汽车产业发展趋势

1、中国汽车产业开展趋势一、<全球角度汽车产业全球化地趋势及汽车需求增长地国际格局 汽车产业地全球化集中表达在特征上：一是汽车产业链,包括投资、生产、采购、销售及售后效劳、研发等主要环节地日益全球性配置.例如,过去跨国公司在本国建立、保持研发机构,对于目标国市场采取复制产品地方式进行投资,而现在那么采取将各个功能活动和能力分配给全球市场地方式.由此导致了新地专业化分工协作模式地出现,特别是整车装配与零部件企业之间呈现别离趋势,零部件地跨国公司越来越多,零部件企业与整车装配企业之间以合同为纽带地网络型组织结构日趋明显.整车制造企业零部件地全球采购以及零部件工业地国际化,模糊了汽车产品地“国家特

2、征,使其成为了典型地全球化产品.二是巨型汽车企业之间地大规模重组,形成了“6+3地格局,9大汽车集团地产量已占世界汽车产量80以上.汽车企业在全球地大规模重组实质性地改变了传统地资源配置方式、产业竞争模式和产业组织结构,并使各国特别是开展中国家以往地汽车产业开展战略和相关政策面临严峻挑战.b5E2RGbCAP资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途从汽车产销量地地理分布看,欧美兴旺国家,普遍出现了严重地市场疲软,而开展中国家,特别是亚洲国家地形势看好.在亚洲,韩国、泰国和中国等以其良好地成长性和巨大地潜力,继续成为世界汽车市场地亮点.据预测,从2002年到2021年,全球汽车产量将增加1100万辆,亚太

3、地区将新增7百万辆以上,占到65,而其中将有一半来自中国.p1EanqFDPw二、近年来中国汽车产业规模和市场结构变化 中国汽车工业经过40多年地开展,已经成为国民经济地重要产业.随着经济开展水平地不断提高和轿车开始进入家庭,中国已经成为世界上增长最为迅速地市场,对全球汽车产业产生地巨大影响力.2002年全年累计生产汽车325辆,比2001年同期增长3849,销售汽车3248万辆,比2001年同期增涨371,完成工业增加值1515亿元,同比增长60.94.汽车消费成为拉动2002年经济增长地主要力量.DXDiTa9E3d具有法人地位地汽车生产厂有120余家.2002年一汽、东风、上汽等3大汽车

4、集团生产集中度为57,比2001年提高了8个百分点；中国轿车由于企业进入和竞争剧烈,销量前3位地上海群众、一汽群众和上海通用占总销量地534,比2001年前3名地市场份额下降了68个百分点；其他各类汽车地生产集中度总体来讲较之2001年也有一定程度地下降.就单个企业规模而言,中国汽车工业地前4名一汽、东风、上汽、长安等4大集团汽车生产能力在30万-60万辆之间,规模经济效益开始显现.尽管如此,与世界级地汽车生产企业相比拟,中国汽车工业企业地规模仍然偏小.RTCrpUDGiT市场剧烈竞争带来地直接影响,一是促使汽车价格持续下降,最终到达合理价位；二是竞争领域不断扩展,不仅包括产品价格、质量、性能

5、,而且涉及市场营销、售后效劳、市场应变能力等各个方面；三是技术进步、产品研发将成为竞争焦点.通过充分而有效地竞争推进企业优胜劣汰,势不可挡,并将成为推动整个产业健康开展地主导力量.5PCzVD7HxA三、中国汽车工业市场空间、投资时机与盈利前景预测 未来时期随着影响中国汽车需求市场地价格、居民收入和消费结构、汽车信贷、消费环境地改善,特别是跨国公司主导下地汽车合资企业不断在全球同步推出适应市场需求地新产品,将对未来市场起到巨大地推动作用.预计今后10年15年中国将成长成为全球最大汽车市场,年销量到达1700万辆,汽车保有量超过1亿辆.jLBHrnAILg近年来,跨国公司加快了进军中国市场地步伐

6、,推动了国内汽车业新一轮地兼并重组热潮.预计今后跨国公司在中国地角逐将更加剧烈,国内几大汽车集团依托跨国公司迅速扩张,将进一步加速各类整车和零部件生产企业,特别是中小企业地兼并重组,市场格局剧烈变化,投资并购时机将不断涌现.xHAQX74J0X目前,我国汽车行业地整体利润率高于国际水平,随着产品价格地下降,这极可能降低行业利润率,但在价格下降地同时,本钱、费用也有较大下降空间,利润总额等总量指标可能保持,甚至有可能提高.国家进一步降低一些税费,将为行业内大局部企业提供降价空间,如果产销规模能随降价得到有效扩大,规模效应将发挥出来,会使行业效益保持在较好水平.同时,零部件进口关税地下降,将使一些

7、厂家进口本钱有所下降,对采用进口部件较多地中高档产品影响更加明显.我国汽车行业中地轿车工业开展最为迅速,不仅产量地增长高于整个汽车行业产品产量地增长,技术进步地步伐也大大加快.从全行业来看,轿车、汽车零部件及配件企业地盈利能力处于行业领先水平,具有更高地投资回报率.LDAYtRyKfE四、中国汽车产业地开展趋势和产业政策取向 1中国汽车产业地开展趋势 (1>预计今后10到15年中国将成为世界最大地汽车消费国.国际经验说明,人均收入水平与汽车普及率存在显著地相关关系.中国2002年地人均GDP是7972元,按官方汇率计算折合910多美元,而按世界银行测算地购置力平价方法那么接近4000美元

8、.在一些兴旺城市、东南沿海相当多地地区,人均GDP按官方汇率计算也到达四五千美元,呈现明显地即将进入汽车社会地特征.预计中国将在未来10年-15年成长成为年销量到达1700万辆地全球最大汽车市场.Zzz6ZB2Ltk (2>汽车地生产和消费将在未来相当长时期成为拉动中国经济增长地重要力量.汽车产业是涉及范围最广和涉及效果最大地产业.对钢铁、有色金属、橡胶、塑料、玻璃、涂料等原材料工业,铸、锻、热、焊、冲压、机加工、油漆、电镀、实验、检测等设备制造业,机械、电子、电器、化工、建材、轻工、纺织等配套产品和零部件,公路建设、能源工业、交通运输业和效劳业等,都会产生巨大需求,从而推动这些产业地开

9、展.预计今后10年每年GDP增量,有17至16由汽车产业提供.dvzfvkwMI1 (3>中国有望成为世界汽车地制造中心.中国已初步形成相对齐全地汽车工业生产体系.这是中国汽车产业新开展地起点.此外,中国开展汽车产业还有如下优势：一是大国地市场优势；二是劳动力本钱优势；三是具有较强地制造业配套能力.预计在今后10到15年,中国有望成为世界重要地汽车制造基地之一.rqyn14ZNXI2中国今后开展汽车产业地政策取向 (1>创造积极而充分地、有利于提高汽车产业国际竞争力地国内竞争环境.应鼓励各种类型企业特别是民营企业地进入,积极吸引外商直接投资特别是跨国公司直接投资,给予不同性质地企业

10、以平等地市场竞争时机,通过优胜劣汰地市场竞争过程,形成强有力地市场竞争结构,带动我国汽车产业和企业国际竞争力地根本提高.EmxvxOtOco (2>改制、重组是新时期我国汽车产业组织地根本政策取向.在开放、竞争地根底上,推动中国汽车企业地改制与重组.在改制过程中,要采取多种方式解决普遍存在地企业办社会、人员过多、债务负担重、社会保障体系不健全等历史遗留问题,推进企业产权地多元化,建立有效地公司治理机制.企业重组可以在以下方面重点推进：一是整合汽车资源,以增量盘活存量,提高汽车工业资产利用率；二是进一步加强与汽车跨国公司地多方面合作；三是推动国有企业与非国有企业之间地合作；四是对不同类型地

11、汽车产品采取不同地重组战略；五是在强调放松进入限制地同时,要大力排除退出障碍；六是积极利用资本市场推动产业重组.SixE2yXPq5 (3>有所为、有所不为.在开放中逐步融入全球汽车制造分工体系.改变汽车产业链配置主要依赖国内市场和国内资源地思路,分阶段地逐步融入汽车产业地全球采购、制造、销售、研发体系,并逐步向高段领域挺进.在整车上有进有出,集中力量开展具有市场和资源优势地局部产品；要充分利用中国市场地多层次性以生产中低级别地轿车作为未来时期汽车产业地战略重点,逐步实现规模优势和本钱优势,在满足国内市场地同时占领周边开展中国家；同时要利用现有地劳动力优势,扶植国内有条件地零部件厂商要尽

12、快向全球供给商地角色转变.6ewMyirQFLChina's auto industry development trend A, automobile industry globalization trend and automobile demand growth international pattern kavU42VRUsAuto industry globalization embodied in characteristics: one is the auto industry chain, including investment, production, procur

13、ement, sales and after-sales service, research and development and other main link increasingly global configuration. For example, the multinational companies in their establishment, keep r&d institution, to the target market take copy product approach to investing, and now are taking will each

14、functional activities and ability to global market distribution way. This has led to new specialization, especially the emergence of cooperative mode between enterprises with parts of vehicle assembly, parts of separation trend appears more and more multinational enterprise and vehicle assembly comp

15、onents in the contract as a link between enterprises of network organizational structure has become increasingly evident. The vehicle manufacturing enterprise parts of the global sourcing and the internationalization of spare parts industry, which blurs automotive products "national characteris

16、tics," has to typical globalization products. Two giant car between enterprise's large-scale restructuring, and formed a "6 + 3" pattern, 9 automobile group automobile production of world output has more than 80%. Car companies in the world of large-scale restructuring substantial

17、ly changed the traditional resource allocation methods, industrial competitive mode and industrial organization structure, and allows countries, especially developing countries before the auto industry development strategy and relevant policy is facing serious challenges. y6v3ALoS89文档来自于网络搜索The geog

18、raphical distribution of car output from view, euramerican developed country, generally there was a serious weakness in the market and developing countries, especially the situation in Asia countries. In Asia, South Korea, Thailand and China with its good growth and the huge potential, continue to b

19、e the highlight of the world automobile market. According to the forecast, from 2002 to 2021, global auto output will increase 11 million vehicles, the region will add more than 7 million cars, or 65 percent, and which will have half from China. M2ub6vSTnP文档收集自网络，仅用于个人学习Second, in recent years China

20、's automobile industry scale and market structure changes 0YujCfmUCwChina's auto industry after 40 years of development, has become an important industry of the national economy. With the development of economic levels rising and cars began to move into homes, China has become the world'

21、s most rapidly growing market, global car industry produce to the great influence. Annual accumulative total production car in 2002 than in 2001 vehicles, 325 38.49% growth from selling auto 324.8 million vehicles, than the same period in 2001, pool 37.1%, complete industrial added value, year-on-ye

22、ar growth of his pupils about 1515 billion yuan 60.94%. Automobile consumption has become pull 2002 the main force of economic growth. eUts8ZQVRd个人收集整理 勿做商业用途The legal person status of more than 120 auto manufacturers. In 2002, faw, dongfeng, saic wait for three major automotive group (57%> produ

23、ction concentration than in 2001, up 8 percentage points。 Chinese car because enterprise enters and competition is intense, sales of the top 3 places in Shanghai Volkswagen, faw Volkswagen and Shanghai gm of total sales than 2001 years ago single-month three market share fell 6.8 percentage points。

24、Other kinds of car general production concentration than 2001 also have certain degree of decline. Just a single enterprise scale, China's automotive industry's top four faw, dongfeng, saic, changan automobile production on four big group in 30 million - ability between 60 million vehicles,

25、scale economic benefit began to appear. Nonetheless, the automobile production enterprise with world-class compared, China's automotive industry enterprise's remained small. sQsAEJkW5T文档收集自网络，仅用于个人学习Fierce market competition, a direct result of the price of cars is to make continued to decli

26、ne, and finally achieve reasonable price。 2 it is competitive field, including not only expanded product price, quality, performance, but also related to marketing, after-sale service, market strain capacity, etc。 Three is technological progress and product research and development will be the focus

27、 of competition. Through the full and effective competition of enterprises, unstoppable, and generally will be pushing the healthy growth of the industry's leading power. GMsIasNXkA个人收集整理 勿做商业用途Third, China's automotive industry market space, investment opportunities and profit outlook TIrRG

28、chYzgFuture period with the influence of Chinese auto demand market price and income and consumption structure, auto loan, the improvement in consumption environment, especially transnational company leading the car under joint venture unceasingly in the global synchronous launch of new products to

29、meet market demand for future market, will greatly push forward. The following 10 years - 15 years China will become the world's largest car market, the annual sales of $17 million vehicles, more than 1 million cars auto possession. 7EqZcWLZNX个人收集整理 勿做商业用途In recent years, multinational companies

30、 to speed up the pace of the foray into China market, promote the domestic auto industry a new round of m&a boom. Multinational companies in China in the future is expected to take place more intense, the domestic several big automotive group relying on multinational company is rapid and outspre

31、ad, will further accelerate all kinds of vehicle and parts production enterprises, especially smes, market structure of m&a drastic change, investment opportunities will emerge. Merger lzq7IGf02E文档来自于网络搜索At present, China's auto industry's overall profitability higher than international

32、level, as the price of a product, which is likely to reduce down in price, but industry profit rate dropping, costs, expenses also have larger space, total profit dropped gross index such as likely to maintain, there might even improve. Countries further reduce some taxes, will provide for the major

33、ity of enterprises within the industry production and price space, if price is effectively with size can expand, scale effect will play out, can make the industry maintain a good level of efficiency. Meanwhile, parts of the import tariffs dropped, will make some manufacturers to import costs decline

34、d, imported parts more upscale product effect more apparent. The car industry in China's automobile industry most rapid development, not only output growth above the whole car industry product output growth, technology progress also greatly accelerated. Judging from the industry, cars, auto part

35、s and accessories enterprise profitability in industry leading level, and has a higher return on investment. zvpgeqJ1hk个人收集整理 勿做商业用途Fourth, the development trend of China's auto industry and the industrial policy orientation NrpoJac3v11. The development trend of China's automobile industry 1

36、nowfTG4KI(1> is expected in the next 10 to 15 years, China will become the world's largest car shoppers. International experience shows that per capita income level and automobile penetration rate significantly correlated. China's per capita GDP in 2002, according to official 7972 yuan is

37、 the exchange rates more than $910 converted according to the world bank, and the PPP methods measuring is close to $4,000. In some developed city, southeast coastal quite a number of areas, according to the official exchange rate per capita GDP also reached four or five thousand dollars, calculated

38、 the obvious characteristics of going into the car society. Expect China will in the next 10 years - 15 years in annual sales growth to 17m become the world's largest car market bus. fjnFLDa5Zo资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途(2> of automobile production and consumption in the future will be pulled very long p

39、eriod of China's economic growth important strength. The car industry is the most widely affected the scope of the biggest industry and spread effect. For steel, nonferrous metal, rubber, plastic, glass, coating and other raw materials industry, casting, forging, hot, welding, stamping, machinin

40、g, paint, electroplating, test and inspection equipment manufacturing industry, machinery, electronics, electrical appliances, chemical industry, building materials, light industry, textile and other supporting products and components, highway construction, energy industry, transportation industry a

41、nd service industry and so on, can produce huge demand, so as to promote the development of the industry. Each year are expected to the next 10 years, have 1 / GDP increment by seven to 1/6 provide auto industry. tfnNhnE6e5资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途(3> China is expected to become the world automobile manufa

42、cturing center. China has initially formed relatively complete automobile industrial production system. This is the new development of China's automobile industry begins. In addition, the development of the car industry in China and the following advantages: one is the power market advantages。 2

43、 it is labor cost advantage。 Three is strong manufacturing supporting ability. Expected over the next 10 to 15 years, China is expected to become the world's important auto manufacturing one of base. HbmVN777sL文档来自于网络搜索2. The future development of China automobile industry policy orientation V7l

44、4jRB8Hs(1> create positive and full, to improve the international competitiveness of the automotive industry domestic competition environment. Should encourage various type enterprise especially private enterprise's into, and actively attract foreign direct investment, especially transnationa

45、l corporations, direct investment, given the different natures of the enterprise with equal opportunity, through market competition market competition of the survival of the fittest, forming process the powerful market competition structure, leading enterprises and auto industry in our country the f

46、undamental improve the international competitiveness. 83lcPA59W9文档来自于网络搜索(2> restructuring, reorganization is a new period of China's automobile industry organization basic policy orientation. In the open, competitive, and on the basis of Chinese auto enterprise restructuring push with restru

47、cturing. In the restructuring, to adopt various ways to solve widespread enterprise do social, personnel overmuch, debt burden, social security system and the imperfect problems left over by history, promote enterprise property of diversification, the establishment of effective corporate governance mechanism. Corporate restructuring can focus on in the following respects: one is th