金融学 汇率ppt

1、第第3 3章章 汇率汇率国际收支国际收支第一节第一节外汇、汇率与外汇市场外汇、汇率与外汇市场第二节第二节国际储备国际储备第三节第三节第四节第四节国际资本流动国际资本流动p掌握国际收支的含义及其失衡的原因和调掌握国际收支的含义及其失衡的原因和调节节p掌握外汇、汇率的定义及汇率标价方法掌握外汇、汇率的定义及汇率标价方法p掌握主要的汇率决定理论掌握主要的汇率决定理论p掌握国际储备的含义及其构成掌握国际储备的含义及其构成p掌握国际资本流动的含义、成因、影响掌握国际资本流动的含义、成因、影响 第一节第一节 国际收支国际收支一、国际收支与国际收支平衡表一、国际收支与国际收支平衡表（一）国际收支（一）国际收

2、支 IMFIMF: The balance of payments is a statistical statement that systematically summarizes, for a specific time period, the economic transactions of an economy with the rest of the world. Transactions, for the most part between residents and nonresidents.A flow concept. The usual reporting period i

3、s a year. A stock concept:International investment position (IIP) .2006年国家外汇管理局首次公布中国国际投资头寸表 Economic transaction means the transfer from one economic agent (individual, business,etc.) to another of an economic value. It includes exchange(bilateral transfer) and transfer(unilateral transfer) of good

4、s, services or assets, migration and other imputed transactions.Resident and non-resident The concept of resident（居民） does not coincide with that of citizen（公民）, though a considerable degree of overlapping normally exists. How to define residents? Residents are the persons whose general center of in

5、terest is considered to rest in the given economy,that is ,who consume goods and services, participate in production, or engage in other economic activities in the territory of an economy on other than a temporary basis, even if they have a foreign citizenship. 中国居民中国居民As regards individuals: Migran

6、ts are to be considered as residents of the country in which they work, even if they maintain the citizenship of the country of origin; Tourists,commercial travellers are considered residents of the country of origin provided that their stay abroad is for less than one year; students and medical pat

7、ients are treated as travellers,regardless of the length of stay; Official diplomatic and consular representatives, members of the armed forces abroad are in any case residents of the country of origin. As regards non-individuals: The general governments and private non-profit bodies are considered

8、residents of the relative country; Enterprises(either private or public) are considered as residents of the country where it operates; International organizations are treated as being foreign residents in any country even though they are located in the reporting country.（二）国际收支平衡表（二）国际收支平衡表1国际收支平衡表的

9、记账原理国际收支平衡表的记账原理 They are based upon the principle of double-entry book-keeping. Each transaction has two sides to it, a receipt (source)and a payment (use), and both are recorded in the BOPs. Receipt of currencyCredit item(a plus)Payment of currency Debit item(a minus)Debit(-)Credit(+)Inflows of re

10、al sourcesOutflows of real sourcesIncreases in financial assetsDecreases in financial assetsDecreases in liabilitiesIncreases in liabilities3国际收支平衡表的的主要内容国际收支平衡表的的主要内容 BOP statement is presented with three major components: Current account:refer to all real transfers. Capital account:record transfer

11、s of ownership and financial assets and liabilities Errors and Omissions The Current Account This section is divided into four categories (1)Goods 商品 (2)Services 劳务 (3)Income收益 (4)Current Transfers经常转移1.Goods: goods import and export 2.Services: services import and export (travel services, transport

12、ation services and financial services,etc.)3.Income: (1)Compensation of employees: seasonal workers,border workers.(2)Investment income: profits, interest, dividends received and paid.4.Current transfers(other than capital transfer): receipts or payments for which there is no corresponding quid pro

13、quo(补偿物，等价物）. Charitable giving Migrant workers transfers to families in their home countriesCurrent AccountABDCGoodsServicesIncomeCurrent transfersThe capital and financial accounts(一)The capital account(资本账户)1.Capital transfers Current transfers directly affect the level of disposable income and s

14、hould influence the consumption of goods or services. Capital Transfers同固定资产收买或同固定资产收买或放弃相联系的或以放弃相联系的或以其为债务条件的其为债务条件的资本转移资本转移 .固定资产所有权固定资产所有权的转移的转移 债权人不索取任债权人不索取任何回报而取消的何回报而取消的债务债务 二三一The capital and financial accounts(一)The capital account(资本账户)2.Acquisition/disposal of nonproduced, nonfinancial as

15、sets: tangible assets(land and subsoil assets) and intangibles (patents, copyrights, trademarks, franchises, etc.)(二)The financial account1.Direct investments: equity capital, reinvested earnings, and other capital.2.Portfolio investments: equity securities & debt securities.3.Other investments: lon

16、g-term and short-term trade credits, loans, currency & deposits, other accounts receivable and payable.4.Reserve assets: monetary gold, foreign exchange, reserve position in the IMF, SDRsNet errors and omissionsIn theory, the sum of all the items recorded in the current account,the capital and finan

17、cial account should sum to zero.If 0 incorporate statistical discrepancy for any difference between the sum of credits and debits to keep credit and debit equal.How transactions are recorded?Example 1: The Boeing Corporation of the US exports an $80 million aircraft to the UK which is paid by Britis

18、h Airways debiting its US bank deposit account by a like amount.US balance of paymentsUK balance of paymentsCurrent accountExports of goods +$80mCurrent accountImports of goods -50mCapital accountReduced US bank liabilities to UK residents -$80mCapital accountReduction in US bank deposit assets +50m

19、Example 2: the US exports $1000 of goods to the UK in exchange for $1000 of services.US balance of paymentsUK balance of paymentsCurrent accountMerchandise exports +$1000Imports of services -$1000Current accountimports of goods -625Exports of services +625Example 3: A US investor decides to buy 500

20、of UK Treasury bills and to pay for them by debiting his US bank account and crediting the account of the UK Treasury held in New York.US balance of paymentsUK balance of paymentsCapital accountIncrease in UK treasury bond holdings -$800Decrease in US bank deposits +$800Capital accountIncreased bond

21、 liabilities to US residents +500Increase in US bank deposits -500Example 4: the US makes a gift of 1 million of goods to a UK charitable organization.US current accountUK current accountExports +$1.6mUnilateral payment -$1.6mImports -1mUnilateral receipt +1mFigure3:Balance of Payments of China in 2

22、007(billions of Dollars)ItemItemBalance Balance CreditCreditDebitDebitI Current Account371.83371.83 1467.88 1096.05 A. Goods and Services307.48 1342.21 1034.73 1.Goods315.38 1220.00 904.62 2.Services-7.90 122.21 130.11 B Income25.6983.0357.34 C. Current Transfers38.6742.653.98II Capital and Financia

23、l Account73.51 73.51 921.96 848.45 A. Capital Account3.10 3.31 0.22 B. Financial Account70.41 918.65 848.24 1.Direct Investment121.42 151.55 30.14 2. Portfolio Investment18.67 63.97 45.30 3.Other Investment-69.68 703.12 772.80 III Reserve Assets-461.74-461.74 0.24 461.98 IV Net Errors and Omissions1

24、6.40 16.40 16.40 0.00 Source: state administration of foreign exchange of China二、国际收支分析二、国际收支分析According to double-entry book-keeping principle, each credit in the accounts has a corresponding debit elsewhere, the sum of all items should be equal to zero.What is meant by a balance-of-payments defici

25、t or surplus?According to the motive underlying a transaction: Autonomous transaction:transactions take place independently of the balance of payments. Accommodating transaction:transactions finance any difference between autonomous receipts or payments . Autonomous receiptsautonomous payments=surpl

26、us Autonomous receipts0 , surplus. If the current account balance is a debit, 0, in surplus KA0, in deficit CA+KA=0, CA=-KA If CA0.3.The overall balance(OB)The overall balance=the current account balance+the capital and financial account balance(direct, portfolio and other investment)+the statistica

27、l error=-reserve assets balance OB0, in surplus OB0, in deficitSummary of key balance-of-payments concepts(+)exports of goods & services(-)imports of goods & services=trade balance(+)income received(-)income paid(+)current transfers receipts(-)current transfers payments=current account balance(+)cap

28、ital account receipts(-)capital account payments(+)capital(direct, portfolio, other investment) inflow(-)capital(direct, portfolio, other investment) outflow(+,-)statistical error=overall balance(+)official reserve decrease(-)official reserve increase=zeroSources of disequilibrium 临时性不平衡 结构性不平衡 周期性不

29、平衡 货币性不平衡 收入性不平衡三、国际收支调节（三、国际收支调节（BOP Adjustment） The BOP adjustment process takes two forms:Automatic forcesDiscretionary government policy2022-5-21财政金融学院杨柳制作45Balance of Payments Adjustment Gold Standard 国际金本位制 Gold can be freely minted converted (into paper currency at a stable ratio) imported or

30、 exported Price-specie-flow Mechanism /物价-硬币-流动机制David Hume2022-5-21财政金融学院杨柳制作47Balance of Payments Adjustment The market mechanism can be classified as: Price adjustment Income adjustment Interest adjustment Exchange rate adjustmentUnder fixed exchange ratesDeficitAuthorities have to buy the domest

31、ic currencyPrice decrease2022-5-21财政金融学院杨柳制作49Balance of Payments AdjustmentGovernment policy Expenditure-adjustment polices_Expenditure-changing polices:changes in government expenditures, taxes,or both,including fiscal polices and monetary polices_Expenditure-switching polices:changes in the direc

32、tion of expenditure,including exchange rate polices and direct controls2022-5-21财政金融学院杨柳制作50Balance of Payments AdjustmentGovernment policy Supply-adjustment polices Technology polices, industry polices Financing polices Use of government reserves Police mix第二节第二节 外汇、汇率与外汇市场外汇、汇率与外汇市场一、外汇与汇率一、外汇与汇率（

33、一）外汇的含义（一）外汇的含义 外国货币或以外国货币表示的能用于国际结算的支外国货币或以外国货币表示的能用于国际结算的支付手段付手段 （三）汇率及其标价方法（三）汇率及其标价方法 汇率，又称汇价，指一国货币以另一国货币汇率，又称汇价，指一国货币以另一国货币表示的价格，或者说是两国货币间的比价。表示的价格，或者说是两国货币间的比价。直接标价法：以一定单位（直接标价法：以一定单位（1个或者个或者100个、个、1000个、个、10000个外币单位）的外国货币作为个外币单位）的外国货币作为标准，折算为一定数额的本国货币来表示其汇标准，折算为一定数额的本国货币来表示其汇率。率。 间接标价法：以外国货币来

34、表示一定单位的本间接标价法：以外国货币来表示一定单位的本国货币的汇率表示方法。一般是一定单位的本国货币的汇率表示方法。一般是一定单位的本币能够折合成多少单位的外币。币能够折合成多少单位的外币。 二、外汇市场二、外汇市场（一）外汇市场及其构成（一）外汇市场及其构成外汇市场（外汇市场（Foreign Exchange Market），是指），是指进行外汇买卖的场所或网络。进行外汇买卖的场所或网络。有形市场和无形市场。有形市场和无形市场。一个一个24小时候连续周转的全球市场。小时候连续周转的全球市场。外汇市场上交易的参与者外汇市场上交易的参与者外汇银行外汇银行外汇经纪人外汇经纪人顾客顾客中央银行中央

35、银行（二）外汇市场交易的主要类型（二）外汇市场交易的主要类型1即期外汇交易即期外汇交易 又称现汇交易，是指买卖双方约定于成交后的两个又称现汇交易，是指买卖双方约定于成交后的两个营业日内交割的外汇交易。即期交易的交割日又称起营业日内交割的外汇交易。即期交易的交割日又称起息日，是指买卖双方将资金交与对方的日期。息日，是指买卖双方将资金交与对方的日期。2远期外汇交易远期外汇交易 又称期汇交易，是指外汇买卖成交后并不立即办理又称期汇交易，是指外汇买卖成交后并不立即办理交割，而是根据合同的规定，在约定的日期按约定的交割，而是根据合同的规定，在约定的日期按约定的汇率办理交割的外汇交易。远期外汇交易的基本动

36、机汇率办理交割的外汇交易。远期外汇交易的基本动机主要是避险保值和投机获利。主要是避险保值和投机获利。三、汇率决定理论三、汇率决定理论（一）购买力平价理论（一）购买力平价理论卡塞尔是购买力平价理论的首创者。卡塞尔是购买力平价理论的首创者。 绝对购买力平价：某一时点上汇率决定的基础绝对购买力平价：某一时点上汇率决定的基础相对购买力平价：某一段时间内汇率变动的原因相对购买力平价：某一段时间内汇率变动的原因1绝对购买力平价：汇率为两国物价之比绝对购买力平价：汇率为两国物价之比 用用 分别表示本国物价水平和外国物价水平，则购买分别表示本国物价水平和外国物价水平，则购买力平价可以写成：力平价可以写成： (

37、是直接标价法下的汇率）是直接标价法下的汇率）2相对购买力平价：汇率的变化幅度取决于相对购买力平价：汇率的变化幅度取决于 两国两国通胀率的差异通胀率的差异 如果本国通胀率超过外国，则本币将贬值。若中国和美如果本国通胀率超过外国，则本币将贬值。若中国和美国的通胀率分别为国的通胀率分别为6%和和4%，则人民币将贬值，则人民币将贬值2%PSP*,P PSPP （二）利率平价理论（二）利率平价理论凯恩斯是利率平价理论的代表凯恩斯是利率平价理论的代表 国际间资本流动的主要目的是获得投资收益。利国际间资本流动的主要目的是获得投资收益。利率的变化引起资本的流入流出，而资本的流出流率的变化引起资本的流入流出，而

38、资本的流出流入改变外汇供求关系进而使汇率发生相应的变化入改变外汇供求关系进而使汇率发生相应的变化 两国之间的利率差会由两国间的汇率差所抵消，两国之间的利率差会由两国间的汇率差所抵消，使得同一笔资金在国内外投资的收益相等使得同一笔资金在国内外投资的收益相等 （三）国际收支说（三）国际收支说从分析国际收支进而影响汇率变动因素入手从分析国际收支进而影响汇率变动因素入手外汇汇率由外汇供求决定，而外汇供求又由国际外汇汇率由外汇供求决定，而外汇供求又由国际收支决定收支决定当国际收支赤字，外汇升值，反之贬值（四）资产收支说（四）资产收支说重视金融资产市场均衡对汇率变动的影响重视金融资产市场均衡对汇率变动的影

39、响汇率变动可以消除资产市场的超额供给或者需求汇率变动可以消除资产市场的超额供给或者需求均衡汇率就是两国资产市场供求存量保持均衡时两国货币之间的相对价格三、汇率制度三、汇率制度（一）固定汇率制度（一）固定汇率制度 固定汇率制度是指两国货币比价基本固定，现实汇率固定汇率制度是指两国货币比价基本固定，现实汇率只围绕平价在很小范围内上下波动。只围绕平价在很小范围内上下波动。 国际金本位制下的汇率制度国际金本位制下的汇率制度 布雷顿森林体系下的汇率制度布雷顿森林体系下的汇率制度英镑英镑英国英国美元美元GoldconvertibilityGoldconvertibility汇率1 GBP = 4.8665

40、 USD1 GBP = 7.32238g gold1 USD = 1.50463g gold美国美国铸币平价铸币平价 假设在金本位制度下, 铸币平价: 1GBP = 4.8665 USD 运输成本 = 0.03 USD$4.8665铸币平价铸币平价+0.03-0.03$4.8965 /黄金输出点黄金输出点$4.8365 /黄金输入点黄金输入点黄金黄金货币货币 C货币货币 B货币货币 A美元美元1 盎司黄金盎司黄金 = 35 USDDollar Convertibility10/$Dollar Convertibility20/$汇率汇率0.5 A / B“双挂钩、一固定、上下限、政府干预双挂钩

41、、一固定、上下限、政府干预” -美元与黄金挂钩，各国货币与美元挂钩 -各国货币平价一经国际货币基金组织确定就基本固 定，不得随意变动上下限 -外汇市场上现实汇率的变动幅度不得超过平价1% -汇率波动幅度超过规定的界限时，各成员国货币当 局有义务采取市场干预措施四、汇率制度四、汇率制度（二）浮动汇率制度（二）浮动汇率制度 浮动汇率制度是指汇率水平由外汇市场上的供求关系浮动汇率制度是指汇率水平由外汇市场上的供求关系决定，政府对之不加干预的汇率制度。决定，政府对之不加干预的汇率制度。 自由浮动，又叫清洁浮动自由浮动，又叫清洁浮动 管理浮动，又叫肮脏浮动管理浮动，又叫肮脏浮动五、人民币汇率的决定五、人

42、民币汇率的决定（一）人民币汇率的发展历程（一）人民币汇率的发展历程（二）现行人民币汇率制度（二）现行人民币汇率制度 自自20052005年年7 7月月2121日起，我国开始实行以市场供求为基日起，我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。度。第三节第三节 国际储备国际储备一、国际储备的定义与作用一、国际储备的定义与作用国际储备与国际清偿力国际储备与国际清偿力 根据国际储备的定义和特征，国际储备根据国际储备的定义和特征，国际储备有广义和狭义之分有广义和狭义之分 狭义的国际储备狭义的国际储备通常所讲的国际储备通常所讲的

43、国际储备: :自有储备自有储备 广义的国际储备广义的国际储备国际清偿力国际清偿力: : 一国的自有储备一国的自有储备+ +借入储备借入储备国际储备的作用国际储备的作用 1 1、弥补国际收支赤字、弥补国际收支赤字 2 2、调节本国货币汇率、调节本国货币汇率 3 3、充当信用保证、充当信用保证二、国际储备的构成二、国际储备的构成（一）黄金储备（一）黄金储备（二）外汇储备（二）外汇储备（三）在（三）在IMF中的储备头寸中的储备头寸（四）特别提款权（四）特别提款权 三、国际储备的管理三、国际储备的管理（一）量的管理（一）量的管理 保持适度规模保持适度规模（二）质的管理（二）质的管理 使黄金储备、外汇储

44、备、在使黄金储备、外汇储备、在IMF的储备头寸和特别提的储备头寸和特别提款权四个部分的国际储备资产持有量之间，以及各部分款权四个部分的国际储备资产持有量之间，以及各部分的构成要素之间保持合适的数量构成比例。的构成要素之间保持合适的数量构成比例。 三性原则：安全性、流动性、营利性三性原则：安全性、流动性、营利性第四节第四节 国际资本流动国际资本流动一、国际资本流动的含义与发展一、国际资本流动的含义与发展（一）国际资本流动的含义与类型（一）国际资本流动的含义与类型1. 国际资本流动的含义国际资本流动的含义 国际资本流动：由于国际经济交易而引起的生产要国际资本流动：由于国际经济交易而引起的生产要素在国际间的转移和流动。素在国际间的转移和流动。 可采取货币形态或实物形态，是使用权的转让，不可采取货币形态或实物形态，是使用权的转让，不同于以所有权的转移为特征的商品交易。同于以所有权的转移为特征的商品交易。2. 国际资本流动的类型国际资本流动的类型（1 1）从资本的流动方向看：资本流出和资本流入。）从资本的流动方向看