Q2全球基础设施投资收益指南

1、9 April 2019GlobalEQUITIESInside HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Macquaries global infrastructure picks2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 1Q19 guide to yield investing6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Macquaries fundamental views10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Utilities13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Telecom21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Trans

2、portation Infrastructure41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Real estate and REITS53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Yield summary charts62 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Highest current dividend yields67 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Fastest dividend growth68 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Macquarie Alpha Model69 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 En

3、ergy Infrastructure76 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Utilities78 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Telecommunication Infrastructure81 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Transportation Infrastructure84 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Real Estate87 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Macquarie Data Set90AnalystsMacquarie Capital (USA) Inc. HYPERLIN

4、K /directory/people/details?analystId=55 Angie Storozynski +1 212 231 2569 HYPERLINK mailto:angie.storozynski angie.storozynskiGlobal Infrastructure2Q19 guide to yield investingKey points Lower perceived risk of rising rates is driving utility share price performance in Europe and the US. We continu

5、e to think US telecoms have to work harder to preserve their premiums over 2yr/10yr Treasuries. ICT PM, PLNG IN and 2778 HK have OP ratings and are the top-rated infra stocks by our quant team.The fundamental viewMacro: As price growth accelerates, our Economics Desk Strategy team expects the Fed wi

6、ll regain its hiking bias in 2H19, supporting our forecast for one hike by the end of the year and another in 2020. Our economists believe the US 10-year T yield should rise gradually to 2.85% by end-19 and 3.25% by end-20. It remains to be seen whether the global economic slowdown is the beginning

7、of the next global recession, or a temporary dip that will quickly reverse, but our economics team takes comfort from the fact that major central banks have turned on a dime and are now acting to shore up growth.Top ideas for 2Q19: (1) Among US regulated electric utilities we favor large-cap value s

8、tocks, AEP US and SO US in particular. AES US and EXC US remain our top picks among diversified utilities. In Europe, lower perceived risk of rising rates is driving utility performance, benefiting regulated names and utilities levering up with organic capex. Our top picks in Europe are NTGY SM, TRN

9、 IM, and EDP PL. We pick AST AU among Australian regulated utilities, and ORG AU among unregulated names. In Japan, 9505 JP is our favorite, and 9513 JP least favorite. In Malaysia, our favorite remains TNB MK and in New Zealand MEL NZ and CEN NZ. (2) Of US telecoms we continue to favor T US althoug

10、h we think the yield telecoms have to work harder to preserve their premiums. In Europe, we pick ORA FP for delivery and strategic shift and INW IM for strong dividend outlook and scale. We like CNU NZ in New Zealand and ST SP in Singapore. (3) In the Australian infrastructure sector, our top pick i

11、s ALX AU, and in New Zealand we like ZEL NZ. (4) For real estate, we like GMT NZ in New Zealand, MSP SJ in South Africa, and PHNX IN in India.The quant viewThe top quant pick goes to 87001 HK with an alpha score of 2.1, followed by ICT PM, PLNG IN, 600009 CH, and 2778 HK. More details starting on P6

12、9.Our top global stock callsWhere fundamentals and quant overlap: ICT PM, PLNG IN and 2778 HK have OP ratings and are the top-rated infra stocks by our quant team, while GLO PM, ILD FP and BGRIM TB have dual negative conviction (P74).Where growth and yield overlap: ZEL NZ, ATL IM, DRI GR, ENB CN and

13、 VKE SJ are stocks offering a strong combination of both NTM yields (5.5-9.8%) and DPS growth (6-50% pa) (P66).Please refer to page HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 98 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website HYPERLINK /research/disclosures /research/disclosures.Macquarie Resear

14、chGlobal InfrastructureMacquaries global infrastructure picksFig 1 Favourites and least favourites (see comments starting on page 7)CompanyTickerFavorites RatingRegionPriceTPUtilitiesContact EnergyCEN NZNeutralNew ZealandNZ$6.81NZ$6.26Naturgy Energy GroupNTGY SMOutperformEurope25.325.5TernaTRN IMOut

15、performEurope5.595.9EDP - Energias de PortugalEDP PLOutperformEurope3.523.8Hokuriku Electric Power Company9505 JPOutperformJapan8511060Tenaga NasionalTNB MKOutperformMalaysiaRM12.6RM15.8Southern CompanySO USOutperformUnited States$51.4$52American Electric PowerAEP USOutperformUnited States$82.88$85T

16、elecommunication ServicesOrangeORA FPOutperformEurope14.8216.3AT&TT USOutperformUnited States$32.29$35SingTelST SPOutperformSingaporeS$3.06S$4.12InwitINW IMOutperformEurope7.969ChorusCNU NZNeutralNew ZealandNZ$6NZ$5.25Real Estate and REITsGoodman Property TrustGMT NZOutperformNew ZealandNZ$1.7NZ$1.7

17、8MAS Real EstateMSP SJOutperformSouth AfricaR22R25Phoenix MillsPHNX INOutperformIndiaRS645.7RS700Transportation InfrastructureAtlas ArteriaALX AUOutperformAustraliaA$7.11A$7.31Auckland International AirportAIA NZOutperformNew ZealandNZ$8.05NZ$8.02Energy InfrastructureZ EnergyZEL NZOutperformNew Zeal

18、andNZ$6.34NZ$7.14CompanyTickerLeast Favorites RatingRegionPriceTPUtilitiesElectric Power Development Co9513 JPNeutralJapan26812740PPLPPL USUnderperformUnited States$31.83$27Duke EnergyDUK USNeutralUnited States$89.88$88.5VectorVCT NZNeutralNew ZealandNZ$3.51NZ$3.5Telecommunication ServicesCenturyLin

19、kCTL USUnderperformUnited States$12.4$12DiGDIGI MKUnderperformMalaysiaRM4.7RM4.02Telstra CorporationTLS AUUnderperformAustraliaA$3.27A$2.9Real Estate and REITsVital Healthcare Property TrustVHP NZUnderperformNew ZealandNZ$2.14NZ$2.07Fortress REITFFA SJUnderperformSouth AfricaR18.7R17.9Transportation

20、 InfrastructureSydney AirportSYD AUUnderperformAustraliaA$7.27A$6.69Source: FactSet, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2019. All prices are as of Apr 8, 2019.9 April 20192Macquarie ResearchGlobal Infrastructure39 April 2019The Macquarie Infrastructure Index outperformed MSCI in 1Q19Rebalanced quarterly

21、 and equally weighted, the index goes long all covered global infra stocks with mkt caps US$1bn and NTM yields 1% which had Outperform ratings (93) and short those with Underperform ratings (19).In 1Q19, the Index returned a net 9.7% vs the MSCI World Infrastructure benchmarks +8.9%. Since inception

22、 at the beginning of 1Q16, the Index has returned +37% (+10% annualized) vs +13% (+4% annualized) for the benchmark.Fig 2 Macquarie has 272 infrastructure stocks under coverage worldwide, covered by 44 fundamental analysts across 16 countriesSource: Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2019Macquarie Resea

23、rchGlobal Infrastructure4Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc.Macquarie Capital (Europe) LimitedMacquarie Equities South Africa (Pty) LtdAngie StorozynskiJose RuizMahir Hamdulay+1 212 231 2569 HYPERLINK mailto:angie.storozynski angie.storozynski+44 20 3037 1912 HYPERLINK mailto:jose.ruiz jose.ruiz+27 21 813

24、2705 HYPERLINK mailto:mahir.hamdulay mahir.hamdulayAmy YongGuy PeddyNazeem Samsodien9 April 2019+1 212 231 2624 HYPERLINK mailto:amy.yong amy.yong+44 20 3037 4509 HYPERLINK mailto:guy.peddy guy.peddy+27 21 813 2771 HYPERLINK mailto:nazeem.samsodien nazeem.samsodienMacquarie Capital Securities (Japan

25、) LimitedMacquarie Securities (Australia) LimitedMacquarie Securities (NZ) Limited Hiroyuki SakaidaIan Myles, CFAWarren Doak+81 3 3512 6695 HYPERLINK mailto:hiroyuki.sakaida hiroyuki.sakaida+61 2 8232 4157 HYPERLINK mailto:ian.myles ian.myles+64 9 363 1416 HYPERLINK mailto:warren.doak warren.doakMac

26、quarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd.Andrew LevyNick MarPrem Jearajasingam+61 2 8232 5165 HYPERLINK mailto:andrew.levy andrew.levy+64 9 363 1476 HYPERLINK mailto:nick.mar nick.mar+60 3 2059 8989 HYPERLINK mailto:prem.jearajasingam prem.jearajasingamMacquarie Capital Securities India (Pvt) L

27、tdStephen HudsonAbhishek Bhandari , CFA+64 9 363 1414 HYPERLINK mailto:stephen.hudson stephen.hudson+91 22 6720 4088 HYPERLINK mailto:abhishek.bhandari abhishek.bhandariMacquarie ResearchGlobal Infrastructure9 April 20195Source: Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets, April 20192Q19 guide to yield

28、 investingThe Macquarie Global Infrastructure Yield ReportThis quarterly product brings together all of Macquarie Researchs resources relating to income- chasing equity investing in infrastructure sectors to create a one-stop shop for yield investors. By combining fundamental analysis with quant scr

29、eens, taking both top-down and bottom-up approaches, this report incorporates contributions from 44 fundamental analysts, and includes screens of 272 stocks worldwide. The report focuses exclusively on infrastructure-related real asset industries, one of Macquaries core areas of expertisespecificall

30、y, utilities, telecom, real estate, transportation infrastructure, and energy infrastructure.A summary of analysts thesesEconomics (Macquarie Desk Strategy): For yield investors, the US 10-year bond yield is an all- important input into investment decision making. We expect the Fed will regain its h

31、iking bias in 2H19, supporting our forecast for one hike by the end of the year and once further in 2020. We believe the 10-year yield will rise gradually to 2.85% by end-19 and 3.25% by end-20. The global economy hit an air pocket around the turn of the year, with the partial indicators suggesting

32、significant and widespread weakness in December and January. While it is too early to precisely calibrate the slowdown, our best guess is that global GDP growth slowed from around 2% (saar) in Q4 to around 2% in Q1, with industrial production (IP) and exports noticeably weaker.Strategy (Macquarie De

33、sk Strategy): In the first two months of 2019, we have already witnessed both Central Banks and China engaging in precautionary policy changes. The key question facing investors is whether what has been done thus far is sufficient to reverse both liquidity and disinflationary cycles. We recommend no

34、t chasing waves and meaningless noise. The lack of recognizable and durable business & capital market cycles, when combined with ETFs & AI, makes chasing waves exceptionally hazardous and inconsistent. We continue to believe that less is more. We prefer two equity investment styles: Quality Sustaina

35、ble Growth, and Thematic Winners.UtilitiesUnited States: Given rich valuations, were going for value. Regulated electric utilities are trading at a 25.1% FY2 valuation premium vs the S&P, close to 1.5 SDs above the 10-year average premium of 7.1% though there is a wide disparity in valuation premium

36、s among US utilities. Large cap regulated electric utilities (ex California utilities) are trading at an 11.3% discount to smid cap regulated utilities vs a 5.6% average discount over the last three years. The valuation discount for large cap regulated names looks excessive to us, hence our strong p

37、reference for these companies, AEP and SO in particular. AES and EXC remain our favorite picks among diversified utilities given the combination of attractive valuations and premium growth prospects (AES) and an earnings upside related to power market reforms (EXC). Valuations of water utilities loo

38、k particularly rich and we stick with AWK as our sole Outperform for the group given premium EPS/DPS growth prospects at least through 2023.Europe: There has been a material difference in performance within Europe in the last three months, but this quarter was not driven by any particular market in

39、Europe, with the exception of the rebound in UK stocks. The worst performing sub sector was a mix of European power generators particularly exposed to weaker carbon prices (EDF, Fortum and Drax). Best performers in the last three months were the European infrastructure utilities, led by UK regulated

40、 names (UK water stocks and National Grid) and German utility RWE. Southern Europe has seen good performance both in Italy and in Iberia. The key macro theme driving utility performance has been the lower perceived risk of rising interest rates. This macro trend has favored regulated names and utili

41、ties that are targeting to re-leverage their balance sheets through organic growth capex. As an example of the relevance of macro drivers, lower sovereign risk perception in Spain has been justified by the market anticipating the impact of ECBs new tone on its monetary policy, despite the announceme

42、nt of new general elections in Spain (on 28 April). Our views on European utilities are positive in general: 1) We remain broadly positive on Central Europe, because of the higher exposure to carbon prices. We see carbon maintaining at the current levels and supporting power prices, despite the rece

43、nt collapse in gas prices. 2) We see better growth opportunities in regulated or semi-regulated names in Southern Europe at the moment. We continue to prefer stocks which offer organic growth and cash return to shareholders. Our favorite infra/yield stocks are Naturgy Energy, Terna and EDP.Australia

44、: Unregulated utilities face multiple risk to the downside including sustained declining wholesale electricity prices, implementation of the DMO, VDO, declining LREC prices, and on- going threat of government intervention making it difficult for ORG and AGL. Our preference is ORG (vs. AGL) as its sm

45、aller baseload exposure helps reduce regulatory risk to earnings, while also having a stronger gas portfolio in APLNG, allows ORG to benefit from rising gas prices. From a regulated utility perspective, we prefer AST. AST continues to be positioned to benefit from the exponential growth in renewable

46、 projects and new opportunities within non-regulated businesses particularly around the potential implementation of AEMOs Integrated System Plan.Japan: Our favorite stock is Hokuriku Electric Power (9505 JP), while our least favorite stock is J-POWER (9513 JP). Hokuriku EPCO shares have been punishe

47、d too much by a thermal power accident and offer an attractive investment case. But the J-POWER case looks different. J-POWER shares have been punished by ESG trends and the recovery of valuations looks difficult.Southeast Asia. Investors, while generally less worried over the regulatory environment

48、 following the recent tariff increase, have turned more cautious on Tenaga in Malaysia on the back of the companys potential involvement in the broadband space and the announcement of a new CEO. Tenagas board has yet to make a decision on whether Tenaga will partake in the National Fiberisation and

49、Connectivity Plan (NFCP) but we believe, given its vast infrastructure, Tenaga is likely to participate at a wholesale level in return for a regulated return which should be accretive for shareholders. We also do not expect investments in the space to detract from our thesis of increased capital man

50、agement initiatives ahead. Meanwhile, Tenagas new CEO has had significant experience within the Petronas group across various geographies and should add to the companys experience base.New Zealand: We remain cautious on the sector overall (ETS impact on industrial load, EPR/MEL B2B vols impact on re

51、tail pricing, economic impact of mandated renewable target). Increasingly though, we think these reforms may take longer to fully manifest themselves and be priced by the market. Nearer-term, MELs FCF yield spread over the 10NZGB yields remains in line with its historic average (3.2%) and CY+1-3 fut

52、ures prices remain firm. Our favoured exposures in the sector are MEL and CEN.TelecomUnited States: Of the yield names in our coverage, we continue to favor AT&T, currently yielding 6.40%. Over the last two years, T has traded at 3.6% and 3.0% premia to the 2yr/10yr Treasuries. As rates rise, we exp

53、ect these premiums will compress. Though yield names are having to work harder to preserve these premiums, we view AT&T as somewhat sheltered from this trend as investors focus on WarnerMedia integration. The deal, combined with an aggressive deleveraging plan, makes the financial mix of growth/yiel

54、d compelling, in our view. AT&Ts robust spectrum portfolio, sizeable fiber footprint, and combination of linear/OTT TV offerings future proof the business ahead of 5G. As mobile data traffic continues to rise, we believe AT&T is in a great position to tackle the unlimited data status quo. The carrie

55、r benefits from 40MHz of underutilized WCS/AWS-3 spectrum, some 2G spectrum left to be refarmed, and 20MHz of fresh spectrum from FirstNet. Additionally, management is focused on network virtualization and fiber deployment.Europe: We predicted that 2019 would kick off with fuelled expectations of M&

56、A but it would be irrational to assume market repair. Indeed, we have seen some of this unwind, especially in France in the early part of the year. In progress are TMUS and S in the US and Vodafone acquiring Liberty Globals German and EE assets. We expect both of these deals to be approved, but we r

57、emain nervous on any remedies (spectrum and wholesale access will be key) and the dramatic increase in leverage will drive midterm dividend policies for Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone. We favour Orange and Inwit among Europe telecoms. In a challenged sector, Orange is delivering and moving into the c

58、oncierge environment. Operational improvements are directionally positive and the strategic shifts underwrite the Orange value proposition in the long term. Inwit is the most significant example of the Neutral Host in Europe, and will have scale as it becomes suitably leveraged (5.0-5.5x) with a str

59、ong dividend outlook (4.8% from 2020).Southeast Asia. In Indonesia, investor perception towards the Indonesian telcos has improved following the release of 4Q18 results, which show further evidence of price stability supporting overall revenue and earnings growth. XL Axiata, which we currently rate

60、a Neutral, has seen a significant rerating as a result. In Singapore, further evidence of price cuts leading to further cautiousness on the city states telcos. We maintain our preference for SingTel which has committed to a 17.5cent DPS (5.8% yield) for FY3/19 and FY3/20, and has a more diversified