Q4北美石油与设备行业盈利预览

1、Oil Services & Equipment4Q18 Earnings Preview Part II: Setups, Hurdles & Quick TakesNorth America Equity Research06 February 2019As we cross the midway point in 4Q18 earnings season, we are previewing the second half of reports from the week of February 5 forward. Just as in our HYPERLINK /research/

2、content/GPS-2803318-0 first HYPERLINK /research/content/GPS-2803318-0 “early” preview installment, we provide quick takes on where we think buy-side and sell-side expectations deviate and what potential catalysts well be monitoring on the calls. A more in-depth summary of our thoughts and estimates

3、v. consensus can be found in the interior. Overall, we expect the balance of smid-cap reports during 4Q earnings season to reinforce our HYPERLINK /research/content/GPS-2896161-0 thoughts on FCF becoming an increasingly important valuation metric in OFS, with attention turned to capex flexibility to

4、 fund growth in a likely choppier upcycle. Despite fairly homogenous negative revisions to 1Q/2019 numbers thus far, the stocks have fared relatively well (OSX +4.2% since start of earnings v. SPX +3.9%) on the back of the broader risk rally and some positive upstream capex anecdotes HYPERLINK /rese

5、arch/content/GPS-2904071-0 from the majors. We are wary of the stocks mean reversion nature in recent earnings seasons potentially setting up for a “sell the news” back half of 4Q18 reports, but we continue to see select pockets of relative risk/reward opportunities ahead of prints.4Q18 One Liners P

6、ositive:PUMP: Preliminary 4Q results indicate PUMP was a positive outlier during a challenging end to 2018, and we think there is still upside potential.MRC: Scope for a modest margin beat-and-raise in 4Q/1Q (JPMe +20-30bps v. Street) on accretive valves mix, though investor focus will be on outlook

7、 to backfill large mid- and downstream project cadence.FRAC: Conservative guidance makes a 4Q surprise unlikely; however, we think restrained capex and still solid FCF can be taken positively; focused on commentary regarding timing of 2019 pricing/utilization inflection.NINE: 4Q likely toward the lo

8、wer end of guidance, but scope for a 1Q raise backed by cementing, wireline share gains, and full-quarter impact of Magnum.Neutral:NOV: 4Q looks okay as Wellbore mostly insulated from U.S. completions slowdown and backlog schedule de-risks lower end of Rig Tech/CAPS guides. 1Q numbers likely come do

9、wn (JPMe -4% v. Street), though 2019 estimates have already reset sufficiently for likely recalibration of FY guidance ($1-1.3bn) to be a non-event.FTI: 2019 guidance event de-risked, with focus now directed toward Subsea margin cadence (orders contingent). Lease accounting noise likely makes 4Q hea

10、dlines mixed, though we think commitment to higher y/y Subsea orders and outlook for LNG orders (after BHGEs bullish call) are more important.Oil Services and Equipment Sean C Meakim, CFA AC(1-212) 622-6684 HYPERLINK mailto:sean.meakim sean.meakimBloomberg JPMA MEAKIM Justin W Hawkins(1-212) 622-524

11、8 HYPERLINK mailto:justin.w.hawkins justin.w.hawkins Andrew P Herring, CFA (1-212) 622-8585 HYPERLINK mailto:andrew.p.herring andrew.p.herringAaron Rosenthal, CFA(1-212) 622-5828 HYPERLINK mailto:aaron.rosenthal aaron.rosenthalJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCSee page 99 for analyst certification and impor

12、tant disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single fac

13、tor in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / RIG: ORIG integration and associated capital allocation likely outweigh quarterly results; watch for an update on outstanding PBR tenders that ORIG assets have been linked to, and incremental color on the CVX contract win from 4Q18.PTEN: Exposure

14、to smaller E&Ps increases potential rig losses for PTEN in 2019; we expect pressure pumping margins to compress through at least 1H19 as pricing degrades. However, the stock is cheap based on replacement value, and a surprise cut to capex could lift FCF and give the shares a short-term boost.WHD: Re

15、ntal margin sensitivity relatively black box, though reiterated growth capex plans suggests healthy share gains outlook in 2019.ESV: Print takes a back seat to the puts and takes surrounding the upsized offer for RDC; look for a tendering update ahead of upcoming drillship contract rolls and contrac

16、ting outlook for benign and HS jackups.RDC: Quarterly results relegated again behind ESV merger commentary (assuming shareholders approve); look for an update on the opportunity set for RDCs drill ships and a high-spec jackup market outlook.DNOW: 4Q likely in line, but framing the timing/extent of a

17、nticipated gross margin pullback critical to 2019/2020 revisions (JPMe 1Q bottom mid 19%).FI: 4Q print relatively de-risked following prior guide; look for an update to the companys initial 2019 outlook with emphasis on Blackhawk expansion and FCF generation prospects.OIS: 3Q pre-announce and update

18、d FY18 guide likely de-risk 4Q print; successful milestones achieved on path to delivering integrated gun to market by 1H19 critical to mitigate a protracted completions downturn scenario.WTTR: WTTR is set for a meaningful step-down in EBITDA q/q, driven by well- messaged weakness in Water Solutions

19、 from slow 4Q completions demand, which we think is largely reflected in Street estimates.NE: Drillship tendering outlook and M&A opportunities likely overshadow quarterly results; expect NE to formalize the long-speculated acquisition of the Whitstines sister rig (with associated contract), but unl

20、ikely to receive Paragon update.TTI: We expect TTIs results to print about in line with consensus estimates as strength within Compression should be sufficient to offset a weak quarter for W&FS.NCSM: 4Q/1Q numbers likely overlooked given Canadian murkiness; watch forU.S. pinpoint and plug adoption t

21、rends (JPMe mid-SD growth in 4Q/1Q) and outlook for gross margin bottom (JPMe low-40% in 1Q/2Q).Negative:OII: 2019 outlook remains priority over 4Q results; look out for competitive pricing commentary on recently announced umbilical contracts, and ROV margin progression with mobe/demobe inefficienci

22、es likely to persist near term.DO: Look past 4Q print for capital allocation commentary in 2019 with emphasis on the economics underlying the reported semi reactivation; we think incremental capital outlay is not received well; expect more detail on the companys upcoming SPS schedule and pricing rea

23、d-throughs from recent semi tendering results.DRQ: Near-breakeven EBITDA the 4Q bogey; 2019 orders remain muted, but look for an update on Sea Lion and to what extent DRQ is willing to use its balance sheet to win incremental awards in 2019.NBR: Recent debt reduction and FCF guidance improve NBRs pr

24、ospects near term and provide upside to 4Q results, but this is already known and discounted; meanwhile, long-term profitability and balance sheet stability remain in question.PD. While U.S. strength should help balance Canadian market headwinds for the quarter, we think consensus estimates may be o

25、verestimating this offset, leaving scope for a downside surprise.SPN: SPNs 4Q results are likely to be negatively impacted by the slowdown in completions activity beyond what the Street is accounting for, and concerns of FCF capability are likely to persist even with a positive 4Q result.FET: We exp

26、ect 4Q EBITDA to come in low (JPMe $18mm v. Street $23mm), while 2019 consensus estimates remain elevated as the severity of the completions downturn has yet to fully filter through expectations. Keep an eye on FCF to (perhaps) mitigate share performance downside should initial 2019 guidance underwh

27、elm; return of Gaut as CEO could offer some new self-help levers.CFW: Challenges in both the U.S. and Canadian markets will drive a step down in 4Q results but are well-telegraphed; more critically, we are well below consensus for Canada in 2019/2020 and see significant downside to forward numbers.T

28、CW: While Canadian frac headwinds will make for a weak 4Q, estimates have adjusted accordingly; however, the same cant be said for 2019 (JPM EBITDA estimate -C$1mm v. consensus C$49mm).3Table of ContentsTOC o 1-2 h z u HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 4Q18 Earnings Calendar5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Capital Equ

29、ipment6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 National Oilwell Varco6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 TechnipFMC8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Cactus Wellhead11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Oceaneering International13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Dril-Quip15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Oil States International17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Forum Ener

30、gy Technologies19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Smid-Cap Services21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 ProPetro Holding21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Franks International23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Keane Group25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Select Energy Services27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Nine Energy Service29 HYPERLINK l _boo

31、kmark15 Superior Energy Services31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Calfrac Well Services33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Trican Well Services35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 NCS Multistage37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 TETRA Technologies39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Land Drillers41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Patterson-UTI41 HYPE

32、RLINK l _bookmark22 Nabors Industries43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Precision Drilling45 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Offshore Drillers47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Transocean47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Ensco49 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 Rowan Companies51 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 Diamond Offshore53 HYPERLINK l _book

33、mark29 Noble Corp55 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 Energy Distributors57 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 NOW Inc57 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 MRC Global594Q18 Earnings CalendarTable 1: 4Q18 Earnings CalendarCOMPANYTICKERREPORT DATESTATUSREPORT TIME (ET)CALL DATECALL TIME (ET)DIAL-IN NUMBERPASSCODE/ IDNational Oilwell

34、 VarcoNOV06-FebConfirmedAft-mkt07-Feb11:00WebcastPatterson-UTIPTEN07-FebConfirmed06:0007-Feb10:00(844) 704-24963519209Forum Energy TechnologiesFET08-FebConfirmedBef-mkt08-Feb10:00855-757-88763597240Diamond Offshore DrillingDO11-FebConfirmedBef-mkt11-Feb09:00844-492-60437757436Oil States Internationa

35、lOIS13-FebEstimateWebcastOceaneering InternationalOII13-FebConfirmed17:0114-Feb11:00WebcastNOW IncDNOW14-FebConfirmedBef-mkt14-Feb09:00800-446-1671Precision DrillingPD14-FebConfirmedBef-mkt14-Feb15:00844-515-9176MRC GlobalMRC14-FebConfirmedAft-mkt15-Feb10:00412-902-0003TransoceanRIG18-FebConfirmedAf

36、t-mkt19-Feb09:00323-994-20934397725Superior Energy ServicesSPN18-FebConfirmedAft-mkt19-Feb09:00888-317-60033034911TechnipFMCFTI20-FebConfirmedAft-mkt21-Feb08:00844 304 07755864368Trican Well ServiceTCW20-FebConfirmedAft-mkt21-Feb12:00800-319-4610Noble CorpNE20-FebConfirmed17:0021-Feb09:00833-245-965

37、36556717EnscoESV25-FebEstimateKeane GroupFRAC25-FebConfirmedAft-mkt26-Feb08:30(877) 407-9208Dril-QuipDRQ26-FebEstimateNabors IndustriesNBR26-FebConfirmedAft-mkt27-Feb11:00(888) 317-6003543166Franks InternationalFI26-FebEstimateProPetroPUMP26-FebConfirmedAft-mkt27-Feb09:00844-340-9046Rowan CompaniesR

38、DC27-FebEstimateTETRA TechnologiesTTI28-FebConfirmedBef-mkt28-Feb10:30888-347-5303Calfrac Well ServicesCFW01-MarEstimateSelect Energy ServicesWTTR06-MarEstimateNine Energy ServiceNINE06-MarConfirmedAft-mkt07-Mar11:00(877) 524-8416Cactus WellheadWHD07-MarEstimateNCS Multistage HoldingsNCSM07-MarEstim

39、ateSource: Bloomberg, company filings.Equity Ratings and Price TargetsMkt CapPrice Rating Price TargetCompanyTicker($ mn)CCYPriceCurPrevCurEnd DatePrev End DateCactus WellheadWHD US2,502.20USD33.32OWn/c36.00Dec-19n/cn/cCalfrac Well ServicesCFW CN306.34CAD2.78UWn/cn/cn/cMRC GlobalMRC US1,427.13USD15.

40、80OWn/c20.00Dec-19n/cn/cNCS MultistageNCSM US257.46USD5.72Nn/c6.00Dec-197.00n/cNine Energy ServiceNINE US762.01USD25.58OWn/c33.00Dec-1935.00n/cNoble CorpNE US834.16USD3.38UWn/cn/cn/cNOW Inc.DNOW US1,504.88USD13.88Nn/c13.00Dec-19n/cn/cOceaneeringOII US1,541.06USD15.64UWn/c15.00Dec-1916.00n/cOil State

41、s InternationalOIS US1,062.23USD17.71Nn/c19.00Dec-1920.00n/cPrecision DrillingPD CN629.69CAD2.81Nn/cn/cn/cSelect Energy ServicesWTTR US952.53USD8.92Nn/c10.00Dec-19n/cn/cTransoceanRIG US5,388.92USD8.84UWn/c7.00Dec-19n/cn/cTrican Well ServiceTCW CN189.65CAD1.29UWn/cn/cn/cSource: Company data, Bloomber

42、g, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 05 Feb 19.5Capital EquipmentNational Oilwell VarcoSchedule Details: Release: Wed 2/6 AMC; Call: Thu 2/7 11a ET; HYPERLINK /m6/p/ip6ysrgv webcastOur Take: The “correlation/causation” jokes aside, HYPERLINK /research/ArticleServlet?doc=GPS-28

43、27236-0&referrerPortlet=search_company NOVs Analyst Day again marked the onset of a precipitous drop in the oil price (as in 2014), and the $70 Brent framework for the preliminary 2019 guidance already makes the outlook appear stale. The anticipated 2H19 inflection in NAM completions activity and ex

44、pectation for larger offshore inbound to pull through backlog in late 2019 point to CAPS as the biggest candidate for a recut guide, though a flatter global spending trajectory in 2019 also likely deflates the pace of drill pipe demand and the land/offshore rig upgrade cycle. Street numbers have alr

45、eady drifted 6% lower to$1.1bn (v. $1.0-1.3bn guide), though we expect negative revisions to continue until consensus is closer to the bottom end of the range (JPMe $974mm). Recent capex cuts by diversified peers have raised investor concerns around the maintenance capital needs of NOVs customer bas

46、e in the current cycle, and well be curious for the companys take. 4Q looks okay, but 1Q at risk: Considering Wellbore is more driven by footage drilled than completions count, we think 4Q results should be relatively insulated from broader challenges in U.S. land, while backlog schedules should mos

47、tly de-risk the lower end of Rig Tech and CAPS guides. However, we think 1Q numbers are likely to come down as the bridge to consensus implies only a4% q/q decline (on 2% lower rev, -40bps margin) compared to a 13% average decline since 2013 (excluding 1Q16). Were 6% below the Street in 1Q (-3% rev,

48、 -30bps margin). Potential update to balance sheet strategy: NOVs $500mm share repurchase authorization at its Analyst Day was effectively a punt of the topic until 2Q/3Q19 in our view (looking prescient in only two months time). We think NOV bulls hopes for a cash return story have somewhat unravel

49、ed in sympathy with the recent oil price move as returning to an “optimal” 2x gross leverage before initiating the buyback now points to a 2020 event rather than mid 2019. We think the company has decent capacity to define its balance sheet strategy to appease investors (given the low end of 2019 gu

50、idance implies 1.4x turns of net leverage well within “comfortable” levels), and we will be keen to see if lower equity valuations push prioritization at all toward opportunistic buybacks and/or M&A (on top of budgeted$200mm of annual bolt-ons). NOV has a track record of augmenting its position thro

51、ugh downturns (as evidenced by its portfolio shift since 2014), and we think the stocks relative value could be dictated in large part by how the management team can thread the needle between growth and returns initiatives. Seller demands could soften in this environment as well.Table 2: 4Q18 Key Op

52、erating Metrics, JPMe v. Consensus4Q18Operating DetailsEstim ates4Q18e Street v. StreetGrowth q/qJPMe StreetGrow th y/yJPMeStreetConsensu1mDeltas Revis ions3mDeltaEPS (Adjusted, diluted) Adjusted EBITDATotal Revenue$0.09 $0.082462472,193 2,1892%N/AN/A0%1%2%2%N/AN/A25%25%11%11%($0.01) (4)(10)-10%-2%(

53、$0.07) (24)(92)-47%-10%-4%0%0%0%EBITDA Margin11.2% 11.3%-10 bps-20bps -10bps120bps 130bps-10bps-60bpsTable 3: 1Q19 Key Operating Metrics, JPMe v. Consensus1Q19Operating DetailsEstim ates1Q19e Street v. StreetGrowth q/qJPMe StreetGrow th y/yJPMeStreetConsensu1mDeltas Revis ions3mDeltaEPS (Adjusted, d

54、iluted) Adjusted EBITDATotal Revenue$0.05 $0.072232322,090 2,140-27%-4%-2%-43%-22%-9%-6%-5%-2%123%132%39%45%16%19%($0.02) (12)(30)-22%-5%($0.06) (37)(124)-49%-15%-6%-1%EBITDA Margin10.7% 10.8%-20 bps-70bps -60bps250bps 270bps-40bps-100bps6Table 4: 2019 Key Operating Metrics, JPMe v. Consensus2019Ope

55、 rating DetailsEs tim ates2019e Street v. StreetGrow th y/yJPMe StreetConsensus Revis ions1mDe lta3mDe ltaEPS (Adjusted, diluted) Adjusted EBITDATotal Revenue$0.35 $0.619741,0778,820 9,078-43%-10%-3%N/AN/A11%23%7%10%($0.12) (72)(190)-17%-6%-2%($0.37) (194)(564)-37%-17%-6%EBITDA Margin11.0% 11.9%-80

56、bps40b ps 120bps-50bps-130b psSource for all tables: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: $ in millions except where noted.Table 5: National Oilwell Varco Quarterly Earnings: JPMe v. Sequential/Annual CompsRevenue BreakdownMix4Q18e3Q18q/q4Q17y/yRig Technologies*31%6706375%6149%Wellbore T

57、echnologies40%8668472%71521%Completion & Production33%724735-2%6905%Eliminations*-3%(66)(65)2%(50)33%Total Revenue100%$2,193$2,1542%$1,96911%Operating Income Breakdow nMix4Q18e3Q18q/q4Q17y/yRig Technologies*85%63588%4928%Wellbore Technologies64%474017%11326%Completion & Production55%4046-12%20102%Co

58、rporate and Other*-104%(76)(71)8%(58)32%Total Operating Income100%$74$731%$22235%Total D&A (incl. in COGS & SG&A)(172)(172)0%(175)-2%EBITDA2462450%19725%Margin11.2%11.4%-17 bps10.0%119 bpsInterest Income660%60%Interest Expense(24)(24)0%(25)-4%Equity Income(2)(2)0%(1)100%Other(10)(20)-50%(14)-29%Inco

59、me Before Taxes443332%(12)-464%Income Taxes*(8)(29)-73%1-886%Tax Rate18.0%87.9% -6,988 bps8.3%967 bpsNet Income3613479%(11)-425%EPS (Adjusted, diluted)$0.09$0.003179%($0.03)-423%Diluted Shares (Avg)3833830%3772%Operating Income M argins4Q18e3Q18q/q4Q17y/yRig Technologies9.4%9.1%29 bps8.0%141 bpsWell

60、bore Technologies5.4%4.7%68 bps1.5%386 bpsCompletion & Production5.6%6.3%-68 bps2.9%268 bpsCorporate and Other115.0%109.2%577 bps116.0%-100 bpsTotal Operating Income3.4%3.4%-3 bps1.1%224 bpsIncre/Decremental EBIT MarginsQ-QeY-YaY-Yevs . JPMeRig Technologies15%25%25%0%Wellbore Technologies35%24%24%0%