美中双向投资趋势报告

1、Two-Way Street:2021UpdateUS-China Investment TrendsThilo Hanemann, Daniel H. Rosen, Mark Witzke, Steve Bennion and Emma Smith With a Foreword by Stephen A. OrlinsA Report by the US-China Investment ProjectMAY 2021More background on the US-China Investment Project and interactive visuals are availabl

2、e at: HYPERLINK / 2021 Rhodium Group and National Committee on U.S.-China RelationsABOUT THE US-CHINA INVESTMENT PROJECTThe US-China investment Project is a multi-year research initiative to provide greater transparency on investment flows between China and the United States.LEAD ORGANIZATIONSRhodiu

3、m GroupRhodium Group (RHG) is an independent research firm dedicated to using policy experience, quan- titative tools and on-the-ground research to analyze disruptive global trends. Our work supports leadership and other professionals in the financial, corporate, non-profit and government sectors. R

4、HG analysis is used in commercial and investment management, strategic planning and policy analysis. Rhodium Group is headquartered in New York City, with offices in California, Hong Kong, and Paris. RHGs cross-border investment practice analyzes the rise of China and other emerging markets as trans

5、-national investors. RHG senior staff publish frequently on the growth and impact of Chinese outbound investment in the United States, Europe, and other economies.National Committee on US-China RelationsThe National Committee on United States-China Relations is an American nonprofit, nonpartisan edu

6、cational organization that encourages understanding and cooperation between the United States and Greater China in the belief that constructive Sino-American relations serve the interests of both countries and the global community. Since 1966, the National Committee has conducted programs on politic

7、s and security, governance and civil society, economics and finance, education, and trans-national issues such as energy and environment. It carries out its mission via confer- ences and forums, public education programs, professional exchanges, and collaborative projects. The National Committees co

8、rporate and individual members represent many viewpoints, but share the belief that productive US-China relations require public education, face-to-face contact, and the forthright exchange of ideas2021 SUPPORTERSSteven and Roberta Denning Mac McQuownGary Rieschel Jack WadsworthAn interactive web ap

9、plication with updated data through the end of 2020 is available at: HYPERLINK / CONTENTS HYPERLINK l _TOC_250023 Foreword 8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250022 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250021 INTRODUCTION 12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250020 DIRECT INVESTMENT 13 HYPERLINK l _TOC_25

10、0019 US Direct Investment in China 13 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 Overview 14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Industry Trends 15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 Outlook 18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Chinese Direct Investment in the US 18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Overview 19 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 Industry Trends 20 HYPERL

11、INK l _TOC_250012 Outlook 23 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 VENTURE CAPITAL 24 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 US Venture Investment in China 24 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Overview 24 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Industry and Technology Trends 26 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Outlook 28 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Chinese Venture I

12、nvestment in the US 29 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Overview 29 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Industry and Technology Trends 30 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Outlook 31 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK 33 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 References 35 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Appendix: Datasets and Compilation

13、Methodology 36FOREWORDI am delighted to be writing the foreword to the sixth annual Two-Way Street report, a resource created by the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and Rhodium Group that provides unparalleled data and analysis of two-way capital flows.When we launched this project in lat

14、e 2016, in the National Committees 50th anniversary year, much of the emphasis was on the new wave of Chinese direct investment entering the United States and the continued importance of U.S. investment in China. As the data documented, bilateral investment ties were deeper than thought, benefiting

15、both countries economic activity and serving as important, if underappreciated, ballast for the relationship.How times have changed. In 2021, with both nations recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, the complexion of the relationship has changed dramatically. Bilateral investment has not continued a

16、long the trajectory we saw years earlier and, arguably, neither nations economic interests have been particularly well served.At the time of writing, President Bidens team is undertaking a thorough review of the previous administrations China policies, looking to undo policies that unnecessarily cur

17、bed Chinese trade and investment. But even after President Bidens first hundred days, tariffs that hurt the American consumer have been left in place; executive orders that force the delisting of Chinese companies from U.S. exchanges have not been reversed, sending busi- ness to other countries and

18、costing America jobs. Congress, too, has a role, finding opportunities to speak and act in ways that actively discourage a Chinese presenceespecially an investment presencein the United States.Chinas actions have contributed to the badly deteriorated bilateral investment environment as well. Maintai

19、ning strict capital outflow controls, cracking down on some of the countrys main private outbound investors, deep- ening industrial policies to promote self-reliance and independence from foreign markets, and continuing reprehensible policies in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, for example, have greatly redu

20、ced investment that might have otherwise taken place.As the post-pandemic recovery continuesand after a volatile 2020many investors have begun taking stock to make decisions that will shape global value chains for the coming decade. That is why this years report is more important than ever. By makin

21、g bilateral investment data transparent, it provides thought leaders in the business and policy world in both the United States and China with ample food for thought and encourages pol- icy that is well informed and data driven, rather than the product of emotions or politics.As no one is better or

22、more thoughtful at collecting, analyzing, and presenting this two-way investment data than Rhodium, it is a great pleasure to be working with the firm once again. It is our hope that our joint report will serve as a public good in both countries, providing a more complete picture of U.S.-China inves

23、tment flows, their value to both countries, and their impacts on the bilateral relationship.Stephen A. OrlinsPresident, National Committee on U.S.-China RelationsEXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe US-China Investment Project tracks and analyzes investment flows between the worlds two largest economies. This repor

24、t summarizes key developments in 2020, an unusually volatile year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and analyzes the outlook for 2021 as the world slowly emerges from this period of crisis and a new US administration settles in.The key findings of the report are:Foreign direct investment (FDI) between t

25、he US and China fell to $15.9 billion in 2020 amid pandemic related disruptions and rising tensions in the US-China relationship. This was the lowest level for two-way flows since 2009.Completed Chinese FDI in the United States reached $7.2 billion in 2020, a slight increase from $6.3 billion in 201

26、9. This was driven by a handful of large acquisitions, including Tencents purchase of a share in Universal Music Group and Harbin Pharmaceutical Groups acquisition of GNC Holdings. M&A transaction volumes remained low, and acquisitions were mostly confined to consumer-oriented sectors. Greenfield in

27、vestments did not see a meaningful uptick.US FDI in China dropped to $8.7 billion in 2020, a fall of roughly a third from the previous year, and the lowest level since 2004. Greenfield investment was disrupted by the pandemic in the first half of the year but picked up strongly in the second half as

28、 Chinas economy stabilized and COVID-19 related restrictions eased. Compared to previous years, US investors launched fewer significant greenfield projects. The slowdown in acquisitions was more acute, with only a handful of medium-sized takeovers in consumer products and finan- cial services.Figure

29、 ES-1: Annual Value of FDI Transactions between the US and China, 2000-2020USD billionSource: Rhodium Group. *See Appendix for data description.Two-way venture capital (VC) investments also declined slightly in terms of both total value and number of funding rounds. Chinese VC in the US increased sl

30、ightly and exceeded flows in the other direction for the first time ever, but only marginally so. In contrast, US VC in China dropped to the lowest level in five years.Chinese venture capital investment in the US increased to $3.2 billion in 2020, from $2.3 billion in 2019, despite stricter regulato

31、ry scrutiny tied to FIRRMA. Chinese venture investors participated in 249 unique funding rounds for US startups, which was lower than the previous year (305). But investment totals were larger due to several later stage transactions with high valuations. More than half of all transactions (132) occu

32、rred in the Health, Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology sector, followed by Financial and Business Services (43) and Information and Communications Technology (26).US to China venture capital deals dropped in terms of value and deal count. In 2020 there were 247 unique funding rounds, down from last y

33、ears total of 306. Total investment value dropped more sharply to$2.5 billion, just half of last years total and a fraction of the almost $20 billion recorded in 2018. Financial and Business Services and Health, Pharmaceuticals and Biotech were the most common targets for US VC investors, with 54 an

34、d 52 transactions each. Consumer Products and Services deals fell from 52 to 31. from the record $19.6 billion in 2018. The 2017-2018 boom in US venture capital investment into China was in line with a broader expansion and growth of the Chinese technology market and especially later-stage technolog

35、y firms. In 2019, there was a slowdown in the Chinese VC market as investors became more selective in the face of increasing economic uncertainty and the view took hold that parts of Chinas tech ecosystem had become overheated after years of rapid growth.Figure ES-2: Annual Pro-Rata Value of VC Tran

36、sactions between the US and China, 2000-2020*USD billionSource: Rhodium Group based on Bloomberg, Pitchbook and other databases. *Pro-rata value determined as US or Chinese proportional share of each funding rounds value based on the number of participating investors. See Appendix for data descripti

37、on.The post-pandemic recovery could lead to a rebound in two-way flows but policy developments in Washington and Beijing are a wild card.In China, the balance that leaders strike between domestic financial stability and openness to the outside world will shape the investment landscape. Throughout th

38、e pandemic, Beijing prioritized stability, refusing to loosen restrictions on outbound investment by private companies despite a massive trade surplus and upward pressure on its currency. On the inflow side, the outlook hinges on whether Beijing delivers on its promises to level the playing field fo

39、r foreign firms and how its “dual circulation” strategy and industrial policy push to replace foreign technology suppliers with domestic firms progresses. A more challenging environment for traditional FDI could also encourage foreign investors in certain sectors to seek greater exposure to Chinese

40、assets through portfolio investment.In the United States, the Biden administration has signaled that it will maintain key elements of the restrictive policies deployed in past years. But a change in style, that seeks to restore confidence in due process, transparency and non-discriminatory openness

41、to foreign investment, seems likely. A shift away from aggressive decoupling rhetoric could also help instill confidence. Among the key questions are how US officials will implement and enforce new rules for foreign investment reviews (FIRRMA) and export controls (ECRA). Supply chain safety rules, n

42、ext generation antitrust policies, and new initiatives to protect personal data could all have a profound effect on Chinese companies and investorsAside from national policies, broader geopolitical dynamics will likely shape the environment for bilat- eral investment. The arrival of a new US adminis

43、tration that is prioritizing cooperation with allies could lead to more coordinated action among advanced economies in areas like investment screening, export con- trols and human rights. If such convergence brings more transparency and predictability around national security-related concerns, then

44、it could support US-China investment in non-sensitive areas. But greater market economy convergence could also trigger a broader rethink that incentivizes US and Chinese inves- tors to shift their focus.INTRODUCTIONThe global COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on global capital flows. The v

45、irus shut down local econ- omies and halted cross-border travel, complicating deal making. As a result, total foreign direct investment (FDI) flows dropped an estimated 40% in 2020. Toward the end of the year, however, the pendulum began to swing back in the other direction, with M&A levels bouncing

46、 back to pre-crisis levels as central banks flooded the mar- ket with liquidity.Capital flows between the US and China had been volatile even before the pandemic outbreak: direct investment and VC flows grew rapidly after 2010, reaching a peak of over $70 billion in 2016, as Chinese outbound invest-

47、 ments accelerated. Since 2017, however, Chinese investment in the US has slowed dramatically due to domestic restrictions imposed by the Chinese government and regulatory pushback from the US side. US investment in China, by contrast, remained flat in recent years as Chinas growth and economic refo

48、rm momentum slowed.The pandemic has reinforced some of the drivers of the volatile bilateral investment environment. In China, an acute focus on domestic recovery and risk mitigation has reduced the appetite for outbound investment among Chinese regulators. Asset prices in the US have recovered quic

49、kly, with valuations surging to their highest lev- els in a decade. The pandemic exacerbated tensions in the US-China relationship in the final year of the Trump administration. At the same time, Chinas successful containment of the pandemic and early economic recovery have made its market more attr

50、active to many American companies. Furthermore, high yields increased the appetite of international investors for passive portfolio holdings in China.As the world slowly emerges from crisis mode, policymakers will have to grapple with the longer-term implica- tions of these trends and navigate a ser

51、ies of related policy questions. In times of volatility, it is doubly important that decisions be guided by objective information that provides context around the short-term movements that we have been witnessing.The US-China Investment Project fulfills this need by providing clear and objective dat

52、a on US-China investment flows through the traditional direct investment lens and via insights into new types of capital flows that reflect the growing complexities of US-China investment dynamics. While direct investment has played by far the larg- est role in capital flows in and out of China to d

53、ate, indirect flows, including venture capital and other private equity investments, are likely to account for a larger share of two-way flows in the future.This report summarizes the most important trends in US-China two-way investment in 2020. The first part of the report reviews US-China trends i

54、n direct investment. The second part analyzes trends in bilateral venture capital investment. The report concludes with a summary of key findings and outlook for businesses and policymakers.An interactive data visualization with detailed industry profiles and additional research is available on our

55、project website ().DIRECT INVESTMENTTwo-way foreign direct investment (FDI) has been a critical component of the US-China economic relationship. Direct investment transactions give foreign investors control and long-term influence over local businesses. These transactions typically involve investmen

56、ts resulting in at least 10% ownership of a companys voting shares. This contrasts with portfolio investment, which involves shorter-term, financially motivated transactions that generally result in smaller ownership stakes (usually less than 10% of voting rights) and no meaningful control.Long-stan

57、ding methodological challenges complicate the task of assessing direct investment flows between China and the United States. Most government statistics measure financial flows based on Balance of Payments (BOP) principles, which are greatly distorted by complex global financing structures, tax optim

58、ization, intra-com- pany transfers and other factors. Government statistics based on BOP principles collect FDI data based on the immediate source or destination country, and do not trace flows back to the country of ultimate origin or the ultimate destination. Finally, there is often a significant

59、time lag in most official statistics for bilateral FDI.This section presents an analysis of US-China bilateral FDI trends based on an alternative Rhodium Group data- set that identifies, values and aggregates individual FDI transactions. The database covers direct investment transactions including t

60、he establishment of subsidiaries, factories, research and development (R&D) centers, and offices (greenfield investments), the expansion of existing facilities, and the acquisition of existing com-panies (mergers and acquisitions, or M&A). This bottom-up dataset is not comparable to BOP data but off