信息时代的管理信息系统-Chap004

1、信息时代的管理信息系统-Chap004信息时代的管理信息系统-Chap004STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOMESCompare and contrast decision support systems and geographic information systems.Define expert systems and describe the types of problem to which they are applicable.Define neural networks and fuzzy logic and the use of these AI tools.4-

2、3STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOMESDefine genetic algorithms and list the concepts on which they are based and the types of problems they solve.Describe the four types of agent-based technologies.4-4AN NFL TEAM NEEDS MORE THAN ATHLETIC ABILITYThe Patriots football team is a very successful oneThe team uses a

3、 decision support system to analyze the oppositions gameThe software breaks down the game day video into plays and player actionsWith this information the Patriots can better formulate their strategy4-5AN NFL TEAM NEEDS MORE THAN ATHLETIC ABILITYDSS with predictive analytics used to gain the advanta

4、ge in other sports? Choose a sport and explain how that might work.Would allowing coaches to have laptops on the field change the game appreciably? What other aspect of football could be improved by decision support systems?4-6INTRODUCTIONPhases of decision makingIntelligence find or recognize a pro

5、blem, need, or opportunityDesign consider possible ways of solving the problemChoice weigh the merits of each solution1.Implementation carry out the solution4-7Four Phases of Decision Making4-8Types of Decisions You FaceStructured decision processing a certain information in a specified way so that

6、you will always get the right answerNonstructured decision one for which there may be several “right” answers, without a sure way to get the right answerRecurring decision happens repeatedlyNonrecurring (ad hoc) decision one you make infrequently4-9Types of Decisions You Face4-10CHAPTER ORGANIZATION

7、Decision Support SystemsLearning outcome #1Geographic Information SystemsLearning outcome #1Expert SystemsLearning outcome #2Neural Networks and Fuzzy LogicLearning outcome #34-11CHAPTER ORGANIZATIONGenetic AlgorithmsLearning outcome #4Intelligent AgentsLearning outcome #54-12DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM

8、SDecision support system (DSS) a highly flexible and interactive system that is designed to support decision making when the problem is not structured Decision support systems help you analyze, but you must know how to solve the problem, and how to use the results of the analysis4-13Alliance between

9、 You and a DSS4-14Components of a DSSModel management component consists of both the DSS models and the model management systemData management component stores and maintains the information that you want your DSS to useUser interface management component allows you to communicate with the DSS 4-15Co

10、mponents of a DSS4-16Predictive AnalyticsAnalytics (predictive analytics) highly computational process of measuring and predicting customer behavior/attitudesUses combination of statistics, probability, ops management methods, AI tools, data mining, and predictive modelingTypesText natural language

11、analysisContent audio, video, graphicalWeb Web traffic analysis4-17GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMSGeographic information system (GIS) DSS designed specifically to analyze spatial informationSpatial information is any information in map formBusinesses use GIS software to analyze information, generate

12、business intelligence, and make decisions4-18Zillow GIS Software for Denver4-19ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEDSSs and GISs support decision making; you are still completely in chargeArtificial intelligence, the science of making machines imitate human thinking and behavior, can replace human decision makin

13、g in some instancesExpert systemsNeural networks (and fuzzy logic)Genetic algorithmsIntelligent agents (or agent-based technologies)4-20EXPERT SYSTEMSExpert (knowledge-based) system an artificial intelligence system that applies reasoning capabilities to reach a conclusionUsed for Diagnostic problem

14、s (whats wrong?)Prescriptive problems (what to do?)4-21Traffic Light Expert System4-22What Expert Systems Can and Cant DoAn expert system canReduce errorsImprove customer serviceReduce costAn expert system cantUse common senseAutomate all processes 4-23NEURAL NETWORKS AND FUZZY LOGICNeural network (

15、artificial neural network or ANN) an artificial intelligence system that is capable of finding and differentiating patterns 4-24Neural Networks CanLearn and adjust to new circumstances on their ownTake part in massive parallel processingFunction without complete informationCope with huge volumes of

16、informationAnalyze nonlinear relationships 4-25Fuzzy LogicFuzzy logic a mathematical method of handling imprecise or subjective informationUsed to make ambiguous information such as “short” usable in computer systemsApplicationsGoogles search engineWashing machinesAntilock breaks 4-26GENETIC ALGORIT

17、HMSGenetic algorithm an artificial intelligence system that mimics the evolutionary, survival-of-the-fittest process to generate increasingly better solutions to a problem 4-27Evolutionary Principles of Genetic AlgorithmsSelection or survival of the fittest or giving preference to better outcomesCro

18、ssover combining portions of good outcomes to create even better outcomesMutation randomly trying combinations and evaluating the success of each 4-28Genetic Algorithms CanTake thousands or even millions of possible solutions and combine and recombine them until it finds the optimal solution Work in

19、 environments where no model of how to find the right solution exists4-29INTELLIGENT AGENTSIntelligent agent software that assists you, or acts on your behalf, in performing repetitive computer-related tasksTypesInformation agentsMonitoring-and-surveillance or predictive agentsData-mining agents Use

20、r or personal agents 4-30Information AgentsInformation Agents intelligent agents that search for information of some kind and bring it backEx: Buyer agent or shopping bot an intelligent agent on a Web site that helps you, the customer, find products and services you want 4-31Monitoring-and-Surveilla

21、nce AgentsMonitoring-and-surveillance (predictive) agents intelligent agents that constantly observe and report on some entity of interest, a network, or manufacturing equipment, for exle4-32Data-Mining AgentsData-mining agent operates in a data warehouse discovering information4-33User AgentsUser o

22、r personal agent intelligent agent that takes action on your behalfExles:Prioritize e-mailAct as gaming partnerAssemble customized news reportsFill out forms for you “Discuss” topics with you 4-34MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS AND AGENT-BASED MODELINGBiomimicry learning from ecosystems and adapting their characteristics to human and organizational situationsUsed toLearn how people-based systems beh