石油服务与设备：重生

1、Equity Research Americas | United StatesOilfield Services & EquipmentOilfield Services & EquipmentRebirth:SeparatingtheWheatfromtheChaffOil & Gas Equipment & Services | Sector ReviewIn conjunction with the ratings changes and earnings forecasts issued in this report, wehave publishedafullslidedeck(l

2、ink)outliningourviewontheOilfieldServicespaceandourstock- selection framework. Furthermore, we are rolling out unit economic models for landrigs, pressurepumping,andoffshorerigs.Last,wearerollingoutarefreshedandinteractiveproject- levelLNGequipmentmodel.Pleasereachouttotheresearchteamforanyofthesemo

3、dels. We have also created a video that summarizes our top picks and sector views here.RefreshingRatings,TargetPrices,andEstimatesacrossOFS.Inthisindustrynote, we are updating estimates and target prices across our coverage. We are downgrading RES and PTEN to Underperform from Neutral. We are downgr

4、ading NBR and NINE to Neutral from Outperform. Last, we are upgrading RNGR to Outperform from Neutral. We arealsoinitiatingonNEXwitha$6targetpriceandNeutralrating(linktoreport)following CJs (previously covered) merger with FRAC (previously uncovered). Our earnings forecasts and ratings contemplate F

5、Y20/21 US spending of -10%/-5% and international spending of +5%/+5%. Our 2020/2021 EBITDA forecast is on average 5%/10% below consensus (FactSet) across our coverage.StockSelectionImportantinLightofMacroHeadwinds.Givencontinuedheadwinds pressuring the US market in 2020 (E&P capital discipline and e

6、fficiencies, principally) coupled with continued (albeit modest and declining) growth in international markets against a macro backdrop seemingly fraught with risks, we favor high-quality (strong, persistent,andimprovingreturns)andlowleveragewithaninternational/offshorebentand a wide margin of safet

7、y. Our top picks are: Baker Hughes (Outperform), ProPetro (Outperform), and Diamond Offshore (Underperform).Time to Pay Attention Again. Taking a step back, we leverage our proprietary HOLT market-implied returns data to analyze the current state of OFS in its larger historical context. The long-ter

8、m CFROI for large-cap Oilfield Services is 8%. However, the OFS industry is coming off a capex super cycle (global upstream spending grew at a 14% CAGR from 2000 to 2014 vs its long-term median of 7%) that drove outsized corporate returns(10%)andanover-capitalizationofglobalservicecapacityfromwhicht

9、heindustry is still recovering. However, according to our HOLT team, large-cap OFS is currently discounting 6% CFROI, a 200bps discount to the long-term median. We see this repricing of the sector as a necessary, but insufficient clearing event to make the space investable. Given the aforementioned

10、macro headwinds, we are not out of the woods yet. But it is time to pay attention again to a sector that has been strongly out of favor for the better part of the past five years.Valuation.Wearechangingourvaluationframeworkfromamultiples-basedTP (EV/EBITDA) to a DCF for our coverage universe.For a f

11、ull picture of our analysis of the Oilfield Services sector, please see our slide deck here.Research AnalystsJacob Lundberg212 325 6785 HYPERLINK mailto:jacob.lundberg jacob.lundbergRadi Sultan, CFA212 538 8137 HYPERLINK mailto:radi.sultan radi.sultanDISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CO

12、NTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of inter

13、est that couldFigure 1: OFS Ratings/Material Changes SummaryCredit Suisse OFS Relaunch Dec 2019 - Ratings / Material Target ChangesRatings ChangesCompanyTickerNew RatingOld RatingNew TPOld TPNew Old EBITDA ($M) EBITDA ($M)NaborsNBRNeutralOutperform$2.00$3.25$793$889Nine Energy ServicesNINENeutralOut

14、perform$7.00$12.00$97$129Patterson-UTIPTENUnderperformNeutral$6.50$11.00$439$576RPCRESUnderperformNeutral$3.50$5.50$121$181Ranger Energy ServicesRNGROutperformNeutral$8.00$7.00$46$56InitiationsCompanyTickerNew RatingOld RatingNew TPOld TPNew EBITDA ($M)NexTier Oilfield Solutions NEX$6.00Estimate Cha

15、ngesCompanyTickerNew RatingOld RatingNew TPOld TPNew Old EBITDA ($M) EBITDA ($M)FTSI InternationalFTSINeutralNeutral$1.50$5.00$84$128NCS MultistageNCSMOutperformOutperform$3.00$4.00$13$23Noble CorpNENeutralNeutral$1.75$2.75$304$350Mammoth Energy ServicesTUSKNeutralNeutral$1.50$4.00$35$59Baker Hughes

16、BKROutperformOutperform$28.00$28.00$3,440$3,469Diamond OffshoreDOUnderperformUnderperform$4.50$5.00$88$109HalliburtonHALOutperformOutperform$22.00$27.00$3,665$3,947Helmerich & PayneHPNeutralNeutral$40.00$52.00$628$706National Oilwell VarcoNOVNeutralNeutral$23.00$22.00$956$957ProPetroPUMPOutperformOu

17、tperform$14.00$15.00$388$361TransoceanRIGOutperformOutperform$8.50$10.00$1,040$1,094SchlumbergerSLBNeutralNeutral$36.00$42.00$6,641$7,163SolarisSOIOutperformOutperform$13.00$17.00$90$126ValarisVALOutperformOutperform$10.00$10.00$344$452CactusWHDOutperformOutperform$34.00$35.00$223$218Select Energy S

18、ervicesWTTROutperformOutperform$9.00$10.00$166$192Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesNaborsIndustries,Ltd.Downgrading to NeutralNBROil & Gas Equipment & ServicesDowngrading to Neutral on Liquidity Risk. We downgrade NBR to Neutral (from Outperform) on liquidity risk. NBRs L48 business has

19、outperformed peers and we like the intl exposure. However, our liquidity analysis suggests significant risk in the 2023 timeframe, concerns about which we fear could pressure the stock in the interim period. We lower our FY20/FY21 EBITDA to $793M/$771M (from $889M/$944M) and our target price to $2 (

20、from $3.25) based on our long-term DCF and our normalized land rig assumptions. This implies 4.5x 2020 EV/EBITDA.LiquiditySuggestsBaseCaseIsManageable,BearCaseChallenging.In our base case, we see a max shortfall of $1B in 23 dealt with through revolver renegotiation and one-plus new debt issue(s). W

21、e believe this should be manageable. In our bull case, weseeamaxshortfallof$500Min23dealtwiththrougharevolverrenegotiation/extension. This is our only scenario that does not require debt issuance. In our bear case, we see a max shortfall of $1.5B in 2023. This scenario requires a renegotiated revolv

22、er and an incremental two to three debt issuances. This is the most concerning scenario and the risk that pushes us to the sidelines.Outperforming Peers in L48 on Favorable Mix. NBRs L48 business has been outperformingthatofitspeersfromanactivityandprofitabilityimprovementperspective over the past y

23、ear. This is driven in part by favorable customer mix (more large E&Ps and IOCs)andinpartbyafavorablebasinmix(lessexposuretounderperformersliketheMid- Conandmoreexposuretomorestablebasins).Weexpectthismix-drivenoutperformance to continue into 2020 where we see more stable activity from larger operat

24、ors in best-in- class basins.LoweringEstimatesonRevisedActivityForecast.WerateNBRNeutralwitha$2TP (assumes normalized US land dayrates of $25K and 70% utilization) in line with what is reflected in the stock at current levels. We lower our FY20/21 EBITDA forecast to$793M/$771M (from $889M/$944M) on

25、the back of our revised activity forecast.Valuation. We are changing our valuation framework from a multiples-based TP (EV/EBITDA) to a DCF for our coverage universe. We run a DCF through 2023 assuming a 7.20% real discount rate.Risks: (1) potential liquidity crunch on bear case; (2) oil prices; (3)

26、 energy alternatives outsideofhydrocarbons,(4)timingofarecoveryintheUSlandrigmarket;(5)timingofa recovery in intl markets, (6) technology obsolescence; and (6) ability to push price.Target price (12M, US$)2.00NeutralVPreviousratingPrevious target price (12M, US$)3.25Price (29 Nov 19, US$)2.06weekpri

27、cerange4.01 - 1.56Market cap (US$ m)857.40Enterprise value (US$ m)3,944V = Stock Considered Volatile (see Disclosure Appendix)Research AnalystsJacob Lundberg212 325 6785 HYPERLINK mailto:jacob.lundberg jacob.lundbergRadi Sultan, CFA212 538 8137 HYPERLINK mailto:radi.sultan radi.sultanShare price per

28、formanceFinancial and valuation metricsYearFinancial and valuation metricsYear12/18A12/19E12/20E12/21EEPS (CS adj.) (US$)-1.23-1.40-1.12-1.21Prev. EPS (US$)-1.03-0.42-0.27Revenue (US$ m)3,057.63,094.53,159.53,168.6EBITDA (US$ m)758.7803.7793.4771.0P/OCF (x)1.3EV/EBITDA (current)5.2Net debt (US$ m)3,

29、1393,0862,9262,787Number of shares (m)416.22IC (current,US$ m)6,293.87 Net debt (Next Qtr., US$ m)3,086.3Dividend (current, US$)0.04Net debt/tot eq (Next Qtr.,%)115.8Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimatesQuarterlyEPSQ1Q2Q3Q42018A-0.29-0.39-0.31-0.252019E-0.36-0.40-0.33-0.322020E-0.

30、26-0.29-0.29-0.29Nabors Industries,Ltd. (NBR)Analyst:JacobLundbergIncome Statement12/18A12/19E12/20E12/21ERevenue (US$ m)3,057.63,094.53,159.53,168.6EBITDA (US$ m)759804793771Depr. & amort.(867)Income Statement12/18A12/19E12/20E12/21ERevenue (US$ m)3,057.63,094.53,159.53,168.6EBITDA (US$ m)759804793

31、771Depr. & amort.(867)(874)(893)(893)EBIT (US$)(108)(71)(100)(122)Net interest exp(227)(204)(191)(197)PBT (US$)(390)(291)(291)(320)Income taxes22(127)(50)(50)Profit after tax(368)(419)(341)(370)Minorities(44)(76)(57)(57)Net profit (US$)(413)(495)(398)(427)Reported net income (US$)(413)(495)(398)(427

32、)Other NPAT adjustments0000Adjusted net income(413)(495)(398)(427)Cash Flow12/18A12/19E12/20E12/21EEBIT(108)(71)(100)(122)Net interest(227)(204)(191)(197)Change in working capital(216)0(78)4Cash flow from operations326525500553CAPEX(459)(400)(325)(400)Free cashflow to the firm(133)125175153Acquisiti

33、ons(21)(3)00Divestments0000Cash flow from investments(367)(367)(325)(400)Net share issue(/repurchase)579(0)00Dividends paid(87)(45)(14)(14)Changes in Net Cash/Debt55252161139Balance Sheet (US$)12/18A12/19E12/20E12/21EAssetsCash & cash equivalents448266317478Account receivables756645725716Other curre

34、nt assets224184184184Total current assets1,5941,2861,4321,583Total fixed assets5,4684,9854,4173,923Investment securitiesTotal assets7,8547,0046,5556,212LiabilitiesTotal current liabilities832695739731Total liabilities4,6994,3394,2194,234Shareholder equity3,1062,5762,2471,888Total liabilities and equ

35、ity7,8547,0046,5556,212 Netdebt3,1393,0862,9262,787 Per share12/18A12/19E12/20E12/21ENo. of shares (wtd avg)339356356356CS adj. EPS(1.23)(1.40)(1.12)(1.21)Prev. EPS (US$)-(1.03)(0.42)(0.27)Dividend (US$)0.260.130.040.04 Free cash flowpershare(0.39)0.350.490.43 Company BackgroundNaborsIndustriesLtd.i

36、salanddrillingcontractorandlandwell-servicing and workover contractor in US & Canada. The company marketed approximately550landdrillingrigsforoilandgaslanddrillingoperations in US 48 states, Canada, South America etc. Blue/Grey SkyScenarioOur Blue SkyScenario(US$)(from 7.00)3.00Our blue sky valuatio

37、n for NBR is $3. This implies a 6x 2020 EV/EBITDA multiple on our $793M 2020 EBITDA forecast. Our $3 blue sky valuation assumes long-term high spec land rig dayrates of $30k/d.Our Grey SkyScenario(US$)(from 0.25)0.50Our grey sky valuation for NBR is $0.5. This implies a 4x 2020 EV/EBITDA multiple on

38、 our $793M 2020 EBITDA forecast. Our $0.5 grey sky valuation assumes long-term high spec land rig dayrates of$20k/d.Earnings12/18A12/19E12/20E12/21EShare price performanceSales growth (%)0.3EBIT growth (%)63.834.8(41.6)(22.5)Net profit growth (%)12.8(20.1)19.6(7.2)EPS growth (%)26.8(13.7)19.8(7.2)EB

39、ITDA margin (%)24.826.025.124.3EBIT margin (%)(3.5)(2.3)(3.2)(3.9)Pretax margin (%)(12.7)(9.4)(9.2)(10.1) Netmargin(%)(13.5)(16.0)(12.6)(13.5) ValuationEV/Sales (x)ValuationEV/Sales (x)12/18A1.3112/19E1.2712/20E1.2012/21E1.15EV/EBITDA (x)5.2EV/EBIT (x)(36.9)(55.9)(37.9)(29.8)P/E (x)(1.7)(1.5)(1.8)(1

40、.7)Price to book (x)1.110.4(2.6)(1.1) Assetturnover0.5 Returns12/18A12/19E12/20E12/21EROE stated-return on (%)(39.8)(137.4)369.489.4 ROIC (%)(1.6)(1.8)(2.2)(3.0) Gearing12/18A12/19E12/20E12/21ENet debt/equity (%)99.5115.8125.3140.9 Interest coverageratio(X)(0.5)(0.3)(0.5)(0.6) Quarterly EPS

41、Q1Q2Q3Q42018A-0.29-0.39-0.31-0.252019E-0.36-0.40-0.33-0.322020E-0.26-0.29-0.29-0.29 Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimates LayingOutLiquidity;TightnessBeginsin2020.NBRcurrentlyhas$419Mincash and short-term investments, of which $273M is cash held by the SANAD JV, leaving cash avail

42、able to NBR today at $146M. NBR has two revolvers, the 2012 revolver with$666M of total capacity expiring in July of 2020 (3.86% weighted avg. interest rate), and the 2018 revolver with a total capacity of $1.3B expiring October 2023 (with a spring forward provision to July 2022 if the Jan 23s are n

43、ot fully repaid). Including the available cash and both revolvers puts NBRs liquidity today at $1.6B ($146M cash, $211M on 12 Revolver, and $1.25B on 18 Revolver), which drops to just under $800M at the end of next year under our assumptions of: (1) FCF of +$38M/+$175M in 4Q19/FY20,repayment of the

44、Sep 20 maturity, and (3) rolling of the 12 revolver balance into the newrevolveronexpiration.Underthisscenario(onourcurrentestimates)NBRthenenters 2021 with $800M of liquidity and $640M of debt due in Sep 21 and FCF of +$121M pushing liquidity below $300M at year-end 2021. We would expect NBR to loo

45、k to issue securedorguaranteeddebtpriorto2021tobolsterliquidity(secureddebtcapacityofjust over $500M). IllustrativeScenarioAnalysis.Werunthreedayratescenariosandsimplified EBITDA/FCF/Liquidity Bridge: (1) our base case assumes daily US margins of$10.3k/$9.8k in FY20/21 escalating to $15.2k by FY24 w

46、ith daily international margins of $11.8k/$11.8k escalating to $15k by FY24, (2) our bull case assumes +$3k/d of incremental pricing (vs base case) for the US/International for every year through 2024, and (3) our bear case assumes -$3k/d of incremental pricing (vs base case) for the US/Internationa

47、l for every year through 2024. To bridge our illustrative EBITDA to FCF, we assume annualized fixed charges of $650M consisting of: $200M of interest expense,$350M of maintenance capex, and $100M of cash taxes (& no change to WC). Under all of the following scenarios, we assume NBR does not proactiv

48、ely address the Jan 23 maturity and the revolver balance comes due in Jul 22. Under all three scenarios, NBR would require at least an extension/renegotiation of the revolver in 2023. Our bull case is theonlyscenariowhereanewrevolveristheonlycapitalstructureadjustmentneededand our bear case is the o

49、nly scenario where the funding shortfall exceeds available liquidity assuming the 18 revolver size is unchanged on expiration.Figure2:IllustrativeEBITDABullvsBasevsBearCasesvsConsensus20202021202220232024Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Scenario1(BaseCase):Underthisscenario,NetDebttoEBI

50、TDA(NTM)afteradjusting for SANAD cash sits at 4.3x/4.5x on FY20/FY21 and does not reach sub 2x on an LTMbasisuntil2024.Themaximumcumulativefundingshortfalloccursin2023andis$1B, which would likely be met by a combination of a revolver renegotiation and at least 1new debt issue (with the non-refinance

51、d portion presumably being rolled onto a new revolver).Inourview,theleverage/liquidityoutlookisverymanageableunderthisscenario. Scenario 2 (Bull Case): Under this scenario, Net Debt to EBITDA (NTM) after adjusting for SANAD cash sits at 3.8x/3.8x on FY20/21 reaching sub 2x on an LTM basis in 2022 an

52、d under 1x by 2024. The maximum cumulative funding gap would be $500M in 2023 and could likely be met by the renegotiation/extension of the revolver. Note: this is theonlyscenariowhereasimpleextensionoftherevolverwouldbeenoughtobridge liquiditythrough2024withouttheneedforadditionaldebtissuance. Scen

53、ario 3 (Bear Case): While this scenario is by far the most pessimistic, we still give NBR the benefit of a substantial EBITDA ramp post 2021 to $1B in 2023, 35% higher than 2020 base case EBITDA. Under this scenario, Net Debt to EBITDA (NTM) after adjusting for SANAD cash sits at 5.0 x/5.2x and reac

54、hes 2.2x on an LTM basis in 2024. The maximum cumulative funding gap occurs in 2023 and is $1.5B. We view this as the most concerning scenario, as NBR would likely need a new (extended) revolverand2-3incrementaldebtissuancestomeetitsmaturityschedule.Note:thisistheonly scenariowherethefundingshortfal

55、lexceedsavailableliquidity.Figure3:NBRLiquidityAnalysisSimplified Illustrative - Starting Cash + ST Investments (3Q19)$419Max Revolver Draw ($M)Less: SANAD Cash-$273$1,247.0Cash Available to NBR Today$146Debt Repayment4Q19202020212022202320242018 Revolving Credit Facility* 5.00% Notes - September 20

56、204.625% Notes - September 20215.50% Notes - January 20232936384555775.10% Notes - September 20230.75% Notes - January 2024337467Total Annual Debt Repayments0293638455914467Cumulative Debt Due (incl. Revolver)$0$293$931$1,386$2,300$2,767Interest Expense50200200200200200Maintenance Capex87.5350350350

57、350350Cash Taxes25100100100100100Fixed Charges162.5650650650650650*Assumes 12 Revolver Rolled into 18 Revolver & no Refi of Jan 2023 (Spring Fwd of Revolver to Jul 22 from Oct 23)Scenario 1 - Base Case4Q1920202021202220232024International Daily Margin11,50611,79811,78111,76715,00015,000US Daily Marg

58、in11,54610,3129,79314,44514,92415,227EBITDA2017937719771,2071,278FCF39143121327557628Cash Balance Available to NBR (end)1843284497761,3331,961Cum. Revolver Debt + Principal0(293)(931)(1,386)(2,300)(2,767)Cum. Funding Surplus/(Shortfall)18434(482)(610)(966)(805)Scenario 2 - Bull Case4Q192020202120222

59、0232024International Daily Margin11,50614,79814,78114,76718,00018,000US Daily Margin11,65213,37712,87916,80117,31517,603EBITDA2039068901,0831,2981,378FCF40256240433648728Cash Balance Available to NBR (end)1864416811,1141,7622,490Cum. Revolver Debt + Principal0(293)(931)(1,386)(2,300)(2,767)Cum. Fund

60、ing Surplus/(Shortfall)186148(249)(272)(537)(277)Scenario 3 - Bear Case4Q1920202021202220232024International Daily Margin11,5068,7988,7818,76712,00012,000US Daily Margin11,6527,3776,87910,80111,31511,603EBITDA2036886608271,0561,117FCF403810177406467Cash Balance Available to NBR (end)1862242344118171