OC约束理论瓶颈管理八讲项目管理与工程

1、GOLDRATT SATELLITE PROGRAM高瑞特卫星节目SESSION 3第三讲PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND ENGINEERING项目管理与工程So we meet again and the subject of today is fascinating. 我们又见面了，今天的主题很吸引人。Project management. 项目管理。I dont know any subject that is so diversified as project management. 项目管理是我所见过最多样化的主题。Think about it. Constructio

2、n of a building is a project. 想想看，盖一栋建筑物是项目。Launching a marketing program in a new territory, a project. 在一个全新的领域推出营销计划是项目，Implementing an ELP system, a huge project. 导入ERP系统是很大的项目。But it becomes even more interesting when we bear in mind that how whole section of organizations, of all organizations

3、 which are multi project environments. 不过，如果一想到所有的组织都是多项目的环境，这个主题就变得更有趣了。Take for example a software house. That is a multi project environment. 例如，软件公司就是多项目的环境。As a matter of fact, all of engineering is multi project. 实际上，所有的工程都是多项目。The first thing that comes to mind, what do you think, is there an

4、ything that really connects them besides the name. 一提到多项目，你立刻想到是否真的顾名思义，有个事物把这些项目连结在一起？Can we deal with all of them at the same time. 我们是否能同时处理所有的项目？Are there enough things which are common. 它们彼此间是否有足够的共通性？I think that the best way is to ask people what is your problem in the field of project manage

5、ment. 我想最好的方法就是问人：“你在项目管理的领域中碰到什么问题？”Well, if you notice people who are deeply messed in projects are experts in bitching and moaning. 嗯，你会发现那些深受项目所苦的人，往往非常擅于抱怨和发牢骚。And they have good reasons for it. 他们的理由相当充分。So ask them what really bothers them. 你可以问他们，究竟什么问题让他们感到困扰。Amazingly enough you will find

6、out that no matter what is the environment of the project, it can be a construction company, it can be engineering of new products, or it can be putting out a movie which is a huge product, the complaints have enormous similarities. 你会很惊讶地发现，无论是建设公司、新产品的工程、电影制作等不同的项目，人们的抱怨都大同小异。For example, let me s

7、how you a list that I got form a friend of mine, who had a lot of experience in projects, and this list was not picked up because it was unique, it is a list that this person had composed within three minutes. 举例来说，你看看我朋友列的这张表，他对于项目有相当丰富的经验，我选这张表不是因为它很独特，他只花了三分钟就完成这张表。It shows you how good he is at

8、bitching and moaning. 看了这张表，你就会知道他多么擅于抱怨和发牢骚。Lets look on this list. 我们来看这张表。For example, one of the complaints that he wrote is usually original due dates are not met. 他写的第一个抱怨是项目通常无法在原本的到期日完工。Somebody promised to the client, we will not talk about how we promise to the client. 某人向客户承诺，在这里我们不讨论如何向客

9、户承诺。Now we have to deliver, we are doing our best, not always we are succeeding in meeting it. 现在我们必须遵守约定，我们尽最大的努力，但往往无法如期完成。For example, by the way, when I have talked with the Israeli armed forces, I have spent a lot of time doing reserve duty there, they have claimed that there is not such a thin

10、g as a project finished on time or budget or original content. 举例来说，我在执行后备军人勤务时，曾和以色列军队讨论这件事，他们宣称没有一个项目能符合预定的时间、预算、和内容。Such an animal does not exist. 这种动物根本不存在。When I talked with the American Air Force, the top generals there then said, we always finish the project on time. On the last time, on the

11、final date, but we have changed the final date 4 times. 我在跟美国空军讨论时，上将说：“我们总是能在最后一刻准时完成项目，只不过到期日已经改了四次。”It is called recovering plans. 这叫做更新计划。I think that everybody is aware that this danger or this undesirable effect exists. 我认为大家都知道这种危机或不良效应确实存在。Lets see some other complaints. 我们来看其它的抱怨。For exampl

12、e, a second very frequent complaint is there are too many changes. 举例来说，第二个常见的抱怨是太多变更。We started a project, we thought that we have done quite a good job of scoping it out before that, as a matter of that we took a lot of time to do it. 我们在项目开始前，自认为已经做好规划的工作，实际上，真的花了很多时间。And then we start to do it a

13、nd immediately changes start to appear. 等到我们开始动手的时候，马上就出现变更。All the time.每次都是这样。Another complaint is too often resources are not available when needed even if they were promised. 另一种抱怨是即使事先都说好了，但是你需要的资源就是会短缺。Went here. They promised to have three people at that time. 进度到此时，他们答应派三个人来。The time has com

14、e, we are lucky if we have two. 时间到了，如果有两个人来我们就算很幸运了。How many times it happens to you. Often. 这种情形你碰过多少次？ 经常如此。More. Necessary things are not always available on time. 此外，需要的东西往往无法准时送达。When I am talking about necessary things they are components of things needed to get from outside even from subcont

15、ractors or vendors, or even things like permissions. 所谓需要的东西，包括从承包商或供货商购得的零件、或甚至是许可证。You know so many times we have to get permissions in order to do some task, permission from authorities internally or externally. 你知道在很多时候，我们必须得到内部或外部的许可，才能开始执行某项任务。And we have done everything for that and then the

16、permission didnt come on time and now we have to really jump through hoops. 我们已经为此做好万全的准备，但是无法准时拿到许可证，现在我们真的得面临严酷的考验。Another thing. There are fights about priorities between projects. 另一个问题是项目与项目间的优先级会引发争议。And this is very, very common when we are dealing with multi project environment. 这种现象在多项目的环境下

17、，实在不足为奇。And even when we are talking about a single project many times the recourses involved have other things to do besides the project and then you have fights all the time. 即使我们讨论的是单一的项目，很多时候相关的资源也会牵涉到其它事物，于是你必须一直争取。Are you aware of such things, oh, yeah. 你是否注意过这些事情？ 是的。More. There are budget ov

18、er-runs. 还有超出预算的问题。Sometimes startling budget over-runs. 有时候超出的预算金额相当惊人。As a matter of fact whenever we have a project that finishes in budget it is in the newspapers. 事实上，如果有个项目能在预算内完成，就可以上报了。It is news. 就是新闻。More. There is too much re-work. 还有，重做的工作太多。What is the meaning of re-work. 重做是什么意思？We hav

19、e done something later it turned out that the specs were not correct, we have to do it again. 我们做了某件事，结果规格不对，所以必须再做一次。And again. 然后再做一次。In some places they are saying that is the biggest killer. 有些人认为这是项目最大的杀手。Did you notice something amazing? 你是否发现一件令人惊讶的事？Who wrote this list? You?这张表是谁写的？ 是你吗？It i

20、s unbelievable. 真是不可思议！Even though the projects are so diversified the complaints are the same. 即使项目种类众多，但是抱怨都大同小异。Is it a full list? Of course not. 这张表完整吗？ 当然不是。Just allow any project manager or somebody working on project the freedom to complain and he will go on forever. 只要让任何项目经理或负责项目的人自由抱怨，他绝对可

21、以让这张表无限延伸。But these are typical things. 不过这都是很典型的问题。Does it mean that if the problems are the same in the projects that the cause for them are the same. 这是否意谓着每个项目的问题相同，造成问题背后的原因就会相同呢？Not necessarily. 不见得。And that is very important to find out. 找出这一点非常重要。Because by now you all know the first questio

22、n always is- what to change? 因为到目前为止，你们都知道第一个问题永远是：要改变什么？And in order to answer it we have to find the core problem. 我们必须先找出核心问题才能回答。The things that cause all the undesirable effects. 究竟是什么原因造成所有不良效应？I will use this opportunity because it is already the third in the session to show you how do you go

23、 from this ocean of undesirable effects into finding what is the thing at the bottom, what is the cause for all of them, how do you find it at all. 这已经是第三讲了，所以我想利用这个机会，告诉你究竟该如何从不良效应中找出原因。Well, the techniques is very simple. 嗯，技巧非常简单。Simply because of the way that we as human beings are operating. 因为

24、我们人的行为就是这样。Do you know what do we call an undesirable effect? 你知道什么是不良效应吗？You know one of these things that we have seen. Its actually a title for a situation where we find ourselves in a conflict, where we find ourselves between a rock and a hard place. 我们刚刚看到，其实就是我们发现自己碰到冲突，陷于进退两难的局面。And what come

25、s out from our mouths as things that bother us is actually a title for this conflict. 我们口中说的让我们感到困扰的事情，其实是指这个冲突的名称。So what you do is the following. 所以你要做的事如下。You take any one of these complaints, it does not matter which one, and you start to ask the person- what bothers you here. 你随便挑一种抱怨，然后问这个人：“什

26、么事情让你感到困扰？”What conflict are you complaining about? 你抱怨的是什么样的冲突？What is the thing which you put yourself between the rock and a hard place that you have just mentioned. 什么事情让你陷于进退两难的局面？And with few questions you get it. 问了几个问题后，你就会得到答案。Let me show you, for example. 我先示范一下。Usually original due dates

27、are not met. 项目通常无法在原本的到期日完工。Then I ask the person that gave me the list- so what? 然后我问写这张表的人：“那又怎么样？”He said- what do you mean so what? 他说：“那又怎么样是什么意思？”He said- look when we see that we are about to miss a due date, now we have to take some corrective actions. 他说：“如果我们发现可能无法在到期日完工，就必须先做一些补正措施。”Fine

28、. What are the corrective actions? 很好，什么样的补正措施？He said it depends, but, for example, my corrective actions is to give up of some of the content of the project. 他说：“视情况而定，不过我的补正措施通常是放弃项目里的一些内容。”We wanted these and these features, fine, we give up on these and these features lets have it on time. 我们本来

29、想要这些功能，很好，但是为了准时完工，必须放弃这些功能。The most famous example of that is the stadium that was in Montreal for the Olympic, they gave up the roof. 最著名的例子是在蒙特娄，为奥林匹克运动会而盖的体育馆放弃了屋顶。They have to finish on time. 他们必须准时完工。Or some other time what you say is I must get 3 more people, 4 more people, I must get more re

30、sources if you want me to finish on time. 或者有些时候，你说如果要我准时完工，就必须再给我三、四个人，我要更多的资源。That is fine so what is the problem? 没关系，那问题是什么呢？They said, you know every time that this happens, that we see that we are probably not going to meat the due date, and now we are asking for trimming part of the project,

31、part of the content, or more resources, top management that has to approve it, always frown. 他们说：“你知道每次我们发现可能无法如期完工时，就会要求删减项目的部分内容、或要求更多资源，此时高阶主管总是非常不悦。”Always they dont like it. 他们往往不喜欢这样。And it is not so easy to get the permission then to do it. 而且得到许可后再开始做，也不太容易。Look on it. Actually this what we

32、see here is a conflict. 你看，这就是冲突。Lets see the conflict. 我们看一下冲突。Something happened, we are afraid now we will not meet the project on time. We will not deliver on time. 发生了某件事，我们现在担心项目无法准时完工，无法遵守承诺。In other words, what we have to do is to bring the schedule back on track. 换句话说，我们要做的是必须让落后的进度赶上。In or

33、der to bring the schedule back on track we must take some expensive correction actions or trim the project content. 为了让落后的进度赶上，必须采取一些代价昂贵的补正措施、或删减项目内容。Because otherwise, the project will not finish on time. 不然的话，项目就不能如期完工。When we are suggesting to do it and we are saying to top management, fine we h

34、ave to trim on that and that, or give me 5 more people, they say- dont do it. 我们呈报高阶主管必须删减这个、那个，或再给5个人。他们说：“不要做了。”Dont take expensive corrections, corrective actions or do not trim the project. 不要采取代价昂贵的补正措施、或删减项目内容。Why do they say it- because they are stupid? 他们为什么这么说？因为他们很笨吗？No. Because they are a

35、ware that you are not allowed to jeopardize the original commitment for content and you must finish the project within the budget as well. 不是，因为他们知道你不可以违背原本承诺的内容，而且必须在预算内完成项目。If you noticed it is not you against the top management, you have a common objective. 如果你留意一下，会发现你和高阶主管并不是对立的，你们有共同的目标。What i

36、s the common objective? 这个共同的目标是什么呢？It is to meet the original commitment. 遵守原本的承诺。And remember in every project there are three different commitments. 要记得，每个项目都承诺了三个不同的事项。There is a commitment of a date of delivery, when do we finish. 第一是到期日，我们什么时候完成项目。There is a commitment on the content - of what

37、 are we going to deliver, and there is a commitment for budget or price. 第二是内容，我们要完成什么事项。第三是预算或价格。Ok? Three different commitments. 好吗？三个不同的承诺事项。Whenever you have this problem of time, the corrective actions that you have to take, are clashing with the other commitments. 如果到期日出问题，你必须采取的补正措施会跟另外两个承诺产生

38、冲突。Thats when you find yourselves between a rock and a hard place. Am I right?此时你会发现自己陷于进退两难的局面，我说得对吗？Lets look on another one of the complaints. 让我们看另一项抱怨。Lets look on the second one. 我们来看第二个。What was it?- there are too many changes. 是什么呢？太多变更。Well, you are asking: Why do you have the changes and w

39、hat is the problem and he said,- well it depends. 嗯，你问：“你为什么要变更？问题是什么？” 他说：“视情况而定。”He said so many times we are doing what we are supposed to do, then another department or other people which are responsible for another part of the project are coming and saying. 他说很多时候我们正在做该做的事，接着别的部门或负责项目另一部分的人跑来说：

40、Sorry, in order to do the content that we are talking about, you have to change what you have done because it doesnt fit. 很抱歉，为了要符合我们讨论的内容，你必须改变先前完成的部分，否则无法配合。Now change, or its even worse than that. 如果现在不改变，情况会变得更糟。The client, he said exactly what he wants, he signed the contract, we started to do

41、it. 客户提出确切的需求，他签下合约，我们开始做。He is looking at what we are doing and he said thats not what I meant, he wants a change. 他看看我们做的，然后说：“我不是这个意思。” 他想要变更。Sometimes he is even refusing to pay for the change. 有时候他甚至拒绝为这个变更付款。So these are the two sources for changes. 所以这两者就是变更的来源。Either internally because peopl

42、e went into problem in the other side of the project and still has to be integrated, or the client. 一个来自内部，负责项目另一部份的人为了整合而碰到问题，另一个来自客户。So, I said - what is the problem? 所以我说：“问题是什么呢？”And once again you see immediately what is the problem. 所以你再度立刻看到问题出在哪里。Look. The need is to take actions to fulfill

43、the original commitment for content or due date. 你看，这里的需求是采取行动完成原本承诺的内容或到期日。These actions now have to require a change from us otherwise we cannot meet it. 采取这些行动代表我们必须变更，否则无法达到原本的承诺。Or lets not forget, we have to honor the commitment to the clients to deliver what they really need. 不要忘了，我们必须实践对客户的承

44、诺，符合他们确切的需要。Which means I have to do the change if they say that is not what we want or thats not what we need.也就是说，如果这不是他们想要或需要的，我们就必须变更。On the other hand we are afraid to make these changes because what do these changes require usually? 但是另一方面我们又害怕变更，因为这些变更通常需要什么呢？More time, or more money. 更多的时间或金

45、钱。Is it understood, yes or no.了解了吗？Once again we are on the same thing. 我们又回到老地方。We want to meet all original commitments. 我们想要达成原来的承诺。In this case the changes are usually coming from what? 在这个例子中，变更的需求通常是什么？From the need to protect the content. 想要保护项目的内容。But the actions that we have to take, the ch

46、anges that we have to take to protect the content are jeopardizing the money and the due date commitments. 但是我们为了保护内容而必须采取的行动，就会危害到金钱和到期日的承诺。Is it understood? Beautiful. 了解了吗？太美妙了！You can go one by one on all of them and you see the same pattern repeats. 你可以逐一检视，然后会发现相同的模式一直重复出现。For example lets tak

47、e the last complaint that we had. 例如，我们看看最后一项抱怨。What was it? There is too much re-work. 是什么呢？ 重做的工作太多。So you ask why do you have the re-work. 所以你问：“为什么要重做？”And he said because the specs that we worked on turned out to be not correct. 他说：“因为我们原先的规格后来不正确。”So now we have to do it again.所以我们必须再做一次。So I

48、said why didnt you wait until the specs will be correct? 我说：“你为什么不确定规格正确以后再做？And what is the answer? 答案是什么呢？If we wait until the whole specs will be laid out, then we are definitely going to be late. 如果我们等所有的规格都确定后再做，绝对会来不及。So we have to start before we finish the planning. 因此我们一定要在计划尚未完成前就开始。Does i

49、t happen to you?你是否碰过这样的情况？Look again what is the conflict. 再看一下这里的冲突是什么？We must take action to secure meeting the original due date. 我们必须采取行动以确定能够符合原本的到期日。Because of that we have to start many times before the specs are finished. 正因如此，我们常常必须在规格还没确定前就先动工。If we start before the specs are finished mea

50、ns in order to secure it we have to start too early. 如果我们在规格还没有确定前先动工，就代表为了如期完工，必须要很早开始。We will have to do re-work. 我们必须重做。On the other hand, God forbid that we will do re-work, because what is re-work doing. 另一方面，上帝禁止我们重做，因为重做会造成什么结果？It immediately it inflates the time, inflates the budget and many

51、 times it leads to giving up on the content. 立刻延长时间和预算，常常使我们不得不放弃内容。Have you noticed that the same picture is appearing again and again and again. 你是否发现同样的情况一而再、再而三的重演。Lets see what is the generic conflict, what is the generic problem. 让我们看看一般性的冲突，什么是一般性的问题？I think that by now we can verbalize it qu

52、ite nicely. 我想现在我们可以很清楚地把它表达出来。What is the project management cloud? 项目管理的冲突图是什么？What is the problem of all this field? 在这个领域中碰到的问题是什么？The problem goes like that. 问题如下：The objective is obvious- you must meet the original commitments. 目标很明显：你必须如期达成原本的承诺。And remember there are three different original

53、 commitments. 要记得，有三种不同的承诺事项。Time, money and content. 时间、金钱、和内容。Now in order to meet original commitments, since Murphy does exist, and since things are not going according to what we plan, remember what are the things that typify projects? 现在为了要实践原本的承诺，但是莫非存在，而且事情通常不会依照我们的计划进行，还记得项目典型的特征是什么吗？The th

54、ings that typifies projects is high level of uncertainty. 项目典型的特征是高度的不确定性。It is not like in production that we have done the same thing half a million times. 项目不像生产，同样的事情我们做过五十万次。In a project we have never done exactly the same under the same situation, very high level of uncertainty. 在项目中，我们从没在同样的情

55、况下做过同样的事情，所以不确定性相当高。So Murphy is guaranteed here. 所以莫非铁定会在这里出现。And this means that because Murphy strikes us, in order to meet the original commitment we must do whatever it takes to meet the endangered original commitment. 也就是说，因为莫非随时会袭击，所以我们为了实践原本的承诺，就必须尽一切努力实践岌岌可危的承诺。What is an endangered origina

56、l commitment? 什么叫做岌岌可危的承诺？Murphy, something that we have not done correctly. 莫非，也就是某件我们没有做对的事情。Now in order to do whatever it takes to meet the endangered original commitment we must actually compensate for early mis-estimations or mis-considerations. 现在我们为了尽一切努力实践岌岌可危的承诺，必须弥补之前错误的估计或未顾虑到的。Will we a

57、lways have mis-estimations and mis-considerations? 我们是不是都有错误的估计和未顾虑到的？Always, that is the nature of uncertainty. 一定会有，这正是不确定性的本质。Is it understood, yes or no.了解了吗？At the same we dont want to compensate for early mis-estimations and mis-considerations. 但是我们不想弥补之前错误的估计和未顾虑到的。Why? - because we are not a

58、llowed to jeopardize the other commitments that we have. 为什么呢？因为我们不能危害到其它的承诺事项。So from one hand side we must compensate, and from the other hand side we are not allowed to compensate. 所以我们一方面必须补偿，另一方面又不能补偿。How lovely. Life is a bitch and then we die. 太美妙了！生活充满困境，我们终究会死亡。Not necessarily. Remember thi

59、s is a huge conflict. 不见得如此。要记住，这是很大的冲突。This is a conflict that everyone involved in a project all the time is facing. 与项目相关的每个人一天到晚都在面对这类冲突。Correct? Oh yeah? 对不对？没错！What do we do now? We compensate.我们现在要怎么做？ 我们要弥补。So fine, in this project we give up a little bit on this content and we will negotiat

60、e a new deadline or we will go over budget another 20 %. 很好，在这个项目中，我们放弃部分的内容、协商出一个新的到期日、或追加20%的预算。We are trying to do our best. 我们试着尽力而为。If you really want to improve it, we must find what. 如果你真的想改善这种情况，我们必须找出什么呢？We must find a way to eliminate the conflict. 我们必须找到一种消除冲突的方法。We must find an assumptio