1月MCO、SPGI评级与MSCI指数

1、COREFor Your Information ServicesSigns of life in late Jan. for RatingsINDUSTRY UPDATEEquity Research8 February 2019(MCO/SPGI) & Index (MSCI)Credit Issuance (MCO/SPGI): After very weak issuance to end 2018 (4Q down 30%+), January (-10% y/y) started off slow but a pick-up in activity in the back half

2、 of the month is reason for optimism Most asset classes were down y/y (exceptions being U.S. munis and Euro IG), but note that January is already a typically slow month for supply and an improving issuance backdrop into February is supported by more M&A activity, stable equity markets, tighter sprea

3、ds, and a likely slowdown in Fed rate hikes. (March is typically the busiest month of 1Q as companies are largely all out of their earnings blackout periods.) but for conservatisms sake, we stick with +2% MCO/SPGI Ratings growth in 2019, which compares to S&Ps (0.6%) volume forecast and Barclays cre

4、dit teams at flattish. Note: MCO reports this Friday (2/15). Given weak 4Q issuance and SPGIs results (Ratings -16% in the quarter), we think a miss vs. guidance is largely expected (we model $7.39 vs. guided $7.50- 7.65). For FY19e, we look for guidance similar to what SPGI provided i.e., +LSD Rati

5、ngs growth; +MSD total organic; and +MSD/HSD EPS.Index & ETF AUMs (MSCI/SPGI): The market pullback in 4Q slowed results of the asset-based fee businesses of both MSCI (-1.5%) and SPGI (+4%), but positives still shining through a) even though market depreciation lowered ETF AUMs, both MSCI (+$25B) an

6、d SPGI (+$22B) saw net inflows in the quarter; b) Subscription revenues remained solid for both MSCI (60% of Index, growing +11.4%) and SPGI (20% of revs;+14%); and c) SPGIs derivative trading grew +41%, providing a natural hedge in volatile markets. And with the markets off to a solid start to the

7、year (e.g. SPX +8%; ACWI ex-U.S. +7% YTD), we believe both can continue to deliver steady performance.U.S. Financial Services Hiring (FDS/TRI/SPGI): Trends remain positive. Jan. hiring was up +2.4% y/y (5th straight month of 2%+ growth), with buy-side (+3.4% in Dec) and sell-side (+2.1%) both contri

8、buting. and while pressures remain, we maintain EW ratings on FDS/TRI. FDS delivered in-line F1Q19 (earnings 12/17) with +6.6% ASV+ Prof Services growth, and we think it screens as relatively defensive with a stable growth algorithm (+MSD organic; +100bps of margin expansion; +LDD EPS growth). For T

9、RI, we think recent relative outperformance fairly accounts for momentum at “new TRI”; optionality from the Refinitiv stub; and scarcity value for Canadian investors.Mortgage Originations (EFX/TRU/FICO): After 10%+ mortgage $-volume declines in 4Q, MBA is forecasting -2% declines in 2019 (+4% purcha

10、se; -17% refi). The forecast contemplates tougher comps in first half of the year (1Q -10%), but a slowdown in rate hikes could be a net positive for purchase/refi activity. Remember that EFX is the credit bureau with outsized mortgage exposure (20%), while EXPN/TRU/FICO all have 10% mortgage revenu

11、es. Note that non-mortgage credit trends remain healthy +5% in Dec (revolving +2%; non-revolving +6%).U.S. Business & Professional ServicesNEUTRALUnchangedU.S. Business & Professional Services Manav Patnaik+1 212 526 2983 HYPERLINK mailto:manav.patnaik manav.patnaik BCI, USGregory Bardi, CFA+ 1 212

12、526 7188 HYPERLINK mailto:gregory.bardi gregory.bardi BCI, USRyan Leonard+1 212 526 2135 HYPERLINK mailto:ryan.leonard ryan.leonard BCI, USBarclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be

13、 aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 33.CONTENTS HYPERLI

14、NK l _bookmark0 CREDIT ISSUANCE TRACKER & COMMENTARY3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 January issuance (-10% y/y): Some signs of life at the end of the month 3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 U.S. IG Corps (-5% in Jan): Tough comp, but healthy supply4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 U.S. HY Corps (-31% in Jan): Slow start to

15、the year5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 U.S. CLOs (-29% in Jan): Picked up at end of the month; record Feb17 comp6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 U.S. CMBS (-38% in Jan): Expected to pick up in February7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 U.S. ABS (-26% in Jan): Somewhat sluggish start to the year8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 U.S.

16、 Munis (+16% in Jan): Decent supply, easy comp9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Euro IG corps (+12% in Jan): Brisk start to the year10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 European HY (-68% in Jan): Continuation of weak trends11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 U.S. Historical Issuance12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 International Histo

17、rical Issuance13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 BARCLAYS/S&P FORECAST MODEST ISSUANCE DECLINES IN 201914 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 We model 2% Ratings growth for SPGI/MCO14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 .as S&P is forecasting (0.6%) issuance declines in 201914 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 .and our Barclays Credit team

18、is pointing to flattish15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 . and MCO too, anecdotally gave some similar color during 3Q earnings16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 More on our constructive long-term view of issuance16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 WHY WE THINK MSCI/INDEX REMAINS WELL POSITIONED19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 AB

19、F (20-25% of mix) active-to-passive trends in its favor19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Index Subscription (35% of mix) remarkably consistent performance21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 FIN. INFO HEALTHY DEMAND, BUT 2019 COULD GET TOUGHER.23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Securities industry (buy + sell side) above pr

20、e-crisis levels23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Buy-side Relatively healthy trends, but tough market backdrop now23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Sell-side Healthiest y/y hiring growth since Financial Crisis24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 How resilient have our market data names been?25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Janua

21、ry employment (+304k; 4%): Virtuous cycle continues unabated27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 OTHER MACRO-DATA TRACKER28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 MBA Originations (Re: CBs): Starting the year expecting -2% $-volumes in 2019; 1Q -10%.28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 C&I Loans (re: DNB): Growth is accelerating, led

22、 by small bank lending29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 Consumer Credit (EFX/TRU/FICO): Sequential slowdown in Dec. (+5%), but still healthy 30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 Small Biz Optimism (Re: DNB, EFX, EXPN): Weakens in Dec, still high historically31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 CALENDAR OF EVENTS32 HYPERLINK l

23、 _bookmark33 February 2019: Very busy month32Barclays | For Your Information ServicesCREDIT ISSUANCE TRACKER & COMMENTARYJanuary issuance (-10% y/y): Some signs of life at the end of the monthFIGURE 1U.S. High YieldU.S. Non-Agency CMBSU.S. Leveraged LoansU.S. CLOsU.S. Investment Grade2018 Issuance v

24、s. 2017 (in millions)201620172018y/y 2019y/y2016 2017 2018 y/y 2019 y/y2016 2017 2018 y/y 2019 y/y2016 2017 2018 y/y 2019 y/y2016 2017 2018 y/y 2019 y/yJan$155$219$156-29%$148-5%Jan$6$19$2428%$17-31%Jan$3$2$5167%$3-38%Jan$33$96$48-50%$32-33%Jan$1$2$7250%$5-29%Feb$113$92$10919%Feb$8$19$12-35%Feb$5$4$

25、524%Feb$18$43$5119%Feb$2$9$1678%Mar$135$145$122-16%Mar$18$43$27-38%Mar$8$9$98%Mar$25$71$59-17%Mar$4$9$1122%1st Qtr.$403$456$387-15%$148-5%1st Qtr.$32$80$63-22%$17-31%1st Qtr.$16$15$1932%$3-38%1st Qtr.$76$210$158-25%$32-33%1st Qtr.$7$20$3470%$5-29%Apr$122$101$13837%Apr$31$16$177%Apr$3$4$45%Apr$20$61$

26、59-3%Apr$6$10$1110%May$190$163$91-44%May$28$26$14-46%May$6$9$6-29%May$32$49$7349%May$5$10$1222%Jun$87$84$10627%Jun$22$20$15-24%Jun$2$11$129%Jun$69$55$6315%Jun$8$15$13-13%2nd Qtr.$399$348$336-3%2nd Qtr.$82$62$47-25%2nd Qtr.$11$23$22-6%2nd Qtr.$120$165$19518%2nd Qtr.$19$35$363%Jul$118$119$63-47%Jul$13

27、$11$7-32%Jul$6$7$814%Jul$21$45$40-11%Jul$6$9$1011%Aug$118$103$71-31%Aug$17$18$17-6%Aug$5$11$5-55%Aug$47$35$15-57%Aug$6$12$1417%Sep$156$146$139-5%Sep$25$37$36-2%Sep$9$9$4-56%Sep$55$22$4291%Sep$8$10$8-20%3rd Qtr.$393$367$273-26%3rd Qtr.$55$66$61-8%3rd Qtr.$20$27$17-37%3rd Qtr.$123$102$97-5%3rd Qtr.$20

28、$31$323%Oct$131$138$102-26%Oct$13$23$12-47%Oct$8$10$8-25%Oct$75$42$5531%Oct$8$12$9-25%Nov$73$117$88-25%Nov$15$26$6-77%Nov$12$10$6-37%Nov$43$51$25-51%Nov$9$13$12-4%Dec$39$42$12-71%Dec$19$18$0-100%Dec$9$9$5-44%Dec$66$35$30-14%Dec$10$9$6-33%4th Qtr.$242$298$202-32%4th Qtr.$47$67$18-73%4th Qtr.$29$29$19

29、-35%4th Qtr.$184$128$110-14%4th Qtr.$27$34$27-19%Full Year $504 $605 $560 -7%$574 2%Full Year $72 $119 $129 8%$123 -5%Full Year $1,436 $1,469 $1,198 -18% $1,163 -3% Full Year $216 $276 $189 -32% $190 1% Full Year $76$94$77 -18%$71 -8%U.S. Non-Mortgage ABS201620172018y/y 2019y/yU.S. Municipal2016 201

30、7 2018 y/y 2019 y/yEuro Investment Grade2016 2017 2018 y/y 2019 y/yPan-European High Yield2016 2017 2018 y/y 2019 y/yGBP Investment Grade2016 2017 2018 y/y 2019 y/yJan$11$18$2747%$20-26%Jan$26$36$22-40%$2516%Jan 35 62 52-16% 5812%Jan 1 6 65% 2-68%Jan2558%5-4%Feb$19$20$2420%Feb$32$23$18-24%Feb 51 45

31、37-18%Feb 2 8 3-59%Feb254-21%Mar$13$27$3426%Mar$43$33$26-20%Mar 81 67 670%Mar 11 12 9-29%Mar254-19%1st Qtr.$43$65$8530%$20-26%1st Qtr.$100$92$66-29%$2516%1st Qtr. 167 174 156-10% 5812%1st Qtr. 14 26 18-30% 2-68%1st Qtr.61513-11%5-4%Apr$14$24$22-8%Apr$35$31$323%Apr 66 24 4273%Apr 16 7 923%Apr254-13%M

32、ay$25$26$3325%May$42$39$35-9%May 73 70 44-37%May 8 3 456%May263-56%Jun$16$22$3040%Jun$48$40$33-16%Jun 25 54 35-34%Jun 5 9 6-37%Jun1552%2nd Qtr.$56$72$8518%2nd Qtr.$126$109$100-8%2nd Qtr. 164 148 122-18%2nd Qtr. 29 19 18-2%2nd Qtr.51512-24%Jul$23$17$2335%Jul$29$25$278%Jul 29 23 3553%Jul 3 7 4-41%Jul2

33、85-38%Aug$13$25$17-32%Aug$47$37$34-9%Aug 20 22 3770%Aug 2 0 1naAug9220%Sep$21$17$15-12%Sep$40$29$25-14%Sep 48 52 5915%Sep 12 11 8-25%Sep87822%3rd Qtr.$57$59$55-7%3rd Qtr.$115$92$86-6%3rd Qtr. 97 96 13136%3rd Qtr. 18 18 13-28%3rd Qtr.191715-8%Oct$28$35$374%Oct$54$39$37-6%Oct 48 29 24-20%Oct 5 13 3-78

34、%Oct263-55%Nov$14$27$16-41%Nov$32$44$28-36%Nov 41 55 49-11%Nov 3 7 4-41%Nov363-60%Dec$8$10$8-20%Dec$19$64$22-66%Dec 9 10 6-42%Dec 1 6 0-100%Dec210-63%4th Qtr.$50$72$61-16%4th Qtr.$105$147$87-41%4th Qtr. 98 95 79-17%4th Qtr. 9 26 7-73%4th Qtr.6136-58%Full Year$206$268$2856%$240-16%Full Year$446$439$3

35、38-23%$38012%Full Year 526 513 487-5% 5003%Full Year 70 89 57-36% 42-26%Full Year356046-24%5521%Source: Barclays Equity and Credit Research, S&P, MoodysU.S. IG Corps (-5% in Jan): Tough comp, but healthy supplyFIGURE 2U.S. Investment Grade Corporates Issuance Summary ($B) U.S. Investment GradeMarket

36、 Commentary:- January issuance was $148B (-5% y/y) - but also the strongest month since last January, and a good sign for improving market conditions. Non-corporate led gross supply, including $49B of investment grade debt2019E Forecast: Expecting modestdeclines(-3% y/y) - ratesare rising but fundin

37、g conditions still look favorable.2018 Recap: First year of y/y declines in 6 years2017 Recap: Another record year.2016 Recap: 4th straight record breaking year ($1.4B+; up 8%)2015 Recap: Up 16% over previous record 2014.2014 Recap: Another record year, beating out 2013 by 3%.Company Notes:MCO/MIS :

38、 U.S. makesup the lionsshare of itsrevenues (60%) and its Corporate Finance Group (CFG) is50% of mix 10% IG, 10% HY, 11% bank loans, and 19% other (including monitoring, commercial paper and MTNs).SPGI/S&P: While comparatively more geographically diverse than Moodys, U.S. still accountsfor 50%+ of r

39、evenues, and similarly corporate make up roughly 50% of mix.2015201620172018y/y2019*y/yJan$107$155$219$156-29%$148-5%Feb$117$113$92$10919%Mar$157$135$145$122-16%1st Quarter$381$403$456$387-15%$148-5%Apr$122$122$101$13837%May$155$190$163$91-44%Jun$101$87$84$10627%2nd Quarter$378$399$348$336-3%Jul$146

40、$118$119$63-47%Aug$52$118$103$71-31%Sep$109$156$146$139-5%3rd Quarter$307$393$367$273-26%Oct$113$131$138$102-26%Nov$97$73$117$88-25%Dec$56$39$42 $12 -71%4th Quarter$266$242$298$202-32%Full Year$1,332$1,436$1,469$1,198-18%$1,163-3%Annualized$1,332$1,436$1,469$1,198-18%*2019 FY based on Barclays Resea

41、rch EstimatesMonthly Issuance Tracker:Issuance by Quarter:250200150100500$BJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecFull Year4th Quarter3rd Quarter2nd Quarter1st Quarter$B05001,0001,5002,0002016201720182019*2016201720182019*Dealogic Comparison:Aug-17Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Ma

42、r-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-18Total Issuance ($bn)109136127121301349612212512612168931479810011116Y/Y(8%)(12%)24%54%(31%)(26%)2%(11%)49%(24%)28%(48%)(14%)8%(23%)(18%)(61%)(13%)YTD Issuance Tracking9951,1311,2581,3791,4091342303524776037247928851,0321,1311,

43、2301,242116Y/Y6%4%5%8%7%(26%)(16%)(15%)(4%)(9%)(4%)(11%)(11%)(9%)(10%)(11%)(12%)(13%)Number of Deals1882282072258619214817418020621210515824716616629140Y/Y13%(2%)21%76%10%(12%)(1%)(31%)43%(8%)16%(38%)(16%)8%(20%)(26%)(66%)(27%)Average Deal Size ($mn)58059661554034769765169969461057264859059759260139

44、6828Y/Y(19%)(10%)3%(12%)(38%)(15%)2%28%4%(17%)10%(16%)2%0%(4%)11%14%19%Note: Some differences in issuance numbers due to calculation methodologyNote: For more commentary on 2019 issuance forecasts, see a summary and links to our credit teams reports starting on page 14. Source: Dealogic, Barclays Re

45、search.U.S. HY Corps (-31% in Jan): Slow start to the yearFIGURE 3of the same trendsas 2018.especially in 1Q), followed by decent 2H. Still down -14% y/yU.S. High Yield Corporates Issuance Summary ($B)2015U.S. High Yield201620172018y/y2019*y/yCommentary:- December issuance totalled $17B (-31% y/y) -

46、 anJan$19$6$19$2428%$17-31%unsurprisingly slow startto the yeargiven recent volatility. EarlyFeb$31$8$19$12-35%February is often light aswell due to earnings blackout period.Mar$37$18$43$27-38%- 2019E Forecast - Expecting flat to modestly down , with many1st Quarter$87$32$80$63-22%$17-31%Apr$34$31$1

47、6$177%2018 Recap - Worse than expected (down 30%+).2017 Recap - Some recovery vs. a weaker 2015/2016 (and evenMay$34$28$26$14-46%stronger if we were to include leveraged loan issuance aswell).Jun$21$22$20$15-24%- 2016 Recap: Tale of two halves with weak 1H (risk off2nd Quarter$89$82$62$47-25%- 2015

48、Recap: Flat issuance in 1H and but down 35%+ in 2H,Jul$12$13$11$7-32%bringing issuance to $250B (-17%)- 2014 Recap: 3rd consecutive year of issuance above $300B.Aug$10$17$18$17-6%Sep$19$25$37$36-2%Company Notes:MCO/MIS : U.S. makesup the lionsshare of itsrevenues (60%)3rd Quarter$41$55$66$61-8%and i

49、ts Corporate Finance Group (CFG) is 50% of mix 10% IG,Oct$9$13$23$12-47%10% HY, 11% bank loans, and 19% other (including monitoring,commercial paper and MTNs).Nov$23$15$26$6-77%Dec$3 $19 $18 $0 -100%SPGI/S&P: While comparatively more geographically diverse than Moodys, U.S. still accounts for 50%+ o

50、f revenues, and similarly4th Quarter$35$47$67$18-73%corporate make up roughly 50% of mix.Full Year$252$216$276$189-32%$1901%Annualized$252$216$276$189-32%*2019 FY based on Barclays Research EstimatesMonthly Issuance Tracker:Issuance by Quarter:$B454035302520151050Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

51、Oct Nov Dec2016201720182019*Full Year4th Quarter3rd Quarter2nd Quarter1st Quarter$B01002003002016201720182019*Dealogic Comparison:Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17Nov-17Dec-17Jan-18Feb-18Mar-18Apr-18May-18Jun-18Jul-18Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Dec-18Jan-18Total Issuance ($bn)19.940.428.631.522.837.114.729.523.015.815

52、.78.417.819.018.5Y/Y7%31%69%102%21%30%(38%)(40%)(7%)(53%)(43%)(51%)(11%)(53%)(60%)(80%)(100%)(50%)YTD Issuance Tracking224.5264.8293.4324.9347.737.151.781.2104.2120.0135.7144.2162.0181.0192.3198.7198.718.5Y/Y25%26%29%34%33%30%(1%)(20%)(17%)(25%)(28%)(30%)(28%)(32%)(34%)(39%)(43%)(50%)Numbe

53、r of Deals35755369495934544237301728292115024Y/Y(3%)42%66%130%32%16%(24%)(38%)(22%)(39%)(43%)(56%)(20%)(61%)(60%)(78%)(100%)(59%)Average Deal Size ($mn)569538539456465628432545548428524496635656538428NA772Y/Y10%(7%)2%(12%)(9%)13%(18%)(3%)19%(23%)1%13%12%22%(0%)(6%)NA23%Note: Some differences in issu

54、ance numbers due to calculation methodologyNote: For more commentary on 2019 issuance forecasts, see a summary and links to our credit teams reports starting on page 14. Source: Dealogic, Barclays ResearchU.S. CLOs (-29% in Jan): Picked up at end of the month; record Feb17 compFIGURE 4U.S. Leveraged

55、 Loans & CLOs Issuance Summary ($B)U.S. CLOsCommentaryJanuary issuance was $5B (-29% y/y) amid volatility in the underlying leveraged loan sector. The market did pick up steamtoward the end of the month (when all the issuance occured). February of last year was the strongest CLO supply month of all

56、time.2018 Recap: A record year.2017 Recap: Approached record 2014 levels.2016 Recap: Decent end to the yearahead of risk retention rules, butstill anotheryear of y/y declines (-26%)2015 Recap : Down 20%+ y/y, with slow end to the year.2014 Recap: $124B of issuance broke record from 2007 ($99B)2013 R

57、ecap: $55B of issuance as CLOs steadily slowly recovered frommarket freeze in 2009.Company Notes:MCO/MIS : U.S. makesup the lionsshare of itsrevenues (60%) and its Corporate Finance Group (CFG) is 50% of mix 10% IG, 10% HY, 11% bank loans, and 19% other (including monitoring, commercial paper and MT

58、Ns).SPGI/S&P: While comparatively more geographically diverse than Moodys, U.S. still accounts for 50%+ of revenues, and similarly corporate make up roughly 50% of mix.2015201620172018y/y2019*y/yJan$5$1$2$7250%$5-29%Feb$8$2$9$1678%Mar$16$4$9$1122%1st Quarter$29$7$20$3470%$5-29%Apr$11$6$10$1110%May$6

59、$5$10$1222%Jun$13$8$15$13-13%2nd Quarter$31$19$35$363%Jul$7$6$9$1011%Aug$6$6$12$1417%Sep$6$8$10$8-20%3rd Quarter$19$20$31$323%Oct$7$8$12$9-25%Nov$4$9$13$12-4%Dec$8 $10 $9 $6 -33%4th QuarterFull Year$19$97$27$72$34$119$27$129-19%8%$123-5%Annualized$97.3$72.0$119.3$1298%*2019 FY based on Barclays Rese

60、arch EstimatesInstitutional Leveraged Loan Supply ($B) - as of 2/1/19Historical, Forecast, and Required CLO Issuance ($B)$B1401201008060402002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019eHistorical CLO IssuanceS&P ForecastDealogic Comparison for CLO IssuanceNote: Some differences in issuance num