罗宾斯管理学决策学习教案

1、会计学1罗宾斯管理学罗宾斯管理学 决策决策(juc)第一页，共48页。62第1页/共48页第二页，共48页。63nmakers第2页/共48页第三页，共48页。n？74第3页/共48页第四页，共48页。75第4页/共48页第五页，共48页。76第5页/共48页第六页，共48页。67第6页/共48页第七页，共48页。78第7页/共48页第八页，共48页。79第8页/共48页第九页，共48页。710P179Eight 出处(chch)：罗宾斯 管理学13e第9页/共48页第十页，共48页。711第10页/共48页第十一页，共48页。612第11页/共48页第十二页，共48页。613第12页/共48

2、页第十三页，共48页。614all alternatives and choosing the best.Ex: To find a job第13页/共48页第十四页，共48页。 Most decisions that managers make dont fit the assumptions of perfect rationality, so they satisfice715第14页/共48页第十五页，共48页。616第15页/共48页第十六页，共48页。617第16页/共48页第十七页，共48页。618Source: Based on L. A. Burke and M. K. Mi

3、ller, “Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making,” Academy of Management Executive, October 1999, pp. 9199.P184潜意识决策(juc)情感(qnggn)决策认知(rn zh)决策经验决策价值道德决策直觉第17页/共48页第十八页，共48页。719第18页/共48页第十九页，共48页。720第19页/共48页第二十页，共48页。621available and complete.Example: a server in a restaurant spills a dri

4、nk on a customers coatProgrammed Decisions 程序化决策Definition: A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.Example: The manager offers tohave the coat cleaned at restaurants expense第20页/共48页第二十一页，共48页。622or employee can or cannot do.第21页/共48页第二十二页，共48页。623第22页/共48页第二十三页，共48页。624Defi

5、nition: A unique and nonrecurring decision that requires a custom-made solution 唯一的和不可(bk)重复的决策。Decisions that generate unique responses.第23页/共48页第二十四页，共48页。725P187第24页/共48页第二十五页，共48页。726nCertainty （确定性）（确定性）Definition: A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome

6、 of every alternative choice is known. Example: where to deposit moneynRisk （风险性）（风险性）Definition:A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives. Example: next pageP187第25页/共48页第二十六页，共48页。627nUncerta

7、inty （不确定性）（不确定性）Definition: A situation in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probability estimates availablenLimited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition.第26页/共48页第

8、二十七页，共48页。628nAn Example of Decision-Making in an Uncertainty ConditionnMaximax: the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoffnMaximin: the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoffnMinimax: the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.第27页/共48页第二十八页，共48页。629Exampl

9、e: Which Strategy Will U Choose?Suppose you are a sales manager of VISAP189罗宾斯 管理学第28页/共48页第二十九页，共48页。630Maxmax choiceMaxmin choiceP189第29页/共48页第三十页，共48页。631Minimax choiceP19024-13=24-9=24-24=24-18=21-14=21-15=21-21=21-14=28-11=28-18=28-15=28-28=第30页/共48页第三十一页，共48页。632nchoice to minimize maximum reg

10、ret. (Think about minimizing the Possible regret)第31页/共48页第三十二页，共48页。633n恰到好处式第32页/共48页第三十三页，共48页。634Linear thinking styleNonlinear thinking styleA decision style characterized by a persons preference for using external data and facts and processing this information through rational, logical thinkin

11、gA decision style characterized by a persons preference for internal sources of information and processing this information with internal insights, feelings, and hunches直觉(zhju).第33页/共48页第三十四页，共48页。635P191第34页/共48页第三十五页，共48页。636to第35页/共48页第三十六页，共48页。6375）Confirmation Bias 证实偏见Seeking out information

12、 that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.第36页/共48页第三十七页，共48页。638(pinjin)Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.9）Randomness Bias 随机性偏见(pinjin)Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.第37页/共48页第三十八页，共48页。639Mistakenly believing that an e

13、vent could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (after-the-fact).第38页/共48页第三十九页，共48页。n1. Being aware of them and then not using themn2. Managers also should pay attention to “how” they make decisions and try to identify the heuristics they typically use and critically evaluate how appropriate those are.n3. Helps from people around to identify weaknesses in their decision-making style, and try to improve them第39页/共48页第四十页，共48页。P192Linear thinking styleNonlinear thinking style Immediate time taken decision making styleAutocratic（个人(grn)）-Participative（集体） decision m