中国耐用消费品：家电市场追踪

1、23 March 2020 | 6:10PM CSTChina Consumer Durables: Feb 2020 appliance tracker: Online outperforms; leaders gain shareIn this inaugural edition of our monthly appliance tracker, we look at key metrics including ex-factory shipment for major white goods, ofine & online retail sales trend for key appli

2、ance products, property sales and completion as well as key commodity prices. We summarize the key trends in Feb 2020 below.Not surprisingly, AC total ex-factory shipment volume declined by 41.5% in Feb, with 67.3% decrease in domestic market and 13.2% decrease in export due to the impact of COVID-1

3、9 on labour supply and logistics. Though Feb washing machines and refrigerators data has not come out yet, we expect a similar drop for these two categories. Factories are currently prioritizing export orders. We expect revenue growth for companies with higher overseas exposure to perform better in

4、1Q20 as export ex-factory shipment declined less than domestic shipment. Yet there will be increasing uncertainty on exports as the virus outbreak spreads globally.On retail sales, we have seen a general slowdown for most products in the ofine channel due to store closures. In online channels, despi

5、te soft performance of major white goods and traditional kitchen appliances, sales of dishwashers and small kitchen appliances grew signicantly in Feb as an increasing portion of the Chinese population has been staying at home. On ASP, we see the highest pricing pressure for AC whose ASP declined by

6、 c.30% in both ofine and online channels. Amid weak demand, market shares continue to concentrate towards leading companies. We highlight Haier, which is gaining online share in all major white goods including AC.On the property market, the ongoing property completion trend was disrupted as new comp

7、letions declined by 24% in Jan-Feb, which will have a negative impact on appliance sales to the developer channel in 1Q20. We expect the completion trend to resume as construction activities recover. We see limited cost ination risk as key commodity prices stay at low level primarily due to weak dem

8、and.We highlight Haier Electronics (Buy, on CL). Haier is strengthening its leadership in the core washing machine and water heater markets and also gaining share in AC where it used to be a laggard. It has limited revenue exposure (c.5%) to overseas markets. With 12-m forward P/E approaching histor

9、ical low, we reiterate Buy.Nicolas Yi+86(21)2401-8922 | HYPERLINK mailto:nicolas.yi nicolas.yi Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited85eece54d1d311da8b93b19a4ee6f6f1Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware

10、that the rm may have a conict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certication and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to HYPERLINK /rese

11、arch/hedge.html /research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US afliates are not registered/qualied as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.Ex-factory shipment: AC declined sharply due to COVID-19 disruptionAccording to China Industry Online (IOL), total AC ex-factory shipment volume declined b

12、y 41.5% in February 2020, a further slowdown from 30.9% in January. Domestic shipment volume declined by 67.3% compared to 13.2% decline in export. The sharper decline was caused by the COVID-19 outbreak disrupting labor supply, supply chain and logistics. From our conversation with companies, most

13、of them are prioritizing export orders over domestic ones because of order cancellation risk and weak domestic demand.On individual companies, Gree/Midea/Haier total (domestic) shipment declined by 55.3% (69.1%) /29.1% (66.2%) /22.4% (54.1%) in February. The smaller decline in total volume for Midea

14、 and Haier was supported by better export growth. However, we expect increasing uncertainty on exports as COVID-19s repercussions have been increasingly felt globally.In January, total ex-factory shipment volume (value term for VRF) for washing machines, refrigerators and variable refrigerant ow sys

15、tems (VRF) declined by 11.0%/17.0%/25.2% yoy due to the early Chinese New Year. February data will be released by end of March. We expect a similar drop compared to AC due to COVID-19 disruption.Exhibit 1: Domestic AC ex-factory shipment declined by 67.3% in Feb due to COVID-19 disruptionAC domestic

16、 ex-factory shipment vol. (LHS, 0000 units); yoy growth (RHS, %)Exhibit 2: Gree/Midea/Haier domestic AC shipment declined by 69.1%/66.2%/54.1% in FebruaryAC ex-factory domestic shipment yoy growth by company1200AC domestic shipment volume (in 10,000 units)yoy %20%100.0% AC Industry MideaHaier GroupG

17、ree10006.2%2.6%-2.1%7.9%-3.3%-7.8%0.6%8.1%1.4% 0.2%-2.3%10%0%-10%80.0%2019/12019/32019/52019/72019/92019/112020/160.0%800600400200-12.3%-33.8%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%-40.0%-67-7.30%0-80%JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB-60.0%-80.0%85eece54d1d311da8b93b19a4ee6f6f

18、1Source: IOLSource: IOLExhibit 3: Domestic washing machine ex-factory shipment declined by 8.5% due to early Chinese New YearWashing machine domestic ex-factory shipment vol. (LHS, 0000 units); yoy growth (RHS, %)Exhibit 4: Midea/Haier domestic washing machine shipment declined by 9.0%/7.8% in Janua

19、ryWashing machine domestic ex-factory shipment yoy growth by company500Washing machine domestic sales volume (in 10,000 units)yoy %10.0%15.0% WM Industry Midea/Little SwanHaier Electronics450400350300250200150-0.3%-2.9%8.0% 7.2%-3.7%2.6%-2.1%1.9%-3.7%-3.1%-1.3%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%10.0%2019

20、/12019/32019/52019/72019/92019/112020/15.0%0.0%-5.0%10050-5.1%JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN-6.0%-8.5-8%.0%-10.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%Source: IOLSource: IOLExhibit 5: Domestic refrigerator ex-factory shipment declined by 14.5% due to early Chinese New YearRefrigerator domestic ex-f

21、actory shipment vol. (LHS, 0000 units); yoy growth (RHS, %)Exhibit 6: Midea/Haier domestic refrigerator shipment increased by 35.7%/-11.8% in JanuaryRefrigerator domestic ex-factory shipment yoy growth by company450400350300Refrigerator domestic sales volume (in 10,000 units)yoy %15.6%4.9%20.0%15.0%

22、10.0%5.0%100.0%80.0%60.0% Fridge Industry MideaHaier Group250200-0.6%-2.3%-2.9%1.2%-2.6%3.1%4.1%-0.9%0.0%40.0%20.0%15010050-5.6%-4.4%-5.0%-10.0%-14-.155%.0%-20.0%0.0%-20.0%2019/12019/32019/52019/72019/92019/112020/1JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JANSource: IOLSource: IOLExhibit 7: D

23、omestic VRF ex-factory sales declined by 25.5% due to early Chinese New YearVRV domestic salesExhibit 8: Daikin/Hitachi/Midea/Gree VRF domestic sales declined by 32.0%/24.3%/17.6%/30.5% in JanuaryVRF domestic sales yoy growth by company6,0005,000VRV domstic sales (RMB mn)yoy % (RHS)13.5%20%15%VRF in

24、dustryDaikinHitachiMideaGree20.0%10.0%4,0003,0002,0001,000-10.0%-8.3%1.1%7.2%-1.6%3.4%2.4%6.1%6.4%9.0%8.9%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25-2.55%-30%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%85eece54d1d311da8b93b19a4ee6f6f1-40.0%2019-082019-092019-102019-112019-122020-01Source: IOLSource: IOL85eece54d1d311da8b93b19a4ee6f6f1Ret

25、ail sales: Online outperforming ofine; leaders gaining sharesWhite goodsAccording to All View Cloud (AVC), ofine white goods sales declined by 38%-59% in Feb, worse than 30% to -24% change in online channel. The better performance in the online channel is likely caused by more customers placing orde

26、rs online due to ofine store closures. With respect to the different product categories, AC was theworst-performing product category in the online channel despite similar performance in the ofine channel. We think part of AC demand might be front-loaded in the aggressive online promotion during “Sin

27、gles Day” (Nov 11) in 2019. AC also had the largest ASP decline (c. 30%) in both online and ofine channels, due to pricing competition among leading brands.With respect to online market share, according to Taosj, leading brands including Midea, Haier and Gree continue to gain market share from small

28、 players amid the demand slowdown. Haier gained the largest market share in AC likely due to its revampedvalue-for-money product strategy via its “Suprair” and “Leader” brands.Kitchen appliancesRetail sales for range hoods and gas stoves continued to decline in Jan-Feb, with Feb sales declining at a

29、 faster pace than Jan. Dishwashers were a bright spot in the sector with online sales growing by 93% in Feb. While ASP for most kitchen appliances remained largely stable in the ofine channel, we continue to see pricing pressure in the online channel due to weak demand and value-for-money brand seek

30、ing to gain share with c. 10% decline for most products.With respect to online market share, premium brands including Robam, Fotile and Siemens held their shares largely stable while value-for-money brands including Midea and Supor continued gaining share in a weak market.Small appliancesRetail sale

31、s for small appliances show a drastic comparison between ofine and online channels. Online sales grew by 24%-176% in Feb while ofine sales declined by67%-83%. High-speed blender was the best-performing product with a 176% online sales increase in Feb. The rapid growth in online sales may have been s

32、timulated by self-quarantines at home and restaurant closures since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in Jan. There is also pricing pressure for small appliances with prices of high-speed blenders decreasing by c. 25% in both ofine and online channels.With respect to online market share, the relati

33、ve ranking for leading brands remains largely stable in Feb. Midea and Joyoung gained signicant shares from Supor in the pressure cooker segment.Exhibit 9: Amid a general slowdown, dishwashers and small kitchen appliances are bright spots in FebOfflineCategory ValueASPCategory ValueASPWhite goodsACE

34、lectric water heaterJan-20-37%-13%Jan-20-40%1%Feb-20-38%-27%Feb-20-47%-2%RefrigeratorGas water heaterJan-20-25%5%Jan-20-40%0%Feb-20-60%2%Feb-20-47%-8%Washing machineJan-20-30%9%Feb-20-59%5%OnlineCategory ValueASPCategory ValueASPWhite goodsACElectric water heaterJan-20Feb-20-25%-24%-21%-31%Jan-20Feb

35、-207% 30%-6%-2%RefrigeratorGas water heaterJan-20Feb-20-2%-7%-6%0%Jan-20Feb-20-12%-12%-13%-11%Washing machineJan-20Feb-20-2%-9%-11%Kitchen appliances Range hoodJan-20-32%Feb-20-61%2%-2%Gas hobJan-20 Feb-20-29%-62%2%-2%Kitchen appliances setJan-20-34%Feb-20-48%8%-4%Jan-20Feb-2010%8%6%0%DishwasherJan-

36、20Feb-20-16%-12%-11%-13%Jan-20Feb-20-5% 12%-9%-7%Jan-20Feb-20-22%-29%Dishwasher 93%-4%-12%15Jan-20Feb-20-10%-13%Kitchen appliances setGas hobRange hoodKitchen appliancesSmall appliancesRice cookerHigh speed blenderJan-20Jan-20Feb-20-67%-24%Feb-20-67%-24%Pressure cookerSoymilk makerJan-20Feb-20-32%-7

37、3%8%Jan-202%Feb-20-62%-83% 17%8%Small appliancesRice cookerHigh speed blenderJan-20-4%-9%Jan-20 26%-31%Feb-20 24%0%Feb-20176%-25%Pressure cookerSoymilk makerJan-20-21%-15%Jan-20-21%-5%Feb-20 24%-7%Feb-20 24%-3%YoY monthly retail trends by categorySource: AVCExhibit 10: Leading brands continue to con

38、solidate the market and Haier emerges as a winner in online AC salesMidea Gree Haier AUXLeader1234533%18%4%20%na38% 3% 2%131318%1121%20%46%Feb-20 MoM Feb-19 Jan-20 Feb-20BrandsMarket shareRankingAC5%4%5%4%Summary of brand online performance by category: White goodsRefrigeratorRankingMarket shareBran

39、dsFeb-20 MoM Feb-19 Jan-20 Feb-20Haier128%Midea218%Ronshen311%35%17%11%31%17%12%Leader4naHaierLittle Swan Midea Leader AUX1234530%34%5%na9%na% 9%3%141518%17%37%Feb-20 MoM Feb-19 Jan-20 Feb-20BrandsMarket shareRankingWashing machine15%14%Konka5naWater heaterRankingMarket shareBrandsFeb-20MoMFeb-19Jan

40、-20Feb-2085eece54d1d311da8b93b19a4ee6f6f1n/a data not available in Feb 2019 Source: TaosjMidea 1Haier 2Vanward 3Chigo 4A.O.Smith 523%27%5%6%4%18%27%6%5%5%18%15% 6%na 5%Exhibit 11: Value-for-money brands continue to gain share in the online channel for kitchen appliances in FebRange hood & Gas hobRan

41、kingMarket shareBrandsFeb-20MoMFeb-19Jan-20Feb-20DishwasherRankingMarket shareBrandsFeb-20MoMFeb-19Jan-20Feb-20Summary of brand online performance by category: Kitchen appliancesMidea18%11%12%Midea124%36%30%25%26%na9%5%8%7%7%Supor2na10%10%Siemens228%Robam310%9%9%Joyoung38%Fotile412%8%9%Panasonic4naW

42、ifer5nana9%Haier517%Water purifierRankingMarket shareBrandsFeb-20MoMFeb-19Jan-20Feb-20Brita1na6%15%Midea211%12%11%Haier39%10%9%Joyoung4nana7%Xiaomi56%7%5%n/a data not available in Feb 2019 Source: TaosjExhibit 12: Relative ranking for leading brands remains largely stable for small appliances in Feb

43、Summary of brand online performance by category: Small appliancesRice cookerRankingMarket shareBrandsFeb-20MoMFeb-19Jan-20Feb-20High speed blenderRankingMarket shareBrandsFeb-20MoMFeb-19Jan-20Feb-20Supor 1Midea 2Joyoung 3Mijia 4Panasonic 5Joyoung 132%32%29%25%28%26%11%9%8%na4%6%na3%3%33%32%34%na10%2

44、0%4%12%7%8%8%7%nana5%AUX 2Supor 3Midea 4Hyundai 5Pressure cookerRankingMarket shareBrandsFeb-20MoMFeb-19Jan-20Feb-20Soymilk makerRankingMarket shareBrandsFeb-20MoMFeb-19Jan-20Feb-2085eece54d1d311da8b93b19a4ee6f6f1Midea 1Supor 2Joyoung 3Panasonic 4Olayks 5n/a data not available in Feb 2019 Source: Ta

45、osjJoyoung 131%40%41%47%38%32%13%17%22%nana1%nana1%82%70%78%6%6%9%na4%3%4%7%2%nana1%Supor 2Mokkom 3Midea 4Magsi 5Ongoing property completion recovery temporarily disruptedExhibit 13: Residential property sold volume decreased by 39.2% in Jan-Feb due to COVID-19 outbreakResidential property sold (LHS

46、, mn sqm); yoy growth (RHS, %)220.0%GFA sold-Residential (mn sqm)yoy5011.0%8.5%5.7%7.2%00 2.3%2.6%-4.4%2.8%-0.8%-1.3%2.5%1.9%2.7%-3.9%3.4%-1.8%4.6%4.4%2.9%0.6%-3.7%-3.2%500050-39.2%-10.0%20.0%1-10.0%1-20.0%-30.0%-40.0%-50.0%Source: NBSExhibit 14: Residential property completions declined by 24.3% in

47、 Jan-Feb after 17% increase in 4Q19Residential property completions (LHS, mn sqm); yoy growth (RHS, %)250GFA completed-Residential (mn sqm)yoy30.0%20019.8%20.9%20.0%150-2.6%5.6%-3.3%1.3%-1.6%-1.3%4.6%10.0%0.0%100-6.3%-7.3%-7.9%-8.0%-8.5%-17.1%50-13.9%-12.7%-23.1%-13.3%-15.1%-14.7%-26.5%-24.3%-10.0%-

48、20.0%85eece54d1d311da8b93b19a4ee6f6f10-30.0%Source: NBSLimited cost ination risk as commodity prices at low levelExhibit 15: Weekly CRC price declined by 5% yoy by March 12Steel-CRC price (LHS, RMB/ton); yoy growth (RHS, %)Exhibit 16: SHFE copper price declined by 16% yoy by March 18SHFE coppr price

49、 (LHS, RMB/ton); yoy growth (RHS, %)5,5005,0004,5004,0003,50030%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%3,000-20%60,00055,00050,00045,00040,00035,00030,00030%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%yoy %Steel-CRC price (RMB/ton)yoy %Cu price (RMB/ton)Source: WindSource: WindExhibit 17: SHFE aluminum price declined by 8%

50、yoy by March 18SHFE aluminum price (LHS, RMB/ton); yoy growth (RHS, %)16,00015,00014,00013,00012,00011,00010,00030%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%85eece54d1d311da8b93b19a4ee6f6f1yoy %Al price (RMB/ton)Source: WindSector performance & valuationExhibit 18: Our covered white goods companies corrected b

51、y c. 20% YTD, underperforming benchmark index1M and YTD returns of our coverage appliances stocksExhibit 19: Most major white goods and kitchen appliance companies valuations are at attractive levels with Haier Electronics and Hisense at historical lows12-m forward P/Es of our coverage companies vs.

52、 the historical range (since 2012)15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%35302520median PE+SD15HighCurrent10Low5median PE-SD1M YTD085eece54d1d311da8b93b19a4ee6f6f1Prices as of Mar 20, 2020 Source: WindPrices as of Mar 20, 2020 Source: WindThe author would like to thank Cecilia Tang for her contribution to

53、 the report.85eece54d1d311da8b93b19a4ee6f6f1Exhibit 20: Global appliances comp tableLastCompanyTicker PCY closing TargetUpside/Rating Mkt Cap priceprice (downside)(US$bn)18E-20E EPS CAGRP/EP/BEV/EBITDA2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020EChina appli

54、ancesMedian38%6.84%17.7x 13.8x 12.5x9.1x11.5x3.4x2.8x2.4x2.0 x1.8x8.0 x8.9x8.8x6.5x6.0 xMidea Group000333.SZ CNY49.0562.0026% Buy48.210%21.6x 18.6x 16.2x 14.3x 13.3x5.2x4.4x3.9x3.5x3.1x8.0 x10.8x 13.0 x 11.4x 10.7x Gree Electric000651.SZ CNY51.5771.0038%Buy*43.93%21.7x 13.8x 11.8x9.1x11.1x5.8x4.7x3.

55、4x2.7x2.5x3.2x4.9x 5.4x 6.1x 5.8x Haier Smart Home 600690.SS CNY 14.61 19.00 30% Buy 13.2 4% 17.7x 12.9x 12.5x 10.7x 11.5x 3.4x 2.8x 2.4x 2.0 x 1.8x 9.2x 7.7x 8.8x 6.5x 5.8x Haier Electronics 1169.HK HKD 18.86 26.00 38% Buy* 6.8 5% 15.3x 14.5x 12.8x 6.5x 11.6x 2.4x 2.1x 2.0 x 1.6x 1.5x 5.5x 7.3x 8.8

56、x 5.8x 6.0 x Hangzhou Robam 002508.SZ CNY 26.40 37.00 40% Buy 3.5 12% 20.8x 17.1x 17.0 x 15.8x 13.5x 6.1x 4.8x 4.1x 3.7x 3.3x 16.4x 22.1x 18.5x 12.9x 10.7x Hisense A 000921.SZ CNY 8.93 15.00 68% Buy 1.7 2% 11.2x 6.0 x 8.8x 8.5x 8.5x 2.5x 1.8x 1.7x 1.5x 1.3x 9.2x 16.0 x 9.9x 9.7x 10.8x Hisense H 0921

57、.HK HKD 6.58 11.00 67% Buy 1.2 2% 7.5x 4.0 x 5.9x 5.7x 5.7x 1.7x 1.1x 1.1x 1.0 x 0.9x 3.1x 8.9x 5.5x 5.0 x 5.8xChina small appliancesMedian-7%5.313%34.4x 36.0 x 30.2x 27.0 x 23.5x7.6x8.1x7.3x6.6x5.9x14.6x 18.4x 19.0 x 23.3x 19.5xSupor002032.SZ CNY65.6070.007%Neutral7.617%38.5x 41.2x 32.3x 28.0 x 23.

58、7x9.1x10.4x9.1x7.8x6.7x11.5x 18.7x 20.3x 23.4x 19.1x Joyoung002242.SZ CNY27.6122.00-20%Neutral3.010%30.4x 30.8x 28.1x 25.9x 23.3x6.2x5.9x5.6x5.3x5.1x17.6x 18.1x 17.8x 23.2x 19.9xGlobal appliancesLastCompanyTicker PCY closing TargetUpside/Rating Mkt Cap priceprice (downside)(US$bn)ROECROCIDividend yi

59、eldFCF yield2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2016A 2017E 2018A 2019E 2020E 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020EChina appliancesJohnson Controls International PlcJCIUSD25Not Rated23.09%10.8x9.6x8.8x8.4x7.4x1.0 x1.1x1.1x1.1x1.0 x12.8x11.2x9.7x8.2x6.7xMedian36%23.09%12.512.4x15.2x16

60、.3x15.6x3.8x2.5x1.7x1.7x1.7x11.6x11.2x10.8x11.9x8.9xWhirlpool WHRUSD74171 130%Buy4.88%5.3x 5.4x 4.9x 4.6x 4.6x 1.0 x 1.1x 1.6x 1.2x 1.0 x 8.0 x 9.0 x 7.6x 6.5x 3.9x A.O.Smith AOSUSD35389% Sell5.71%18.8x 16.0 x 13.3x 15.7x 15.2x 4.1x 3.7x 3.5x 3.5x 3.3x 13.5x 15.6x 15.5x 14.3x 9.6x Electrolux ELUXb.S