Q4背景深思熟虑

1、COREBIPS of InformationThinking through tricky 4Q18 set-upINDUSTRY UPDATEEquity Research18 January 2019Despite the early (relief?) rally to start 2019, we still sense a dichotomy between negative market sentiment and management pointing to healthy fundamentals. HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?con

2、tentPubID=FC2431729 INFO & HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2432149 EXPN showcased solid near-term momentum as they reiterated guidance but even INFO sounded rightfully pragmatic in managing to their guidance range, while EXPNs FY guide points to a deceleration of growth (lapping tr

3、ended data and 1x breachU.S. Business & Professional ServicesNEUTRALUnchangedFor a full list of our ratings, price target and earnings changes in this report, please see table on page 2.benefits). While a recession is not the base case for our BIPS names, we think most would concede that broader mac

4、ro growth is slowing, and there remain various geographic and political risks out of their control. This makes for a tricky set-up do they guide to a status-quo backdrop, which investors may not perceive as beatable anymore (think CTASs HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2429368 solid

5、 beat & raise in December)? or kitchen-sink with high conservatism, which could spark concerns around business deterioration (like ARMKs guidance on its HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2427093 12/11 IR Day)? Its a tough choice. We expect investors will arrive at their own conclusio

6、ns, but transparently laying out the moving pieces will be key.As we recently previewed, the trickiest set-up is for the HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2429785 Rating Agency & HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2430142 Credit HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?conte

7、ntPubID=FC2430142 Bureau names given their volume exposures which is why we lowered numbers broadly. EXPN results support our view that, along with TRU, they will pressure EFXs return to +MSD growth; and also supports our preference for FICO given the strong B2C results (+12%). Note: We already lowe

8、red MSCI numbers to reflect AUM declines, but HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2432054 BLK results (i.e. not as bad as feared) are a positive data point supporting our OW.Defensive (VRSK, ECL, BFAM) names and subscription-oriented companies (IT, TRI) should be fine, with a few nuanc

9、es to call out (incl. ADT): VRSK, TRI and BFAM recently gave updates on their business trends, and we see TRIs 3%+ (ex News), VRSKs 7%+ and BFAMs 6-8% organic top-line as achievable. ECLs momentum in 2H should allow for 5-6% revenue; +75bps margin & LDD EPS year with some questions around impact of

10、lower oil (we think net positive). That leaves us with IT, where we lowered numbers in our HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2427469 2019 outlook, which feel reflected in shares (-18% vs. SPX - 10% since 10/1); however, sensitivity around CEB acceleration remains high. Note: ADT/secu

11、rity could arguably be considered defensive, but overhangs remain (AMZN, PE/leverage, attrition); which is why we lower numbers and PT to $10.The stocks perceived to be cyclical are stuck in a hard place, exemplified by the minimal impact of WSCs solid HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID

12、=FC2430436 pre-announcement. As a result, having run past our PT, we downgrade EEX to UW. Near-term trends remain uninspiring, and by the time EEX regains credibility, we could be facing recessionary concerns (e.g. 2007-09 hurt sales - 15% vs. industry -10%). Upside risk lies in a strategic review (

13、65% PE owned).Lastly, other risks to point out: a) FX: Using HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2426135&restriction=DEBT Barclays latest FX forecasts, we broadly lower reported numbers (see page 2). b) Government shutdown: At Day 27+, hits on the margin are likely (see our HYPERLINK /

14、go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2429411 1/4 note). c) Accounting: SBC/tax impact with lower stock prices; lease accounting changes, 606 revenue recognition, etc. d) Brexit: See our HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2388031 UK exposures.U.S. Business & Professional Services Man

15、av Patnaik+1 212 526 2983 HYPERLINK mailto:manav.patnaik manav.patnaik BCI, USGregory Bardi, CFA+ 1 212 526 7188 HYPERLINK mailto:gregory.bardi gregory.bardi BCI, USRyan Leonard+1 212 526 2135 HYPERLINK mailto:ryan.leonard ryan.leonard BCI, USBarclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does a

16、nd seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment deci

17、sion.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 31.CompanyRatingPricePrice TargetEPS FY1 (E)EPS FY2 (E)Old New 16-Jan-19OldNew%Chg OldNew %Chg Old New %ChgU.S. Business & Professional ServicesNeu NeuSummary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in th

18、is Report (all changes are shown in bold) HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=ADT ADT Inc. (ADT)OWOW7.1412.0010.00-170.880.87-11.141.04-9 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=ARMK Aramark (ARMK)EWEW31.0035.0035.00-2.362.34-12.632.61-1 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=BFAM Brig

19、ht Horizons Family Solutions (BFAM)OWOW113.85125.00125.00-3.153.1403.553.52-1 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=ECL Ecolab Inc. (ECL)OWOW150.26165.00165.00-5.255.2405.955.86-2 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=EEX Emerald Expositions (EEX)EWUW13.3912.0012.00-1.311.31-1.231.23- HYPE

20、RLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=LAUR Laureate Education, Inc. (LAUR)EWEW15.2517.0017.00-0.52-0.5040.650.57-12 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=MCO Moodys Corp. (MCO)OWOW155.40165.00165.00-7.387.3907.907.90- HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=SPGI S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)OWOW18

21、5.00205.00205.00-8.458.45-9.209.15-1 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=WSC WillScot Corp (WSC)EWEW10.1712.0012.00-0.52-0.53-20.110.1318Source: Barclays Research. Share prices and target prices are shown in the primary listing currency and EPS estimates are shown in the reporting currency. F

22、Y1(E): Current fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research. FY2(E): Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research.Stock Rating: OW: Overweight; EW: Equal Weight; UW: Underweight; RS: Rating Suspended Industry View: Pos: Positive; Neu: Neutral; Neg: NegativeCONTENTS HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 A LOOK AT

23、OUR ESTIMATES INTO 4Q184 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 BIPS 4Q18 Estimates vs. Street4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 BIPS FY19 Estimates vs. Street5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 EEX D/G TO UW (FROM EW) AS SHARES LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 OF FAVOR6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Stumbles since IPO hurt investo

24、r confidence6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 .pushing any rebound closer to the next recession7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Risk to our call from potential strategic options8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 ADT LOWER PT TO $10; VALUATION STILL ATTRACTIVE10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 CALENDAR OF EVENTS11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark

25、9 January 2019 Earnings pick up in early Feb11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 APPENDIX12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Information Services Stock Performance12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Business Services Stock Performance13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 BIPS Sentiment Indicators (as of 1/16/19)14Bibliography: HYPERLINK

26、/go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2431729 IHS Markit Ltd.: Checking most of the right boxes, Manav Patnaik, 1/15/19 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2432149 Experian: 9% organic driven by US strength, Paul Sullivan, 1/17/19 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC242

27、9368 Cintas Corp.: Reiterate OW as relative outperformance vs. peers remains apparent, Manav Patnaik, 1/3/19 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2427093 Aramark: Still playing its own game, but. , Manav Patnaik, 12/12/18 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2429785 For You

28、r Information Services: Unsurprisingly weak Dec. for Ratings (MCO/SPGI) & HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2429785 Index (MSCI); lower #s, Manav Patnaik, 1/7/19 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2430142 TRU/EFX: Moving pieces point to conservative initial FY19 guidan

29、ce; FICO safer, Manav Patnaik, 1/9/19 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2432054 BlackRock, Inc.: Procyclicality + Mkt. Vol.= Bumpy Ride, Jeremy Campbell, 1/17/19 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2426135&restriction=DEBT FX & EM Macro Strategy Update, Marvin Barth, 12

30、/6/18 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2429411 BIPS of Information: U.S. Government #ShutdownStories, Manav Patnaik, 1/4/19 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2388031 BIPS of Information: Brexit Stage Left, Manav Patnaik, 5/18/18 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?con

31、tentPubID=FC2427469 BIPS of Information: Diversified & Defensive: 2019 Outlook, Manav Patnaik, 12/14/18A LOOK AT OUR ESTIMATES INTO 4Q18BIPS 4Q18 Estimates vs. StreetFIGURE 1BIPS 4Q18 Estimates vs. Street $M, except EPSRevenueOperating Income/EBITDAEPSBarclays EStreetBarclays EStreetBarclays EStreet

32、Credit BureausEFX (4Q18)$832$840(EBITDA)$269$278$1.30$1.32y/y:(1%)vs. Street:(1%)y/y:(8%)vs. Street:(3%)y/y:(7%)vs. Street:(2%)DNB (4Q18)$510$543(Adj OI)$178$200$3.35$3.64y/y:(3%)vs. Street:(6%)y/y:(7%)vs. Street:(11%)y/y:4%vs. Street:(8%)FICO (1Q19)$265$265(EBITDA)$78$72$1.48$1.42y/y:13%vs. Street:

33、-y/y:21%vs. Street:7%y/y:13%vs. Street:4%TRU (4Q18)$626$622(EBITDA)$246$245$0.63$0.63y/y:24%vs. Street:1%y/y:25%vs. Street:-y/y:26%vs. Street:-Diversified Information ServicesVRSK (4Q18)$614$614(EBITDA)$286$293$1.04$1.07y/y:8%vs. Street:-y/y:4%vs. Street:(2%)y/y:(23%)vs. Street:(3%)IT (4Q18)$1,089$1

34、,098(EBITDA)$214$223$1.20$1.25y/y:7%vs. Street:(1%)y/y:(3%)vs. Street:(4%)y/y:2%vs. Street:(4%)NLSN (4Q18)$1,653$1,657(EBITDA)$469$483$0.30$0.31y/y:(6%)vs. Street:-y/y:(19%)vs. Street:(3%)y/y:(65%)vs. Street:(3%)Financial Information ServicesMCO (4Q18)$1,086$1,122 (EBITDA)$482$518$1.63$1.68y/y:(7%)v

35、s. Street: (3%)y/y:(7%)vs. Street: (7%)y/y:8%vs. Street: (3%)SPGI (4Q18)$1,549$1,593 (OI)$765$776$2.16$2.19y/y:(3%)vs. Street: (3%)y/y:6%vs. Street: (2%)y/y:17%vs. Street: (1%)MSCI (4Q18)$356$361 (EBITDA)$181$193$1.22$1.30y/y:6%vs. Street: (1%)y/y:4%vs. Street: (6%)y/y:6%vs. Street: (6%)TRI (4Q18)$1

36、,547$1,539 (EBITDA)$237$218$0.04$0.06y/y:9%vs. Street:-y/y:(42%)vs. Street:9%y/y:(81%)vs. Street: (37%)Business ServicesECL (4Q18)$3,757$3,767 (OI)$609$609$1.53$1.55y/y:3%vs. Street:-y/y:5%vs. Street:-y/y:11%vs. Street: (1%)EEX (4Q18)$53$54(EBITDA)$9.6$7.2($0.01)($0.02)y/y:69%vs. Street: (1%)y/y:859

37、%vs. Street: 33%y/y:-vs. Street:-BFAM (4Q18)$472$481 (EBITDA)$95$95$0.83$0.84y/y:7%vs. Street: (2%)y/y:15%vs. Street: (1%)y/y:13%vs. Street: (1%)LAUR (4Q18)$931$913 (EBITDA)$232$224$0.29$0.30y/y:(26%)vs. Street:2%y/y:(34%)vs. Street:4%y/y:(56%)vs. Street: (4%)ARMK (1Q19)$4,127$4,209 (OI)$300$287$0.6

38、2$0.61y/y:5%vs. Street: (2%)y/y:22%vs. Street:4%y/y:14%vs. Street:2%Note: Our Adj. EPS estimates for NLSN may not be comparable with GAAP Consensus. Source: Company Reports, Refinitiv, Barclays Research. Revenue and Adj. Operating Income are in $M.BIPS FY19 Estimates vs. StreetFIGURE 2BIPS FY19 Esti

39、mates vs. Street $M, except EPSRevenueOperating Income/EBITDAEPSBarclaysEStreetBarclaysEStreetBarclaysEStreetCredit BureausEFXy/y:3,4571%vs. Street:3,533(2%)(EBITDA)y/y:1,1470%vs. Street:1,204(5%)y/y:5.65(1%)vs. Street:5.88(4%)DNBy/y:1,7211%vs. Street:1,785(4%)(Adj OI)y/y:4472%vs. Street:479(7%)y/y:

40、8.002%vs. Street:8.52(6%)FICOy/y:1,13510%vs. Street:1,1281%(Adj OI)y/y:23112%vs. Street:317(27%)y/y:6.9511%vs. Street:6.921%TRUy/y:2,64013%vs. Street:2,654(1%)(EBITDA)y/y:1,05315%vs. Street:1,0461%y/y:2.8013%vs. Street:2.81-Diversified Information ServicesINFOy/y:4,41010%vs. Street:4,458(1%)(EBITDA)

41、y/y:1,75012%vs. Street:1,764(1%)y/y:2.5511%vs. Street:2.55-VRSKy/y:2,5687%vs. Street:2,559-(EBITDA)y/y:1,2168%vs. Street:1,234(1%)y/y:4.5510%vs. Street:4.481%ITy/y:4,2808%vs. Street:4,322(1%)(EBITDA)y/y:7758%vs. Street:787(2%)y/y:4.108%vs. Street:4.23(3%)NLSNy/y:6,503(0%)vs. Street:6,514-(EBITDA)y/y

42、:1,9879%vs. Street:1,8935%y/y:1.40(35%)vs. Street:1.2413%Financial Information ServicesMCOy/y:4,6674%vs. Street:4,700(1%)(EBITDA)y/y:2,2486%vs. Street:2,267(1%)y/y:7.907%vs. Street:7.94(1%)SPGIy/y:6,5104%vs. Street:6,631(2%)(OI)y/y:3,0875%vs. Street:3,253(5%)y/y:9.158%vs. Street:9.21(1%)MSCIy/y:1,51

43、66%vs. Street:1,535(1%)(EBITDA)y/y:8197%vs. Street:842(3%)y/y:5.8212%vs. Street:5.93(2%)TRIy/y:5,9478%vs. Street:5,936-(EBITDA)y/y:1,4309%vs. Street:1,4111%y/y:1.1080%vs. Street:1.27(14%)FDSy/y:1,4407%vs. Street:1,435-(EBITDA)y/y:4999%vs. Street:509(2%)y/y:9.6013%vs. Street:9.551%Business ServicesEC

44、Ly/y:15,2544%vs. Street:15,471(1%)(EBITDA)y/y:3,2307%vs. Street:3,301(2%)y/y:5.8612%vs. Street:5.90(1%)EEXy/y:3873%vs. Street:391(1%)(EBITDA)y/y:160(2%)vs. Street:163(2%)y/y:1.23(7%)vs. Street:1.26(2%)CTASy/y:6,8976%vs. Street:6,888-(EBITDA)y/y:1,49614%vs. Street:1,489-y/y:7.3825%vs. Street:7.341%BF

45、AMy/y:2,0588%vs. Street:2,071(1%)(EBITDA)y/y:3909%vs. Street:401(3%)y/y:3.5212%vs. Street:3.59(2%)LAURy/y:3,332(1%)vs. Street:3,394(2%)(EBITDA)y/y:6372%vs. Street:661(4%)y/y:0.57(214%)vs. Street:0.70(19%)ARMKy/y:16,0742%vs. Street:16,274(1%)(EBITDA)y/y:1,65617%vs. Street:1,678(1%)y/y:2.3411%vs. Stre

46、et:2.36(1%)Note: Our Adj. EPS estimates for NLSN may not be comparable with GAAP Consensus. Source: Company Reports, Refinitiv, Barclays Research. Revenue and Adj. Operating Income are in $M.EEX D/G TO UW (FROM EW) AS SHARES LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT OF FAVORStumbles since IPO hurt investor confidence.Si

47、nce its 2017 IPO, EEX has been unable to find its footing and has delivered a series of stumbles on most of its earnings as a public company. Our downgrade is a result of:Organic growth has not come close to reaching its promised potentialAt the time of its IPO, EEX pitched itself as a long-term +3-

48、5% organic grower, with a number of specific factors driving +8% growth in 2018. However on its 1Q17 earnings call (its first as a public company), EEX lowered FY17 organic growth expectations to 0-2% (from 3.5% at the time of the IPO), and its 2018 growth guidance was cut to 1% (as of 3Q18). Given

49、that the slowdown in organic growth is coming from its largest shows (ASD, NY Now), we dont see a return to LT +3-5% organic growth through at least 2020 (we model organic growth of -1.6/+1.5% in FY19/FY20), and think that investor scepticism will put EEX in a show me camp for almost all of 2019.FIG

50、URE 3EEX near-term and long-term framework at time of IPO vs. current estimates2.2x2.4x2.8x3.3x0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%46.4%43.5%41.3%41.9%1.5%-1.6%-0.3%0.2%Barclays Estimates20172018E2019E2020EHistoricalInitial 2017E OutlookLT Outlook time of IPORevenues9% CAGR from 2014 -2016, of which 4% has been organic

51、, 6% from acquisitions, and (1)% from discontinued activitiesExpecting organic revenue growth of 3 - 4%Targeting consistent mid single-digit year-over-year revenue growth supplemented by high-quality tuck-in M&AAdjusted EBITDAAdjusted EBITDA margin in excess of 45% for each of the last 3 yearsCapita

52、l ExpendituresMinimal capex requirement of less than 1% of revenuesExpecting margins of 45% due to public company costs and senior hiresMaintenance capex requirement below 1% of revenuesMaintaining industry-leading and stable margins in line with historical period; modest margin expansion expected d

53、ue to operational gearing as revenue growsSimilar maintenance capex requirements expected going forward (below 1% of revenues)LeverageReduced net debt by over 3.0 x from 2013 Onex Acquisition to IPOSource: Barclays Research, Company ReportsTarget net leverage of less than 3.5x Adjusted EBITDA after

54、IPOTargeting net leverage between 2.0 x and 3.0 x; will consider extending temporarily above 3.0 x for a strategically attractive acquisitionM&A has been mixed, with surprising focus on non-eventsAt the time of its IPO, EEX highlighted the fragmented nature of the $13.5B US B2B events market, where

55、90% of shows are owned by smaller groups. However through July 2018, EEX had announced just two deals, the SIA Snow Show (which in our view was more about acquiring location rights than a new, accretive show) and a non-trade show business (CPMG), leaving many investors rightfully questioning how ple

56、ntiful the market for M&A in the trade show business was. Additionally, EEX surprisingly chose to make a voluntary debt payment in 2Q, which frustrated some investors who believed that any incremental cash flows would be applied to accretive M&A. And finally, while EEX has seemed to get back into M&

57、A with its acquisitions of EH Media and BDNY, the former is made up of a large portion of digital media assets (i.e., not core B2B trade shows).Management change, despite being warranted, adds an overhangFinally, the recent retirement of CEO David Loechner does add an overhang as investors wait to s

58、ee who will be in charge of the company going forward. While Loechners industry experience was impressive (30+ years), given some of the internal issues that have plagued growth (selling issues, show timing, etc.), we would prefer someone with a stronger background in operational leadership to impro

59、ve execution and forecasting.pushing any rebound closer to the next recession.While we are not calling for a recession in our underlying assumptions, the reality remains that after 10+ years of expansion in the US we are likely closer to a recession than we were at the time of EEXs IPO. Events busin

60、esses tend to be very levered to GDP growth, and with EEXs internal struggles pushing out any recovery until 2020, our concern is that by the time they get things fixed, the economy may turn against them.As shown below, events businesses are cyclical business models that can be greatly impacted by r