公司估值模型

1、一般情景预测公司名称华星化工代码002018分析日期2006/04/18流通 A股2,000.00流通 B股总股本6,500.00A股股价7.17B 股股价Word 模板指标输出2004A2005A2006E2007E主营收入（万元）25,110.0035,524.0048,675.9367,905.18主营收入增长率24.39%41.47%37.02%39.50%EBITDA （万元）4,027.004,577.008,108.4613,348.07EBITDA 增长率15.95%13.66%77.16%64.62%净利润（万元）2,147.002,371.003,522.906,606.9

2、3净利润增长率0.56%10.43%48.58%87.54%ROE8.28%8.68%11.67%18.59%EPS（元）0.3300.3650.5421.016P/E21.7119.6613.237.05P/B1.801.711.541.31EV/EBITDA9.1711.036.943.88估值结果汇总估值方法估值结果估值 区 间FCFF20.6417.0823.62FCFE16.3814.9019.09DDM2.862.633.29APV17.9914.9020.13AE10.109.6510.94EVA16.3314.2118.10EVAAEAPVDDMFCFEFCFF0.005.00

3、10.0015.0020.0025.002003200420052006EEBIT3,473.003,448.003,732.006,051.67EBITDA3,473.004,027.004,577.008,108.46所得税率32.01%33.84%31.63%32.73%NOPLAT2,361.422,281.312,551.494,070.69IC9,162.0016,252.0031,033.0039,678.80Ve32,265.0046,605.0046,605.0046,605.00Vd2,700.004,670.0011,771.0020,489.52WACC11.55%11

4、.43%10.50%9.63%EV32,649.0036,937.0050,467.0056,257.40业绩表现2003200420052006E收入增长率24.39%41.47%37.02%净利润增长率0.56%10.43%48.58%EBITDA 增长率15.95%13.66%77.16%EBIT 增长率-0.72%8.24%62.16%主营业务利润率31.41%25.80%22.22%24.26%EBITDA Margin (%)11.25%5.28%26.85%ROE24.32%8.28%8.68%11.67%ROIC25.77%14.04%8.22%10.26%ROIC WACC1

5、4.22%2.60%-2.28%0.63%价值比率2003200420052006EP / E15.1121.7119.6613.23EV/ 收入1.621.471.421.16EV / EBITDA9.409.1711.036.94EV / EBIT9.4010.7113.529.30EV / NOPLAT13.8316.1919.7813.82EV/IC3.562.271.631.42P / B3.681.801.711.54Dividend Yield (%)1.16%0.48%1.39%1.43%每股指标2003200420052006E报表 EPS0.470.330.360.54经常

6、性 EPS每股红利0.080.030.100.10每股经营现金流1.26每股净资产1.953.994.204.64流动性2003200420052006E净负债 / 权益0.04-0.370.140.32总负债 / 总资产49.22%35.22%51.02%60.58%流动比率1.102.271.100.91速动比率0.571.490.600.48输出到 Word 模板中的三张表（输出 2004-2008年）利润表（万元）200420052006E增长率 %主营业务收入25,110.0035,524.0048,675.9337.02%主营业务利润6,468.007,873.0011,785.6

7、149.70%其他业务利润55.00-49.0050.00N/A营业费用1,929.002,596.003,648.2440.53%管理费用1,146.001,496.002,135.6942.76%财务费用197.00221.00784.38254.92%营业利润3,251.003,511.005,267.2950.02%投资收益0.000.000.00N/A利润总额3,245.003,468.005,237.2951.02%净利润2,147.002,371.003,522.9048.58%NOPLAT2,281.312,551.494,070.6959.54%资产负债表（万元）200420

8、052206E增长率 %流动资产26,134.0025,839.0035,559.5837.62%货币资金14,338.007,909.0010,837.1237.02%短期投资0.000.000.00N/A应收帐款1,730.00其他应收款233.00存货8,949.00长期投资0.00固定资产12,883.00无形资产996.00总资产40,013.00无息负债9,030.00有息负债4,670.00少数股东权益0.00股东权益25,920.00净营运资本14,604.00投入资本 IC16,252.00现金流量表（万元）2004净利润2,147.00折旧摊销579.00净营运资金增加13

9、,925.00经营活动产生现金流1,372.00投资活动产生现金流-3,986.00融资活动产生现金流4,458.00现金净增（减）1,844.00指标说明：EV =股权价值 +债权价值现金EBITDA EBIT 折旧 摊销EBIT 营业利润财务费用4,047.004,449.469.94%413.00565.9037.02%11,801.0016,726.4541.74%0.00151.00N/A29,587.0040,051.2135.37%210.00189.00-10.00%55,787.0076,559.7837.24%15,644.0023,892.8652.73%11,771.0

10、020,489.5274.07%0.000.00N/A27,322.0030,177.4110.45%2,424.00-3,322.80N/A31,033.0039,678.8027.86%20052006E增长率 %2,371.003,522.9048.58%845.002,056.79143.41%-12,180.00-5,746.80N/A4,894.008,161.4766.76%-1,156.00-12,500.00N/A-4,756.007,266.65N/A-1,018.002,928.12N/ANOPLAT EBIT ×（ 1所得税率）EBIT 所得税（只考虑核心业务

11、，扣除非经常性损益）IC （ invested capital ） 股东权益 长期借款 短期借款 应付债券 少数股东权益现金短期投资长期投资 ROIC NOPLAT / IC × 100OPFCF EBITDA 税收 净资本性支出营运资本的增加WACC (Ke ×Ve) （ Kd× Vd） / (Ve Vd)Kd 债务成本 平均债务利率（1税率）（短期借款×短期借款利率长期借款×长期借款利率长期应付债券×长期（1所得税率）Ve 股本价值 股价×总股本（H股、 B 股按各自股价×汇率转换为人民币计算，非流通股按A 股

12、计算）Vd 债务价值短期借款长期借款应付债券Ke Rf + (Rm Rf)营运资本 流动资产 流动负债公司自由现金流FCFF EBIT ×（1-所得税率）折旧资本支出非现金性流动资本变化股权资本自由现金流FCFE 税前利润 ×（1- 所得税率）折旧资本支出非现金性流动资本变化新增债务债务偿还0.00流通 H股0.000.00H股股价0.002008E74,220.529.30%17,156.3028.53%9,175.1638.87%21.35%1.4125.081.082.45敏感度分析区间贴现率 ±1%，长期增长率 ±1%6.54贴现率 ±

13、1%，长期增长率 ±1%4.19贴现率 ±1%，长期增长率 ±1%0.66贴现率 ±1%，长期增长率 ±1%5.23贴现率 ±1%，长期增长率 ±1%1.29贴现率 ±1%，长期增长率 ±1%3.89EVAAEAPVDDMFCFEFCFF0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.002007E2008E10,826.0114,371.6013,348.0717,156.3032.73%32.73%7,282.189,667.1540,557.7638,271.8646,605.0046,605.

14、0020,294.5411,977.949.65%10.48%51,781.2542,058.622007E2008E39.50%9.30%87.54%38.87%64.62%28.53%78.89%32.75%27.80%31.16%27.25%60.30%18.59%21.35%17.96%25.26%8.31%14.78%2007E2008E7.055.080.760.573.882.454.782.937.114.351.281.101.311.082.69%3.73%2007E2008E1.021.410.190.271.182.025.476.612007E2008E0.15-0.

15、1159.70%52.61%1.081.320.590.752007E增长率 %2008E增长率 %67,905.1839.50%74,220.529.30%18,844.8759.90%23,090.8822.53%50.000.00%100.00100.00%5,089.4739.50%5,562.809.30%2,979.3939.50%3,256.489.30%973.8624.16%701.41-27.98%9,852.1487.04%13,670.1938.75%0.00N/A0.00N/A9,822.1487.54%13,640.1938.87%6,606.9387.54%9,1

16、75.1638.87%7,282.1878.89%9,667.1532.75%2007E增长率 %2008E增长率 %48,826.2737.31%53,237.099.03%15,118.2939.50%16,524.329.30%0.00N/A0.00N/A6,996.6757.25%7,647.379.30%565.900.00%862.8852.48%22,243.7132.99%23,181.124.21%151.000.00%151.000.00%38,550.14-3.75%36,786.44-4.58%168.00-11.11%147.00-12.50%88,177.4115.17%90,676.532.83%30,350.3627.03%33,729.3511.13%20,294.54-0.95%11,977.94-40.98%0.00N/A0.00N/A35,532.5117.75%42,969.2420.93%3,681.37N/A13,029.80253.94%40,557.762.22%38,271.86-5.64%2007E增长率 %2008E增长率 %6,606.9387.54%9,175.1638.87%2,52