中国奢侈品：大陆人对奢侈品的需求有增无减

1、By: Erwan Rambourg and the Global Consumer and Retail TeamEquitiesConsumer & TechJanuary 2020 HYPERLINK / S P O TL I G H T China DeluxeAppetite for luxury from mainland Chinese continues unabatedOur third China Deluxe survey checks in on consumer aspirations for premium products in the Year of the R

2、atDespite headlines and investor concerns about trade tensions and slowing growth, consumers appetite for luxury still looks strongSee brand preferences and up-and- coming trends in luxury, technology, travel and gaming, beverages, cosmetics, and morePlay interview with Erwan RambourgDisclosures & D

3、isclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Why read this report?Our third China Deluxe survey checks in on consumer aspirations for premium products in the Year of the RatDespite

4、headlines and investor concerns about trade tensions and slowing growth, consumers appetite for luxury still looks strongSee brand preferences and up-and-coming trends in luxury, technology, travel and gaming, beverages, cosmetics, and moreChecking in on luxury consumption in mainland ChinaIn our th

5、ird China Deluxe survey, we survey over 2,000 wealthier respondents in mainland China to check in on their preferences for premium products. Our respondents were primarily young (54% ages 18-34) and female (65%). While the survey does not represent the views of the wider population, the results cont

6、inue toErwan RambourgGlobal Co-Head of Consumer and Retail ResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK mailto:erwanrambourg erwanrambourg+1 212 525 8393support themes we have developed in our respective coverage, notably that luxury consumption should remain strong this year. For our latest views o

7、n our luxury outlook, please see the note 4C: the future Consolidation, Chinese, Channels, and Conscience (7 January 2020).Key findings in this edition of our China Deluxe series:Still hungry for luxury: Despite investors fears around trade tensions and slowing economic growth in mainland China, our

8、 respondents are hungrier than ever for luxury, and theyre most excited about cosmetics, footwear, and apparel.Premiumization is still hot: We find that this younger, wealthier sample is excited about trading up to higher-end goods, evident in their preferences across multiple sectors, from luggage

9、to cosmetics and jewelry to beverages.Hong Kong falls from favor; France and other destinations in Asia gain ground. Four of the top five destinations for the year are near mainland China, and nearly all of our respondents are planning to travel abroad at least once this year.Take a look inside!Want

10、 to know what affordable handbag brand comes out on top, how respondents feel about Apple or cosmetics, how they prefer to buy luxury online, what they want to drink, what suitcase they will covet and a whole lot more? Dig in and have a look at the survey results you might be in for a few surprises!

11、Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250024 Why read this report?1 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250023 Mainland Chinas luxury consumers3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250022 Related research4Fun facts did you know that Chinese luxury consumers hadthis in mind?5Whats changed since last time?A few surprises6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250021 Know

12、 your respondents7 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250020 Macro: Upbeat on luxury8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250019 A slower economy, but sentiment upbeat for affluent class8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 Spending more on sustainability12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Luxury14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 The appetite for luxury is stronge

13、r than ever14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Apparel and footwear20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Handbags and leather goods22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 Watches and jewelry24 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Travel and gaming26 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Bitten by the travel bug26 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Gaming28 HYPERLINK l

14、_TOC_250009 Tech and internet30 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 5G and domestic premium phones are being favored30 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Intact e-commerce demand in China34 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Cosmetics, beverages, sports36 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Skincare and makeup36 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Beverage

15、s39 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Luggage41 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Sporting goods42 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Disclosure appendix45 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Disclaimer48We acknowledge the contribution of Akshay Gupta1, a senior associate in our India office, and Congxiao Zhang1, an intern in our Paris offic

16、e, in the production of this report1 Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations.Mainland Chinas luxury consumersStill hungry for luxury46%of our respondents usually spend more than 25% of their income on luxury products

17、70%of our respondents preferred Rolex, Omega, and Cartier for watch brandspremium beer and baijiuare preferred by our respondentsover more affordable options88%plan to spend at least the same oncosmetics, perfumes and skin care47%say they will consider plastic surgery. Korea remains the preferred lo

18、cation of surgery78%are likely to purchase an electricvehicle for their next vehiclePremiumization is hotTravel and gamingPrada is still the most preferred outerwear brand, and Louis Vuitton is preferred over some specialist brands in shoes and jewelryFor the next smartphone purchase, Huawei and App

19、le are the prefered choice, followed by Xiaomi. Samsung fell to sixth place90%are planning to travel outside mainland China at least once this year. Hong Kong loses ground to France and South Korea, but Japan is still the number one destination37% 36%36%32%29% 25%26%19%20% 19%18%28%6%JapanFranceSout

20、h Korea Singapore Hong Kong20202019Source: Toluna, HSBC estimatesHuaweiApple XiaomiFor gaming, respondents stronglyprefer the city of MacauRelated research4C: the future - Consolidation, Chinese, Channels, and Conscience, 7 January 2020Our luxury sector outlook for 2020 focuses on four trends that w

21、ill drive growth for the spaceLuxury Dj Vu - Different year, similar script, 8 September 2019In September 2019, we still have the same questions about the luxury sector that we asked in 2018“Deluxe” surveys focusing on luxury and premium goods:China Deluxe Checking in on luxury consumption in China,

22、 19 February 2019A year after our first China Deluxe survey, we found that mainland Chinese consumers luxury consumption still looks strong despite the headlines.US Holiday Deluxe - Anatomy of the US luxury consumer, 3 December 2018In December 2018, US consumers were not prioritizing luxury as much

23、as mainland Chinese consumers were, despite a positive outlook for the next year.Recent “Anatomy of the Consumer” surveys focusing on general consumer and retail trends:Korea: Anatomy of the Consumer - A tough environment but travel., 18 September 2019 In September 2019, Korean consumers were feelin

24、g optimistic about their financial standing despite a tough environment, and the outlook for travel was bright.India: Anatomy of the Consumer Welcome to the land of middle-class optimists, 8 April 2019 In April 2019, Indian consumers were feeling optimistic about the economy and their economic prosp

25、ects, believing they will earn more and spend more in the next year.Indonesia: Anatomy of the Consumer Optimists, but no big spenders here, 18 February 2019 In February 2018, we found that Indonesian consumers were expecting an increase in household income but were not willing to spend more, and upg

26、rading is not a priority.Recommended viewing.China DeluxeChecking in on luxury consumption in ChinaA year after our first China Deluxe survey, we check in on luxury consumption in mainland China to see whats changed19 February 2019Panda StaycationWhy China should grow at twice the global luxury mark

27、et paceChanges in the luxury market and in mainland China should support luxury growth1 April 2019Fun facts did you know that Chinese luxury consumers had this in mind?Living luxe - 46% of our respondents usually spend more than 25% of their income on luxury productsFear of the pink slip 53% of our

28、respondents rank job security as a top three concern detrimental to their consumptionTo travel is to live 58% of our respondents prefer traveling as one of the top three choices if their economic situation improvesWake up and makeup 88% of our respondents plan to spend at least the same on cosmetics

29、, perfumes and skin care as they did last yearGoing Green 78% of our respondents are likely to purchase an electric vehicle for their next vehicleOnline still dominant in mainland China 58% of respondents said that they prefer to buy luxury onlineSour Apples Huawei maintains its lead over Apple in m

30、ainland China, indicative that in smartphones, local brands have the upper hand for nowScale matters Louis Vuitton is preferred over some specialist brands in shoes and jewelryMacau is still king For gaming, respondents strongly prefer the city of Macau over other destinationsExpensive tastes premiu

31、m beer and baijiu are preferred by our respondents over more affordable optionsWhats changed since last time? A few surprisesMacro In a new question this year, we asked our respondents how much of their income they spend on luxury products in a year. 46% spend more than 25%!Sustainability Consumers

32、are paying more for sustainable products than they reported in our last surveyLuxury travel For purchasing luxury products and traveling in general, Hong Kong falls from first place last year, Japan and France gain steamHandbags and leather goods We introduced a question about premiumization and sec

33、ond- hand luxury, which surprisingly doesnt seem to be as big in mainland China as it is in the USJewelry We added generalist brands to our question this year, and generalists such as Louis Vuitton, Herms, Dior, and Chanel, were more favored by respondents than many jewelry specialist brandsSkin car

34、e and make up Chinese brands overtook US brands to rank fourth this yearTravel South Korea rebounds in popularity among survey respondents, coming in third place this year vs seventh place last yearSmartphone Oppo and Vivo were preferred to Samsung, unlike last year; 5G beats improved memory as the

35、key reason to upgrade a smartphoneSmart watch 84% of respondents are likely to wear a smartwatch vs 67% in our 2019 surveySporting goods adidas comes out on top once again, despite Nikes significant growth and market share in mainland Chinawe would have expected Nike to come out on topLuggage Rimowa

36、s brand preference rating stayed roughly the same from last year, despite heavy investment by parent company LVMHwe would have expected the brand to move higherGaming Of the respondents who plan to visit casinos, pockets seem to have become deeper since 2018Know your respondentsFor a breakdown of ou

37、r survey data by gender, age, and income, please contact us.Male35%Female65%Ages 35 and older 46%Ages 18-3454%GenderAgeSource: Toluna, HSBCSource: Toluna, HSBCAnnual household income24%50%26%RMB150,000-199,999RMB200,000-239,999RMB240,000+Source: Toluna, HSBCMacro: Upbeat on luxuryDespite a slowing e

38、conomy, the affluent class remains upbeat on future income levelswhich should help support consumption of luxury goods and services in 2020The consumption of experience goods like travel remain popular, while convenience takes on a larger role for luxury purchasesJulia WangSenior Economist, Greater

39、China The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:juliarwang.hk juliarwang.hk+852 3604 3663Erin XinEconomist, Greater China The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:erin.y.xin.hk erin.y.xin.hk+852 2996 6975Consumption was resilient in 2019 and

40、 was the main driver of GDP growthA slower economy, but sentiment upbeat for affluent classMainland Chinas economic growth rate has slowed over the last year, easing from 6.6% in 2018 to 6.0% in Q3 2019 as the continued (and sometimes disorderly) escalation of trade tensions with the US contributed

41、to weaker trade flows and a fall in business confidence. With With the recent trade deal signed by President Trump and President Xi on 15 January (Bloomberg, 15 January 2020), some of the pressure on mainland Chinas external sector should ease and the risk of further escalation in tensions be lowere

42、d. However, in our view, the limited deal is unlikely to fully restore business confidence and policy easing is expected to remain gradual. Thus, we expect growth will slow further to 5.8% in 2020 (China in 2020: Five key macro themes, 2 December 2019).In 2019, overall consumption remained more resi

43、lient and was the main driver of growth, contributing to over 60% of GDP growth for the first three quarters of the year. However, a continued slowdown in the economy for 2020 could put some downward pressure on the labour market, particularly for hard hit industries like the manufacturing sector, w

44、hich would in turn affect wages and consumption. But within the high income class that our respondents fall into, the outlook is fairly rosy. 81% of those surveyed expected an increase in income, with 24% expecting a substantial improvement in their incomes in the next year.Consumption accounted for

45、 over 60% of GDP growth in 201981% of surveyed respondents expect their income to increase0%16%24%57%Will improve substantiallyWill improve310 ppt contribution to GDP 86420-2Mar-15Sep-16Mar-18Sep-19 Final consumptionGross Capital Formation Net exportsWill remain unchangedWill declineWill decline sub

46、stantiallySource: CEIC, HSBCSource: HSBC, TolunaThis is markedly higher than last year where only 18% of respondents expected a substantial increase. This more upbeat survey result may be a reflection of a more resilient middle class (especially upper middle class) as overall income and wealth incre

47、ases. That said, the trajectory of future income may still be affected by a trade-tension-related impact on the labor market.Which of the following makes you more likely to purchase luxury or non-essential goods?47%17%14%13%5%3%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Increase inwages/salaryEasier access to e

48、-commerceStock market rally More brand options Rising home prices Easier access toloanSource: HSBC, TolunaThe rising cost of living has remained the primary inhibitor for consumptionWhen asked about factors which could limit future consumption, the rising cost of living has remained the primary inhi

49、bitor for consumption. However, against the backdrop of quickening structural changes, job security has risen considerably as an additional concern that could affect consumption patterns. 53% of respondents indicated job security as a top-three concern, which was 15 percentage points higher than las

50、t years survey. This brought job security to prominence, alongside poor financial market performance, unlike last year where it was a more distant concern.Which of the following factors will inhibit your consumption in the next year? Please rank your top three choicesRising cost of living Poor finan

51、cial market performanceJob security Rising housing prices Weak currency Saving for retirementDebtSource: HSBC, Toluna0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%1st choice2nd choice3rd choiceExperience goods are still highly preferredMore high income respondents would seem to favor convenience during their shopping e

52、xperienceOverall consumer preferences among the upper income class remain roughly in line with a year ago. Experience goods like travel remained the most anticipated purchase, followed by goods purchases on items like clothing, consumer electronics, and automobiles. Similarly, the reasons for purcha

53、sing luxury goods echoed last years sentiment as purchasing power remained the key driver for luxury consumption. Coupled with the upbeat sentiment on income levels, increased consumption of luxury goods and services among the affluent class is likely.Even when asked to consider the risks of a slowi

54、ng economy, more respondents said they would still spend more overall at 21% this year compared with 15% last year. Additionally, over a third of respondents reported spending one-fourth to one-half of their incomes on luxury goods. This suggests an increasingly resilient middle class as income and

55、wealth level increases, which is underpinning a strong demand for luxury products that will continue in 2020.Perhaps more interesting is the increase in preference for easier access to e-commerce as a reason for purchasing more luxury items, rising from 12% last year to 17% this year. The results su

56、ggest that more high income respondents are favouring convenience during their shopping experience. As a large portion of respondents are wage-earners who would typically work long hours, the ability to easily purchase goods and services plays a role in the facilitation of sales for this demographic

57、. Meanwhile, slower economic growth may mean more uncertainty in equity growth from the stock market. Fewer respondents cited a stock market rally as a means for increasing their consumption of luxury goods at only 14% compared with 19% last year.Though the overall economy is facing challenges to it

58、s growth in 2020, our survey results suggest that the high income class remains upbeat on future incomes and is likely to continue its luxury consumption. This paints a rosy picture for continued luxury purchases of goods and services within this income group.What is your primary source of income?Ho

59、w much of your income do you usuallySelf- employed 13%Investments 14%Family3%Wages 70%75-100%1%50-75%8%25-50%37%0-25%54%spend on luxury products in a year?Source: HSBC, TolunaSource: HSBC, TolunaIf your economic situation improves in the next year, what are the top three things you will buy? Please

60、rank top three.Travel ClothingConsumer electronicsAuto Education Entertainment Household appliancesHealthcareFast moving consumer goodsSource: HSBC, Toluna0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%1st choice2nd choice3rd choiceGiven risks of a slowdown in the economy, I:19%14%21%29%17%Plan to spend the same amount but