2020非洲建筑市场动态：打造疫情下具有韧性的供应链

1、ForewordThe COVID-19 pandemic has created an imperative to reconfigure the supply chain in capital projects by highlighting supply chain risks and disruptions. This offers an opportunity to transform how capital projects can be managed more effectively to deliver more value.01The COVID-19 pandemic h

2、as radically challenged project execution strategy to integrate supply chain, procurement and logistics during the planning process to achieve real-time visibility across the end-to-end supply chain and improve agility, productivity and stakeholder management. Hence, “Managing Supply Chain Risks and

3、 Disruption in Capital Projects” discussed in this years Africa Construction Trends (ACT) Report has become more important now than ever to re-think the entire project value chain from a supply chain perspective.At its core, the annual Africa Construction Trends Report tracks infrastructure and capi

4、tal projects (I&CP) activity in Africa. The report contains continental, regional and sectoral trends and includes projects US$50m in value that have broken ground by 1 June each year. This report also shows who owns, who funds and who builds projects. The analysis is complemented by an economic con

5、text section, focusing on Africas economic outlook.This years thematic section is focused on managing supply chain risk and disruption in capital projects insights based on project owners perspectives on their current COVID-19 supply chain transformation strategies and risk mitigation plans across t

6、he capital projects lifecycle.The increased awareness of monitoring information flow, creating visibility of supply chain for data- driven decision making and analysing the trends between globalisation and regionalisationis compelling businesses to pursue innovative ways to leverage supply chain int

7、egration with their capital project team to achieve efficiency in project execution and create a competitive advantage.The COVID-19 pandemic has raised questions around the resiliency of supply chain management and forced the realisation that the digital supply chain is the next frontier for organis

8、ations to optimise their capital project and operational value chains and improve supply chain performance. In todays globally connected and fast changing business world, supply chains have become more complex and intricate as organisations look for smarter ways to deliver their end-to-end supply ch

9、ain to achieve capital, operational and financial efficiency, competitive advantage and customer centricity.While managing risk and disruption in the supply chain can be complex, a successful outcome can be characterised very clearly and simply by:building a digitally enabled resilient supply chain

10、to proactively identify and manage riskimproving capital and operational efficiency through supply chain integration, while managing supply chain disruptionaligning skills and competency with the future of work to improve value deliveryre-imagining sustainability, local content upliftment and stakeh

11、olders value to make an impact that matters.Deloitte teams have advised on many of the worlds largest and most complex infrastructure and capital projects and haveextensive experience in taking clients through the digital supply chain journey. Our teams advise clients across the lifecycle of an infr

12、astructure asset and other large capital projects, enabling investors, project developers, project owners and operatorsin both the public and private sectors to take every step with confidence. With a presence in 34 countries and service to 51 countries, Deloitte is well positioned and understands t

13、he nuances of doing business in Africa.As a team we welcome your thoughts and considerations on this and future reports of this nature.Mahendra DedasaniyaDirector & Deloitte Africa Infrastructure & Capital Projects Leader Director: Digital Supply ChainContentsForewordAfrica construction in focus Afr

14、icas economic stance Regional construction in focusEast Africa Southern Africa Central Africa West Africa North AfricaManaging supply chain risk and disruption in capital projects01031014141720232630Methodology Endnotes Contacts363840Africa Construction Trends Report 2020 | ForewordAfrica Constructi

15、on Trends Report 2020 | ContentsContinental statistics010020030040050020192015201620172018Value (US$bn)301375286324303 307482 471452497385 3992020Number of projectsSource: Deloitte analysis, 2020Top 5 countries by number of projects020406080100KenyaNigeria4093.64050.4277.4EgyptSouth Africa Uganda265

16、2.426 21.7Number of projects Value (US$bn)Source: Deloitte analysis, 2020Regional split0306090120150East AfricaSouthern AfricaNorth AfricaWest AfricaCentral Africa Value (US$bn)11877.7102124.576 7971111186.4 Number of projectsSource: Deloitte analysis, 2020Number of projects by value020%40%60%80%100

17、%US$50m - US$500mUS$1.1bn - US$5bnUS$501m - US$1bnUS$5.1bn - US$10bn Over US$10bn282 projects73.2%46 projects11.9%10.9%42 projects 8 projects2.1%7 projects1.8%Source: Deloitte analysis, 2020Africa construction in focusDeloittes 2020 edition of the Africa Construction Trends Reportincludes 385 projec

18、ts with a total project value of US$399bn.On a year-on-year basis, the total number of projects in this report declined by 14.8%, while the total value of projects dropped by 19.8%. Once again, East Africa, with a 30.6% share, recorded the highest number of projects (118 projects), followed by South

19、ern Africa, with 26.5% (102 projects) and West Africa, with 19.7% (76 projects).In the East African region, Uganda, with 27 projects, and Kenya, with 26 projects, recorded the highest number of projects in the region. This keeps them among the top five countries in the continent in terms of number o

20、f projects.Egypt and South Africa both registered 40 projects, the highest number of projects on the continent. Egypt recorded a project value of US$93.7bn (23.5% of the continental value). Meanwhile, Nigeria recorded the second largest project value of US$52.4bn,followed by South Africa, with a pro

21、ject value of US$50.4bn, and Tanzania with US$33.5bn.In 2020, almost three in four projects (73.2%) were in the low value range of US$50m-US$500m (compared to 64.8% in 2019). An overall total of 46 projects were valued between US$501m and US$1bn. Seven projects were valued at above US$10bn.Of these,

22、 the top three include Egypts New Capital City worth US$58bn, Mozambiques Offshore Area 1 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project worth US$23bn, followed by Nigerias Centenary City worth US$18bn. These three major projects account for a total value of US$99bn, or 24.9% of Africas combined project value.

23、East Africa recorded the largest decline in number of projects and value of projects compared to 2019 figures. The number of projects in East Africa dropped by 35%, while the total project value dropped by 47%, inter alia due to the completion of several large projects. The number of projects in Sou

24、thern Africa increased by 35.3%, the largest increase in the continent.Africa Construction Trends Report 2020 | Africa construction in focus3Number of projectsValue (US$bn)2020% ofcontinental201520162017201820192020projects799279105757619.7%116.2119.898.382.880.97919.8%2942401098718.4%27.8%Number of

25、 projectsValue (US$bn)201520162017201820192020% ofcontinental projects7125.876.177.1148.3144.8111202010985931039214093.589.7125.4118.326.5%Number of projectsValue (US$bn)201520162017201820192020% ofcontinental projects2020102124.531.2%2335.82472026169.8%1.6%Number of projectsValue (US$bn)2

26、01520162017201820192020% ofcontinental projects186.42020Number of projectsValue (US$bn)2020% ofcontinental201520162017201820192020projects61437113918211830.6%57.527.432.687.1146.577.719.5%4North AfricaWest AfricaCentral AfricaSouthern AfricaEast AfricaAfrica Construction Trends Report 2020 | Africa

27、construction in focusAfrica Construction Trends Report 2020 | Africa construction in focusIn terms of number of projects, the Transport sector accounted for 41.6% (160 projects) of projects, the largest share in the continent, followed by the Energy & Power sector with a share of 21.8% (84 projects)

28、.The Real Estate sector registered the highest share value of projects on the continent, as more African countries spent increasingly on the sector, particularly Commercial Construction. The Real Estate sector accounted for 35.8% (US$142.9bn) of the total project value. The Energy & Power sector cam

29、e second in value terms, with a share of 22.7% (US$90.7bn), closely followed by the Transport sector, accounting for 22.5% (US$89.7bn) of the total project value.The Transport sector, which comprises road, rail, maritime and air transport infrastructure, is expected to support therecently launched A

30、frican Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement.1Demand for efficient transport infrastructure and services in Africa is rapidly rising, compelling many African governments to invest more in transport infrastructure, to prepare for the facilitation of infra-African trade.Real EstateNumber of p

31、rojectsValue of projects (US$bn)Commercial Construction52118.8Industrial Construction1221.6Residential Construction72.181Cultural Real Estate20.311Source: Deloitte analysis, 2020Projects by sectorNumber of projectsShare of projects by number (%)Change in number of projects from 2020iValue of project

32、s (US$bn)Share of projects by value (%)Change in value of projects from 2020 (US$bn)iiTransport16041.6%989.722.5%-43.8Energy & Power8421.8%790.722.7%-20.4Real Estate7319.0%-26142.935.8%51.9Water266.8%-16.71.7%-0.1Shipping & Ports236.0%-1530.57.7%9.3Oil & Gas61.6%-836.19.1%-44.1Healthcare61.6%-30.779

33、0.2%-49.2Social Development51.3%40.7640.2%0.49Education10.3%00.4100.1%-1.2Mining10.3%-280.0960.1%-0.3Source: Deloitte analysis, 2020May not total 100% due to roundingi This is a difference in the total number of projects and is not equivalent to the number of new projects, as projects are completed

34、and new projects are started.ii This is a difference in the total US dollar value of projects and is not equal to the value of new projects, as projects are completed and new projects are started.African Governments, accounting for an ownership share of 75.8%, remain the largest construction project

35、 owners in the continent. Private Domestic firms own 10.4% of the projects, while Consortiums own 7.8%.In terms of funding activities, Governments were responsible for funding most of the projects, particularly projects in the Transport sector (roads and bridges). Government registered a funding sha

36、re of 27.5% (106 projects), followed by Consortiums, and China with funding shares of 15.1% (58 projects) and 13.5% (52 projects), respectively. Private Domestic firms (include firms headquartered in the same African country where the project is being constructed) were responsible for funding 11.7%

37、(45 projects) of the projects in the continent, while African DFIs (development finance institutions) and International DFIs recorded a funding share of 9.6% (37 projects) and 8.8% (34 projects), respectively.African Governments also contributed the largest value to funding projects. In value terms,

38、 Government accounted for 34.5% (US$137.7bn). Private Domestic firms contributed the second largest value (US$73.1bn) 18.3%, followed by China, which contributed US$59.2bn (14.8%) towards funding of projects.In the past years, China has established a significant presence in building Africas infrastr

39、ucture projects. In 2020, the country on its own was responsible for building 31.4% (121 projects).The continents Private Domestic firms built 28.8% (111 projects), while Consortiums recorded a building share of 15.1% (58 projects).Projects by sectorShare of projects by number (%)2017201820192020Tra

40、nsport36%39%33%42%Energy & Power19%14%17%22%Real Estate22%23%22%19%Water5%5%6%7%Shipping & Ports8%8%8%6%Oil & Gas4%2%3%2%Healthcare1%3%2%2%Social Development1%1%1%1%Mining3%7%6%1%Education1%0%1%1%Agriculture/Mixed Use/Other/1%/Source: Deloitte analysis, 2020May not total 100% due to rounding067Afric

41、a Construction Trends Report 2020 | Africa construction in focusAfrica Construction Trends Report 2020 | Africa construction in focusProjects by sector (number of projects)Source: Deloitte analysis, 2020May not total 100% due to roundingProjects by sector(value ofprojects)Source: Deloitte analysis,

42、2020May not total 100% due to rounding35.8%22.7%22.5%9.1%7.7%1.7%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%Real EstateEnergy & PowerTransportOil & GasShipping & PortsWaterHealthcareSocial DevelopmentEducationMiningWho owns?75.8%10.4%7.8%1.8%1.8%1.0%0.5%0.5%0.3%GovernmentPrivate DomesticConsortiumsEU CountriesSingle Countries

43、Middle East CountriesChinaOther Asian CountriesInternational DFIsEU Countries include France, Italy, Portugal and the Netherlands Single Countries include Australia, the UK and the USMiddle East Countries include Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait and Turkey Other Asian Countries include Macau and SingaporeSou

44、rce: Deloitte analysis, 2020May not total 100% due to rounding41.6%Transport27.5%Government21.8%Energy & Power15.1%Consortiums19.0%Real Estate13.5%China6.8%Water11.7%Private Domestic6.0%1.6%Shipping & PortsOil & GasWho funds (by number of9.6%8.8%African DFIsInternational DFIs1.6%Healthcareprojects)?

45、4.9%Other Asian Countries1.3%Social Development3.9%EU Countries0.3%Education2.9%Single Countries0.3%Mining2.1%Middle East CountriesOther Asian Countries include India, Japan, Korea, Macau, and South KoreaEU Countries include the EU, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Sweden Single

46、 Countries include Australia, Brazil, Russia, the UK and the USMiddle East Countries include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the UAESource: Deloitte analysis, 2020May not total 100% due to roundingWho funds (by value of projects)?34.5%Government18.3%Private Domestic14.8%China7

47、.3%African DFIs7.3%Consortiums6.2%Single Countries4.0%Middle East Countries4.0%International DFIs1.9%EU Countries1.5%Other Asian CountriesSingle Countries include Australia, Brazil, Russia, the UK and the USMiddle East Countries include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the UAE

48、EU Countries include the EU, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Sweden Other Asian Countries include India, Japan, Korea, Macau and South KoreaSource: Deloitte analysis, 2020May not total 100% due to roundingWho builds?31.4% China28.8%Private Domestic15.1%Consortiums9.9%EU Countri

49、es5.5%Other Asian Countries4.4%Middle East Countries3.1%Single Countries1.8%GovernmentEU Countries include Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain and SwitzerlandOther Asian Countries include India, Japan, Korea, Macau and South Korea Middle East C

50、ountries include Israel, Kuwait, Macau, Turkey and the UAE Single Countries include Australia, Brazil, Russia, the UK and the USSource: Deloitte analysis, 2020May not total 100% due to roundingAfrica Construction Trends Report 2020 | Africa construction in focus068In 2020, the global economy was hit

51、 hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in both a humanitarian and an economic crisis. The pandemic led to economic lockdowns and worldwide closures of country borders, which were imposed to contain the spread of the virus.With an inverse relationship between containment policies and economic acti

52、vity, global GDP growth is expected to havecontracted by -3.5% in 2020 from expanding by 2.8% in 20192 a much larger contraction than seen during the 200809 global financial crisis. Despite this large drop in global GDP growth, a global rebound of 5.5% is forecast for 2021.3 This forecast will, howe

53、ver, be largely influenced by the intensity of the pandemic in the coming months, including subsequent waves of infections and the possible near-term rollout of a vaccine, as well as supply chain disruptions and volatile commodity prices.In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), economic growth is expected to ha

54、ve dropped from 3.2% in 2019 to -2.6% in 2020 the largest contraction for the region on record.4 Growth in SSA is projected to rebound in 2021 to 3.2%,5 assuming that the pandemic subsides. The major drop in commodity prices, particularly oil, is expected to result in fiscal and external account imb

55、alances in most oil-dependent African countries, translating into increased public debt-to-GDP ratios in the short term. Public debt is expected to mount as countries seek additional resourcesto enhance their health system capacity and fight the socio- economic effects of COVID-19, especially as man

56、y countries respond to the pandemic through some form of fiscal stimulus package.6 This could be cushioned by an upswing in commodity prices in 2021.Low commodity prices post the onset of the pandemic in 2020 are expected to have adversely impacted GDP growth in West Africa.7 The region is expected

57、to contract by -2.5% in 2020, down from 3.6% in 2019. Nigeria and Ghana, which both depend on foreign exchange earnings, are expected to battle with fiscal sustainability. GDP growth in Nigeria is expected to have slumped from 2.2%in 2019 to -3.2% in 2020, while in Ghana it is expected to have decli

58、ned from 6.5% in 2019 down to 0.9% in 2020. Cte dIvoires growth is estimated to have slowed, from 6.5% in 2019 to 1.8% in 2020, with a forecast of 6.2% in 2021.East Africa has been the fastest growing region in the past years. However, with the COVID-19 disruptions, GDP growth in the region is estim

59、ated to plunge from 6.9% in 2019 to 1.3% in 2020. The regions growth has been dampened by disruptions in several sectors such as the Tourism sector, supply chains as well as increased fiscal expenditure, all stemming from theimpact of COVID-19.8 Debt distress is likely in several East African countr

60、ies, including Kenya, which has been grappling with a risingdebt portfolio, and Ethiopia, which has had significant difficulties servicing its debts over the last few years.9GDP growth in Southern Africa is expected to drop from an already meagre 0.3% in 2019, to -6.5% in 2020. Growth is forecast to