汇率制度-Chapter5International

1、Chapter 4 International Exchange System第五章 国际汇率制度第一节 固定汇率制Fixed Rate SystemThe world economy operated under a system of fixed dollar exchange rates between the end of World War II and 1973, with central banks routinely trading foreign exchange to hold their exchange rates at internationally agreed l

2、evels.1Two kinds of the fixed exchange rates金本位制度下的固定汇率制纸币流通制度下的固定汇率制Gold Standard:规定货币单位的含金量。含金量的的对比决定汇率。金币可以自由铸造；自由兑换；自由输出入。2The Gold StandardAn international gold standard avoids the asymmetry inherent in a reserve currency standard by avoiding the “Nth currency” problem. Under a gold standard, e

3、ach country fixes the price of its currency in terms of gold by standing ready to trade domestic currency for gold whenever necessary to defend the official price.3Advantage of the Gold StandardBecause there are N currency and N prices of gold in terms of those currencies, no single country occupies

4、 a privileged position within the system: each is responsible for pegging its currencys price in terms of the official international reserve asset, gold. Gold standard rules also require each country to allow unhindered imports and exports of gold across its borders.4Benefits and drawbacks of the Go

5、ld StandardBenefits:SymmetryPrice level and value of national money are more stable and predictableEnhance international transactions5Drawbacks:Constraints on the use of monetary policy to fight unemployment.Tying currency values to gold ensures a stable overall price level only if the relative pric

6、e of gold is stable.gold discovery in South AmericaAn international payments system based on gold is problematic because central banks cannot increase their holdings of international reserves as their economies grow unless there are continual new gold discoveries.The gold standard gives gold-produci

7、ng countries power to influence the world economy6The Gold Exchange StandardHalfway between the gold standard and a pure reserve currency standard is the gold exchange standard. Central banks reserves consist of gold and currencies whose prices in terms of gold are fixed, and each central bank fixes

8、 its exchange rate to a currency with a fixed gold price. More flexibility in the growth of international reserves.7Fixed Exchange Rates under currency-circulation system纸币流通下的布雷顿森林体系。1944Bretton Woods agreement英国向美国妥协的结果“双挂钩”体系。金块美元dollar各国货币日元里拉1盎司=35美元1%幅度波动8How to sustain the Fixed Rate维持固定汇率制的手

9、段：动用黄金储备（储备项目）利用贴现政策（资本项目）施行外汇管制（或签订互换货币协定）实行法定贬值（last resort）9Dilemma of US dollar美国逆差收支平衡向他国提供美元保持对美元信心10Process of dollar devaluation美元贬值1944 1971 1973 1盎司值美元353842.22脱钩浮动11Abandoned Gold Exchange StandardThe post-World War II reserve currency system centered on the dollar was, in fact, originall

10、y set up as a gold exchange standard. While foreign central banks did the job of pegging exchange rates, the U.S. Federal Reserve was responsible for holding the dollar price of gold at $35 an ounce. By the mid-1960s, the system operated in practice more like a pure reserve currency system than a go

11、ld standard. President Nixon unilaterally severed the dollars link to gold in August 1971, shortly before the system of fixed dollar exchange rates was abandoned.12Floating Exchange Rate System第二节 浮动汇率制度特征：不规定本国货币与外币黄金平价不规定汇率波动的上下限中央银行无义务维持汇率波动界限义务外汇市场供求决定汇率国际收支变化是影响汇率的主要因素13Types of floating exchan

12、ge rates政府有否干预(dirty hand)自由浮动Free Float/Clean Float管理浮动Managed Float/Dirty Float是否与其他货币发生联系(Connection)单独浮动Single Float 英镑，美元，日元等27个国家。钉住浮动Pegged Float(1)钉住某一种货币：过去的殖民地与宗主国之间关系(2)钉住一揽子货币：SDR; ECU;取决于主要贸易伙伴国。联合浮动Joint Float欧共体。14Advantage and drawback of floating rate浮动汇率制度的有利因素：可以防止大量游资对硬货币的冲击。可以防止

13、外汇和黄金储备的流失。各国有较大的自由来推行本国政策。总而言之，没有义务来维护固定汇率。15Drawbacks of floating exchange rate浮动汇率的三方面弊端：增加进出口贸易结算成本和风险，不利于国际贸易的发展。助长国际金融市场上的投机活动。各国采取以邻为壑政策，竞争性货币贬值。Beggar-thy-neighbor policy.16Krugman & Obstfeld (1)Discipline. Central banks freed from the obligation to fix their exchange rates might embark on i

14、nflationary policies.Destabilizing speculation and money market disturbances. Speculation on changes in exchange rates could lead to instability in foreign exchange markets.Injury to international trade and investment. Floating rates would make relative international prices more unpredictable.17Krug

15、man & Obstfeld (2)4. Uncoordinated economic policies. The door would be opened to competitive currency practices harmful to the would economy.5. The illusion of greater autonomy. Floating exchange rates would not really give countries more policy autonomy. Changes in exchange rates would have such p

16、ervasive macroeconomic effects that central banks would feel compelled to intervene heavily in foreign exchange markets even without a formal commitment to peg.18Selection of Fixed & Floating Exchange Rates固定汇率制和浮动汇率制的选择取决于一国的国情：大国还是小国；发展中国家还是发达国家；此事古难全19Exchange Rate System in Hong Kong第三节 联系汇率制度（演

17、变史）1935美元英镑区成员，港币与英镑之间是固定汇率1英镑=16港元1972英镑自由浮动，港币与美元建立固定联系1美元=5.65港元1973美元自由浮动，港币也自由浮动不断贬值过程1983.10港币直接与美元挂钩，联系汇率制度开始1美元=7.8港元20Stabilization Policies香港联系汇率制度的主要内容:从1983年10月17日起，发钞银行增发的港元现钞，一律以1美元=7.8港元的比价，事先向外汇基金交纳美元。保证了港币的发行有美元的准备。1994年进一步规定上述固定汇率只使用于发钞银行与外汇基金之间。其他交易则全部按照市场汇率来进行。21Adaptability and

18、Vitality Hong Kong: small open economy资源贫乏，生产资料和生活必需品依赖进口。香港对外贸易是本地GDP 的2.5倍。外资在香港经济中占绝对比重。外资占股票市场交易额的三分之一。Weathering the Storms1987年全球股灾；1990年海湾战争；1991年欧洲汇率机制解体；1997-1998年亚洲金融危机。22Evolution of Exchange System of RMB in China232425261990$1= 4.78 (5.83)人民币贬值9.57%1991$1= 5.32 (6.78)允许个人外汇存取买卖1992$1= 5.51 (8.62)全国外汇调剂中心成立连网42个地方外汇调剂市场1993$1= 5.76 (9.65)外汇稳定基金建立第六时期： 人