华星化工估值模型

1、,3,现金流贴现估值（公司的自由现金流FCFF）,公司名称,华星化工,代码,002018,流通A股,2,000.00,流通B股,0.00,流通H股,0.00,总股本,6,500.00,A股股价,7.17,B股股价,0.00,H股股价,0.00,分析日期,2006/04/18,汇率,1.00,汇率,1.06,假设,数值,第二阶段(2010-2017)年数,8,第二阶段增长率,0.50%,长期增长率,0.00%,应付债券利率,0.00%,无风险利率Rf,5.00%,1.20 ,Rm,11.00%,Ke,12.20%,税率,32.73%,Kd,3.79%,Ve,46,605.00,Vd,20,552

2、.08,WACC,9.63%,第一阶段,2006E,2007E,2008E,2009E,2010E,FCFF,-5,234.40,5,472.26,10,466.73,12,028.23,12,747.72,第二阶段,2011E,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,2016E,2017E,FCFF,12,811.46 ,12,875.52 ,12,939.89 ,13,004.59 ,13,069.62 ,13,134.96 ,13,200.64 ,13,266.64 ,FCFF估值,现金流折现值（万元）,价值百分比,第一阶段,27,151.02,21.86%,第二阶段

3、,50,047.99,40.29%,第三阶段（终值）,47,005.30,37.85%,企业价值AEV,124,204.30,100.00%,+ 非核心资产价值,10,695.31,8.61%,少数股东权益,0.00,0.00%,都是净现金流的概念,净债务,20,552.08,-16.55%,总股本价值,114,347.53,92.06%,股本（万股）,6,500.00,每股价值（元）,17.59,敏感性测试,敏感性测试结果,长期增长率(g),WACC,-1.00%,-0.50%,0.00%,0.50%,1.00%,1.50%,2.00%,2.50%,3.00%,7.50%,22.07,22.

4、77,23.55,24.45,25.48,26.69,28.11,29.82,31.92,8.00%,20.62,21.20,21.86,22.61,23.46,24.45,25.59,26.95,28.58,8.50%,19.32,19.82,20.37,21.00,21.71,22.52,23.46,24.55,25.84,9.00%,18.15,18.58,19.05,19.58,20.18,20.86,21.63,22.52,23.56,9.50%,17.10,17.46,17.87,18.32,18.83,19.40,20.04,20.78,21.62,10.00%,16.14,16

5、.46,16.81,17.20,17.63,18.11,18.65,19.26,19.96,10.50%,15.27,15.54,15.85,16.18,16.55,16.96,17.42,17.93,18.52,11.00%,14.47,14.71,14.98,15.26,15.58,15.93,16.32,16.76,17.25,11.50%,13.74,13.95,14.18,14.43,14.71,15.01,15.34,15.72,16.13,12.00%,13.06,13.25,13.45,13.67,13.91,14.17,14.46,14.78,15.14,12.50%,12.

6、44,12.60,12.78,12.97,13.18,13.41,13.66,13.94,14.24,指标说明：, EV=股权价值+债权价值现金, EBITDA EBIT 折旧 摊销, EBIT 营业利润财务费用, NOPLAT EBIT （1所得税率） EBIT 所得税（只考虑核心业务，扣除非经常性损益）, IC（invested capital） 股东权益 长期借款 短期借款 应付债券 少数股东权益现金短期投资长期投资, ROIC NOPLAT / IC 100, OPFCF EBITDA 税收 净资本性支出 营运资本的增加, WACC (KeVe)（KdVd） / (VeVd), Kd 债务成本 平均债务利率（1税率）（短期借款短期借款利率长期借款长期借款利率长期应付债券长期应付债券利率）/（长期借款长期应付债券）（1所得税率）, Ve 股本价值 股价总股本（H股、B股按各自股价汇率转换为人民币计算，非流通股按A股计算）, Vd 债务价值短期借款长期借款应付债券, Ke Rf + (RmRf) , 营运资本 流动资产 流动负债, 公司自由现金流 FCFF EBIT（1-所得税率）折旧资本支出非现金