全球行业手册：最佳全球股票观点

1、EQUITY STRATEGYGLOBALJanuary 2019BenDanielAlastairPinderandtheHSBCGlobalEquitySector HYPERLINK / Global Sector PlaybookOur best stock ideas globallyPlay video with Ben LaidlerDisclaimer & Disclosures: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analystcertifications in the Disclosure appen

2、dix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of itBE OF Executive SummaryOur best stock ideas globallyAverage 31% implied upside to target priceFour common themesOverall positive view of global equitiesWe for Buy in We for in to in We HYPERLINK /R/10/tGtGfjWoGpEG in 17 The 23 stocks our analysts c

3、hose have an average market cap of USD64bn, and average implied upside to target price of 31% more than double our forecast global equity index return of 13%. The universe has a slight premium P/E valuation, but significantly stronger earnings growth outlook, at 17%, and offers a 2.9% dividend yield

4、 in aggregate. The sectors range from agribusiness and autos, to shipping and tech and across 13 countries from US, UK, France, Germany and Switzerland in Developed Markets, to across the Emerging World, from Brazil to South Africa and India. Analysts highlight 3 reasons to own each stock and the up

5、coming catalysts. We have also included a screen of HSBC Reduce-rated stocks with the largest implied downside (see Appendix).Key common themes among the highlighted stocks include: Strength under pressure, with many commodity-sector companies delivering strong cash flows and shareholder returns, ev

6、en as product pricing is often under pressure. BP has a free cash flow breakeven below USD50/bbl Brent, Sasol should see a FCF pivot on Lake Charles completion, and iron-ore miner Vales premium product focus helps drive significant shareholder returns. Defense best offense, with and visibilitynolong

7、eratavaluation;adidasanpricedanddefensivestock; and at food Tesco; Vonovia real estate business model offers several growth options in stricter regulatoryenvironment. Digital opportunities broadening across sectors, with worlds largest Coke bottler Coca-Cola FEMSAs rollout of its digital platform ac

8、ross all core markets to boost returns; Germanys Wirecard seeing strong payments momentum and Fintech expansion not yet in guidance; and Samsung Electronics upside to a new product cycle, with 5G and foldable products. Self-help, with Switzerlands Sikas rerating potential in anticipation of Parex va

9、lue enhancement; the potential group-level restructuring at Hong Kongs CK Industries; tiremaker Michelin narrowing its profitability gap versus peers; the New Retail & O2O market opportunity at Alibaba.US ex EQUITY STRATEGY EQUITY STRATEGY GLOBALJanuary 20192HSBC best stock ideasNameBloomberg Ticker

10、CountryIndustryMarket Cap ADTV (USDm) (USDm) RatingCurrencyCurrent PriceTarget PriceImplied Upside1mormance3m 12m2019EPSg2019PE2019DY AnalystUnited States HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 CF Industries HoldingsCF USUnited States Chemicals10,196 155.7 BuyUSD44.1860.0035.85.4-12.89.422%24.02.7% Alexandre Falca

11、o HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Schlumberger LtdSLB USUnited States Energy Equipment61,942 607.5 BuyUSD44.7356.0025.218.2-23.4-41.40%26.94.5% Abhishek Kumar*Europe (exUK) HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 adidasADS GRGermanyTextiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods46,474171.5 BuyEUR204.00255.0025.07.0-0.819.717%20.71.8% Erwa

12、n Rambourg HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 Credit SuisseCSGN SWSwitzerlandCommercial Banks31,429155.3 BuyCHF12.2415.0022.511.7-6.9-33.036%9.82.4% Alevizos Alevizakos* HYPERLINK l _bookmark44 Deutsche BoerseDB1 GRGermanyDiversified Financial Services24,43579.1 BuyEUR113.25135.0019.26.8-0.614.524%16.92.5% Joh

13、annes Thormann* HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 LVMHMC FPFranceTextiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods145,467229.0 BuyEUR253.40325.0028.30.4-3.75.210%18.52.4% Antoine Belge* HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 MichelinML FPFranceAuto Components19,00276.8 BuyEUR93.00115.0023.74.2-9.0-31.012%8.94.6% Henning Cosman* HYPERLINK l

14、_bookmark14 SikaSIKA SWSwitzerlandConstruction Materials18,46879.4 BuyCHF129.70174.0034.25.811.0-6.523%22.51.9% John Fraser-Andrews* HYPERLINK l _bookmark57 VonoviaVNA GYGermanyRemd24,73964.6 BuyEUR42.0152.000.77%19.23.7% Thomas Martin* HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 WirecardWDI GRGermanySoftware21,047188.

15、4 BuyEUR149.85240.0060.26.2-19.236.033%35.30.2% Antonin Baudry*UnitedKingdom HYPERLINK l _bookmark35 Associated British FoodsABF LNUKFood Products24,02130.6 BuyGBP23.5132.50-18.40%17.42.0% Paul Rossington* HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 BPBP/ LNUKOil & Gas136,869223.3 BuyGBP5.236.3020.40.5-8.5-1.0-23%14.46.

16、3% Gordon Gray* HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 GlaxoSmithKlineGSK LNUKPharmaceuticals96,017158.7 BuyGBP14.9918.2021.41.0-0.89.03%12.75.4% Steve McGarry* HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 TescoTSCO LNUKFood & Staples Retailing28,37667.2 BuyGBP2.252.6518.017%15.42.2% David McCarthy*HongKong HYPERLINK l _bookmark54 CKI

17、nfrastructureHolding1038HKHong Kong ElectricUtilities20,73314.8 BuyUSD61.3574.00-% EvanLi*EM HYPERLINK l _bookmark49 Alibaba GroupBABA USChinaInternet Software & Services407,0252,982.1 BuyUSD157.02190.0021.014.79.9-14.4-3%44.90.0% Binnie Wong* HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 China State

18、Construction601668 CHChinaConstruction & Engineering37,04291.4 BuyRMB5.987.9032.1-2.123.5-23.127%5.43.7% Corey Chan* HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 Coca-Cola FemsaKOF USMexicoBeverages13,6115.9 BuyUSD64.7992.0042.010.56.2-13.315%18.30.3% Carlos Laboy HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 DP WorldDPW DUUAEMarine14,2163.0

19、 BuyUSD16.4029.2078.0-5.2-11.4-38.1-7%12.62.4% Nicholas Paton*, CFA HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 IndusInd BankIIB INIndiaCommercial Banks12,83157.7 BuyINR1516.901950.0028.6-7.5-5.4-9.752%24.40.6% Ravi Singh* HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 Samsung Electronics005930 KSKoreaSemiconductors227,137430.3 BuyKRW42300540

20、0027.78.7-4.0-15.2-11%7.23.4% Ricky Seo* HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 SasolSOL SJSouth AfricaOil & Gas18,99959.4 BuyZAR418.82600.0043.30.4-17.6-4.553%7.74.6% Sriharsha Pappu* HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 VALEVALE USBrazilMetals & Mining75,39643.7 BuyUSD14.6118.0023.211.0-3.430.988%7.25.7% Jonathan Brandt, CFA

21、Average64,44126330.85.6-3.0-5.417%17.62.9%Source: HSBC estimates, Refinitiv Datastream. Note: Pricing as of close 18 January 2019. Note data for Deutsche Boerse as of 22 January 2019 and data for Sika as of 23 January 2019* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not regi

22、stered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsContents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 ExecutiveSummary1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Global EquityStrategy4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Ourbottom-upideas7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Energy10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Integrated Oils: BP (BP/LN)11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Oilfiel

23、d Services: Schlumberger HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 (SLBUS)14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Materials16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Agribusiness: CF Industries(CFUS)17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Chemicals: Sasol(SOL SJ)19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Construction: Sika(SIKA SW)21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Metals & Mining: V

24、ale (VALEUS)23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Industrials25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Industrials: China State Construction HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Engineering(601668CH)26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Shipping: DP World (DPW DU)28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Consumer Discretionary30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Automotive

25、: Michelin(MLFP)31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 (MC33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 Sporting Goods: adidas (ADSGR)35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 Consumer Staples37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 Beverages: Coca-Cola FEMSA HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 (KOFUS)38 HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 Food Retail: Tesco (TSCOLN)40 HYPERLINK l

26、_bookmark36 AB HYPERLINK l _bookmark37 HealthCare44 HYPERLINK l _bookmark39 Health Care: GlaxoSmithKline HYPERLINK l _bookmark39 (GSKLN)45 HYPERLINK l _bookmark40 Financials47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark42 - SW) HYPERLINK l _bookmark43 Banks - EM: IndusInd Bank(IIBIN) HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 Exchanges: De

27、utsche Boerse HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 (DB1GR)53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark47 Payment: Wirecard(WDIGR)55 HYPERLINK l _bookmark48 InformationTechnology57 HYPERLINK l _bookmark50 Internet: Alibaba Group(BABAUS)58 HYPERLINK l _bookmark52 Semiconductors: Samsung HYPERLINK l _bookmark52 Electronics(005930KS)60

28、 HYPERLINK l _bookmark53 Utilities62 HYPERLINK l _bookmark55 CK HYPERLINK l _bookmark56 Real Estate65 HYPERLINK l _bookmark58 Real Estate: Vonovia(VN GY)66 HYPERLINK l _bookmark59 HSBC Reduce Rated HYPERLINK l _bookmark59 Stock Screen68 HYPERLINK l _bookmark60 Datapack70 HYPERLINK l _bookmark61 Rada

29、rMethodology77 HYPERLINK l _bookmark62 Disclosureappendix81 HYPERLINK l _bookmark63 Disclaimer85Global Equity StrategyWe think markets are overdiscounting growth risks. See 13% global equity upside for 2019Forecast double-digit earnings growth and see multiple expansion.Overweight barbell of US and

30、EM vs Europe ex UK value trapDefensive sectors served us well, but now lean-in to recent pullback, adding cyclicals. Some upside to capex, trade, debt concernsAging gracefullyMarkets have overdiscounted an easing business cycle, creating opportunitiesFocus on US and EM. Added to CyclicalsWe to in a

31、that is We to as is a With to A US a aThe US and EM are our overweight regions, both with the potential for robust earnings and attractive valuations currently. Japan is well-supported but there appear to be a lack of upside catalysts, and we see continued earnings risk and policy uncertainty in Eur

32、ope. Sector positioning remains broadly balanced given the late stage of the business cycle, with a healthy dose of defensives, alongside Energy and IT.US We add some cyclicality to sector positioning as we lean-in to the recent sell-offCountry allocationsUS in ACWI by We in to in to is our is as US

33、 set A of in US on We are on in in We as EM We are be VAT a is by in of in to the We UK Sector outlooka is in We a a in by a of in it is HSBC Global Sector RecommendationsSource: MSCI, Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimatesto in so a We in a We is We We is HSBC Global Sector RadarSource: HSBC.Industry

34、 group codes: ENE = Energy; AUT = Autos; BNK = Banks; CAP = Capital Goods; CDU = Consumer Durables; CMS = Commercial Services; CSV =Consumer Services; DIV =Diversified Financials; FBV = Food & Beverage; FRT = Food Retailing; HEQ = Health Care Equipment; HHP = Household Products; INS = Insurance; MAT

35、 = Materials; MED = Media; PHA =Pharma; RES = Real estate; RET = Retailing; SEM = Semiconductors; SFW = Software & Services; TCH= Tech Hardware; TEL = Telecoms; TPT = Transportation; UTL = Utilities Source: HSBCOur Global Radar (above) combines signals from investor sentiment, short-term dynamics an

36、d valuation to provide sector buy and sell recommendations.Key themes for 2019We also see three key themes in 2019 which we believe could shape market performance: An escalation in trade tensions could at least halve US earnings growth in 2019. However, exposed stocks are already trading at over a 2

37、5% discount, and we believe investors are overlooking progress being made elsewhere with EU-Japan and TPP deals coming into effect. Europe is the most sensitive region to trade concerns, not EM, in our view. Rising corporate leverage and higher funding costs are headwinds to earnings, and an increas

38、ing concern for investors at this late stage of the economic cycle. However, our proprietary leverage heat map shows the US well positioned versus RoW, with long maturities, fixed rates, and low short-term debt. Europe looks more exposed. US capex strength provides valuable revenue visibility, and u

39、pside risks to 2019, in our view, given above-trend GDP growth. Elsewhere, continued economic and political uncertainty may continue to depress capex in Europe. Tech has become an increasingly important receiver of capex spending, a structurally positive theme for the sector.Our bottom-up ideas HSBC

40、 analysts globally highlight their favorite large cap ideas (USD10bn or more): 23 stocks across 13 countries Average 31% implied upside to target; more than double the already significant 13% implied upside forecast for global equities The analysts identify potential catalysts that could drive the s

41、tocks higher. Average EPS growth 17% and dividend yield 2.9%Why buy these 24 investment ideasOn the following pages, HSBC analysts provide a twooverview for each company, giving a brief background of the business, three reasons they like the stock and identifying the potential catalysts to drive the

42、 stock prices higher. We provide a summary of this below:Energy HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 BP Oils, BP / LN; TP: GBp630): A transformation in costs efficiencytoarobustfreecashBrent.High freecashyieldstopotentialforupsidetocash HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Schlumberger (Oilfield Services, SLB US; Buy; TP: USD5

43、6.00): SLB is clearly a case of diversified growth at the right price with solid medium-term growth with 61% EPS growth 2018-2020e. Positive prospects in the international business and historically lowvaluations.Materials HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 CF Industries (Agribusiness, CF US; Buy; TP: USD60.00)

44、: A pure-play nitrogen companywellleveragedtothesectorrecovery.Weexpectcontinuedearningsmomentum which should drive solid cash generation and return of cash toshareholders. HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Sasol (Chemicals, SOL SJ; Buy; TP: ZAR600.00): Sasols free cash flow pivot looks imminent as its Lake C

45、harles cracker project reaches completion. Sasols plans to generate FCF of USD6p/sh by FY22 are worth waiting for, as it implies an 18% FCFyield. HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Sika (Construction Materials, SIKA SW; Buy; TP: CHF174.00): We believe a share re- rating is imminent with a standalone EBIT accel

46、eration in 2019e, Parex acquisition value enhancement and sustained structural salesgrowth. HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Vale (Metals & Mining, VALE US; Buy; TP: USD18.00): Brazils Vale is well positioned to capture value from increasing share of premium products, exposure to EV metals and improving ESG.

47、 Has good growth potential with attractive capital returns toshareholders.Industrials HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 CH; TP: We inbya HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 DP World (Shipping, DPW DU; Buy; TP: USD29.20): Global port operator trading at multiyear lows on 12M fwd EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples. Market concern

48、s focussed on change in strategy to become a trade-enabler, but recent acquisitions have beenbenign.Consumer Discretionary HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 ML TP: With to is in HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 LVMH(LuxuryGoods,MCFP;Buy;TP:EUR325.00):LVMHisnolongerata valuation premium to peers in spite of superior So

49、me of the groups adefensiveaspectincaseofindustry HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 adidas Goods, ADS GR; Buy; TP: EUR255.00): Still likely to deliver a combinationofrobustsalesandmarginin2019,arobust pipeline. An priced and defensive stock.Consumer Staples HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 FEMSA(Beverages,US,Buy;TP:US

50、D92.00):2019bethefirstfull yearrunsitsdigitalinallitscoremarkets.toolstrongerresults.isamultiyearlowc8.0 xFY19e HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 Tesco (Food Retail, TSCO LN; Buy; TP: GBp265.00): is the leader in UK food retail. market is sceptical it beat its target and is ignoring Disconnect results and is

51、the HYPERLINK l _bookmark35 AB Foods (Non-Food Retail, AVF LN; Buy; TP: GBp3,250): market price-ledretailisbyacompetitivelyadvantagedoperatingstrategicandsearchmoresitessupportsexpansion.Health Care HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 LN; by isaFinancials HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 Credit Suisse (Banks DM, CSGN SW

52、; Buy; TP: CHF15.00): One of the largest global wealth managers. RoTE improves structurally in 2019-20e, due to lower non-core, tax and funding costs. This offsets impact of short-term marketweakness. HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 IndusInd Bank (Banks EM, IIB IN; Buy; TP: INR1,950): IIB is one of the banks

53、 in a notable track record of RoE maintaining assetConcernsonthestockappearandvaluationsare HYPERLINK l _bookmark44 Deutsche Boerse (Exchanges, DB1 GR; Buy; EUR135.00): Deutsche Brse remains one of the best-diversified global exchanges. Volatility and interest rate uncertainty should drive trading v

54、olumes, regulation should drive more business towards exchangeplatforms. HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 WirecardWDIGR;TP:EUR240.00):Strongpaymentsgrowthmomentum with no tangible headwinds fuelled by extension and convergence of payment value chain. Fintech initiatives are not yet incorporated into theguida

55、nce.Information Technology HYPERLINK l _bookmark49 Alibaba BABA US; TP: USD190.00): Expect better growth for core commerce division, implying earnings upside in the near term. We think the market under- appreciates the potential value and synergies created by Alibabas latestinitiatives. HYPERLINK l

56、_bookmark51 Samsung Electronics (Semiconductors, 005930 KS; Buy TP: KRW54,000): Expect memoryreboundquickerthanmarket,startinginQ2,andupsidetonewproductcycle,with 5G and foldable products. Technology sector leader with attractive dividend yield at3.4%.Utilities HYPERLINK l _bookmark54 CK(HongKong,10

57、38Buy;TP:HKD74.00):Superiorearningsgrowth, M&A opportunities and attractive valuations and dividends are reasons we like the stock. Potential group-level restructuring activities should act as a share pricecatalyst.Real Estate HYPERLINK l _bookmark57 Vonovia(RealVNGY;TP:EUR52.00):LeadingGermanreside

58、ntialcompany provides access to a large and scalable platform in Europes most dynamic submarket. Diversified business model offers several growth options in stricter regulatoryenvironment.EnergyIntegrated Oils: BP (BP / LN) Transformation in costs and capital efficiency thats not yet over Robust out

59、look: free cash breakeven moving sub-USD50/b Brent High free cash yields point to potential upside to cash distributions; Buy-rated with a TP GBp630Gordon Gray*Global Head of Oil and Gas Equity ResearchHSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:gordon.gray gordon.gray+44 20 7991 6787Kim Fustier* Analyst, Oil &

60、Gas HSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:kim.fustier kim.fustier+44 20 3359 2136* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/ qualified pursuant to FINRAregulationsKey report: HYPERLINK /R/10/SfXpBw2oGpEG Big Oils in 2019, 13 January 2019 Company overviewa in in We a in f