大市研判和行业轮动（四）：创业板还将维持强势

1、研究报告2020-2-22金融工程点评报告创业板还将维持强势大市研判和行业轮动（四）报告要点行业推荐电子、计算机和券商，主题推荐GaN 和SPACEX上证指数和上证 50 仍处于中枢震荡阶段，但后者有可能走出日线级别上升趋势，略强于前者，创业板指为周线级别上涨趋势，为三者中最强，其中创业板 50 又更强于创业板指。推荐行业为电子、计算机和券商，推荐主题为 GaN 和 SPACEX。分析师覃川桃（8621）61118766 HYPERLINK mailto:qinct qinct执业证书编号：S0490513030001分析师秦瑶（8627）65799830 HYPERLINK mailto:q

2、inyao qinyao执业证书编号：S0490513080002分析师陈洁敏（8621）61118706 HYPERLINK mailto:chenjm5 chenjm5执业证书编号：S0490518120005分析师刘懿（8621）61118705 HYPERLINK mailto:liuyi4 liuyi4执业证书编号：S0490518120004相关研究龙虎榜的机构席位溢价2020-1-20建议关注成长因子2020-1-19持股过节2020-1-16风险提示： 本报告结论均根据历史数据测算而得，未必与未来走势相符。大市观点上证指数大概率延续中枢震荡。图 1：上证指数日线走势资料来源：交

3、易开拓者, 长江证券研究所上证 50 已回到日线级别震荡中枢的上沿，有可能突破波动区间的上沿走出日线级别上升趋势。图 2：上证 50 日线走势资料来源：交易开拓者, 长江证券研究所创业板指大概率延续周线级别的上升趋势。图 3：创业板指周线走势资料来源：交易开拓者, 长江证券研究所市场热点以 2020/2/1 至 2020/2/21 为统计期，取区间最高价以及最高价之前的最低价来统计区间最大涨幅，只取起涨时成交额大于 3 千万的个股，结果如表 1。涨幅榜前 20 的个股大部分属于底部放量形态，我们的平台突破模型虽然意在抓平台突破形态的个股，但若最接近当前价格的阻力位较低，或是个股以连板形态强势突

4、破了高位平台，平台突破模型也会抓到部分短期强势也就是底部放量形态的个股。本期涨幅前 20 的个股中触发了平台突破信号的共计 12 个。表 1：2 月涨幅榜前 20属性名称突破日突破次日至最高涨幅最低到最高涨幅前最低价（元） 起涨时自由流通市值（亿） 起涨时成交额（千万）16.8611.7627.23.4%107容百科技科创10.019.5041.00.7%10778.51%20200109锦浪科技光伏屋顶29.3916.3234.43.2%110博瑞医药科创133.2263.3332.51.3%110%163.7320191212上海新阳芯软25.4811.5013.15.3%11246.03

5、%20200205方直科技云办公5.839.7912.47.8%11231.08%20200207上海沪工SpaceX34.1421.3313.37.7%11441.52%20200210台基股份芯软15.558.0910.80.3%11562.59%20200204朗迪集团-5.5023.763.69.3%11720.97%20200218乾照光电定增12.798.8019.70.7%123电声股份-5.8610.094.85%137.1.96%9820200122安居宝智能安防46.0423.459.43%145.8.30%9420200205天银机电SpaceX68.1750.324.6

6、9%147.5深康佳A芯软130.79.672763.00%149.2洁特生物科创31.4720.476.30%152.4%151.9820191225天华超净特斯拉6.6818.073.43166.5%新朋股份特斯拉4.85.52261.89168.8%.45%11320200107奥特佳特斯拉7.8851.3771.34171.9%公牛集团次新51.8320.1545.98174.0%优刻得科创10.7912.153.96247.0%235.94%20191220秀强股份光伏屋顶资料来源：Wind, 长江证券研究所二月热点集中在特斯拉相关。行业个股及选择由于底部放量模式成功率太低而通道加速

7、模式里可能已经持续通道上行了很久，我们估计 2020 年里平台突破仍是一个比较合适的捕捉趋势股的模式（2019 年涨幅前 100 的股票有 80 个起于平台突破形态）。我们在表 2 中列举了 2020/2/1 以后出现价格突破信号后最大收益最大的 20 个股。表 2：2 月价格信号突破前 20（市值/成交额单位：亿；收益单位：%）突破日期股票简称申万一级行业突破至今收益突破至今最大收益 突破日流通市值 当日成交额 成交额5日均值 成交额10日均值 成交额20日均值18.332.852.813.696.9277.69.793028.41申万化工飞凯材料202002140.961.111.782.

8、7059.35.0031申万传媒湖北广电202002110.540.540.720.3812.88.083122.83申万机械设备上海沪工202002071.752.122.922.1235.83.9134-6.06申万医药生物未名医药202002038.057.379.4411.37.2993.8135.3535申万有色金属赤峰黄金202002074.766.268.6114.67228.83.443630.06申万计算机卫宁健康202002051.722.022.070.7240.45.493626.18申万计算机华力创通202002060.961.252.022.4247.10.5836

9、28.10申万化工万盛股份202002130.500.691.223.0664.19.18375.88申万化工氯碱化工202002031.562.363.546.42.5592.203711.07申万医药生物海南海药202002051.081.412.013.9027.71.613914.82申万医药生物理邦仪器202002033.994.634.9110.2142.24.524127.22申万电子台基股份202002101.471.171.380.1319.3046.0314.59申万计算机方直科技202002051.761.892.412.6929.2046.171746.申万传媒国联股份

10、202002100.460.630.691.3831.2848.7311.11申万机械设备润邦股份202002060.250.270.280.129.3652.714.46申万传媒世纪天鸿202002050.330.380.601.0426.4262.590445.申万家用电器朗迪集团202002040.340.330.511.3916.0465.5658.01申万机械设备北玻股份202002130.700.700.980.6143.3875.4961.14申万化工道恩股份202002031.782.373.395.6646.7694.3091.95申万家用电器天银机电20200205资料来源

11、：Wind, 长江证券研究所我们将 2019 年 1 月至今有突破信号、且从高点下来回撤小于 10%的个股列于后表。表 3：电子行业价格信号突破（市值/成交额单位：亿；收益单位：%）突破日期股票简称申万一级行业突破至今收益突破至今最大收益 突破日流通市值 当日成交额 成交额5日均值 成交额10日均值 成交额20日均值 20200221 维科技术申万电子0.000.0024.142.311.681.49 1.5820200221铜峰电子申万电子0.000.0026.071.641.170.74 0.5120200221华正新材申万电子0.000.0076.043.552.942.41 2.252

12、0200221永新光学申万电子0.000.0020.032.160.990.68 0.5520200221易德龙申万电子0.000.008.180.570.480.38 0.3420200221顺络电子申万电子0.000.00191.8913.219.458.49 7.6620200221视源股份申万电子0.000.00354.956.253.513.46 3.2220200221英唐智控申万电子0.000.0049.404.743.512.45 2.0720200221金运激光申万电子0.000.0065.042.151.631.20 1.0220200221星星科技申万电子0.000.00

13、61.539.529.026.82 5.7920200221激智科技申万电子0.000.0029.165.973.882.92 2.0220200220奥士康申万电子2.044.4323.291.721.941.69 1.4420200220联合光电申万电子-0.392.1720.152.111.621.19 1.0220200220超华科技申万电子2.305.6643.635.203.272.23 1.7120200220京泉华申万电子2.258.1012.833.371.861.25 0.9220200219光弘科技申万电子16.1116.1149.188.015.704.03 3.362

14、0200219合力泰申万电子3.556.07185.2214.219.306.91 6.6020200219金安国纪申万电子1.745.0068.044.211.621.25 0.9720200219阿石创申万电子15.5521.0420.399.584.673.20 2.7320200218乾照光电申万电子20.9720.9742.661.731.500.94 0.6320200218卓胜微申万电子18.2018.59131.259.2610.219.41 8.0420200218士兰微申万电子8.3510.10258.4828.5427.7818.61 15.2620200218宏达电子申

15、万电子-0.401.8632.544.163.222.49 2.1220200218苏大维格申万电子3.476.7244.203.462.371.96 1.7820200218东尼电子申万电子-1.462.9421.912.461.461.39 1.3820200218诺德股份申万电子2.817.7769.2510.975.434.06 3.0420200218卓翼科技申万电子17.2222.4944.9012.095.924.34 3.8820200218博通集成申万电子-2.253.2045.369.227.495.27 4.4620200217海康威视申万电子6.268.123005.5

16、424.1518.8119.15 19.0920200217聚灿光电申万电子6.3113.9413.974.451.671.21 1.2220200214火炬电子申万电子24.7129.37114.395.364.923.49 2.9020200213江海股份申万电子17.2722.1667.283.902.211.86 1.4020200212洁美科技申万电子15.2816.5445.572.071.411.38 1.0420200212思创医惠申万电子8.5213.26106.777.886.294.68 3.2620200210鸿远电子申万电子12.6815.7423.656.622.9

17、52.01 1.7620200210民德电子申万电子7.7813.4712.631.690.860.70 0.6520200206和晶科技申万电子0.687.1132.165.122.202.28 1.9120200123长盈精密申万电子27.6027.60185.5213.129.117.87 6.3320200122经纬辉开申万电子-0.572.5516.540.640.310.28 0.2920200122卓翼科技申万电子17.9023.2044.394.443.973.99 3.1420200122国民技术申万电子8.1513.7840.442.302.272.07 1.6320200

18、122工业富联申万电子-4.391.37383.3918.2811.5910.73 9.8420200122东尼电子申万电子3.579.4921.152.661.521.11 0.8420200122上海贝岭申万电子12.0420.31129.4411.017.807.08 6.3420200120宏达电子申万电子4.056.4131.162.421.661.68 1.6020200120奥士康申万电子3.756.1822.762.031.401.44 1.4120200120歌尔股份申万电子9.6412.27639.1716.8313.2714.10 12.4720200120苏大维格申万电

19、子12.9516.5040.862.171.761.93 1.5120200120欧比特申万电子9.3313.4379.185.413.333.31 3.1820200120福日电子申万电子-3.201.1132.732.260.900.67 0.5220200117激智科技申万电子8.4312.1426.891.481.541.38 1.1620200116拓邦股份申万电子3.474.7351.252.492.072.08 1.8320200116春秋电子申万电子3.205.2415.381.030.720.82 0.9220200116德赛电池申万电子2.815.5395.256.094.

20、103.82 3.4920200116领益智造申万电子3.557.64219.4928.4214.1714.19 13.5820200115海康威视申万电子7.959.842963.1621.6215.6716.35 13.6920200115华体科技申万电子0.765.3219.120.520.610.63 0.5520200115202001132020011320200113202001132020011320200110英飞特 洁美科技深南电路易德龙 富瀚微 国星光电景旺电子申万电子申万电子申万电子申万电子申万电子申万电子申万电子13.4627.7132.94-1.1621.038.7

21、32.2018.3729.1235.031.1623.7811.504.6916.8840.53167.908.2722.5786.91299.571.110.5612.970.513.196.272.970.600.647.060.352.324.762.880.630.826.140.361.984.362.150.560.745.780.331.894.831.73资料来源：Wind, 长江证券研究所突破日期股票简称申万一级行业突破至今收益突破至今最大收益 突破日流通市值 当日成交额 成交额5日均值 成交额10日均值 成交额20日均值表 3：电子行业价格信号突破（续，市值/成交额单位：亿

22、；收益单位：%）20200110汇顶科技申万电子49.8253.981062.0217.968.678.027.8820200109茂硕电源申万电子-1.152.9219.781.631.361.131.4120200108得润电子申万电子7.6811.76 52.753.541.921.321.0420200108京泉华申万电子5.8311.8812.182.591.010.750.7120200108大恒科技申万电子0.997.0657.572.651.420.890.6520200106太极实业申万电子60.1661.88148.338.906.496.835.7420200106盈趣科

23、技申万电子42.6144.9079.453.102.221.711.8020200106立讯精密申万电子32.0534.622035.9328.4825.1920.1422.3920200106蓝思科技申万电子42.6345.64671.2915.8210.268.098.9420200106丹邦科技申万电子-2.362.6675.942.831.161.000.8420200106力源信息申万电子-2.055.5551.6911.895.314.164.6020200103华微电子申万电子44.8045.1066.196.844.863.843.3320200103永新光学申万电子8.921

24、0.2218.580.710.440.470.5020200103智动力申万电子17.3024.7020.075.053.392.762.6220200102大族激光申万电子2.1110.04415.046.424.804.575.54资料来源：Wind, 长江证券研究所突破日期股票简称申万一级行业突破至今收益突破至今最大收益 突破日流通市值 当日成交额 成交额5日均值 成交额10日均值 成交额20日均值表 4：计算机行业价格信号突破（市值/成交额单位：亿；收益单位：%）20200221中国软件申万计算机0.000.00421.6147.2029.5521.4618.3720200221佳都科

25、技申万计算机0.000.00178.9413.398.515.824.8920200221卫 士 通申万计算机0.000.00238.4310.788.727.535.8020200221深南股份申万计算机0.000.0019.072.312.041.791.3620200221达华智能申万计算机0.000.0060.185.304.893.743.1320200221同花顺申万计算机0.000.00395.1838.1125.1920.8516.1120200221朗科科技申万计算机0.000.0030.662.952.011.311.0020200221今天国际申万计算机0.000.002

26、0.551.861.561.201.0320200221数字认证申万计算机0.000.0086.397.295.654.953.7220200221彩讯股份申万计算机0.000.0048.012.861.781.541.2420200220万兴科技申万计算机11.4811.4842.696.233.752.772.4520200220雄帝科技申万计算机-0.091.8828.062.542.221.431.2020200220博彦科技申万计算机2.215.1150.445.464.863.713.0020200220鼎捷软件申万计算机3.637.2145.283.773.042.552.102

27、0200218初灵信息申万计算机14.9614.9623.512.802.142.521.6720200218赛为智能申万计算机2.487.4344.166.013.493.102.1820200217北信源申万计算机17.0817.0892.0810.149.4710.079.7620200217神思电子申万计算机5.416.1028.351.811.581.411.0920200217太极股份申万计算机7.359.36184.839.016.456.576.0120200217拓尔思申万计算机1.163.5472.463.952.382.212.0420200217思特奇申万计算机12.8

28、016.8719.881.130.900.800.6020200217和仁科技申万计算机-2.272.1639.961.611.871.751.2020200217中海达申万计算机3.098.2157.756.975.956.044.4920200217恒锋信息申万计算机5.2010.5311.131.551.251.461.0320200213四方精创申万计算机5.048.0183.0614.8410.718.409.0120200212东软集团申万计算机3.916.47166.975.794.773.732.7820200212易联众申万计算机11.1714.5540.484.523.10

29、2.302.0820200212迪普科技申万计算机11.1214.5716.462.672.001.561.3520200212合众思壮申万计算机6.379.8857.483.582.562.301.7320200212银信科技申万计算机4.588.2032.892.301.871.651.5520200212新开普申万计算机12.6918.4438.694.944.033.072.9220200212万达信息申万计算机0.006.34219.7510.149.376.345.5320200211数字政通申万计算机9.0214.4844.215.794.162.902.4020200211每日

30、互动申万计算机-4.792.7518.142.062.261.721.3520200207奥飞数据申万计算机13.1416.8022.856.092.711.801.6220200207久其软件申万计算机1.045.9747.496.474.073.712.7020200206久远银海申万计算机5.3011.5177.172.481.611.231.1620200205科大讯飞申万计算机7.8810.18706.7959.8833.9323.3120.9320200205立思辰申万计算机15.1818.36106.3110.015.806.014.7720200205飞利信申万计算机20.80

31、25.8850.585.543.733.682.9220200205卫宁健康申万计算机30.0636.44228.8314.678.616.264.76资料来源：Wind, 长江证券研究所表 4：计算机行业价格信号突破（续，市值/成交额单位：亿；收益单位：%）突破日期股票简称申万一级行业突破至今收益突破至今最大收益 突破日流通市值 当日成交额 成交额5日均值 成交额10日均值 成交额20日均值202002042020012220200122202001222020012120200120202001202020012020200120202001172020011520200115202001

32、15202001152020011320200113202001132020011320200113202001102020011020200110202001102020011020200109202001092020010920200109202001092020010920200108202001082020010720200107202001072020010720200107202001072020010720200107202001062020010620200106202001062020010320200103202001032020010220200102泛微网络恒生电子云赛

33、智联创业慧康威创股份鼎捷软件紫光股份浪潮信息绿盟科技博彦科技科大国创旋极信息同为股份赛意信息四维图新易华录 千方科技广联达 天泽信息拓尔思 深信服 捷顺科技三泰控股宇信科技新北洋 东软集团中科曙光美亚柏科信雅达 神州信息佳发教育格尔软件万兴科技航天信息新 大 陆朗玛信息用友网络创意信息恒锋信息飞天诚信科大讯飞启明星辰东方国信中远海科海量数据金财互联运达科技银信科技新开普申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算

34、机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机申万计算机9.9513.17-0.7426.5217.105.9326.7237.7325.9610.9020.9151.27-7.4927.362.4229.4312.2912.92-5.396.1461.5027.472.8414.396.1414.3137.6628.74-1.7715.545.7638.3324.070.799.2310.

35、9347.533.9417.32-0.3812.6123.2428.86-2.8260.7125.207.2616.2141.4014.4216.414.7935.8621.059.5830.7543.7632.4214.0326.2357.120.1535.982.4231.4216.4318.530.558.6465.9834.2412.5824.386.6117.1241.6833.323.7222.7910.5243.9424.073.0011.7913.8750.747.9723.276.4815.0125.7534.053.0765.7832.0215.2420.2448.6289

36、.13740.9098.70109.8446.8644.33711.96453.43155.3346.2440.3975.3815.7617.00280.13188.75210.61334.4943.3669.44265.9936.2265.54100.5381.91149.95342.12100.5645.91155.0054.1729.4137.74447.45185.5028.01769.2437.3210.0139.27679.58234.68118.2935.4112.1785.5337.2130.2427.421.5824.003.386.540.531.875.5322.013.

37、033.012.356.230.862.3115.203.4313.744.932.994.024.363.423.225.221.212.5120.462.752.509.644.003.094.084.4511.622.046.702.320.594.8845.475.286.330.482.785.380.721.801.230.8721.421.743.970.631.645.2315.461.902.301.953.140.661.1015.463.357.533.841.692.922.951.361.363.281.131.6412.532.502.056.561.881.702.474.865.681.358.082.010.544.4519.663.573.830.401.264.780.461.630.800.6417.071.593.150.871.725.1315.101.772.581.493.120.760.8312.952.745.743.211.492.682.360.910.922.170