金融市场与金融机构 第九章ppt课件

1、 Part IV Financial MarketsChapter 9The Stock Market.Why Firms BorrowTo acquire new assets or replace existing assetsThese can be financed byinternal financing (from retained earnings)external financing (debt or equity issue) Questions.Capital MarketsOriginal maturity is greater than one year.Best kn

2、own capital market securities: Stocks and BondsPrimary issuers of securities:Federal and Local GovernmentsCorporationsLargest purchasers of securities:Households. Our goal in this chapter is to get a “big picture overview of who owns stocks, how a stock exchange works, and how to read and understand

3、 the stock market information reported in the financial press.Chapter PreviewGoal.Chapter Outline 1. Investing in Stocks 2. Computing the Price of Common Stock 3. Stock Market Indexes.StocksRepresents ownership in a firm Earn a return in two waysAppreciation/Depreciation the price of the stock rises

4、/falls over timeCash Flows - dividends are paid to the stockholder periodically.Example.20010年3月19日因实施10转增10股而出现向下的大缺口，但这并不意味着股价的下跌除权大缺口Example.宣布日登记日除权除息日支付日例:某上市公司3月8日公布上年度分红方案:在3月8日公司召开的股东大会上,经过了董事会关于每股普通股分派股息1元的年度分红方案.一切在3月18日前持有本公司股票的股东如将在3月17日登记都将获得这一股利.股利将在4月4日发放.在本例中,3月8日即是股利的宣布日登记日就是3月17日3月

5、18日就是除权除息日,在这天之后购入股票的投资者就不能获得股利,假设市场有效,股票价钱会在这日下跌4月4日是股利的支付日除息和除权. 除权:在年度分红派息时,假设是送红股或者是配股,称为除权.大盘显示:XRxxx 除息:在年度分红派息时,假设是分现金,称为除息.大盘显示:DRxxx 除权除息:在年度分红派息时,假设是既送红股或者是配股又分现金,称为除权除息.大盘显示:XDxxx.除息和除权.某股票股权登记日的收盘价是24.75元，每10股送3股，即每股送红股数为0.3，那么次日除权报价为：pC=1+RspC-1Example24.7510.3=19.04元.某股票股权登记日的收盘价为18.00

6、元，10股配3股，即每股配股数为0.3，配股价为每股6.00元，那么次日除权价为：18.006.000.310.3 =15.23元pC=1+RppC-1+Pp*RpExample. 某股票股权登记日的收盘价为20.35元，送1股，配2股，配股价为5.50元/股，即每股送0.1股，配0.2股，那么次日除权价为：20.355.5016.5元pC=1+Rs+RppC-1+Pp*RpExample.某股票股权登记日的收盘价为20.35元，每10股派发现金红利4.00元，送1股，配2股，配股价为5.50元/股，即每股分红0.4元，送0.1股，配0.2股，那么次日除权除息价为：pC=1

7、+Rs+RppC-1+Pp*Rp-e20.350.45.5016.19元Example.Common stock vs. Preferred stockThe fundamental ownership claim in a public corporationA hybrid security that has characteristics of both bonds and common stock.Characteristics of Common StockDividendsVoting RightsResidual ClaimLimited Liability.

8、Characteristics of Preferred StockSimilar to common stock in that it represents an ownership interest but, like bonds, pays a fixed periodic dividendSenior to common stock but junior to bondsGenerally do not have voting rights.Blue chipA stockB stockN stockH stock中国最大的证券买卖所-上海证券买卖所.Primary and Secon

9、dary Markets OverviewPrimary Marketfirm can raise equity capital in its initial public offering (IPO)firm can raise equity capital in a subsequent seasoned equity offering (SEO)Secondary Marketstrading of shares among investors. 发行者证交所证券商投资者承销商流通市场发行市场初级发行、再发行买卖市场、二级市场证券投资咨询机构证券评级机构证券结算登记机构会计师事务所资产评

10、价事务所律师事务所自律性组织.Public Issue公募- Sale of bonds or stock to the general public.The dominant private placement lender in this group is the life-insurance category (pension funds and bank trust departments are very active as well).Public Issue vs. Private IssuePrivate Placement私募- The sale of an entire i

11、ssue of unregistered securities (usually bonds) directly to one purchaser or a group of purchasers (usually financial intermediaries).Primary Market.Initial public offerings (IPOs)First-time offering of shares to the publicFirm must provide information to publicRegistration statement to SECProspectu

12、sFirm is assisted by an investment bankerPerformance of IPOsPrice generally rises on first dayLonger-term performance of IPOs is poorPublic Issuehoovers.Securities are sold to hundreds, and often thousands, of investors under a formal contract overseen by federal and state regulatory authorities.Whe

13、n a company issues securities to the general public, it is usually uses the services of an investment banker.Public Issue. A financial institution that underwrites 承销(purchases at a fixed price on a fixed date) new securities for resale.Investment Banker Stocks Stocks Issuing Investment InvestorsCor

14、poration Bank Funds Fundsfirm commitment underwriting orbest efforts underwriting代销.If the security issue does not sell well, either because of an adverse turn in the market or because it is overpriced, the underwriter, not the company, takes the loss.Underwriting - firm commitment underwriting.Unde

15、rwriting Syndicate承销团 - A temporary combination of investment banking firms formed to sell a new security issue.Best Efforts Offering - A security offering in which the investment bankers agree to use only their best efforts to sell the issuers securities. The investment bankers do not commit to pur

16、chase any unsold securities.Secondary MarketsOrganized exchanges Larges U.S. Exchange is the NYSEOthers include Nikkei, LSE, DAX, etc.Listing requirements exclude small firmsMust own a seat on exchange in order to tradeTrading resembles an auctionOver-the-counter marketsBest example is NASDAQDealers

17、 stand ready to make a marketNo trading floor or specific locationTelecommunications network.按照组织程度将证券流通市场分为场内买卖市场和场外买卖市场。国外还有第三市场、第四市场。买卖所场外买卖市场第三市场第四市场场内买卖市场Secondary Markets.场内买卖市场是由证券买卖所组织的集中买卖市场，有固定的买卖场所和买卖活动时间。证券买卖所接受和办理符合有头法律法规的证券上市买卖，投资者那么经过证券商在证券买卖所进展证券买卖。场外市场又称“店头市场或“柜台市场，主要是指在证券买卖所之外构成的证券

18、买卖市场。买卖对象主要是未上市的证券，由证券商和证券公司以自营的方式进展买卖。.第三市场是场外买卖市场的一部分，实践上是“已上市证券的场外买卖市场。主要是为顺应大额投资者的需求开展起来的，参与者都是投资机构，买卖量不多，但是每笔成交数额较大，经纪人佣金较低。第四市场是指投资者和证券资产持有者绕开通常的证券经纪人，相互之间利用电子计算机网络进展大宗股票买卖的场外买卖市场。参与者大都是大企业和公司，它们进展大宗股票买卖，主要是为了不暴露目的，故不会对证券的其他市场构成压力。.Work the WebFor up-to-date information on the NYSE, hit:nyse.我

19、国的证券买卖市场我国目前的证券买卖市场主要由证券买卖所市场和场外买卖市场组成。我国的证券买卖所市场目前仅有上海、深圳两大证券买卖所。它们均由中国人民银行同意，按国际通行的会员制方式组成，为非盈利性的事业法人。按照上市公司的属性将证券买卖所市场分为主板市场和二板市场高科技板、创业板。.证券买卖的方式和程序证券买卖方式现货买卖和期货买卖现款现券买卖和信誉买卖证券买卖程序委托成交清算交割过户.股票买卖顺序开户委托竞价成交交割过户现金帐户券商股票帐户证交所时间优先价钱优先当日隔日例行日集合竞价延续竞价.an order for the broker and market specialist to t

20、ransact at the best price available when the order reaches the postan order to transact at a specified price (the limit price)Market orderLimit orderTwo Common Types of Orders.以1厘钱的价钱买到收盘价近0.70元的海尔认沽权证，南京一股民820元变56万 一天炒出了700倍的收益！南京股民张浩化名2007年2月28日以1厘钱的价钱，买到收盘价近0.70元的82万份海尔认沽权证。转眼之间，820元变成了56万元！ 张浩通知

21、记者，他从去年8月1日出现市价委托规那么后，就留了心，“市价委托就是当天必需求成交的，按市价买卖，只需有人挂出了按市价委托的卖单，而大家恰恰都不买、没有什么买单，实际上我就有能够以1厘钱的价钱买到权证。 从那以后，只需有空，张浩每个买卖日都会挂出1厘钱的买单。昨天，张浩动用了账户上1万元钱，挂出了海尔等10个认沽权证种类的买单，“今天只需10个认沽权证有能够挂到1厘钱的，我事先都研讨过了，今天全挂了。 Case. “说实话我也没想到今天真的会成交。张浩称，收盘之后他查了一下本人的账户，一下子多出了50多万。“我想是不是搞错了？以前也有一次，由于系统出错，我的账户上多出了100多万。但是这次张浩

22、仔细看了盘面之后，确信这次50多万是真的到了本人的账户上。“由于今天的盘面上我看到了1厘钱的成交价钱。我一共买到82万份海尔认沽权证。 “这种情况发生，只需在一种情况下，那就是在9：25分9：30之间，首先要有人挂出按市价委托的卖单，卖单先进买卖所，同时没有什么买单。然后张先生挂出了1厘钱的买单，买单后进买卖所。 Case.Borrow a portion of the funds from brokerMargin is the amount of equity an investor provideMagnifies returns (both good and bad)Purchasin

23、g stock on margin融资Borrow stock and sellRepay stock loan, hopefully at a lower priceInvestor able to have potential profit from decline in stock price Short sales融券.X Corp$7050%Initial Margin40%Maintenance Margin1000Shares PurchasedInitial PositionStock $70,000 Borrowed $35,000 Equity $35,000Example

24、Margin Trading .Stock price falls to $60 per shareNew PositionStock $60,000 Borrowed $35,000 Equity 25,000Margin% = $25,000/$60,000 = 41.67%ExampleMargin Trading .Example Short Sale Z Corp100 Shares50%Initial Margin30%Maintenance Margin$100Initial PriceSale Proceeds$10,000Margin & Equity 5,000Stock

25、Owed 10,000.Stock Price Rises to $110Sale Proceeds$10,000Initial Margin 5,000Stock Owed 11,000Net Equity 4,000Margin % (4000/11000) 36%Example Short Sale .对券商提供融资融券效力的内容规定第十三条 证券公司为客户买卖证券提供融资融券效力的，必需符合以下风险控制目的规范： 一对单个客户融资业务规模不得超越净资本的1%； 二对单个客户融券业务规模不得超越净资本的1%； 三接受单只股票质押的市值不得超越净资本的30%； 四按对客户融资业务规模的10

26、%计算风险预备； 五按对客户融券业务规模的10%计算风险预备。.Reading Stock QuotationsStock prices are quoted online and in newspapersQuotes report the Stock price, including yearly high and lowTicker symbolDollar dividend and dividend yieldPrice-earnings ratioVolumeDaily high and lowClosing priceNet change.Stock Market Quotatio

27、n for General Motors Corporation, March 11, 2003.股票网站：全景网络 /docs/first/important/index.html新浪股评天地 finance.sina/review/index.html和讯网 homeway华泰证券 htsc巨潮信息深交所 cninfo上交所 sse证券之星股票 stockstar.online.sh/simple/.“委比是衡量一段时间内场内买、卖盘强弱的技术目的。它的计算公式为： 委比=(委买手数委卖手数)/(委买手数委卖手数)100 委买量与委卖量之差 当日总成交手数与近期平均成交手数的比值。 成交价

28、是卖出价时成交的手数总和称为外盘成交价是买入价时成交的手数总和称为内盘Reading Stock Quotations.Chapter Outline 1. Investing in Stocks 2. Computing the Price of Common Stock 3. Stock Market Indexes.Computing the Price of Common StockValuing common stock is, in theory, no different from valuing debt securities: determine the future cas

29、h flows and discount them to the present at an appropriate discount rate.These methods are grouped into two categories:dividend discount modelsprice ratio models.(1) Future dividends(2) Future sale of the common stock sharesWhat cash flows will a shareholder receive when owning shares of common stoc

30、k?Dividend Discount Method.(1 + ke)1(1 + ke)2(1 + ke)V =+ . +Div1DivDiv2= St=1(1 + ke)tDivtDivt:Cash Dividend at time tke: Equity investors required returnDividend Discount Method.The basic dividend discount model adjusted for the future stock sale.(1 + ke)1(1 + ke)2(1 + ke)nV =+ . +Div1Divn + Price

31、nDiv2n:The year in which the firms shares are expected to be sold.Pricen:The expected share price in year n. Dividend Discount Method.The zero growth model assumes that dividends will grow forever at the rate g = 0.(1 + ke)1(1 + ke)2(1 + ke)VZG =+ . +D1D=keD1D1:Dividend paid at time 1.ke: Investors

32、required return.D2Zero Growth Model .Stock ZG has an expected growth rate of 0%. Each share of stock just received an annual $3.24 dividend per share. The appropriate discount rate is 15%. What is the value of the common stock?D = $3.24VZG = D / ke = $3.24 / .15 = $21.60Zero Growth Model Example.(1

33、+ ke)1(1 + ke)2(1 + ke)V =+ . +D0(1+g)D0(1+g)=(ke - g)D1D1:Dividend paid at time 1.g : The constant growth rate.ke: Investors required return.D0(1+g)2 The Gordon Growth ModelSame as the previous model, but it assumes that dividend grow at a constant rate, g. That is,Div(t+1) = Divt x (1 + g).Constan

34、t Growth Model ExampleStock CG has an expected dividend growth rate of 8%. Each share of stock just received an annual $3.24 dividend. The appropriate discount rate is 15%. What is the value of the common stock?D1 = $3.24 ( 1 + .08 ) = $3.50VCG = D1 / ( ke - g ) = $3.50 / ( .15 - .08 ) = $50.What is

35、 the price for a stock with an expected dividend and price next year of $0.16 and $60, respectively? Use a 12% discount rateAnswer:Price = Other Example.Potential errors in estimating dividendsPotential errors in estimating growth ratePotential errors in estimating required returnNot all firms pay d

36、ividendsLimitations of the Dividend Discount Model.Computing the Price of Common Stock: Price Ratio ModelsThe price earnings ratio (PE) is a widely watched measure of much the market is willing to pay for $1.00 of earnings from the firms.Price = .If the industry PE ratio for a firm is 16, what is th

37、e current stock price for a firm with earnings for $1.13 / share?Answer:Price = 16 x $1.13 = $18.08Example.Apply the mean PE ratio of publicly traded competitorsUse expected earnings rather than historicalEquation:FirmsStock = Expected EPS Mean industry PE ratioPriceComputing the Price of Common Sto

38、ck: The Price Earnings Valuation Method.Reasons for different valuationsDifferent earnings forecastsDifferent PE multipliersDifferent comparison or benchmark firmsLimitations of the PE methodErrors in forecast Based on PE, which some analysts questionComputing the Price of Common Stock: The Price Ea

39、rnings Valuation Method.资产的市场价值能否反映资产的真实价值呢？价值学派本杰明.格雷厄姆、巴菲特为首公司的市场价值不能反映公司的真实价值，企业的真实价值应是企业的内在价值证券分析的主要内容是判别股票的市场价值能否真实地表达了企业内在价值。市场学派20世纪70年代以来流行“有效市场实际，萨缪尔森 (1 965)、法玛 (1 965)、卢卡斯 (1 978)、格罗斯曼和斯蒂格利茨 (1 980 )等的努力 ,构成并开展了资本市场的有效率市场实际。法玛 (1 970 ,1 991 )对有效率资本市场实际进展了综合总结。市场是完全有效的，一切关于股票的公开信息都曾经适当地反映在

40、了它们的价钱中。所以，企业的市场价值是对公司真实价值的最为准确的反映和估计。证券分析的主要内容是研讨证券市场。经过研讨证券市场价钱走势，来确定证券投资的风险和收益。自从有效市场实际问世以来，有关有效市场假设的各种检验和研讨文献浩如烟海，有效市场实际和价值学派的争论从未停顿过。但是，价值学派对有效市场实际的最严重的打击是，价值学派的沃伦.巴菲特和彼得.林奇等人年复一年地获得了超出市场平均程度的投资报答。.巴菲特过去35年的业绩.巴菲特过去35年的业绩.巴菲特的投资哲学追求简单，防止复杂投资组合简单喜欢简单的公司，不喜欢业务和财务复杂的公司长期持有不碰本人不懂的股票手边永远持有现金，并在行情大幅回

41、档的时候逢低买进.Chapter Outline 1. Investing in Stocks 2. Computing the Price of Common Stock 3. Stock Market Indexes.2021/09/22.Stock indices used to measure general behavior of market 股价指数是运用统计学中的指数方法编制而成的，反映股市总体价钱或某类股价变动和走势的目的。 Best known index is the DOW Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)the S&P 500the NASDAQ composite.Stock Market Indexes.Work the WebFor more on the Dow, visit :averages.dowjonesLook for “About the Averages.St