通往新兴市场之桥：赢下战争

1、Bridge to EM: Winning the battleGlobal Equity StrategyThe EM-DM GDP growth differential is widening, and we expect 70% of global growth to come from EM by2030Bridge to EM: Winning the battleGlobal Equity StrategyWe at DM industries the for EM are and are not HSBC analysts profile 27 DM companies act

2、ive in EM from Renault and LVMH, to Apple and Schneiderto at DM EM of of DM EM EM is DM Our 14 February report, HYPERLINK /R/10/WGVlMngjqMcB The bridge HYPERLINK /R/10/WGVlMngjqMcB to EM, highlighted DM corporates with significant EM revenues. They are attractive vehicles for EM equity exposure, at

3、valuation discounts to EM-listed peers, despite DMs generally higher cost of capital, trading liquidity, and governance standards.We mine our Who sells where database to look at competitive dynamics across 24 industries between DM and EM corporates. HSBC sector analysts also, separately, highlight 2

4、7 different examples of DM companies within their coverage that are active in EM. EM GDP growth is strengthening vs DM, creating opportunities for DM corporates. Not all are willing or able to grasp this, and competition from EM corporates is high. We divide DM companies into four groups:EM of EM to

5、The up and coming industries gaining significant EM share off of a lowbase include Insurance, Health Care Equipment, Capital Goods, and Diversified Financials, and stocks like Medtronic, Prudential, and WaltDisney.that are still to crack the code, high but falling market asEMcompetitioninclude&Servi

6、ces,and,toalesserFood&Staples,asasstockslikeAppleandDM only have low and stable EM revenue share; includes Banks, Utilities, and Real Estate. Exceptions include Vodafone and Telefonica withinTelecoms.We present four stock screens including our EM conquerors screen (table 5) which highlights HSBC Buy

7、-rated stocks with significant and rising EM revenue share, and a broader sector-neutral screen (pg 13) of DM stocks with rising EM exposure. These stocks have outperformed MSCI World, but trade at an average 18% PE valuation discount. We highlight (pg 11) DM countries above average EM led by Singap

8、ore, Hong Kong, Israel, and By contrast, the US is amongthosewiththelowestrevenueexposuretoEM,whileJapanhasincreasedthe most in recentyears.15 April 2019Equity Strategy & EquitiesEquity Strategy & EquitiesGlobalBen LaidlerGlobal Equity Strategist HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK mailto:ben.m.lai

9、dler ben.m.laidler+1 212 525 3460Alastair Pinder, CFA Equity StrategistHSBC Securities (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK mailto:alastair.pinder alastair.pinder+1 212 525 4131Amit Shrivastava* AnalystHSBC Securities and (India) Private Limited HYPERLINK mailto:amit1.shrivastavahsbc.co.in amit1.shrivastavahsbc.co.

10、in+91 80 4555 2759Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andis not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRAregulationsDisclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part

11、of it.Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) IncView HSBC Global Researchat: HYPERLINK / Competing for EMThe EM-DM GDP growth differential is widening, and we expect 70% of global growth to come from EM by2030We look at which DM industries are winning the competition forEM growth, which are losing,

12、 and which are not eventryingHSBC analysts profile 27 DM companies active in EM - from Renault and LVMH, to Apple and SchneiderElectricWho is winning the battle for EM?EM growth leading in the short and longer termOur Bridge to EM series looks at the corporate connections across the DM-EM divide. De

13、veloped market corporates generate nearly half of their revenues from outside their home markets, but only 12% is specifically disclosed as coming from EM (source: company reports). By contrast, EM corporates generate less than 30% of their revenues from outside their home markets, and most of that

14、is from neighboring markets, rather than from developed markets (source: company reports).EMdynamicsarebothintheshortandterm.EMGDPisforecastto slow this year to 4.3%, to but the differential DM, a sharper to 1.6% is Longer term, that over the coming or so, roughly 70% of growth come from currently d

15、escribe emerging (see HYPERLINK /R/10/sQRpslJxvDYp?docid=1104632 The world in 2030, 25 September 2018). As countriesdevelop,thenaturebecomemoredomesticallyorientedsuchasareseeinginexpectsEMsshareofglobaltorisethe 27% in 2010 to by2020.Recent economic data has been soft, ledbyDM2. and longer-term opp

16、ortunities in EM aresignificantPMIs PMIs Developed Markets Emerging MarketsShareofglobalconsumptionEmerging Markets36%Developed Markets27%64%16%73%202084%2010565452504846Jan-10Jan-12Jan-14Jan-16Jan-18Source: MSCI, Refinitiv Datastream, Bloomberg, HSBC2000Source: MSCI, Refinitiv Datastream, Bloomberg

17、, HSBCEmerging markets are accounting for a much larger proportion of globalgrowthGlobal GDP growth contributionEM contributed 54% toGlobal GDP growth contributionEM contributed 54% toglobalgrowth, China27%ChinaEM ex-ChinaDM4.03.02.01.00.0-1.0-2.0-3.01980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

18、 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018Source: MSCI, Refinitiv Datastream, HSBCDM stocks with EM exposure are an attractive way into EMDeep-dive on competitive dynamics in EM, analyzing USD11trn of revenuesOwning EM through DMOur 14 February report highlighted DM corporates with significa

19、nt EM revenue exposure (Laidler, HYPERLINK /R/10/WGVlMngoGpEG Global Equity Strategy: The bridge to EM). We believe they provide an attractive way to gain EM equity exposure, trading close to a historically high valuation discount to EM-listed peers despite DMs generally higher cost of capital, bett

20、er trading liquidity, and typically superior corporate governance.However, the path into EM is not always easy. There have been plenty of examples over the last few years of companies that have tried to capture EM growth but have failed to make the venture fruitful. But companies that can crack the

21、code could tap into a rapidly growing revenue stream.In this report, we provide a deeper analysis of our proprietary who sells where data series (for background see Laidler, HYPERLINK /R/10/M9QRdNtjqMcB Who sells where, 23 August 2018) to uncover the competitive dynamics across 24 industry groups of

22、 DM corporates operating in emerging markets. In particular, we identify the sectors, countries and companies that are ultimately succeeding in the emerging market space by not only growing revenue, but being able to capture marketshare.In order to measure the market share of EM revenue captured, we

23、 calculate the sales generated from companies in the MSCI ACWI that the companies have disclosed as originating from EM. Of course, this is by no means perfect. For one, the revenue from these constituents will not cover the full potential within EM and therefore our analysis will likely under-estim

24、ate the EM market size and over-estimate DMs market share. Second, corporate disclosures of revenue generation are often somewhat patchy and some companies do not break down their geographical exposures. Nevertheless, despite these shortfalls, we do believe it can be a useful proxy. After all, the t

25、otal revenue of companies in the MSCI ACWI in 2017 was over USD40trn, equivalent to roughly 50% of global GDP, while revenue in EM was USD11trn, equivalent to 35% of theirGDP.DM industry group quest to capture EM revenue marketshareThe EM conquerorsHousehold ProductsThe EM conquerorsHousehold Produc

26、tsSemiconductorsCom ServicesCons. DurablesCons.ServicesPharmaAutosMedia (+10%)MaterialsThe up and comingHealth Care EquipCapital Goods Div. FinancialsUtilitiesReal EstateTelecomsInsuranceThe DM onlyRetailingBanksEnergyplesTransportationFood & BevcrackoftwareFood & StaTech HardwareSthecode The still

27、trying to80%MSCI ACWI EM revenue market share 201770%MSCI ACWI EM revenue market share 2017-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%Change in MSCI ACWI EM revenue market share 2015-2017: DM Industry GroupsSource: MSCI, Refinitiv Datastream, HSBCWinning the battle for EMFrom conquerors to new kids in townIn chart 4, we

28、 highlight the results at the industry group level, plotting the aggregate EM market share on the y-axis and the change in market share between 2015 and 2017 on the x-axis. This analysis allows us to categorize the developed market industries into four broad groups:The EM conquerors: Those DM indust

29、ries with high and rising EM revenueshareThe up and coming: Those DM industries gaining EM revenue share off of a lowbaseThe still trying to crack the code: Those with high but falling EM revenue marketshareThe DM only: Those DM industries with low and stable EM revenue marketshare1. The EM conquero

30、rsThe EM conquerors are the industry groups in developed markets that have already captured a sizeable share of the EM revenue pie. These include Semiconductors, Household Products, Consumer Durables and Autos. In these cases, they can provide examples of what is required for DM companies to succeed

31、 in EM. In the case of Autos and Semiconductors, it has been innovation and technological expertise over local rivals which has certainly been a key factor.However, the risk is that local manufacturers quickly improve their skills and provide more competition going forward. For Consumer Durables and

32、 to a certain extent Household Products brand value is vital, particularly for Luxury Goods companies in China.EM conquerors stockscreenCompanyBBGtickerCountrySectorMcapEM as % of Chg in (USDm)totalrevmktshareRatingShare priceTarget priceCcyAnalystPrudentialPRU LNUKFinancials56,83928.23.17%Buy16.812

33、2.40GBPKailesh Mistry*, CFAGlencore PlcGLEN LNUKMaterials59,83542.60.95%Buy3.324.10GBPDerryn Maade*LVMHMC FPFranceCons Disc190,46827.90.67%Buy336.05375.00EURAntoine Belge*KeringKER FPFranceCons Disc75,12637.50.57%Buy530.10600.00EURAntoine Belge*Melco ResortsMLCO USHong KongCons Disc12,40899.30.50%Bu

34、y25.1032.50USDCharlene Liu*RenaultRNO FPFranceCons Disc20,63027.00.10%Buy62.1674.00EURHorst Schneider*Saint GobainSGO FPFranceIndustrials21,53121.40.08%Buy35.1040.00EURChristian Korth*Investec plcINVP LNUKFinancials4,27242.80.07%Buy4.816.80GBPHenry Hall*SandvikSAND SSSwedenIndustrials22,16221.90.07%

35、Buy164.10195.00SEKMichael Hagmann*SembCorp IndustriesSCI SPSingaporeIndustrials3,57424.10.06%Buy2.753.41SGDSomesh Agarwal*Erste Group BankEBS AVAustriaFinancials16,58851.50.04%Buy34.3943.00EURJohannes Thormann*Temenos AGTEMN SWSwitzerlandIT10,95533.70.04%Buy153.35170.00CHFAntonin Baudry*UOBUOB SPSin

36、gaporeFinancials32,88335.80.03%Buy26.5034.60SGDKar Weng Loo*OCBCOCBC SPSingaporeFinancials36,77737.60.03%Buy11.7214.30SGDKar Weng Loo*Arkema SAAKE FPFranceMaterials7,77325.80.02%Buy90.56112.00EURMartin Evans*Minth Group Limited425 HKHong KongCons Disc4,09268.20.02%Buy27.1029.30HKDTracy Li*, CFAWeir

37、GroupWEIR LNUKIndustrials5,70340.60.01%Buy16.8920.00GBPTarek Soliman*, CFASource: MSCI, Refinitiv Datastream, Bloomberg, HSBC Prices as at close on 8 April 2019* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsErwan RambourgG

38、lobal Co-Head of Consumerand RetailResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK mailto:erwanrambourg erwanrambourg+1 212 525 8393Horst Schneider* Equity AnalystHSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG HYPERLINK mailto:horst.schneiderhsbc.de horst.schneiderhsbc.de+49 211 910 3285* Employed by a non-US affiliate

39、of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEM conquerors stock screenIn the table below we provide a stock screen which highlights some of the specific EM conquerors. These are companies in the MSCI World index that have EM revenue greater than 20% of

40、 total, have seen their market share of EM revenue in their industry group increase between 2015 and 2017, are Buy-rated by HSBC, and which our analysts have published research reports in the last 90 days.Below, our sector analysts highlight some industry group examples.Luxury: LVMHAs consumers in k

41、ey EMs like China become wealthier, they tend to look for status symbols that reflect this new wealth. A key status symbol for Chinese consumers is luxury, and Chinese consumers have become increasingly relevant to the luxury space over the past two decades. As the biggest luxury group globally and

42、the owner of many of the leading brands around the world, LVMH (MC FP, EUR332.00, Buy) stands out among peers. The company has been able to gain market share in EM due to strong brand equity and best-in-class management and notably the resurgence of interest in the Louis Vuitton brand (c49% of group

43、 EBIT) over the past three years, particularly in key emerging markets like China. Larger groups like LVMH have been investing significantly in CRM, data analytics and social media which allows them to influence consumer choices through more effective consumer engagement.Autos: RenaultRenault (RNO F

44、P, EUR61.70, Buy) is generating c40% of its unit sales in emerging markets. This even excludes China, which we think is important since China has already turned into a developed market when it comes to car sales. Renaults largest markets in EM are Russia and Brazil. Renault is specializing in cheap

45、affordable cars in emerging markets. Its so-called entry range is offered at a price point of below USD10,000, and in some cases even around USD5,000 (Kwid model). Renault has grown in EM by selective acquisitions the Lada brand in Russia is one example. After having done a restructuring, the Lada b

46、rand business was in 2018 more profitable than the average of the rest of the world (in terms of clean EBIT margin). On the negative side, Renaults sales have become more volatile with heavier EM exposure. The company had to stop selling cars in Iran and is currently suffering from FX depreciation i

47、n Turkey and Argentina.The up andcomingMichael Hagmann*Global Co-Head of Industrials ResearchHSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:michael.hagmann michael.hagmann+44 20 7991 2405The up and coming are industry groups which have a relatively low EM market share but are starting to increase it (bottom right o

48、f chart 4). These include Insurance, Capital Goods, Diversified Financials, Materials and Health Care Equipment. These are also the industries which could contain companies that could benefit the most from EM exposure given they have the possibility of stronger growth compounded with rising market s

49、hare.Below, our sector analysts highlight some industry group examples.Capital Goods: Schneider ElectricSchneider Electric (SU FP, EUR72.68, Buy) is a global supplier of low and medium voltage equipment, secure power and automation products and software. It has been winning market share in China bec

50、ause management invested in distribution, and becausemanagement* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/ qualified pursuant to FINRAregulationsDhruv Gahlaut*, CFACo-head of European Insurance ResearchHSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:dhruv.gahlaut dhruv.gahlaut+44

51、20 7991 6728* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is notregistered/ qualified pursuant to FINRAregulationsDerryn Maade*Analyst, Metals & Mining HSBC Securities (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd HYPERLINK mailto:derryn.maade derryn.maade+27 11 676 4519* Employed by a non-US affili

52、ate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/ qualified pursuant to FINRAregulationsdeveloped a product offering that was suitable for the different local markets in China. Pursuing a similar strategy across EM, its sales in EM now account for more than 40% of revenue.Insurance: Vienna, Prudent

53、ial, CNP and Swiss ReAmong the developed market insurers, Vienna Insurance (VIG AV, EUR23.80, Hold) currently has the highest earnings contribution from emerging markets (mainly due to its CEE exposure) followed by Prudential (PRU LN, GBp1,663.00, Buy) mainly Asia and CNP (CNP FP, EUR20.64, Hold) (L

54、atAm). Insurers have been looking at expanding their EM exposure organically and via bolt on deals. For instance, Zurich Insurance (ZURN SW, CHF316.00, Buy; EM earnings are c13% of group earnings) announced the acquisition of QBEs LatAm operations as well Adira Insurance in Indonesia during 2018.Swi

55、ss Re SW, has long held the that the (headedbyChina,SEAsia,partsofLatAmandAfrica)accountformorethan50%ofin insurancemarketsinthelongprimarilyduetoandcriteria.the group had only limited access this through its as the majority of new business (being large bulk retail is only reinsured Swiss Re investe

56、d a significant amount of in primary insurance in China,SEAsia,AfricaandInthoseHighasdefinedbySwissRe), thegrouptoleading22%oftotalpremiumsgeneratedinAsiacontributedmorethanofinChinaremainsakeyofasit issettothelargestmarketinthebytheMaterials: GlencoreFor Metals and Mining, the period 2015-17 marked

57、 some important events. The industry entered a cyclical low driven by demand “collapsing” in China and commodity prices falling materially as a result. The miners share of EM revenue fell during the course of 2015 as China slowed, with revenue troughing at year-end and early 2016. As prices are an u

58、ncontrollable factor for the industry, the response for many companies was to restructure costs, stop dividends and cut capex to the bone to ensure survival.Following increased stimulus measures and the end to de-stocking in China during 2016, commodity prices began to recover and rose steadily into

59、 2017. This enabled some modest volume recovery and combined with rising prices is likely to have accounted for the sectors increase in revenue market share within EM. DM Materials winners such as Glencore (GLEN LN, GBp331, Buy) were arguably those which were hardest hit during the 2015 downturn due

60、 to relatively lower quality assets vs peers and higher gearing levels. Their recovery is likely to have been most pronounced among the peer group as a result. In addition, strong exposure to coal (and zinc also for GLEN) helped as both commodity prices more than doubled in the period.Richard Latz*A