CMA考试新考纲(官方)parttwo4(1)课件

1、1第四章：投资决策 Section D: Investment Decision 第1页，共46页。2资本预算流程 Topic 1: Capital Budgeting Process第2页，共46页。3资本预算 Capital Budgeting 流动投资 短期，当年结转冲销营运预算 营运活动的收入和费用计划资本投资 长期，初始现金流出随时间推移而逐渐摊销资本预算 长期资产的提议支出所制定的计划Current investment short-term, written off in the same yearOperating budget plan for operating expen

2、ses and revenueCapital investment long-term, initial cash outlay reduced over a period of yearsCapital budgeting plan of proposed outlays for long-term asset第3页，共46页。4资本预算 Capital Budgeting 资本预算编制的应用分类 扩张，重置，强制性，其他其他资本支出分类 效率和/或收入的产生，竞争效果，法规，安全，健康和环境的要求Capital Budgeting ApplicationsCategories expans

3、ion, replace, mandatory, otherAlternate capital classification efficiency and/or revenue generation, competitive effectiveness, regulatory, safety, health, and environment requirement第4页，共46页。5资本预算编制的项目纬度和时间纬度项目纬度时间纬度 货币的时间价值，889页资本预算编制的阶段划分资本预算编制的阶段划分 图表2D-1，889页Project and Time Dimension in Capita

4、l BudgetingProjection DimensionTime Dimension time value of money, page 377Stage of Capital BudgetingStages of Capital Budgeting figure 2D-1, page 378资本预算 Capital Budgeting 第5页，共46页。6增量现金流 Incremental Cash Flows评价资本投资现金流的关键点 890页资本预算项目阶段的现金流入和流出 图表2D-2,891页直接效应 现金流入，现金流出或承诺纳税效应 由纳税收入和可扣除费用引起净效应Key p

5、oints in evaluating capital investment cash flows page 378Cash inflows and outflow during a Capital Budgeting Project figure 2D-2, page 379Direct Effect cash inflow, outflow or commitmentTax Effect caused by the taxability of revenues and deductibility of expenses Net Effect第6页，共46页。7增量现金流 Increment

6、al Cash Flows初始期现金流资本预算项目阶段的现金流入和流出 图表2D-3，891页营运期现金流 营运期的增量现金流 图表2D-4，892页处置期现金流处置期的增量现金流 图表2D-5,892页Initiation Cash Flows Incremental Cash Flows at Initiation figure 2D-3, page 380Operation Cash Flows Increment Cash Flows During Operation figure 2D-4, page 380Disposal Cash Flows Increment Cash Flo

7、ws at Disposal figure 2D-5, page 381第7页，共46页。8增量现金流案例初始增量现金流 图表2D-6，893页净营运收入预测 图表2D-7，893页营运期和处置期的增量现金流 图表2D-8，893页预期增量现金流 图表2D-9，894页Incremental Cash Flow ExampleIncremental Cash Flow at Initiation figure 2D-6, page 382Projections for Net Operation Revenue figure 2D-7, page 382Incremental Cash Flo

8、ws from Operation and Disposal figure 2D-8, page 382Expected Incremental Cash Flows figure 2D-9, page 383增量现金流 Incremental Cash Flows第8页，共46页。9所得税考虑事项 Income Tax Consideration与折旧有关的税务规则存在的差异 894页可税前扣除的折旧金额折旧基数 在一定期限内为纳税目的而冲销的金额 折旧期三种技术 895页Tax rules pertaining to depreciation differ in the following

9、 way page 383Depreciation Amount AllowableDepreciable basis amount that can be written off for tax purposes over a period of yearsDepreciation Time PeriodThree main techniques page 384第9页，共46页。10所得税考虑事项 Income Tax Consideration折旧模式直线折旧法 895页加速折旧法 年数总和法，896页，余额递减法，896页，MACRS，897页折旧税盾作用Depreciation Pa

10、tternStraight-line Depreciation page 385Accelerated Depreciation sum-of-the-digits, page 385, declining-balance depreciation, page 386, MACRS, page 387Depreciation tax shield 第10页，共46页。11第二节：折现现金流分析 Topic 2: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis第11页，共46页。12规定回报率 Required Rate of Return使用以下标准来评价资本投资 初始现金流，预期

11、未来现金流入和流出，规定回报率规定回报率 选择一项投资时可接受的未来最低回报率Following criteria to evaluate a capital investment total initial cash flow for the investment, expected future cash inflows and outflow, required rate of returnRequired rate of return minimum future receipts the firms will accept in choosing an investment第12页，

12、共46页。13规定回报率 Required Rate of Return最低回报率资本成本资本成本的公式 902页加权平均资本成本公式 902页Minimum Rate of ReturnCost of Capital Formula for the cost of capital page 392Formula for the weighted average cost of capital page 392第13页，共46页。14净现值 Net Present Value 净现值 未来现金流的现值减去项目的初始投资现值计算现值(PV) = 现金流金额/(1+r)n1美元的部分复利现值系数表

13、 图表2D-11，903页Net Present Value present value of future cash flows less the initial investment in the projectPresent Value CalculationPresent Value (PV) = Amount of Cash Flow/(1+r)nPartial Present Value of $1 Interest Factor Table figure 2D-11, page 394第14页，共46页。15净现值 Net Present Value 净现值计算确定NPV的步骤

14、904页均匀现金流的例子 年金投资，图表2D-12，905页不均匀现金流的例子 905页净现值解释NPV的解释 906页Net Present Value CalculationSteps in determining NPV page 395Uniform Net Cash Flows Example annuity investment, figure 2D-12, page 395Uneven Cash Flows Examples page 396Net Present Value Interpretation NPV values may be interpreted page 39

15、7第15页，共46页。16内部回报率 Internal Rate of Return内部回报率（IRR）- 一个使净现金流入的现值等于初始投资的折现率对内部回报率的解释两个基本步骤 907页均匀净现金流的例子 907页不均匀现金流的例子图表2D-14，2D-15，2D-16，908页Internal rate of return (IRR) discount rate that makes the present value of net cash inflow equal to the initial investment Internal Rate of Return Interpreta

16、tionTwo fundamental steps page 397Uniform Net Cash Flows Example 398Uneven Cash Flows Example page 398, figure 2D-14, figure 2D-15, figure 2D-16, page 399第16页，共46页。17NPV和IRR的比较 Comparison of NPV and IRRNPV和IRR都考虑 货币的时间价值，期初现金投资，初始投资后的所有现金 两种方法都有可靠性方面的值得注意之处 909页只要没有以下方面的不同，NPV和IRR方法一般会产生相似的结果 909页Bo

17、th NPV and IRR consider time value of money, initial cash investment, all cash flow after initial investmentBoth methods have some reliability cautions page 400NPV and IRR methods will yield similar results as long as there are no differences page 400第17页，共46页。18第三节：回收期和折现回收期Topic 3: Payback and Dis

18、counted Payback第18页，共46页。19回收期法的使用 Uses of Payback Method均匀净现金流的例子 912页不均匀现金流的例子 912页回收期法的解释回收期法的优点和缺点回收期法的优点和缺点 图表2D-18，913页Uniform Net Cash Flows Example page 404Uneven Cash Flows Example page 405 Payback Method InterpretationAdvantages and Disadvantages of the Payback MethodAdvantage and disadvan

19、tage of the Payback Method figure 2D-18, page 406第19页，共46页。20折现回收期法 Discounted Payback折现回收期法 使用净现金流的现值，图表2D-19，914页Discounted payback method uses the present values of net cash inflows, figure 2D-19, page 406第20页，共46页。21第四节：投资项目排序Topic 4: Ranking Investment Projects第21页，共46页。22资本项目排序 Capital Rationi

20、ng 资本分配合理化 企业的投资有某种约束，图表2D-20，410页获利指数法获利指数法 图表2D-21，918页Capital Rationing some constraint on a firms investment program, figure 2D-20, page 410Profitability Index Profitability Index page 411, figure 2D-21, page 411第22页，共46页。23互斥项目 Mutually Exclusive Projects因为项目之间存在如下的差异，不同的分析方法产生相冲突的结果 现金流规模，净现金流

21、模式，使用寿命比较项目投资时所面临的问题 图表2D-22，919页Yield conflicting results because of project differences size of the cash flow, pattern of the net cash flows, length of the useful lifeProblems in Comparing Project Investment figure 2D-22, page 412第23页，共46页。24其他排序方法 Alternate Ranking Methods线性规划内部资本市场Liner Programm

22、ingInternal Capital Markets第24页，共46页。25第五节：资本投资的风险分析Topic 5: Risk Analysis in Capital Investment第25页，共46页。26敏感性分析 Sensitivity Analysis敏感性分析用于回答以下的问题 924页折现率的变化 图表2D-23，925页Sensitivity analysis used to answer questions such as page 418Changes in Discount Rate figure 2D-23, page 419第26页，共46页。27确定性等值 C

23、ertainty Equivalents确定性等值 预期现金流转换成实际上更可能实现的确定金额采取以下的步骤 926页案例 图表2D-24，927页Certainty Equivalent used to convert a projected cash flow into a certain cash flowFollowing steps page 421For example figure 2D-24, page 421第27页，共46页。28其他风险处理方法 Other Approach to Dealing with Risk资本资产定价模型模拟Capital Asset Prici

24、ng ModelSimulations 第28页，共46页。29使用专门调整的利率 Use of Specifically Adjusted Rates使用公司资本成本进行折现的问题 好的低风险项目可能被拒绝，不好的高风险项目可能被接受The problem of using firms cost of capital rate good low-risk projects may be rejected, poor high-risk projects may be accepted第29页，共46页。30资本投资的定性考虑事项 Qualitative Consideration in Ca

25、pital Investment定性的重要事项包括 929页Following important qualitative factors page 424第30页，共46页。31第六节：估值Topic 6: Valuation第31页，共46页。32价值元素 Elements of Value商业价值 商业价值包括 持续经营价值，清算价值，每股清算价值，账面价值，每股账面价值，市场价值和内在价值现金流的度量 933页Business of ValueBusiness value include - going-concern, liquidation value, liquidation v

26、alue per share, book value, book value per share of common stock, market value, intrinsic value, Measure of cash flow page 428 第32页，共46页。33规模，多样性和复杂性资产，收益和增长Scale, Diversity, and ComplexityAssets, Earning, and Growth价值元素 Elements of Value第33页，共46页。34估价工具 Valuation ToolsBetaBeta 与整个市场在某一特定期间的变动相比，特定股

27、票在同一期间内价格变动情况,图表2D-25，934页BetaBeta movement of the price of a particular stock compared with the movement of the market as a whole, figure 2D-25, page 430 第34页，共46页。35估价工具 Valuation Tools规定回报率 规定回报率 投资人预期可以从风险类似的其他资本投资中获得的回报，最低回报率折现现金流DCF计算 - 935Required Rate of ReturnRequired rate of return investo

28、r could expect to receive elsewhere for a capital investment of comparable risk, minimum rate Discounted Cash FlowDCF calculated page 231第35页，共46页。36资本资产定价模型资本资产定价模型 分析证券（尤其是普通股）风险和回报率之间的关系 风险溢价，Beta和SML 图表2D-26，936页Ke = Rf + B (Km Rf)，案例，936页Capital Asset Pricing ModelCapital asset pricing model an

29、alyzing the relationship between risks and rate of return on securities, especially common stock, Risk Premium, Beta, and SML figure 2D-26, page 432Ke = Rf + B (Km Rf), for example, page 432估价工具 Valuation Tools第36页，共46页。37现金流 Cash Flows现金流的重要性营运活动投资活动融资活动附注Importance of Cash FlowOperation Activities

30、Investing ActivitiesFinancing ActivitiesFootnotes第37页，共46页。38现金流 Cash Flows未来收益的数量、质量和变动性收益质量 收益质量的基本要素，938页收益持久性收益能力 两个考虑，939页现金流预测 间接法，939页Quantity, Quality, and Variability of Future EarningsEarning Quality basic factor of earning quality, page 434Earning Persistence Earning Power two considerati

31、on, page 435Forecasting Cash Flows indirect methods, page 436第38页，共46页。39现金流 Cash Flows折现率变化对现金流的影响使用资本成本作为折现所有新投资的准绳，双重问题，940页敏感性分析所得税的影响所得税在决策过程中的影响Impact of Changing Discount RatesThe use of cost of capital as yardstick to discount cash flow on all new investment, two problems, page 436Sensitivit

32、y AnalysisImpact of Income TaxesImpact of Income Taxes in the Decision Process第39页，共46页。40现金流 Cash Flows使用股利折现模型现金流的度量预期持有期间预计股利模式Use of the Dividend Discount ModelMeasure of cash flowExpected holding periodPattern of expected dividents第40页，共46页。41现金流 Cash Flows基本股利折现模型 942页 固定股利增长率下的股利折现模型 942页戈登模型

33、的关键要点 图表2D-27，943页Basic Dividend discount Model page 439The Constant Growth Dividend Discount Model page 439Gordon Model Key Points figure 2D-27, page 440第41页，共46页。42估值模型 Valuation Models市盈率在相对估值中一个分析师 944页市盈率 = 每股市价/EPSPricing Earning RatioIn relative valuation an analyst will page 441Price Earning Ratio = market price per share/EP