教程分析讲稿1

1、Title-Indian GDP data turning a little too Chinese. (fake)Facts-India is the fastest-growing large economy in the world, with 8 percent in the every quarter.Many people doubt its accuracy.ClaimAlthough the GDP growth of India remains strong, there are some potential issues and problems behind.Countr

2、y-IndiaTheory -Monetary Policy , demonetisation, private consumption, bank reverseEvidence-Indias GDP grew at 7 percent, even throughgovernment withdrew high-value currency notes from circulation.Counterclaim-Is the data true or not?Indias largest car company, Maruti Suzuki, showed only a 3.5 percen

3、t increase in sales volume last quarter, but a 12 percent increase in revenue.Through demonetization, the government are taking away most of Indias cash overnight.Bank credit growth fell to a decades-long low in December.Rebuttal-After two bad monsoons, India finally enjoyed a good one last year, wh

4、ich tends to drive up demand and growth.Companies may have delayed cutting production after the note ban.So the impact on manufacturing may not be apparent yet.Conclusions-The GDP numbers thus dont catch the full effect of demonetization.Government made data a bit promising to offset the negative ef

5、fect of demonetisation as well as to rebuild the public confidence in economy.Implications-perhaps half of Indias output comes from the informal sector, one of the highest proportions in the world. The informal economy depends more on cash and was hit harder.Data Sources /news/economy/policy/is-indi

6、an-gdp-data-turning-a-little-too-chinese/articleshow/57422398.cmsLAYOUT OF NEWS STORIESCAN YOU TRUST INDIAS ECONOMIC DATAIndia is the fastest-growing large economy in the world, with 8 percent in the every quarter. Many people doubt its accuracy.Indias GDP grew at 7 percent, even through government

7、withdrew high-value currency notes from circulation.HOWEVER : one can question this data. Indias largest car company, Maruti Suzuki, showed only a 3.5 percent increase in sales volume last quarter, but a 12 percent increase in revenue.FURHTER through demonetization, the government are taking away mo

8、st of Indias cash overnight. NOT WITHSTANDING THAT: Bank credit growth fell to a decades-long low in December; After two bad monsoons, India finally enjoyed a good one last year, which tends to drive up demand and growth.Companies may have delayed cutting production after the note ban.So the impact

9、on manufacturing may not be apparent yet.ON REVIEW ONE CAN CONCLUDE: The GDP numbers thus dont catch the full effect of demonetization.Government made data a bit promising to offset the negative effect of demonetisation as well as to rebuild the public confidence inIMPLICATIONS perhaps half of India

10、s output comes from the informal sector, one of the highest proportions in the world. The informal economy depends more on cash and was hit harder.CAN YOU TRUST INDIAS ECONOMIC DATAIndia is the fastest-growing large economy in the world, with 8 percent in the every quarter (for how long?). Many peop

11、le doubt its accuracy.Indias GDP grew at 7 percent, even through government withdrew high-value currency notes from circulation. (does demonitisation have a one of effect?)HOWEVER : one can question this data. Indias largest car company, Maruti Suzuki, showed only a 3.5 percent increase in sales vol

12、ume last quarter, but a 12 percent increase in revenue.Effect on (C) FURHTER through demonetization, the government are taking away most of Indias cash overnight. (Was this to negate corruption in cash economy; effect on GDP?) NOT WITHSTANDING THAT: Bank credit growth fell to a decades-long low in D

13、ecember (why?); After two bad monsoons, India finally enjoyed a good one last year, which tends to drive up demand and growth.Companies may have delayed cutting production (why are they cutting production if demand ) after the note ban.So the impact on manufacturing may not be apparent yet.ON REVIEW ONE CAN CONCLUDE: The GDP numbers thus dont catch the full effect of demonetization.(any other global issues, oil price, Trump Election?) public confidence inIMPLICATIONS half