节能减排与十一五规划目标实现PPT课件

1、第1页/共49页 Population Growth 第2页/共49页第3页/共49页第4页/共49页U.S. Bureau of the CensusVitousek (1994)GLOBAL CHANGES Population Nitrogen Fixation Temperature Biodiversity .1. 全球范围的影响地球系统功能的变化2. 不仅仅只是气候变化3. 自然和人类的变化同时作用4. 社会经济和生物物理的 变化同时作用例如:Reid & Miller (1989)第5页/共49页China has 22% of the worlds population wit

2、h limited natural resourcesCultivated land: 1/3 of world average levelWater: 1/4 of world average levelForestry: 1/5 of world average levelOil: 1/10 of world average levelNatural Gas: 1/22 of world average level第6页/共49页Consumption 8% Oil- of the world 40% Cement- of the world 31% Coal- of the world

3、25% Aluminum- of the world 31% Crude steel of the worldProduction GDP 4%- of the worldConsumption in China第7页/共49页第8页/共49页Rapid Urbanization Generates Severe Environmental ProblemsEconomic Cost of Air and Water PollutionGDP 5-7% (3 5%)Quality of Life & Environmental Health of460 millions (500 millio

4、ns) population in Urban Environment第9页/共49页Environmental Problems InterconnectThrough Interface Matter Exchange bottom mudNutrient SaltCarbon Source Organic MatterHeavy Metalorganic pollutantTerrestrial EcosystemAtmosphere Biosphere ExchangeSO2, NOx, NH3, VOCNH4+, NO3-, SO42-Oxidant (PAN, O3)，partic

5、ulatePAH，PCB，organic pesticideWaterHydrophytic Ecosystem第10页/共49页Health Effects of Air Pollution in China(UNDP 2002)Each year: 1.5 million cases of bronchitis, and 23,000 and 13,000 deaths from respiratory and heart diseases.In 2000: 600,000 premature deaths, 5.5 million cases of chronic bronchitis,

6、 and 20 million cases of respiratory illnessChildrens blood-lead levels: up to 80 percent above critical levels7.4 million working days lost to health problems related to air pollution第11页/共49页 Health Effects of Water Pollution in China(UNDP 2002)Only 19 percent of the total population has access to

7、 tap water in China. The drinking water of 6 of Chinas 27 largest cities does not meet Chinas national standards. Groundwater does not meet standards in 23 of these cities.In 1993 approximately 8 percent of agricultural areas used unfit water for agricultural purposes, which resulted in an estimated

8、 loss of grain production of 1 million tons.The World Bank (Johnson et al., 1997) has estimated that if wastewater treatment were increased from the current 20% to 50% coverage, total grain production could increase by 24 million tons by 2020.第12页/共49页In Zhejiang Province : five to eight times morbi

9、dity from intestinal cancer caused by microcystin toxins in water, than among people who have access to cleaner drinking waterChina now has highest liver cancer death rate in the world. In southern China, an investigation of 560,000 people in 23 villages and towns showed that between 1987 and 1989,

10、cancer mortality was 172 per 100,000There were twice as many cancer patients in the sewage-irrigated area (Wu et al., 1999).第13页/共49页第14页/共49页第15页/共49页第16页/共49页第17页/共49页第18页/共49页Prediction for China Energy Development第19页/共49页 Sharp increase of Demand: -energy consumption per capita in 2003 was 1.2

11、tons Standard Coal- 2020 will be 2.0 tons.- 2050 will reach 3.0 tons.Coal as most important Primary Energy:- 2003 67% of total energy consumption- 2050 40% of total energy consumption*Annual production will become stable at around 3 billion t after 2020.Ensuring oil supply is the key to energy secur

12、ity of China:-2003 imported oil 35% of total oil consumption.*domestic oil production stable at around 0.18 billion tons per year-2050 imported oil will reach a height of 78% of total oil consumption.Large scale development of Renewable energy : 2020 renewable energy is expected to amount to 15% 205

13、0 renewable energy is expected to amount to 30%Main features of Energy Development of China in the first half of 21 century:第20页/共49页 1. High-efficiency low-pollution coal-fired Power Generation2. Bio-fuel & other liquid fuels for oil replacement 3. Energy saving- alternative fuel and electronic aut

14、omobile4. Electrification rail transportation5. Large scale renewable energy generation6. Fast-growing plants for bio-fuel & H-generation from solar energy Six Strategic Areas of Development:第21页/共49页ENERGY EFFICIENCY in China1/3 of US1/9 of Japan第22页/共49页第23页/共49页 OPPORTUNITIES第24页/共49页第25页/共49页第26

15、页/共49页第27页/共49页第28页/共49页第29页/共49页第30页/共49页第31页/共49页第32页/共49页 Beyond 2020 Vision 50 Years Energy Plan 50 Years Water Plan 50 Years Human Resources Development Plan 50 Years International Strategy (non-traditional) 第33页/共49页1st Industrial Revolution I = P x A x T1I= Environmental ImpactP= PopulationA

16、= AffluenceT1 = Current Technology =Extractive Linear Fossil Fuel Driven Abusive Wasteful Focused on Labor Productivity 第34页/共49页 P x A T2T2 = Future Technology=reusable, cyclic Solar Energy Hydrogen Economy Biomimetic Technology Efficient Technology etc 2nd Industrial RevolutionI =第35页/共49页Systemat

17、ic Changes System ReformSmall and Medium EnterpriseEnvironmental and Intellectual Property ProtectionInnovative Culture Extension Service to Local & Provincial levelsLeadership Development for Changing world CHALLENGES第36页/共49页 Take Home Message: 第37页/共49页OpportunitiesEnvironmental Crisis第38页/共49页第3

18、9页/共49页 中国特色、世界影响第40页/共49页China Climate Exchange- policy recommendation CCX Chicago Climate Exchange International Standard Validation, Audition, Monitoring capacity building Consulting and training system Technology import and Innovation第41页/共49页EconomicEnvironmentEquityEducationExtension Service Station第42页/共49页知行合一 天人合一第43页/共49页第44页/共49页第45页/共49页第46页/共49页 Proactive vs reactiveSystem Science, System Engineering and System ManagementHuman Resource Development/Team building- Cooperative/competitiveInnovation第47页/共49页I. Regiona