老龄化背景下中国社会保障财务可持续性的应对措施课件

1、老龄化背景下中国社会保障财务可持续性的应对措施Alternative Policy Measures to Cope with the Impact of Ageing on the Financial Sustainability of the Social Security System in China董克用 教授 Prof. Keyong DONG 中国人民大学Renmin University of China北京，2018.10.12.Beijing, 2018.10.12.人口老龄化下中国社会保障财政可持续性受到挑战对策一：统一的税费征管体制对策二：渐进式延迟退休方案对策三：积极

2、发展第三支柱对策四：医疗费用合理控费对策五：全面放开生育政策目录ContentsThe Population Aging Makes Financial Sustainability of Social Security in China be ChallengedMeasure 1: Unified Taxes and Fees Collection SystemMeasure 2: Progressively Raising the Retirement AgeMeasure 3: Advancing the Development of the Third PillarMeasure 4

3、: Reasonable Control of Medical ExpenditureMeasure 5: Gradually Relaxing the Family Planning Policy人口老龄化下中国社会保障财政可持续性受到挑战The Population Aging Makes Financial Sustainability of Social Security in China be Challenged养老保险城镇职工养老金缺口巨大兜底城镇职工基本养老保险的财政支出逐年增加，2016年达到6511亿元，基金结余虽有4万亿元，但全部来自历年的财政补贴总和，个人账户长期“空账

4、”运行。据预测，至2050年，当年基金收支缺口将达到GDP的7%，基金累积缺口将达到GDP的79%。城乡居民养老金财政负担沉重城乡居民基本养老保险在制度设计上就依赖政府财政的支持，补贴额度从2010年的217亿元，逐年增加到2016年的2201亿元，财政补贴长期占基金收入的70%以上。据模型测算，最坏情况下，2050年两项基本养老保险的当年财政负担将占GDP的8.19%，累计财政负担将超过当年GDP，达到104%。Pension InsuranceHuge funding gap in basic pension insurance for the urban employeesIn 2016

5、, the number of subsidies reached 651.1 billion yuan. The fund balance (4 trillion yuan) almost came from the sum of fiscal subsidies over the years. Which means the personal accounts has operated in the status of “empty account” for a long time.It is predicted that the funding gap will be 7% of GDP

6、 and the accumulated funding gap will reach an all-time high of nearly 79% of GDP in 2050.Heavy financial responsibility in basic pension insurance for the urban and rural residentsThe amount of subsidies has increased from 21.7 billion yuan in 2010 to 220.1 billion yuan in 2016, and financial subsi

7、dies have accounted for funds more than 70% of income in the long term.According to the calculation, in the worst case, the amount of expenditure that the government should bear for these two basic pension insurance systems will account for 8.19% of GDP, and the accumulated expenditure will exceed t

8、he total GDP of that year, accounting for 104% in 2050.医疗保险和社会救助老龄化致使医疗支出显著增加医疗保障类总支出逐年上升，2016年突破6000亿元，占财政总支出的比重达到3.31%。其中，城乡居民基本医疗保险的财政支出占医疗类总支出的70%以上。脱贫任务增加社会救助类支出为了完成2020年全面脱贫的目标，扶贫专项支出增加迅速，据财政部预算司透露，中央财政专项扶贫资金达到861亿元，比上年增长了30.3%。Medical Insurance and Social AssistancePopulation aging leads to a

9、 significant increase in medical expendituresThe total expenditure on medical security has been rising steadily year by year, and in 2016, it exceeded 600 billion yuan, accounting for 3.31% of the total financial expenditure.It is notable that the financial expenditure of basic medical insurance for

10、 urban and rural residents accounts for more than 70% of the total medical expenditure.Poverty alleviation task leads to an increase in social assistance expendituresIn order to complete the goal of alleviating poverty in 2020, revealed by Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance, the central go

11、vernments special fund for poverty alleviation reached 86.1 billion yuan, an increase of 30.3% over the previous year.对策一：统一的税费征管体制Measure 1: Unified Taxes and Fees Collection System改革内容和影响相关政策十九届三中全会后，中共中央印发了深化党和国家机构改革方案，其中提到要合并国税和地税，并由税务部门统一征收社会保障费。紧接着在7月，国税地税征管体制改革方案明确了从2019年1月1日起，将基本养老保险费、基本医疗保险

12、费、失业保险费、工伤保险费、生育保险费等各项社会保险费交由税务部门统一征收。改革的主要影响社会保障费交由税务部门征收，形成统一的税费征管体系后，征管能力得到显著提高，同时将按照实际工资作为缴费基数征收，将有望在根本上解决遵缴率低和缴费基数不实两大问题。The content and possible effects of the reformPoliciesAfter the third plenary session of the 19th central committee, the CPC central committee issued the “Plan for Deepening

13、the Reform of the Party and State Organs”, which mentioned the need to combine state and local taxes and collect social security fees from the tax authorities. Then in July, the “ Reform Plan of National Tax and Local Tax Collection and Management System” clarified that from January 1, 2019, basic p

14、ension insurance fees, basic medical insurance fees, unemployment insurance fees, work injury insurance fees, and maternity insurance fees will be collected by the tax authorities.EffectsAfter social insurance fees are collected by the tax authorities and form the unified taxes and fees collection s

15、ystem, the capability of collection and administration will be improved significantly, which is expected to fundamentally solve the two big problems low compliance rate and unclear payment base.对基金缺口的当期影响（城职保为例）亿元 根据调整后的模型测算，税费征管体制改革后，“城职保”的当年收支差至2026年前始终为正，2050年的当年收支差为-23.44万亿元，占当年GDP的5.71%，明显小于改革前

16、的-29万亿元和7.07%。Current impact on funding gap (pension insurance for urban employees)According to the adjusted model, after the reform, the balance of pension for urban employees is positive until 2026. And the balance in 2050 is -23.44 trillion yuan, accounting for 5.71% of GDP, which is obvious lowe

17、r than -29 trillion yuan and 7.07% of GDP before the reform.对基金缺口的累积影响（城职保为例）改革对累积缺口的影响更为明显。2032年“城职保”累积额至2032年前始终为正，2050年的累积额为-212万亿元（比改革前减少114万亿元），占当年GDP的51.58%（比改革前降低28个百分点） 。Accumulated Impact on funding gap (pension insurance for urban employees)More obvious impact which the reform has is on th

18、e accumulated balance. The accumulated balance of pension for urban employees is positive until 2032. And the accumulated balance in 2050 is -212 trillion yuan (114 trillion less than that before reform), accounting for 51.58% of GDP (28% lower than that before reform).对策二：渐进式延迟退休方案Measure 2: Progre

19、ssively Raising the Retirement Age政策内容和影响主要影响按照渐进式延迟退休方案的设计，未来女性将以每3年延迟1岁，男性以每6年延迟1岁的速度延长退休年龄，最终达到65岁的法定退休年龄。这意味着对于原来60岁退休的人来说，多缴了5年养老保险，少领了5年养老金，有助于缓解养老基金压力。The content and possible effects政策背景2013年中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定指出：研究制定渐进式延迟退休年龄政策。随后人力资源和社会保障部表示，渐进式延迟退休方案将在2016年向公众征求意见，在2017年正式出台。方案推出五年后，再渐进

20、式实施。然而由于各种因素，该计划尚未得到落实。PoliciesIn 2013, the “Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reform” pointed out: Study and formulate the scheme of progressively raising the retirement age.Then, the Ministry of Human Reso

21、urces and Social Security stated that the scheme of progressively raising the retirement age will be open to the public in 2016 and will be officially launched in 2017. Five years after the launch of the program, it will be implemented gradually.However, due to various factors, the plan has not yet

22、been implemented.EffectsAccording to the design, women will be delayed by 1 year every 3 years, and men will be extended by 1 year every 6 years, and eventually reach the legal retirement age of 65.This means that for those who retired at the age of 60, their payment period will increase by 5 years

23、while the treatment period will be reduce by 5 years.对基金缺口的当期影响（城职保为例）根据调整后的模型测算，改革后至2029年，基金保持收大于支，随后出现收不抵支，2050年达到10万亿元缺口，占当年GDP的2.47%，远小于改革前的29万亿和GDP的7.07%。Current impact on funding gap (pension insurance for urban employees)After the reform, the pension will continue to receive more than it need

24、s to spend by 2029, and then there will be a deficit of 10 trillion yuan in 2050, accounting for 2.47% of GDP in that year. They are far less than 29 trillion yuan and 7.07% of GDP before the reform.亿元 对基金缺口的累积影响（城职保为例）延迟退休方案实施后至2038年，基金累积结余为正，随后开始出现累积缺口，2050年达到71万亿元,占当年GDP的17.31% ,远小于延迟退休前的326万亿元和G

25、DP的80%。Accumulated Impact on funding gap (pension insurance for urban employees)After the reform, the accumulated balance of the fund will be positive by 2038, and then there will be a cumulative deficit, which will reach 71 trillion yuan in 2050, accounting for 17.31% of GDP. They are far less than

26、 326 trillion yuan and 80% of GDP before the retirement reform.亿元 对策三：积极发展第三支柱Measure 3: Advancing the Development of the Third Pillar个人税延养老金三大要素 政府强有力的税收激励多渠道投资促进基金保值增值以账户为核心的基础制度设计Strong tax incentive from the governmentMulti-channel investment promotes the maintenance and appreciation of the fund

27、Design basic system centered on accounts3 elements of the 3rd pillar personal tax deferred pension推进第三支柱的关键点+制度模式以“个人账户”为核心：设立具有唯一性识别的个人账户；依托多方载体提高第三支柱个人养老金的覆盖面；可以依托社会保障卡建立第三支柱个人账户信息平台等+设计合理的税收优惠模式：合理运用EET或是TEE的税延模式；设置合理的税优比例或者额度；考虑将二三支柱的税收优惠打通+多元化的参与产品和投资渠道：考虑将银行、基金、保险等多类养老金融产品纳入选择范围；考虑建立产品准入制度和默认投

28、资工具机制。第一支柱保基本，促公平；第三支柱解决可持续性，缓解财政压力Key points of develop the 3rd PillarThe 1st Pillar maintains base and improve fairness; The 3rd Pillar maintains sustainability and ease the fiscal pressure +The system model centered on individual account: Set up individual account with unique identification; Rely

29、 on multiple carriers to increase the coverage of the third pillar personal pension; Rely on social security card to establish the 3rd pillar personal account information platform.+Design reasonable tax preference model: reasonably use the tax extension model of EET or TEE; Set a reasonable preferen

30、tial tax rate or quota; Consider to open up the 2nd and 3rd pillar tax incentives.+Diversified participation in product and investment channels: Consider banks, funds, insurance and other types of pension financial products into the selection range; Consider to establish a product access system and

31、default investment vehicle mechanism.对策四：医疗费用合理控费Measure 4: Reasonable Control of Medical Expenditure医疗支出的增长逻辑医院的“逐利”行为导致的增长保障性质导致支出不合理、低效率老龄人口增加导致的费用增长Factors for the growth of medical expenditureProfit-seeking behaviorThe nature of safeguards leads to unreasonable expenditure and low efficiencyThe

32、 increase of older population主要对策大力发展商业医疗保险，建立多层次医保体系规范政策法规，保证医疗保障功能公平合理且有效率建立第三方信息平台，智能化监控“逐利”行为将财政补贴制度化，建立长效合理可持续的调节机制Developing commercial medical insurance and establishing a multi-level medical insurance systemMake policies and regulations more standardizedTo establish third-party information p

33、latform to strengthen supervisionInstitutionalizing financial subsidiesMeasures对策五：全面放开生育政策Measure 5: Gradually Relaxing the Family Planning Policy“二孩政策”不如预期，应鼓励生育“二孩”政策不如预期生育意愿弱，应鼓励中国于2015年提出，2016年正式实施了“全面二孩”政策。国家统计局数据：2017年出生人口比2016年的1786万人减少了63万人。2016年全国人口出生率为12.95，2017年降至12.43。卫计委（2015年）：“符合政策条件的夫妇约有9000万对，出生人口预计超过2000万人。”现实情况：出生人口均未超过1800万，低于国家卫计委针对2017-2021年全国出生人口数的预测。时代变化：个人选择权取代了家庭责任。现实压力：高房价、高育儿成本、社会竞争激烈。生育政策具有明显的滞后性，无法做到立竿见影。应尽快推进生育放开，学习借鉴发达国家的做法，鼓