澳大利亚新兴企业：2月份的报告季将会发生什 么

1、Global Research 5 February2019Australian Emerging CompaniesWhats in store for February Reporting Season?Earnings momentum skewed to downside as de-rates dominateOver the past five months, we have seen negative consensus EPS revisions of -5% for 44% of our coverage universe for FY19E, compared to 5%

2、recording revisions of +5%. This has been combined with P/E ratio de-rates, with 42% of stocks recording a de-rate of -10% vs 21% recording a re-rate of 10%.Key positive earnings revisions (+5%): NWH and APXKey negative earnings revisions (-5%): FLN, NXT, GNC, KGN, BGA, GBT, AHG,CGC, ASG, CL1, BIN,

3、IVC, MP1, ECX, IMD, A2B, ADH, NWL and GXLKeyFYI 9E P/E re-rates (+10%): FLN, NXT, GNC, GEM, GXL, NVT, TNE, CKFandIMD Key FY19E P/E de-rates (-10%): FXL, WEB, CTD, ASL, PMV, ALG, NWH, BIN, ASG, SRV, ADH, CL1, BRG, SUL, GUD, BAP, AHG and ISDWhat is at risk of negative surprise?Negative risk to result:

4、 A2B, AHG, BGA, BRG, CL1, NWL and SRVNegativerisktooutlook:A2B,ADH,AHG,ASGJBIN,FXLJNWL,SRVandTGRDouble negative: A2B, AHG, NWL and SRVWhat about the positives?Positiverisktoresult:ADH,ALU,APX,ASL,CTD,CWY,GEM,IFM,IMD,TGRandWEB Positive risk to outlook: ADH, AMA, APX, BAP, CGC, CTD, CWY,FLN, GEM,IFM,I

5、MD, KGN, MP1, NWH and WEBDouble positive: ADH, APX, CTD, CWY, GEM, IFM, IMD, and WEBWhat would we own?Across the UBS Emerging Companies coverage, our key Buy calls are: ADH,CTD, GUD, IMD, MP1, NWH, NXT, TGR and WEB. We remain cautious on the near-term outlook for: A2B, AHG, BRG, FXL and SRV.Equities

6、AustraliaIndustrial, DiversifiedJordan Rogers, CFAAnalyst +61-2-9324 3639Tim PlumbeAnalyst +61-2-9324 3726Josh KannourakisAnalyst +61-2-9324 3736Apoorv SehgalAnalyst +61-2-9324 2715Cissy Xu Associate Analyst +61-2-9324 3609Figure 1: UBS Small Cap Coverage Key Picks & Sells heading into February Repo

7、rting SeasonAStockRatingTargetMeasureCY18EFY19EConsensusresultRisk to outlookGuidanceADHBuy$2.65EBIT$23m$48m$48mSit. PositiveSit. PositiveCTDBuy$31.20EBITDA$62m$149m$149mSit. PositivePositiveFY19E: Top-end of $144-150m EBITDA guidance rangeIMDBuy$1.65EBITDA$25m$52m$52mSit. PositivePositiveNo guidanc

8、e$136m $77m$55m $123m1H19E: Revenue $500m, EBITDA $70m, EBIT $45m FY19E: Revenue $183-188m, EBITDA $83-87mPositiveNeutralNeutralNeutral$140m $84mEBITDAEBITDA$2.35$9.30BuyBuyNWHNXTFY19E: Growth in volumes, sales and earnings FY19E:EBITDA$110mforexisting business,+$10mDOTWSit. Negative PositivePositiv

9、ePositive$59m $119m$5.00 Op NPAT$20.20 EBITDABuyBuyTGRWEBMP1 Buy $4.90 Revenue $15m$34mNeutral Sit. Positive FY19E: Revenue growthUBSe 1H19/ UBSeRisk toomom9m8mA2BNeutral$2.10NPAT$7m$15m$14mSit. NegativeSit. NegativeNo guidanceAHGNeutral$1.75NPAT$27m$55m$57mSit. NegativeNegativeFY19E: NPAT of $56-59

10、mBRGSell$11.20EBIT$57m$92m$94mNegativeNeutralNo guidanceFXLNeutral$1.45Cash NPAT$47m$95m$97mNeutralNegativeFY19E: Cash NPAT $95-100mSRVNeutral$4.25PBT$19m$37m$37mSit. NegativeSit. NegativeFY19E: PBT $34-40mSource: Company data, FactSet, UBSe Atable excludes GUD (a key pick) which reported on 30th Ja

11、nuary 2019This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Australia Ltd. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 15. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of inte

12、rest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.NEXTDC (NXT): Buy, PT $930Date: NXT will report 1H19 results in February (TBC)UBSe: 1H19E Revenue $83m (post AASB $71 m), EBITDA $30.3m (post AASB

13、$33.2m), NPAT -$7.5m, DPS OcpsCurrent guidance: Capex $430-470m, Post AASB: FY19E Revenue $183-188m, EBITDA $83-87m; Pre-AASB: Revenue $194-200m, U/lying EBITDA $75-80mUBS comment: The result could be messy, given the implementation of new AASB standards. We note that our forecasts are pre AASB (pos

14、t AASB shown above). We remain strong believers in the structural thematics for NXT as we enter the data generation era. We still see a long run-way to play out within the shift to the Cloud chapter, before we even start considering the data storage requirements around Big Data, Artificial Intellige

15、nce, Internet of Things, Autonomous Vehicles, etc. NXT is trading on a FY20E EV/EBITDA of26.2x, offering 3yr (FY19-22E) EBITDA CAGR of 39%, However, if we adjust for the investment in longer dated assets (M3, S3, P2), we estimate that NXTs operational assets are trading on a FY20E EV/EBITDA of20.3x,

16、 while those assets offer 3yr (FY19-22E) EBITDA CAGR of 36%. This compares to the global peers median of 15.3x and 13%, respectively. Against offshore peers, NXT effectively offers almost triple the EBITDA growth, for an underlying premium of 36%.Figure 22: Divisional EBITDA contribution ($m) + grou

17、p EBITDA margin1000800600400200070%60%50%40%30%20%10%(200) 0%FY16A FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY29E FY30ECorporateC1 S1 P1M2 B2 S2 P2 S3 M3 EBITDAmgn(RHS)Source: Company, UBSeFigure23: NXT capex, net debt, FCFandND/EBITDA profile - existing expansionCapex

18、 Net Debt FCF NDZEBITDA(RHS)Source: Company, UBSeFigure 24: UBSe expected returnsFY16A FY18A FY20E FY22E FY24E FY26E FY28E FY30EROA ROE ROCESource: Company, UBSeNRW Holdings (NWH): Buy, PT $2.35Date: NWH will report 1H19 results in February (TBC)UBSe: 1H19E Revenue $505m, EBIT $45.5m, NPAT $29.1 m,

19、DPS I.OcpsCurrentguidance: 1H19E Revenue, EBITDAand EBIT guidanceof $500m, $70m and $45m respectively. FY19E Revenue guidance is$1.1bUBS comment: We estimate that NWH now has 90% revenue coverage for its FY19E guidance of $1.1b and see material upside risks to FY20E from further Iron Ore awards in 2

20、H19E, greater granularity on the Fitzroy Resources (Ironbark) ECI contract, Golding Civil work in hand and the RCR acquisition (UBSe 2-2.5x EBIT acquisition multiple). Mining division outlook commentary supporting a continuation of 1H19E margin momentum is a potential positive catalyst (UBSe 1H/2H E

21、BIT margins 13.5/9.5%). Civil awards from Koodaideri and Eliwana mine projects will total at least $1.6b and we expect further news flow of package awards across 2H19E. NWH is now the incumbent bulk earthworks contractor across both projects which is supportive of our 21% win rate assumption across

22、our Iron Ore project database. Upside risks to our win rate are heightened with 1 fl- 23% EPS upside in FY20E if NWH can win 33-50% of our estimated pipeline. NWH is now trading on FY19E EV/EBIT of 8.8x and P/E of 13.6x.Figure 25: Iron Ore awards remain a near-term catalyst.1600140012001000800FY20EF

23、Y21E BHP South Flank RIO KoodairdernFMG Eliwana Other Pipeline3006279901,5001,9803,0003.0%-11%-6%1%10%18%58%4.0%-10%-2%7%19%30%101%4.5%-9%0%10%23%36%123%5.5%-7%4%15%32%48%145%6.5%-5%7%21%41%59%188%7.5%-3%11%27%49%71%231%Figure 26: .with EPS upside from win-rates and marginsWin rate & incremental wor

24、k:10%21%33%50%66%100%Source: UBS estimates (EPS upside is based on FY20E)ClientFY18FY19EFY20EFY21EDalgaranga (Gascoyne)30604734Broadlea (Fitzroy)19Kogan Creek (CS Energy)30303030Middlemount110110110110Isaac Plains (Stanmore)53110110110Curragh (Coronado Coal)53707070Baralaba10140140130Altura20202020O

25、ther Mining (e.g. Ironbark)244284113Total (UBSe):347582611617Source: UBS estimates, company reportsFigure 27: Mining visibility is high and a core driver of earnings with $550m pa visible across FY19-21ESource: Company data, UBS estimatesTassal Group (TGR): Buy, PT $5.00Date: TGR will report 1H19 re

26、sults on Thursday, 14th FebruaryUBSe: 1H19E Revenue $292m, EBIT $45.9m, NPAT $29.5m, DPS 8.0cpsCurrent guidance: Growth in volumes, sales and earningsUBS comment: Over FY19E and the medium term we expect TGR to benefit from:Strong pricing environment - TGRs 2H18 domestic wholesale revenue/kg increas

27、ed 5.9% and is likely to increase further in 1H19E given competitor volume declines. Given the tight domestic market, we expect export volumes are likely to fall slightly in FY19E (UBSe 18% of sales); and,Expansion into Prawn production - through the acquisition of Fortune Groups three prawn farms.

28、Versus salmon, prawns consumption per capita is flat, and they do not have the same natural and regulatory barriers to entry (face import competition). However, new Country of Origin labelling (from July 2018) may see local production take share and there are opportunities for TGR to innovate throug

29、h De Costi.A key risk to near-term production costs and volumes (mostly felt in 1H20E) are water temperatures, which requires monitoring over the next few weeks.Figure 28: Average Hobart water temperatures () over January 2019 were similar to pepSource: S, UBSFigure 29: We forecast 1H20E salmon volu

30、me growth at a similar level to 1H19, and well below the strong 1H18Jan-Mar 2019Excess temperature vs normal year1 (inverse, LHS) 1H (next FY) TGR Salmon Volume GrowthSource: S (normal year has limited data - only FY17-18 average), UBS estimatesFigure 30: Domestic prices are stronger than internatio

31、nalo o o21000000000432109876548T00 8Ln 870.4 8VUC z.voo z.T_n 二辜 rue 9T00 9T_n 9vd4 9TUC gToo LnIm gEdq 9VUC 寸工00 寸vm 寸Edq 寸Tue COTOO COTW coLldqConsumption value ($m)- LHSPrice ($/kg) - RHSFigure 31: In value terms, Prawns are a $650m+ market with prices higher today ($20/kg) vs FY16 ($14/kg)Source

32、: ABARES, UBSAUD/kg - Avg (LHS)NOK/kg-Avg(RHS)Source: NASDAQ Salmon price index, UBS87.45.78713.210.084123.C漕sc gzCD .po OS po匕田8 LAL8Z8 .po oCXIg po $110m for existing business, and plus $10m including 7-month DOTW contributionUBS comment: We believe WEB stands out within our Emerging Companies cov

33、erage. We highlight the +25% organic EBITDA growth (inc. corp, costs) achieved in FY18. While the hot European summer may take some of the gloss off the FY19 result, we believe our forecast organic EBITDA growth of+17% in FY19E (+13% ex. B2B Asia) is achievable, and we also view the weather impact a

34、s a one off, with FY20E growth benefiting from a normalised European summer.With online transactions only accounting for 40% of Australia-wide market TTV, we believe B2C continues to benefit from the structural thematic of brick & mortar sales shifting to online. Meanwhile, B2B should continue to be

35、nefit from the change in competitive environment, whereby the two largest players stand to take share from the long tail of competitors. We focus on FY20E multiples (once Thomas Cook 叮C” and Destinations of the World DOTW contribute), whereby WEBs FY20E PE drops to 12.6x - while offering 3yr EPS CAG

36、R (FY20-23E) of +11 % (with potential upside risk to our forecasts).Figure 32: Waterfall - detailed FY18-21E EBITDA uplift ($m)25020015010050Source: Company, UBSe20020045%-50Figure 33: EBITDA ($m) trajectory and contribution40%15035%30%10025%20%5015%10%05%FY16AFY17AFY18AFY19EFY20EFY21ESunhotelsCorpo

37、rateLotsOfHotelsThomas CookOnline RepublicJac TravelEBITDA mgn- ex TC (RHS)WebjetFitRuumsEBITDAmgn(RHS)0%Source: Company, UBSeValuation Method and Risk StatementUBS Emerging Companies team use a combination of DCF, SOTP and EV multiple valuation methodologies. The primary risk for emerging industria

38、l stocks is a downturn in the broader Australia economy and reduction in demand for goods & services, particularly if negative operating leverage is applies to impact underlying earnings.Required DisclosuresThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities Australia Ltd, an affiliate ofUBSAG. UBS AG,

39、its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as UBS.For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its research product; historical performance information; and certain additional disclosures concerning UBS research recommendations, pleas

40、e visit . The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the C

41、hina Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 05 February 2019 12:15 AM GMT. UBS has designated certain Research department members as Derivative

42、s Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts co-author

43、research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analystisresponsibleforthederivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations.Analyst Certification: Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in

44、part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to UBS, and (2) no pa

45、rt of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.UBS Investment Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions12-Month RatingDefinitionCoverage1IB Services2BuyFSR is 6% ab

46、ove the MRA.49%26%NeutralFSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA.38%23%SellFSR is 6% below the MRA.14%14%Short-Term RatingDefinitionCoverage3IB Services4BuyStock price expected to rise within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event.1%1%SellStock price

47、expected to fall within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event.1%+10%: FLN, NXT, GNC, GEM, GXL, NVT, TNE, CKF and IMD.18 stocks had a PE de-rate in the past five months O：zmXZ)OX-F-OZTOQCO 招运三段2天茎登工会?用星芳百备合3缶春令名理三 |NW理6最-60%Figure 4: P/E Small Indu

48、s relative to large Indus (ex-Fin)P/E of Small Industrials relative to Large Industrials ex Financials Long-term averageFigure 3: 1yr fwd P/E Small Indus F Large Indus (ex-Fins)Source: FactSet, UBS Re-rateEPSchgFY19E Share price chgSource: FactSet, UBSe, data as at 01/02/19 Note: FLN, NXT and GNC we

49、re taken out due to the magnitude of re-rate and EPS revision.Figure 5: Performance - small growth and value2016201720182019Small Growth,Small ValueFigure 6: Small growth rel. to small value performanceSource: FactSet, UBSSource: FactSet, UBSSource: FactSet, UBSFebruary Results Preview SummaryFigure

50、 8: February results preview summaryStockRatingTargetMeasureUBSe 1H19 / CY18EUBSe FY19EConsensusRisk to resultRisk to outlookGuidanceA2BNeutral$2.10NPAT$7m$15m$14mSit. NegativeSit. NegativeNo guidanceADHBuy$2.65EBIT$23m$48m$48mSit. PositiveSit. PositiveAHGNeutral$1.75NPAT$27m$55m$57mSit. NegativeNeg

51、ativeFY19E: NPAT of $56-59mALGNeutral$2.00NPAT$1m$17m$16mNeutralNeutralFY19: Moderate margin expansion at Main EventALUNeutral$22.00EBITDA#$27m$59m$61 mSit. PositiveNeutralFY20E: Revenue US$200m, EBITDA margin 35% or betterAMABuy$1.40EBITDA$28m$60m$60mNeutralPositiveFY19E: EBITDA +$11.3m from Panel

52、acqs, ASG EBITDA $2.2mAPXBuy (UR)$16.00EBITDA*$65m$83m$66mSit. PositivePositiveCY18E: EBITDA $62-65mASGBuy$1.35EBITDA$24m$58m$62mNeutralSit. Negative1H19E: EBITDA $24mASLBuy$2.55NPAT$37m$100m$96mSit. PositiveNeutralFY19E: NPAT $98m, with 20-30% growth for ASL standaloneBAPBuy$7.05NPAT$45m$95m$97mNeu

53、tralSit. PositiveBGABuy$7.30EBITDA$60m$127m$128mSit. NegativeNeutralFY19E: EBITDA $123-130m, NPAT $44-48mBINBuy$3.45EBITDA$48m$140m$126mNeutralSit. NegativeNo guidanceBRGSell$11.20EBIT$57m$92m$94mNegativeNeutralNo guidance. $1m negative impact from Europe launchesCGCBuy$6.80NPAT$6m$75m$85mNeutralSit

54、. PositiveFY19E: NPAT-S to be flat yoyCL1Buy$2.20EBITDA$8m$16m$17mSit. NegativeNeutralFY19E: 47% EBITDA margins (prior to CEO departure)CTDBuy$31.20EBITDA$62m$149m$149mSit. PositivePositiveFY19E: Top-end of $144-150m EBITDA guidance rangeCWYBuy$2.15EBITDA$216m$455m$463mSit. PositiveSit. PositiveFY19

55、E: Improved earningsFLNNeutral$0.77Revenue*$51 m$61 m$50mNeutralPositiveCY18E: Positive EBITDA profitFXLNeutral$1.45Cash NPAT$47m$95m$97mNeutralNegativeFY19E: Cash NPAT $95-100mGBTNeutral$2.20EBITDA$7m$16m$16mNeutralNeutralFY19E: No EBITDA guidance, Strategic R&D $22mGEMBuy$3.20EBIT*$137m$154m$137mP

56、ositivePositiveCY18E: EBIT $136-139mGXLNeutral$5.55NPAT$18m$34m$35mNeutralNeutralNo guidanceIFMNeutral$1.30EBITDA$17m$37m$36mSit. PositivePositiveFY19E: Substantial increase in cash EBITDAIMDBuy$1.65EBITDA$25m$52m$52mSit. PositivePositiveNo guidanceISDNeutral$0.45EBITDA$11m$22m$22mNeutralNeutralFY19

57、E: Revenue low-mid $120m, EBITDA low-mid $20mIVCNeutral$12.00EBITDA*$121m$150m$112mNeutralNeutral3Q18 LFL case volumes -5.8% yoy (= revenue *-$17m)KGNBuy$5.50EBITDA$13m$26m$27mNeutralSit. PositiveNo guidanceMP1Buy$4.90Revenue$15m$34m$33mNeutralSit. PositiveFY19E: Revenue growthNVTNeutral$5.83EBITDA$

58、71 m$152m$152mNeutralNeutralFY19E: EBITDA $148-153mNWHBuy$2.35EBITDA$70m$136m$140mNeutralPositive1H19E: Revenue $500m, EBITDA $70m, EBIT $45mNWLSell$7.20NPAT$17m$35m$35mSit. NegativeNegativeFY19E: net inflows to increase, EBITDA margin similar to FY18NXTBuy$9.30EBITDA$30m$77m$84 mNeutralNeutralFY19E

59、: Revenue $183-188m, EBITDA $83-87m (AASB adj.)PMVBuy$19.80EBIT$107m$155m$163mNeutralNeutralNo guidanceSRVNeutral$4.25PBT$19m$37m$37mSit. NegativeSit. NegativeFY19E: PBT $34-40mSULBuy$8.65EBIT$120m$238m$235mNeutralNeutralNo guidanceTGRBuy$5.00Op NPAT$29m$55m$59mPositiveSit. NegativeFY19E: Growth in

60、volumes, sales and earningsWEBBuy$20.20EBITDA$58m$123m$119mPositivePositiveFY19E: EBITDA $110m for existing business, +$10m DOTWSource: Company data, FactSet, UBS estimates# USD; * CY18E - December year-end Note: PMV is July year-end (reporting 1H19 in March); UR = Under Review (for APX) Atable excl