企业管理TheMultiplierProcessasMarketExchangeProcess英文版

1、The Mulltipplieer PProccesss as MMarkket Excchannge ProocesssA CConttribbutiion to thee Miicroo Foounddatiion of Keyynessiann MaacrooecoonommicssGangg Goong#. Dept. of economics, Graduate Faculty, New School for Social Research, 65 Fifth Ave. New York, NY 10003. 093992.Feb., 119955The autthorr iss v

2、eery graatefful to Edwwardd Neell, Wiillii Seemmller, Duuncaan FFoleey, Davvid Collandder, Joohn Eattwelll, Pauul DDaviidsoon aand Willliaam MMilbbergg foor ttheiir ccommmentts aand sugggesstioons on thee eaarlyy drraftt off thhis papper.The Mulltipplieer PProccesss ass Maarkeet EExchhangge PProcces

3、ssA CConttribbutiion to thee Miicroo Foounddatiion of Keyynessiann MaacrooecoonommicssAbsttracctTradditiionaal eequiilibbriuum aanallysiis hhas beeen iincoorreectlly ffounndedd onnce an orrderringg isssuee iis cconccernned. Too ciircuumveent thiis pprobblemm, tthe auttonoomouus ddemaand, whhichh haa

4、s bbeenn miisseed iin ttradditiionaal mmicrroecconoomicc annalyysiss, hhas to be inttrodduceed iintoo thhe ssysttem as a sstarrtinng ppoinnt oof aa seequeencee off maarkeet eexchhangges. Foolloowinng tthiss diirecctioon, Keyynesss mulltipplieer aanallysiis ccan alsso bbe vviewwed as a ddesccripptioo

5、n oof tthe proocesss tthrooughh whhichh maarkeet eexchhangges aree geenerrateed. Furrtheer, thee Keeyneesiaan mmacrroecconoomicc reelattionn caan aalsoo bee prroveed wwithhin a mmicrro eeconnomiic cconttextt. (JELL D00, EE0)Thee coonseensuus iin mmacrroecconoomiccs tthatt prrevaaileed uuntiil tthe e

6、arrly 19770s fallterred beccausse oof ttwo flaaws, onne eempiiriccal andd thhe ootheer ttheooretticaal. . Thhe ttheooretticaal fflaww waas tthatt thhe cconssenssus vieew lleftt a chaasm bettweeen mmicrroecconoomicc prrincciplles andd maacrooecoonommic praactiice thaat wwas tooo grreatt too bee innte

7、lllecctuaallyy saatissfyiing. (Mannkiww, 119900, ppp. 16447) I. IIntrroduuctiionLastt twwentty yyearrs hhavee wiitneesseed ttwo oppposiite ressearrch dirrecttionns. Onee, eentiitleed aas NNew Claassiicall, iis tto eexpllainn maacrooecoonommic pheenommenaa baasedd onn ann inndivviduual chooicee-thheo

8、rretiic fframmewoork of traadittionnal miccroeeconnomiics symbol 190 f Symbol s 12 thhouggh tthe axiiom of rattionnal exppecttatiion is oftten adoopteed. Thee ottherr iss thhe aatteemptt too reeconnstrructt miicrooecoonommicss soo ass too puut KKeynnesiian maccro-anaalyssis on a ffirmmer fouundaatio

9、on. Thiis ccateegorry iis nnow terrmedd Neew KKeynnesiian. Iss thhe chaasm sttilll leeft? Wee beelieeve (inndeeed mmanyy beelieeve) iit iis!. IIt iis sstilll nnot obvviouus wwhatt iss thhe mmicrro ffounndattionn off Keeyneesiaan mmacrroecconoomiccs.Thiss paaperr wiill preesennt mmy oown conntriibutt

10、ionn too thhis subbjecct. I bbeliievee thhe mmicrro ffounndattionn off Keeyneesiaan mmacrroecconoomiccs eexissts in thee coonteext of Keyynesss mulltipplieer pprinncipple. Sppeciificcallly, Keyynesss mulltipplieer aanallysiis ccan alsso bbe vviewwed as a ddesccripptioon oof tthe proocesss tthrooughh

11、 whhichh maarkeet eexchhangges aree geenerrateed. Thiis cconssideerattionn prroviidess uss a neww thheorretiicall frrameeworrk. Thee waay aan eeconnomyy opperaatess iss coomplleteely diffferrentt frrom thee waay ddesccribbed by traadittionnal equuiliibriium anaalyssis. Evven thee coonceept of equuil

12、iibriium hass too bee chhangged. Yeet tthe neww thheorretiicall frrameeworrk pprovvideed hheree tuurnss ouut tto bbe mmuchh suuperriorr inn thhe ssensse tthatt maany myssterriess off trradiitioonall miicrooecoonommicss auutommatiicallly dissapppearr annd ffurttherr, tthe Keyynessiann maacrooecoonomm

13、ic rellatiion is exaactlly sspeccifiied in a mmicrro eeconnomiic cconttextt.The papper is orgganiizedd ass foolloows. Fiirstt, II wiill raiise an isssue, whhichh I bellievve hhas lonng bbeenn suupprresssed in ecoonommic litteraaturre. Thiis iissuue iis ccrucciall, ffor thee thheorretiicall frrameewo

14、rrk oof ttradditiionaal eequiilibbriuum aanallysiis iis iincoorreectlly ffounndedd onnce thiis iissuue iis cconccernned. Myy owwn cconttribbutiion, hoowevver, iss exxacttly genneraatedd frrom my atttemppt tto ddeall wiith thiis iissuue. I tthenn exxposse hhow Keyynesss mulltipplieer aanallysiis ccan

15、 be unddersstoood aas aan aapprroacch tto ddesccribbe tthe genneraatioon pproccesss off maarkeet eexchhangges. Thheree arre ttwo wayys oof tthiss exxpossitiion: onne II caall thee foorwaard expposiitioon aand thee ottherr thhe bbackkwarrd eexpoosittionn. TThenn twwo pposssiblle ddoubbts willl bbe aa

16、ddrresssed, whhichh seeem to be, inn thhe vvieww off maany ecoonommistts, unssatiisfaactoory to thee muultiipliier theeoryy. AA maatheematticaal mmodeel wwilll foolloow tto sshoww hoow KKeynnesiian maccroeeconnomiic rrelaatioon ccan be speeciffiedd inn myy miicroo moodell off maarkeet eexchhangge. F

17、innallly, thee reelattionn beetweeen thiis mmulttipllierr appprooachh too ottherr appprooachhes on thiis ssubjjectt wiill be disscusssedd.II. Demmandd annd SSuppply, Whhichh Onne iis tthe Firrst?Conssideer aan aagennt wwho commes to an ecoonommy. He cerrtaiinlyy waantss too haave twoo tyypess off ex

18、xchaangee: bbuyiing andd seelliing. Whhichh onne sshouuld he havve ffirsst? Thee trradiitioonall eqquillibrriumm annalyysiss dooes nott offferr ann exxpliicitt annsweer. Imppliccitlly, thee syysteem aassuumess thhat ageentss maake theeir demmandd annd ssuppply deccisiionss siimulltanneouuslyy. TThen

19、n hoow ccan thiis ssimuultaaneiity be rattionnaliizedd inn prractticee? One firrst finnds thaat tthiss siimulltanneitty iis iindeeed rattionnaliizedd inn thhe tt_toonneemennt pproccesss. AAgennts, inn thhe tt_toonneemennt pproccesss, aare supppossed to putt foorwaard theeir demmandd annd ssuppply de

20、ccisiionss siimulltanneouuslyy att quuoteed ppricces. Thhesee deemannd aand suppplyy deecissionns aare nott suubjeect to acttuall exxchaangees. Acttuall exxchaangees wwilll noot ttakee pllacee unntill thhe eequiilibbriuum hhas beeen rreacchedd. Yet outtsidde tthe t_ttonnnemeent, thhis simmulttaneeit

21、yy caan hharddly be rattionnaliizedd. FFirsst, a ddeciisioon wwithhoutt exxchaangee iss ecconoomiccallly mmeanningglesss. Seccondd, aagennts cannnott haave twoo tyypess off exxchaangees, demmandd annd ssuppply, too taake plaace at thee saame timme. Natturaallyy thheree iss a proobleem whiich onee is

22、s thhe ffirsst?. One shoouldd noote thaat tthiss isssuee, whiich onee iss thhe ffirsst?, hhas lonng bbeenn suupprresssed in ecoonommic litteraaturre. Weiintrraubb (119777, ppp. 4) oncce rregaardeed thee siimulltanneitty as onee off thhe aanommaliies of neooclaassiicall syysteem, butt diid nnot proov

23、idde aa sooluttionn. BBenaassyy (119822) wwas eveen eentaanglled. Inn chhaptter 4, he disstinnguiishees tthe timme oordeerinng oof aan aagenntss diiffeerennt ddeciisioons. Thhrouugh thiis mmannner, hee appproopriiateely illlusttrattes thee sspilll-ooverr efffecct cauusedd byy ann iinittiall diistuur

24、baancee ttrannsmiitteed ffromm maarkeet tto mmarkket. Yeet iin cchappterr 7, hee giivess upp thhis disstinnctiion andd woorkss aggainn onn thhe ssimuultaaneoous natturee off addjusstmeent proocesss. Thooughh hee beelieevess thhat inn reealiity ageentss viisitt maarkeets seqquenntiaallyy,(pp. 633) ww

25、orkkingg onn siimulltanneouus nnatuure, inn hiis mmindd, iisabssoluutelly sstanndarrd iin aall mulltimarrkett eqquillibrriumm moodell annd iit wwilll siimpllifyy thhe eexpoosittionn, aas wwe sshalll nnot havve tto fformmaliize thee orrderringg off thhe mmarkketss.(pp. 633)But thiis staandaard iss mi

26、isleeadiing. Inn prractticee, aagennts cannnott viisitt alll mmarkketss siimulltanneouuslyy. SSecoond, thhat ordderiing, ass wee shhalll seee llateer, cann bee foormaalizzed. Thhirdd, tthatt orrderringg iss crruciial to ecoonommic anaalyssis: whhen thee orrderringg iss appproopriiateely forrmallizee

27、d, thee eqquillibrriumm sttatee, aat wwhicch tthe acttuall quuanttitiies aree trranssactted, iss coomplleteely diffferrentt frrom thee onne aachiieveed bby tthe traadittionnal equuiliibriium anaalyssis, esssenntiaallyy, tthe anaalyssis bassed on simmulttaneeityy. Now letts atttemppt tto ddeall wiith

28、 thiis oordeerinng iissuue. Supperfficiiallly, ageentss seeem to demmandd fiirstt. TTo ssuppply an outtputt, oone firrst neeeds to prooducce iit, andd thhat reqquirres inpput. Thhis migght be truue iin aa prrimiitivve ccommmodiity ecoonommy. In succh aan eeconnomyy, pprodducttionn sccalees aare smaa

29、ll andd prroduucerrs aare oftten sellf-eemplloyeed, thooughh feew wworkkerss ottherr thhan fammilyy meembeer mmay be empployyed. Thhis inddicaatess thhat thee fiinannciaal ccostt too prroduuce outtputt maay bbe ssmalll aand theerefforee thhe ccostt frrom thee faailuure to selll tthe outtputt maay nn

30、ot be larrge. Howeeverr, iin aa mooderrn mmasss-prroduuctiion ecoonommy, prooducctioon iis oofteen llarggelyy sccaleed aand finnancciall coostss too prroduuce outtputts aare oftten higgh. Thiis iindiicattes thaat ageentss arre nnot willlinng tto bbearr thhe rriskk thhat theeir prooducced outtputt ca

31、annoot bbe ssoldd. TTherrefoore befforee a prooduccer buyys iinpuut, he willl mmakee suure thaat hhe ccan selll tthe asssociiateed ssuppply, orr inn ottherr woordss, eengaage in hiss seelliing acttiviity. The selling activity may have a broad meaning. Signing a contract is certainly a typical exampl

32、e. Forecasting or expecting the future sale may be an other. In traditional equilibrium analysis, an agents expectation only depends on price. By this expectation behavior, the ordering issue seems unimportant. Therefore, it is the expectation in such a way that ties the two (demand and supply) toge

33、ther. We will argue that this expectation behavior is not justified in an uncertainty economy. Later, we will deal with this issue in detail. Thhe ssimiilarrityy iss allso appplieed tto cconssumeer. We cannnott immagiine thaat aa coonsuumerr woouldd buuy cconssumpptioon ggoodds wwithhoutt knnowiing

34、wheetheer hhe ccan or cannnott orr hoow mmuchh hee caan sselll ouut hhis ownn enndowwmennts. Thhouggh, in praactiice, siituaatioons mayy bee muuch morre ccomppliccateed, thee geenerraliity is cleear: aggentts wwilll enngagge iin ttheiir sselllingg acctivvityy beeforre ttheiir bbuyiing acttiviity. Pr

35、reciiselly iin tthiss seensee, aa mooderrn ccapiitallistt ecconoomy is a ddemaand-dettermmineed eeconnomyy. Now if alll aggentts ttry to selll (or enggagee inn thheirr seelliing acttiviity) fiirstt, wwherre ddoess thhe ddemaand comme ffromm? IIf nnoboody triies to demmandd soometthinng wwithhoutt se

36、elliing firrst, thhe ssysttem willl nnot worrk. Forr trradiitioonall eqquillibrriumm ecconoomiccs, thiis iis aa seerioous proobleem. It is serriouus bbecaausee thhe ssoluutioon tto tthiss prrobllem cannnott bee deerivved froom tthe traadittionnal fraamewworkk off eqquillibrriumm annalyysiss. WWe iin

37、deeed neeed aa reevollutiion in metthoddoloogy.III. Whheree Dooes thee Deemannd CComee frrom? a Bacckwaard ExpposiitioonThiss seectiion willl pprovvidee a sollutiion to ourr afforeemenntioonedd prrobllem, thhat is, whheree dooes thee deemannd ccomee frrom if ageentss trry tto sselll fiirstt. AAppaar

38、enntlyy, ffor thee syysteem tto wworkk, ttherre mmustt apppeaar aa trradeer wwho commes to thee ecconoomy onlly tto ddemaand witthouut ttryiing to selll ssomeethiing firrst. Dooes thiis ttypee off trradeer eexisst iin tthe reaal wworlld? Yess, iit ddoess, aand we calll thee deemannd ffromm suuch a t

39、tradder thee noon-ssuppply rellateed ddemaand. Suppply-Rellateed DDemaand andd Noon-SSuppply Rellateed DDemaand. A suppplyy reelatted demmandd iss thhe ddemaand whoose payymennt iis ssuppposeed tto bbe ccoveeredd nott neecesssarrilyy inn addvannce butt sooon bby aa coorreespoondiing salle. A nnon-su

40、ppplyy reelatted demmandd iss thhe ddemaand whoose payymennt iis nnot supppossed to be covvereed bby aan iimmeediaate salle, thooughh peerhaaps in a vveryy loong futturee, tthiss paaymeent shoouldd sttilll bee cooverred. A typpicaal eexammplee off suupplly rrelaatedd deemannd iis cconssumpptioon dde

41、maand, whhichh iss suuppoosedd too bee cooverred by connsummer inccomee coominng ffromm thhe sselllingg off enndowwmennts. Annothher exaamplle iis pprodducttionn deemannd, e.gg., labbor, maaterriall, eetc., wwhosse ppaymmentt iss suuppoosedd too bee cooverred by selllinng ccommmodiitiees oon wwhicch

42、 ttheyy arre uusedd inn prroduuctiion proocesssess. TThe nonn-suupplly rrelaatedd deemannd iis tthe auttonoomouus ddemaand in thee ussuall seensee. In tthe traadittionnal equuiliibriium fraamewworkk, ttherre iis nno ssuchh diistiincttionn. Paul Davidson (1992) remarks that in this sense Keyness taxo

43、nomy provides an inherently more general theory.(pp. 458) AAs wwe sshalll ssee latter, thhesee twwo ttypees oof ddemaand plaay ddifffereent rolles in thee maarkeet eexchhangge pproccesss annd hhencce tthe disstinnctiion turrns outt too bee neecesssarry.Consstraaintts ffor Ecoonommicaallyy Seensiible

44、e Suupplly-RRelaatedd Deemannd. Demmandd allwayys mmeanns aa fiinannciaal ppay-outt annd hhencce ffor an ageent it is a llosss inn hiis wweallth. Thhus befforee hee paays outt, tthe ageent musst mmakee suure wheetheer hhis payy-ouut iis eeconnomiicallly sennsibble. Thenn whhat do we meaan bby aan ee

45、connomiicallly sennsibble payy-ouut oor aan eeconnomiicallly sennsibble demmandd? FFor suppplyy-reelatted demmandds, twoo coonsttraiintss muust be possiteed. I. FFinaanciial Connstrrainnt: Thee aggentt muust havve ffinaanciial ressourrce to payy foor hhis purrchaase, ass deemannd.II. Exppecttatiiona

46、al CConsstraaintt: TThe ageent musst eexpeect thaat hhe ccan selll tthe rellateed ssuppply so thaat tthe revvenuue ffromm thhis selllinng ccan covver hiss cuurreent demmandd. As tto tthe finnancciall coonsttraiint, whheree thhe ffinaanciial ressourrce commes froom iis nnot impporttantt. IIt ccan com

47、me ffromm eiitheer pprevviouus sselllingg orr frrom creeditt. IIn tthe moddernn crrediit ssysttem, thhis connstrrainnt sseemms tto bbe ssomeewhaat eeasiily sattisffiedd. HHoweeverr thhis doees nnot meaan tthatt thhe cconsstraaintt dooes nott exxistt. FFor exaamplle, inccomee iddenttifiicattionn iss

48、offtenn reequiiredd byy baankss too isssuee a creeditt caard. Neeverrtheelesss tthiss iss onnly a nneceessaary connstrrainnt, nott suuffiicieent. Evven if a pprodduceer hhas suffficciennt iidlee caash, hee wiill nott deemannd tthosse iinpuuts useed tto pprodducee thhe ccommmodiity thaat ccannnot be

49、solld. Simmilaarlyy, aa coonsuumerr wiill nott pllan hiss coonsuumpttionn deemannd wwithhoutt knnowiing wheetheer hhe ccan (orr caannoot) or howw muuch he cann seell hiss enndowwmennts. Wee wiill finnd tthatt trradiitioonall eqquillibrriumm annalyysiss laackss a coonsiiderratiion exaactlly oon tthis

50、s coonsttraiint.The Exppecttatiion as to Salles. Wee noow ffocuus oour atttenttionn onn thhe eexpeectaatioon cconsstraaintt. TThiss coonsttraiint itsselff meeanss thhat befforee paayinng ffor thee suupplly rrelaatedd deemannd aan aagennt sshouuld exxpecct tthatt hee caan sselll thhe rrelaatedd suupp

51、lly. In this sense, forming an expectation, as we mentioned early (see footnote 1), may also be regarded as a selling activity. Theen wwherre ddoess thhe eexpeectaatioon ccomee frrom? Too maake thiingss cllearr, wwe mmay deffinee ann exxpecctattionn fuuncttionn,(1) .Abovve is thee exxpecctedd saale;

52、 N iss thhe iinfoormaatioon aavaiilabble to thee aggentt, ccondditiionaal oon wwhicch tthe exppecttatiion is derriveed. Thee maajorr prrobllem theen bbecoomess whhat is thee innforrmattionn N?One shoouldd noote thaat iin ttradditiionaal eequiilibbriuum aanallysiis, thee innforrmattionn N iss onnly a

53、boout priice. IIn mmanyy raatioonall exxpecctattionns mmodeels, aggentts aare onlly cconccernned witth tthe futturee exxpecctedd prricee, oon wwhicch ttheyy reely to makke ttheiir ddeciisioons. Muths original model (1961) is certainly such an example, others, e.g. Lucas (1972), Frydman (1982) among

54、others. Thhis inddicaatess thhat ageentss haave fulll-cconffideencee thhat at givven or exppectted priicess thhey cann seell theeir outtputt ass muuch as theey wwantt. the output as much as they want is certainly referred to the optimum output derived from the agents optimization process given the e

55、xpected prices. OOncee thhey havve ssuchh coonfiidennce, thhey cerrtaiinlyy neeed nott coonceern theemseelvees wwithh thhe oordeerinng oof ttheiir aactiivittiess. HHoweeverr ann aggentt whho rreveealss suuch a ffullly cconffideencee wiithiin aan uunceertaain ecoonommy ccan harrdlyy bee reegarrdedd a

56、ss raatioonall orr inntellliggentt, wwhettherr hee iss seelfiish (reefleecteed bby hhis opttimiizattionn prroceess) orr noot. Elsewhere (Gong, 1993, 1994b), I call such a revealed behavior as full-confidence expectation with its meaning and relation to the neoclasical system explained in detail.I th

57、hus arggue thaat tthe exppectted salle ccannnot be dettermmineed oonlyy byy prricee innforrmattionn. NN muust conntaiin qquanntitty iinfoormaatioon. Thee foolloowinng, whiich I bbeliievee too bee veery commmonn inn prractticee, iis mmy oown sugggesstioon.Infoormaatioon UUsedd foor EExpeectaatioonFor

58、 connsummerss:workkingg coontrractts,orall prromiisess tenuuress, eetc.For prooduccerss:ordeers pastt saaless.If infformmatiion takkes thee foorm of conntraactss, oordeers, ettc., thhe eexpeectaatioon ffuncctioon iis vveryy eaasy to deffinee. WWhatt iss saaid in conntraactss (oor oordeers) iss exxac

59、ttly whaat iis eexpeecteed. If infformmatiion commes froom ppastt saale, thhe eexpeectaatioon ffuncctioon wwilll deepennd oon tthe pattterrn bby wwhicch aagennts forrm ttheiir eexpeectaatioon. Thee moodells oof aadapptivve eexpeectaatioon, leaarniing andd evven rattionnal exppecttatiion migght be ap

60、pplieed hheree, bbut thee innforrmattionn, ffromm whhichh thhe eexpeectaatioon iis dderiivedd, sshouuld alsso cconttainn thhe qquanntitty (thee paast salle). Demaand Dettermminaatioon, a BBackkwarrd EExpoosittionn. WWe aare noww reeadyy foor mmy bbackkwarrd eexpoosittionn off thhe wway demmandd iss