优秀英语课件APOOverviewInternalTrainingDemandPlanningOverview

1、优秀英语课件APO Overview Internal TrainingDemand Planning OverviewTraining Agenda Advanced Planner & Optimizer OverviewDemand Planning OverviewSupply Network Planning OverviewProduction Planning & Detailed Scheduling OverviewGlobal Available-to-Promise OverviewAPO Integration & CIF OverviewAPO Implementat

2、ion ConsiderationsObjectivesMain Goals of This Section To understand Demand Planning as an accurate forecasting tool in the APO context.To know Demand Planning main features, in concrete:Its architecture, data storage and representation attributesIts main tools (Planning Toolbox, Planning Environmen

3、t, Accuracy Analysis)The different forecasting methods availableTo visualize how DP applies to a real case (Sara Lee).To be aware of main considerations and complexity factors when implementing Demand Planning.To get familiar with the look of DP and its basic functions through a demo and practising

4、with simple exercises.Contents Demand Planning Features & CapabilitiesCase Study: Sara LeeKey Aspects to Consider When Implementing DPDP Demo: Accelerated Supply Chain Integration APO TemplateDP ExercisesDemand Planning Accurate ForecastingA toolkit of statistical forecasting techniquesTightly linke

5、d to the R/3 System and the SAP BW SAP (data can be automatically transferred)Tree selection and drill-down capabilities facilitates navigation through multidimensional data structuresUses the Alert Monitor to report exceptions Demand Planning Features and CapabilitiesPlanners KnowledgeTask-specific

6、 planning toolsFlexible viewsGraphicsPromotional planningLife cycle managementCannibalizationAccuracy reportingStatistical MethodsMulti-model approachAverage modelsExponential smoothingCausal factorsTrend dampeningModel combinationPick bestDemand Planning Data MartAnticipation ofFuture DemandInforma

7、tionCollaborative forecastsOrder & shipmentactuals & historyCostPOS dataNielsen / IRI data.Demand Planning Features and CapabilitiesCUSTOMERYEARSMONTHSWEEKSDAYSHOURSQUARTERSSELLHOLDMOVEMAKEDESIGNB2B ExchangesContract Manufacturers3PLs / 4PLsChannel PartnersB2B ExchangesBUYSUPPLIERProductionActivityC

8、ontrolOrder ManagementProcurementManufacturing Execution SystemLoadPlanningTransport PlanningDistributionRequirementsPlanningMaterialsPlanningProductionPlanningSupply DemandMatchingProductAllocation Sales ForecastingInventory Target SettingSupply ContractNegotiationsNetworkSourcingCustomer ServiceTe

9、rritory PlanningAvailable toPromiseIn-transit &On-hand Inventory TrackingMaterialInventoryTrackingNew Product DevelopmentLogistics Network DesignDetailedProductionSchedulingMaterial RequirementsPlanningAPO Demand Planning within Supply Chain PlanningDemand PlanningAPO DPSAP APO Demand Planning Archi

10、tectureDemand Planning is composed of three layers:Graphical user interfacePlanning and analysis engineData martPlanning ViewsGUIOLAPProcessorBusinessPlanningLibraryStatisticalForecasting ToolboxPlanning &AnalysisEnginePlanning AreaTimeSeriesCatalogNotesData MartDemand Planning Features and Capabili

11、tiesSAP APO Demand Planning Architecture (continued)Performance is of vital importance in any demand planning solution if users are to fully benefit from available informationDP architecture includes several features to ensure high performance:Dedicated serverMultidimensional data mart based on the

12、star schema that supports efficient use of storage space and of CPU cycles, minimizing query response timeBatch forecasting so do not impede online performanceThe size of the information treated depends on:Number of characteristics: many characteristics will let the user more flexibility to define t

13、he planning level and to review the information but it makes the system works slowerNumber of key figures: many key figures will give the user a lot of information related to forecast but it makes the system works slowerNumber of characteristic combinations: the time consuming for any calculation (e

14、.g. macros) depends directly on the number of characteristic combinationsNumber of planning versions: two planning versions needs double capacity than oneType and number of temporal periodsDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesData Storage and Representati

15、onMultidimensional Data Storage in the data mart allows to:View data and plan from many different perspectivesDrill down from one level to the nextInfo Cubes:A multidimensional data structureThe primary container of data used in planning, analysis and reportingContains two types of data, key figures

16、 and characteristics (or dimensions):Key figures are quantifiable values (e.g. sales in units, orders, shipments, POS)Characteristics or dimensions determine the organizational levels at which you do aggregation and reporting (e.g. products and customers)Info Cubes also share master data and descrip

17、tive text, which are stored in different tablesThe Online Analytical Processing processor:Models the business rules considering the aggregational behavior of key figures (e.g. sales summed by product and time)Guarantees that all business rules are met and the computed views present valid resultsData

18、 Storage and Representation (continued)Hierarchies are modeled as combinations of characteristic values (e.g. product are grouped into product family hierarchies) using proportional and temporal factors, in order to be used as the basis for aggregation, disaggregation and drilling down.The DP planni

19、ng level is based on the characteristics definition. In order to be more integrated with R/3 data, the dimensions and characteristics are usually based on R/3 hierarchies:Product dimension and characteristics are usually based on R/3 product hierarchyCustomer dimension and characteristics are usuall

20、y based on a R/3 customer hierarchyGeographic dimension and characteristics are usually based on the supply networkDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesDimensionsHierarchiesAttributesFactsTime Series ManagementNotesPromotionForecast99010002Life Cycletime sequenceAug.Sept.W32W33W34W35W36W37W38W39

21、W40W41124203MaterialCustomerPeriodProduct GroupsRegionsData Storage and Representation (continued)Time Series Management:Based on catalogs: time series data with related attributes (e.g. promotional patterns and life cycles)SAP DP allows to reuse time series saving time and ensuring consistency (e.g

22、. reuse a past promotional pattern to estimate the impact of a similar future promotion)Notes Management maintains all notes entered by planners to create an audit trail of all demand planning activities, which is specially helpful when multiple sources and people are involved (such as in consensus

23、forecasting)Demand Planning Features and CapabilitiesDimensionsHierarchiesAttributesFactsTime Series ManagementNotesPromotionForecast99010002Life Cycletime sequenceAug.Sept.W32W33W34W35W36W37W38W39W40W41124203MaterialCustomerPeriodProduct GroupsRegionsPlanning EnvironmentDPs rich planning and foreca

24、sting functions are based on the Statistical Forecasting Toolbox and the Business Planning Library. These functions include:Aggregate functions (sum, weighted sum, average)Disaggregate functions (quotas, proportional and equal distribution)Comparison functions (difference, ratio, percent, percent di

25、fference, share and correlation)Financial functions (conversion from units into revenue, currency conversion and business period conversion)Time-series functions (time-phased, average, and weighted average of time series)A Planning Book is an easy-to-use tree control for selecting data and a frame w

26、ith a grid and a graphical data display:Preconfigured planning books for promotional planning, causal analysis, statistical forecasting, life cycle management, etcThese can be used as guides for customized planning booksDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesPlanning Environment (continued)You can

27、 use Advanced Macros to:Calculate deviationsMake automatic correctionsCalculate sales budgetsDefine your own exceptional situationsLaunch status queriesAdvanced Macros models the calculations based on the individual business tasks to perform principally:Build a macro consisting of one or more stepsC

28、ontrol how macro steps are processed and how results are calculatedUse a wide range of functions and operationsDefine offsets so that the result in one period is determined by a value in the previous periodRestrict the execution of a macro to a specific period or periodsWrite macro results to a row,

29、 a column or a cellCreate context-specific and user-specific planning viewsTrigger an alert in the Alert Monitor to inform of particular business situationsIntegration with Microsoft ExcelDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesStatistical Forecasting ToolboxA Toolbox of all practical, proven forec

30、asting methodsTime Series Models:Uses past sales to identify level, trend, and seasonal patterns as a basis for creating future projectionsNave models, moving average, simple linear regression, Browns exponential smoothing, Holt-Winters, Box-JenkinsStochastic Models:Accurate forecast with sporadic d

31、emand patternCroston model uses exponential smoothing to estimate:The size of demand during periods in which demand occurThe demand frequencyFinal forecast are determined by distributing the size of demand according to the demand frequencyDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesForecastingStatistic

32、al Forecasting Toolbox (continued)Multiple Linear Regression:Technique for estimating the relationship between past sales and other causal factorsVariety of options to model linear and non-linear trends:Seasonal patternsLife cycle patternsDummy variables and time lagsCorrelation analysis corrects va

33、riablesPick-the-Best, applies the best method among:All of the available forecasting methods, orThe planner-specified forecasting methodsS-Shaped Curves supports complete lifecycle forecasting (introduction/growth and end-of-life phases)Logistic and exponential functions First estimation based on si

34、milar productsAdjusted over time when sales history is availableDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesCausal AnalysisIncludes all significant causal factors (price, number of displays, number of stores, temperature, working days) in the models and determine how they affect customers behaviorSimul

35、ate sales development according to the mix of causal factors (what-if analysis, marketing mix planning)Multiple linear regression to model the impact of causal factors 50F65 75 85 60Unit SalesFeb. Mar.April MayJune JulyAug. Sept.Demand Planning Features and CapabilitiesMulti-Tier ForecastingIntegrat

36、es sell-in data (like POS data) into the process of forecasting sell-through data (like shipments)Causal model based on significant causal factors to forecast POSSecond causal model is used to forecast shipments:Uses past POS data and the POS forecast as the main causal factorTakes the time lag betw

37、een POS and shipments into accountConsiders other causal factors (forward buys, trade promotions)POSDataManufacturingRetailerSalesHistoryConsumerPromotionAdvertisementtimeCompetitor PromotionsalesSell ThroughSell InConsumer demand+ Replenishment lead time+ Forward buying= Retailer DemandDemand Plann

38、ing Features and CapabilitiesData AnalysisIdentifies missing values and outliers in the data to improve the quality of the statistical forecast. Through the outlier, an automatic correction of historical data is done taking into consideration out-of-range data that may disturb the identification of

39、historical patternIdentifies structural changes in “established” patterns:Level, trend, and amplitude changesChange from unstable to stable behaviorAutomatic detection via tracking signalsAutomatic outlier detection & correctionManual interventionDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesPromotion Pl

40、anningImpact of promotions must be projected separately from standard forecast components that are based on historical sales dataTakes prices into account when doing profitability analysis for promotional calendarsReporting capabilities allow to track promotional activities and related costsArchives

41、 a promotion pattern in a promotion catalog, so it can be reusedSeveral techniques for estimating the effect of a promotionPromotionPlannerPromotion patterns97999800PriceQuantity-10%Forecast simulationProfitSalesDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesLife Cycle-ManagementA Demand Planning and Supp

42、ly Network Planning both components functionPlanning strategies for a product depend on the stage of its life cycle:Should the product be introduced, and when?How should a product be promoted during the different stages?Should the product be deleted, and when?Should a successor product be introduced

43、?Should a re-launch be started for a product, and when?What is the cannibalization effect of a new product with existing products? Etc.DP can represent the launch, growth and discontinuation phases by using phase-in, phase-out and like modeling profiles (or combining them):A phase-in pro demand hist

44、ory by ever increasing percentages during a specific period or periods (simulating upward sales curve launch and growth phases)A phase-out pro demand forecast of a product by ever decreasing percentages (simulating downward sales curve discontinuation phase)Like modeling creates a forecast using the

45、 historical data on a product with a similar demand behavior (new products and products with short life cycles)Product LaunchAggregateEnd of LifeDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesConsensus-Based ForecastingSAP DP supports consensus-based Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP)Multidimensional data

46、 structure of the InfoCubes enables to create multiple plans:Product levels for MarketingSales areas and account/channel for SalesDistribution centers and plants for OperationsBusiness units for FinanceSynchronizes multiple plans into one Consensus Plan that drives businessComposite Forecasting reco

47、nciles and combines different plans on same level and multi-levelsDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesForecast1n.Combine & ReconcileSales ForecastMarketing ForecastForecast Accuracy Analysis & Alert MonitorForecast accuracy reporting:Helps to assess the accuracy of past forecastsIntegrates this

48、 knowledge into projections for the futureStores a series of forecasts for a particular period and compares each deviation of this series to the actual values for the same period (mean absolute deviation, error total, mean percentage error, )Reports shoe forecast errors at any level and dimension:Ac

49、tual versus forecast Actual versus time-lagged forecastActual versus different planning versionsActual versus budgetAlert Monitor informs in real time via e-mail or exception message if an exception occursException conditions can be defined based on thresholds for special statistics and tracking sig

50、nalsReports can be sorted:By forecast errorRestrict them to products with a forecast error greater than a specified thresholdDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesAdvantages of SAP APO Demand PlanningGlobal server with a BW infrastructureIntegrated exception handling, creation of user defined ale

51、rtsIntegration with Production Planning (S&OP scenario)Main memory based planningFlexible navigation in the planning table, variable drill downExtensive forecasting techniquePromotion planning and evaluationCollaborative planning via the internetSupports Sales Bills of Material (BOMs)Demand Planning

52、 Features and CapabilitiesContents Demand Planning Features & CapabilitiesCase Study: Sara LeeKey Aspects to Consider When Implementing DPDP Demo: Accelerated Supply Chain Integration APO TemplateDP ExercisesCase Study: Sara LeeIntroductionMain objectives of Demand Planning for Sara Lee:S&OP purpose

53、s: Provide the essential input for S&OP monthly cycle (forecast) and create consensus within the OpCo. Demand Forecast should contain the required detail in order to compare with Business/Sales targets Supply Planning purposes: Provide updated forecast from different OpCos (in weekly buckets) to Sup

54、ply Planning in order to base Supply Planning on consolidated forecast from each OpCoBenefits of Demand Planning for Sara Lee:Improve the communication and transparency from all OpCos to CoEProvide to Supply Planning short and long term volume estimation for capacity planningCreate consensus in the

55、OpCo (together with S&OP) Understanding the demand of each OpCo through deep analysis (KPIs, market intelligence,)Move from ”Reaction on” toward ”Plan Activities” Improved customer service levelLower obsolete and safety stocksCase Study: Sara LeeProject ApproachA template has been developed in order

56、 to align, cover and support all the processes performed in the Sara Lee Opcos in Europe. In different phases, the Opcos will start to use the new template, changing their actual procedures and/or systems (local roll-outs).There will be a central team responsible of maintaining the basic and common

57、applications.In every roll-out a local team will be assigned to check that the requirements of the Opco are covered, to conduct the trainings, etc.Communication between local and central teams:Either in the central and in the local teams, there will be a member responsible of the communication betwe

58、en them. The communication link will be one-to-one.CUSTOMIZING: The local team will ask the central for customizing new structures.Every local roll-out will have a different copy of the “Implementation Guidelines”.GAPS: The local team will detect functionality not covered by the template, then, thes

59、e gaps must be written down in a document called “EuRoPe fit”.Both teams will have a meeting to determine how each issue in the “EuRoPe fit” must be solved.Initial training(central to local)EuRoPe fit sessions(local)EuRoPe fit analysis(central & local)GAP estimation(central)GAPs approval(project man

60、agement)Central GAPs design- Template development -(central)Local GAPs design(local)Case Study: Sara LeeProject Approach (continued)Procedure for the “EuRoPe fit” Analysis and Development:Case Study: Sara LeeDemand Planning ProcessesDemand Planning Processes are divided into three cycles:AOP/Outlook