电力设备与多产业：非住宅建筑季度报告

1、EE/MIQuarterly Check-Up: Non-Residential ConstructionNorth America Equity Research07 February 2019US non-res construction PIP data continued with consistent growth in 4Q18, similar to YTD trends. Top-down indicators, including ABI, Dodge, and credit metrics, remain somewhat mixed on net but overall

2、pointing to a positive outlook. Bottom-up vertical specific indicators remain solid on net. 4Q saw a continuation of solid trends in Office and Education, while Manufacturing is picking up and Healthcare is seeing some slowdown. Finally, overall tone from management teams on the state of the market

3、remains optimistic, with expectations for LSD- MSD type growth in 2019, solid but not necessarily differentiated vs the overall macro backdrop and other end markets. Within our coverage, companies with relevant non-res exposure overall include OWs HON, PNR, IR, HUBB and HDS, UW-rated JCI and WSO, N-

4、rated ATKR, LII, and WCC, and UTX (not rated).Non-res quarterly update. This quarterly report provides a detailed dashboard of macro data related to the US non-residential construction market, which is important to the EE/MI sector, with 15-20% of large-cap sales directly or indirectly related. In a

5、ddition to the commonly followed top-down data, we look at bottom-up drivers of construction activity with macro data across the major non-res verticals such as office, retail, and education. The delayed timingElectrical Equipment & Multi- IndustryC. Stephen Tusa, Jr CFA AC (1-212) 622-6623 HYPERLIN

6、K mailto:stephen.tusa stephen.tusa Bloomberg JPMA TUSA J.P. Morgan Securities LLCPatrick M. Baumann, CFA(1-212) 622-0160 HYPERLINK mailto:patrick.m.baumann patrick.m.baumannJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCAbhipsa Sahu(91-22) 6157-4230 HYPERLINK mailto:abhipsa.sahu abhipsa.sahuJ.P. Morgan India Private Lim

7、itedNicole Q Cai(1-212) 622-1050 HYPERLINK mailto:nicole.cai nicole.caiJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCof our report was one of the, albeit less important, casualties of the government shut down.EE/MI-related US non-res construction shows steady growth in 2018 YTD from 2017 levels. Construction put-in-pla

8、ce in key verticals, as measured by our JPM EE/MI Non-Res Index, was up 4% in Nov (+6.4% in Oct, +4.7% in 3Q18, +2.5% in 2Q18, +2.1% in 1Q18). Growth in Public markets (up 7% in Nov) outpaced private markets (up 3% in Nov). Among non-institutional verticals, office continued to be strong but deceler

9、ated a bit, up 9% in Nov vs up 14% in Oct, up 12% in 3Q, up 10% in 2Q and up 4% in 1Q. Commercial decelerated to -1% in Nov vs +2% in Oct, +1% in 3Q18, +3% in 2Q18 after decelerating from HSD levels in 1Q18 (+9% in 1Q18, +10% in 2H17). Among institutional verticals, Education picked up significantly

10、, up 9% in Nov vs up 11% in Oct, up 5% in 3Q18, up 1% in 2Q18, flat in 1Q18 and slight declines in 2H17, while Healthcare slowed further, down 4% in Nov vs down 2% in Oct, flat in 3Q18, up 1% in 2Q18, up 4% in 1Q18/2H17. Manufacturing was mostly flat in the second half of 2018, with Nov flat vs flat

11、 in Oct, up 2% in 3Q18, after remaining negative for more than 2 years (down6% in 1H18 vs down low teens in 2H17). The total non-res index, including all verticals like Power, Highway & Street and Transportation, was up 5.5% in Nov vs 6.7% in Oct, +7.2% in 3Q18, +4.8% in 2Q18 and +2% in 1Q18 after a

12、 decline of 2.5% in 2H17.See page 34 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interes

13、t that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / Top-down indicator trends mixed on net in 4Q18. As always, there were some puts and takes in leading indicators. The ABI remains solid, a

14、bove 50 for 22 out of the last 24 months, with Dec at 50.4 (54.7 in Nov, 50.4 in Oct, 51.1 in Sept), though Dodge new non-res contracts remain subdued with some lumpiness month to month (12-month rolling down 1% in Dec vs down 1% in Nov, down 3% in Oct,flat in 3Q18, +1% in 2Q18, +5% in 1Q18) post hi

15、gh-teens growth in 2017. The Dodge Momentum Index decelerated in 4Q18 after steady acceleration until Sept 2018, up 7% in 4Q on a 3mo rolling basis vs up 31% in 3Q18, up 20% in 2Q18, MSD in 1Q18. Credit conditions as measured by the FRB loan officer survey showed further tightening after recovery in

16、 tightening standards in 2Q18, with 12% showing tightening in 1Q19 vs 4% in 4Q18, 2% in 3Q18, 1% in 2Q18 and 10% in 1Q18/4Q17 while net % of respondents indicating stronger demand remained weak at -11% in 1Q19/4Q18 vs -7% in 3Q18, -8% in 2Q18 and -4% in 1Q18.vertical-specific, bottom-up forward indi

17、cators positive on net. The key index, non-res building construction employment, historically a good leading indicator for EE-MI vertical spending, showed a slight slowdown in 4Q, up 3.0% in 4Q vs up 4.1% in 3Q, 4.0% in 2Q18/1Q18. Looking across verticals, in Education, property tax receipts remain

18、solid with steady growth at 4.7% in 3Q18, vs 5.0% in 3Q18/2Q18 and 5.8% in 1Q18, similar to trends in employment, where there was some slowing in 4Q, while muni issuances recovered a bit after continued lumpiness. Across Healthcare, employment growth was steady (up 2.4% in Jan, vs up 2.4% in 4Q vs 2

19、.1% in 3Q18/2Q18/1Q18). In Retail, retail sales were solid with a slight slowdown at 4.4% QTD through Nov vs 4.7% in 3Q18,4.9% in 2Q18 with employment growth also showing some recovery after negative trends, up 0.2% in Jan vs flat in 4Q18/3Q18, 0.1% in 2Q18 and down0.4% in 1Q18. Finally, manufacturi

20、ng indicators remain positive with 12-month forward IP growing +0.8% in Jan vs +1.9% in 4Q (vs +1.0% in 3Q, +1.7% in 2Q,+0.4% in 1Q) while capacity utilization was up +1.2% y/y in 4Q (+2.1% in 3Q,+0.8% in 2Q18, +1.0% in 1Q18). Overall, our bottom-up index of all verticals is generally positive on ne

21、t.Company commentary points to a bullish outlook through 2019, with strength across manufacturing and commercial verticals. Commentary from companies continues to suggest a mostly solid tone, with most citing strong orders and favorable end-market dynamics into 2019, as supported by macro indicators

22、. Among EE/MI companies, IR sees a LSD-NSD market growth in commercial HVAC, WCC sees continued investment in non-res construction, HUBB sees LSD growth in non-res, JCI expects double-digit growth in light commercial business, and ATKR guided to the higher end of 2-4% growth with a positive outlook

23、on warehouses, offices and manufacturing. Among those who have provided guidance, expectations seem to point to LSD-MSD type growth in 2019. HDS guided to LSD-MSD growth, NCS expects low end of the addressable market of 2- 4% vs prior guidance of 3-6%, LII expects LSD growth in Commercial unitary sh

24、ipments. RXN sees stable growth in non-res building construction activity across commercial and institutional verticals. AYI issued a bullish outlook, supported by rising employment, declining vacancy rates, accelerating rental rates and absorption of real estate, while Geberit sees moderate institu

25、tional construction in North America and expects UK non-res markets to decline. Watts has a positive outlook in Americas on institutional and commercial but doesnt see a long cycle. SHW views a mixed bag in US architectural while expecting a pickup in commercial new construction, while Herc Holdings

26、 expects healthy construction spending despite shortages of construction workers. Masonite expects a slow start to 2019, and ALLE cited solid demand with strong institutional and commercial2projects, with possibility of decelerating growth. Most recently, commentary from this earnings season has so

27、far been mixed, with URI noting positive growth in its construction end market and ATI seeing strong sales growth in construction/mining, while SWK cited slowing construction markets in the US and Assa Abloy reporting stronger residential than commercial markets in the US and Mexico.3Table of Conten

28、ts HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Non-Res Construction Quarterly Review5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Summary of Put-in-Place Data6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Overall Market Indicators9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Bottom-Up Market Indicators16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Company Growth Rates284Non-Res Construction Quarterly Re

29、viewThis is a quarterly report that provides a detailed dashboard of macro data related to the US non-residential construction market, which is important to the EE/MI sector, as 15-20% of large-cap sales are directly or indirectly related to activity here. In this report we take a look at commonly f

30、ollowed top-down indicators such as the ABI, Dodge new contracts, Dodge momentum index, employment data, financial indicators such as the FRB loan surveys, the CRE Price Index as well as third-party forecasts. In addition, we look closely at the bottom-up drivers of construction activity with macro

31、data across the major non-res verticals such as office, retail, education, healthcare, and manufacturing. In the end, we take a look at growth rates of relevant company segments and their correlation with US non-res spending as well as summarize some interesting tidbits of news/comments related to n

32、on-res activity coming out of the quarter.Figure 1: EE/MI Non-Res Exposure%Other80-85%US Non-res 15-20%Figure 2: EE/MI Companies with Greatest Non-Res Related Exposure%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0% US non-res relatedIntl Non-res relatedSource: J.P. Morgan estimates.Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.JPM agg

33、regate non-res indicatorThe charts below highlight our aggregate non-res indicator as compared to our EE/MI non-res construction index. This indicator was directionally accurate through the 2002 downturn but failed to fully capture the cyclical downturn given noise around the healthcare sector (the

34、toughest to forecast with macro data).Our JPM aggregate non-res indicator was up 6.7% in Nov, vs up 6.8% in Oct, up 6.3% in 3Q18 and up 7.1% in 2Q18.5Figure 3: EE/MI Composite Non-Res Indicator Versus Construction in EE/MI Non-Res Verticals (Historical View)EE/MI Non-Res SpendingEE/MI Composite Indi

35、cator Figure 4: EE/MI Composite Non-Res Indicator Versus Construction in EE/MI Non-Res Verticals (Near-Term View)EE/MI Non-Res SpendingEE/MI Composite Indicator25%15%5%-5%-15%-25%Nov 98Nov 99Nov 00Nov 01Nov 02Nov 03Nov 04Nov 05Nov 06Nov 07Nov 08Nov 09Nov 10Nov 11Nov 12Nov 13Nov 14Nov 15Nov 16Nov 17N

36、ov 18-35%25%15%5%-5%-15%-25%-35%25%15%5%-5%-15%-25%-35%25%15%5%-5%-15%-25%May 09Nov 09May 10Nov 10May 11Nov 11May 12Nov 12May 13Nov 13May 14Nov 14May 15Nov 15May 16Nov 16May 17Nov 17May 18Nov 18-35%Total EE/MI Non-Res SpendingEE/MI Composite IndicatorSource: U.S. Census, J.P. Morgan.Total EE/MI Non-

37、Res SpendingEE/MI Composite IndicatorSource: U.S. Census, J.P. Morgan.Summary of Put-in-Place DataRecent growth trends: The EE/MI non-residential construction indexTo better reflect exposures for non-residential construction suppliers in the EE/MI sector, we take the US Census put-in-place data and

38、narrow them down to verticals that are primarily commercial buildings. We include office, commercial, manufacturing, lodging, education, and healthcare. We exclude categories such as power, highway & street, and sewage & waste disposal given these are less relevant for building suppliers.Table 1: Ca

39、tegories (Shaded) Included in EE/MI Non-Res IndexAug 2018, SAAR, $mmCategory$mmDescriptionFigure 5: EE/MI Non-Residential Index by CategoryTotal NonresidentialLodging751,49633,462Hotels, motels, resort lodgingManu uringfactLodging7%Office74,407Administration buildings, office/professional buildings1

40、4%Commercial87,459Retail, supermarkets, restaurants, mini-storageOfficeHealth care41,011Hospitals, clinics, labs, nursing homes16%Educational98,710All public/private education, libraries, museumsReligious3,075Churches, chapels, mosques, synagogues, and templesEducatioPublic safety9,486Police/fire st

41、ations, prisons, armories/military structuresnalAmusement and recreation27,631Stadiums, athletic clubs, movie theaters, meeting centers22%Transportation53,020Airports, runways, rail facilities, sea freight terminalsCommunication23,509Telephone, television, and radio, distribution structuresCommerPow

42、er98,348Generation, T&D, oil and gas storage and distributioncialHighway and street93,646Pavement, traffic lights, tunnels, bridges, retaining walls19%Sewage and waste disposal22,121Sewage treatment/disposal plants, drains, pump centersHealthWater supply13,240Water treatment and filtration centers,

43、reservoirs, tankscareConservation and development7,847Dams, levees, docks, sea walls, bulkheads, tide gates22%Manufacturing64,524Any manufacturing facility including chemical/refineriesSource: U.S. Census.Source: U.S. Census.Recent growth trends Total y/y construction put-in-place for EE/MI vertical

44、s was up 4% in Nov (+6% in Oct, +5% in Sept). 4Q QTD growth was up 5%, vs up 5% in 3Q18, up 3% in 2Q18, up 2% in 1Q18.6Figure 6: EE/MI Non-Residential Construction Index (Long-Term View)$ billionsTotal of EE/MI vertical s40035030025020015010050Nov 94Nov 95Nov 96Nov 97Nov 98Nov 99Nov 00Nov 01Nov 02No

45、v 03Nov 04Nov 05Nov 06Nov 07Nov 08Nov 09Nov 10Nov 11Nov 12Nov 13Nov 14Nov 15Nov 16Nov 17Nov 180PrivatePublicTotal Y/Y-30%-40%Table 2: EE/MI Non-Res Index ($bn SAAR)Y/Y Chg Nov 17Total373.0Private280.7Public 92.430%Dec 17378.7285.193.7Jan 18379.9286.093.920%Feb 18386.8293.293.610%Mar 18383.7290.193.7

46、0%Apr 18May 18382.0387.0287.3289.194.698.0-10%Jun 18384.6291.493.2-20%Jul 18383.5290.892.7Aug 18388.0291.296.8Sep 18386.1288.797.4Oct 18395.1293.9101.2 Nov 18388.8289.599.2Source: U.S. Census.Source: U.S. Census.EE/MI Non-Residential Construction Index (Short-Term View)Table 3: EE/MI Non-Res Index (

47、% Y/Y)$ billionsY/Y ChgTotalPrivatePublicTotal of EE/MI vertical s40035030025020015010050Nov 18May 18Nov 17May 17Nov 16May 16Nov 15May 15Nov 14May 14Nov 13May 13Nov 12May 12Nov 11May 11Nov 10May 10Nov 09May 090Source: U.S. Census.PrivatePublicTotal Y/Y30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40% Y/YY/YY/YDec 17-1%-2

48、%3%Jan 181%0%3%Feb 184%5%1%Mar 182%2%2%Apr 183%2%6%May 182%2%2%Jun 183%4%0%Jul 183%3%3%Aug 185%5%7%Sep 185%4%11%Oct 186%5%9%Nov 17-2%-3%2% Nov 184%3%7%Source: U.S. Census.Public versus private Private verticals within the EE/MI index (+3% in Nov, +5% in Oct, 4% in 3Q18) were slightly slower than pub

49、lic verticals (+7% in Nov, +9% in Oct, 7% in 3Q18) in 4Q QTD.7Figure 7: EE/MI Construction Put-in-Place IndexPublic vs. Private (Historical View)% Y/YFigure 8: EE/MI Construction Put-in-Place IndexPublic vs. Private (Recent View)% Y/Y40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%Nov 18Nov 17Nov 16Nov 15Nov 14Nov 13Nov

50、12Nov 11Nov 10Nov 09Nov 08Nov 07Nov 06Nov 05Nov 04Nov 03-40%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%Nov 18May 18Nov 17May 17Nov 16May 16Nov 15May 15Nov 14May 14Nov 13May 13Nov 12May 12Nov 11May 11Nov 10May 10-40%Private Y/YPublic Y/YPrivate Y/YPublic Y/Y

51、Source: U.S. Census.Source: U.S. Census.Total non-res constructionGiven below is the total non-residential construction for all verticals (as reported by the U.S. Census). As noted previously, many of these categories are less relevant for building suppliers given the inclusion of power/communicatio

52、n/water infrastructure. The number is more relevant as a general macroeconomic indicator, or for non- EE/MI companies serving a broader range of construction verticals. Total US non- residential construction was up 6% in Nov (vs. up 7% in Oct, up 7% in Sept and up7% in 3Q18).Figure 9: Total Non-Resi

53、dential Construction Index (Long-Term View)$ billionsY/Y ChgTable 4: EE/MI Non-Res Index ($bn SAAR)900800700600500400300200100May 04Nov 04May 05Nov 05May 06Nov 06May 07Nov 07May 08Nov 08May 09Nov 09May 10Nov 10May 11Nov 11May 12Nov 12May 13Nov 13May 14Nov 14May 15Nov 15May 16Nov 16May 17Nov 17May 18

54、Nov 180PrivatePublicTotal Y/Y40.0%Total Non-Res30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%Nov 17 Total712Private433Public 279Decanebarprayunulugepctov

55、ource: U.S. Census.Source: U.S. Census.8Overall Market IndicatorsArchitecture Billings Index (ABI)The ABI is a survey of architects (50 indicates growth) and has historically been a good directional indicator of overall construction activity, typically leading by 6-12 months. Over shorter periods of

56、 time, however, the index can often be volatile and not necessarily predictive of real activity levels. We look at both the overall ABI (which includes all verticals, including multi-family and mixed use) and the vertical- specific indices such as commercial & industrial (C&I) and institutional. Kee

57、p in mind that the sub-indices are reported on a three-month rolling average given smaller sample sizes.The overall reading was 50.4 in Dec, as compared to 54.7 for Nov, 50.4 in Oct and 52.0 in 3Q18.For the sub-indices, the Dec C&I reading came in at 51.2 (51.5 in Nov, 51 in Oct,51.5 in 3Q18); Insti

58、tutional came in at 53.1 (51.1 in Nov, 52.9 in Oct, 52.8 in 3Q18).Figure 10: EE/MI Non-Residential Construction Index vs. ABI (Historical View)ABIConstruction PIP, Y/YFigure 11: EE/MI Non-Residential Construction Index vs. ABI (Near- Term View)ABIConstruction PIP, Y/Y65.060.055.050.045.040.035.030.0

59、Total EE/MI-related ConstructionABI, overall25%15%5%-5%-15%-25%Dec 98Dec 99Dec 00Dec 01Dec 02Dec 03Dec 04Dec 05Dec 06Dec 07Dec 08Dec 09Dec 10Dec 11Dec 12Dec 13Dec 14Dec 15Dec 16Dec 17Dec 18-35%65.060.055.050.045.040.035.0Dec 18Jun 18Dec 17Jun 17Dec 16Jun 16Dec 15Jun 15Dec 14Jun 14Dec 13Jun 13Dec 12J

60、un 12Dec 11Jun 11Dec 10Jun 10Dec 09Jun 0930.025%Total EE/MI-related Construction ABI, overall15%5%-5%-15%-25%-35%Source: AIA, U.S. Census.Source: AIA, U.S. Census.9Figure 12: EE/MI Non-Residential Construction Index vs. ABI C&I and Institutional (Historical View)ABIConstruction PIP, Y/YFigure 13: EE