642-4.0%Tissue36,36137,83739,19740,94442,83344,56545,7043.9%Containerboard163,

60、200169,949171,409175,790181,324185,762189,9402.6%Others93,23795,12495,58096,66696,78098,606101,2281.4%Total415,946423,746424,155429,037435,614442,874449,7021.5%y-o-y change (%)1.1%1.9%0.1%1.2%1.5%1.7%1.5%GlobalProductionUnited States72,12072,34272,68974,02975,80077,07178,4651.9%Other W Europe63,0586