argument经典逻辑错误七宗罪

1、Argument1. 2. 3. 1. NO.29The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.Commuter use of the new subway train is exceeding thetransit companys projections. However, commuter use oftheshuttlebusesbelowthatthetransportprojectedpeopleto thesubwaytransitstationsisvolume.Ifthecompany

2、 expects commuters to ride the shuttle buses to the subway rather than drive there, it must either reduce the shuttle bus fares or increase the price of parking at thesubway stations.The argument depends on an unproven cause-and-effect relationship between the unexpectedly low shuttle bus usage and

3、shuttle-bus fares or station-parking fees. Thereason for the unexpectedly low shuttle-bus usage mighthave nothing to do witheithershuttle-busfaresorstation-parking fees. For instance, commuter awarenessof the shuttle-bus option might be growing more slowlythanipated.Forthatmatter,manycommutersmightb

4、eawareofridingthe busesdueouttoarecentshuttle-busaccident.Withoutrulingtheseandotheralternativeexplanations forthelowshuttle-bususage,the authorcannot reasonably conclude that adjusting shuttle faresor station-parking fees will have any effect on that usage.1. :The author unfairly assumes that it is

5、thatresulted in2. But we find no concrete evidence to substthe inevitable relationship between andate3. many other factors could also lead to the result4. In short, the author could not hastily concludethat is the only possible reason forbeforetaking above factors into.The following appear magazine.

6、Although the sales of Whirlwindbusinessgames havedeclined over the past two years, a recent survey of-game players suggests that this sales trend is aboutto be reversed. The survey asked-game playerswhat features they thought were most importn agame. According to the survey, players prefergames that

7、 provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers.Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people ten to twenty-five years old, the age-group most likely to playgames. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwindgames

8、are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.2. NO.11The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper. In the first four years that Montoya has servedasmayorofthecityofSanPerdito,thepopulationhasdecreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Twobusinesseshavedfo

9、reachnewbusinessthathasopened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four yearsbeforeMontoya,theunemploymentratedecreasedandSanthepopulationincreased.Clearly,theresidentsofPerdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out ofoffice and reelected Varro.The author assumes thattheMontoyaadministrati

10、oncaused the unemployment in San Perdito as well as itspopulationloss.The lineofreasoningisthatbecauseMontoyawaselectedbeforetheriseinunemploymentand the decline in population, the former event causedthelatter.Butthisisfallaciousreasoningunlessotherpossible causal explanations have been considered a

11、ndruled out.For example, perhaps a statewide or nationwide recessionisthecauseoftheseevents.Or perhapsthecurrenteconomic downturn is a larger picture of economic cyclesand trends, and has nothing to do with who happens to bemayor. YetanotherpossibilityisthatVarroenjoyedaperiodofeconomicstabilityandV

12、arrosownandadministration setthestagefortheunemploymentthedeclineinpopulationthecityisnowexperiencingunder Montoya.1. :The author assumes that is responsible for2. basing on the mere fact thatoccurred after3. however, the sequence of the two events in itselfdoes not sufficiently prove that the forme

13、r caused the latter one.4. many other factors could also lead to the result/.(the result) might have resulted from otherfactors, such as5. Without ruling out these possible scenarios, theauthor could not establish a causal relationship between andThe following is a letter to the editor of the Waymar

14、sh Times.Traffic here in Waymarsh is becoarl.Although just three years ago a state trafshowedthat the typical driving commuter took 20 minutes to getto work, the commute now takesr to 40 minutes,according to the survey just completed. Members of thetown council aly have suggested more road buildingt

15、o address the problem, but as well as being expensive, the new construction will surely disrupt some of ourresidential neighborhoods.It would be better to follow the example of the nearby city of Garville. Last year Garville implemented a policythat rewards people who share rides to work, giving the

16、mcoupons forgas. Pollution levels in Garville havedropped since the policy was implemented, and people from Garville tell me that commuting times have fallen considerably. There is no reason why a policy likeGarvilles shouldnt work equally well in Waymarsh.3. The following appeared in a memo from th

17、e mayor of the town of Hopewell.Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a newmunicipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean Views tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. Therefore, the best way to

18、 improve Hopewells economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotelsimilar to those in Ocean View.It is possible that the mayor has confused cause with effect respecting the recent developments in Ocean View. Perhaps Ocean Views construction of a new golf cou

19、rse and hotel was a response to previous increases in tourism and business development increases thathave simply continued during the most recent twoyears. Since the mayor has failed tofor thispossibility, the claim that Hopewell would boost itseconomy by also constructing a golf course and hotel is

20、 completely unwarranted.The mayor fails tofor other possible causes ofthe trends in Ocean View during the last two years. The increase in tourism might have been due to improving economic conditions nationwide, or to unusually pleasant weather in the region. The new businesses that have opened in Oc

21、ean View might have opened thereirrespective of the new golf course and hotel.And, the 30% increase in tax revenues might have been the result of an increase in tax rates, or the addition of a new type of municipal tax. Without ruling out these and other alternative explanations for the three recent

22、 trends in Ocean View, the mayor cannot reasonably infer based on those trends that Hopewells economy would benefitby following Ocean Views example.1. :In the process of reasoning, the author implies thatA is the reason for B.2. However, the author may confuse the cause andthe effect.3. The author f

23、ails to rule out the possibility that it is Bthat actually causes A / B results in A.4. Without adequately taking this possibility into, the assumption thatis untenable.39. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper:“Motorcycle X has been manufactured i

24、n the United States for more than 70 years. Although one foreign company has copied the motorcycle and is selling it for less, the company has failed to attract motorcycle X customerssome say because its product lacks the exceptionally loudnoiseby motorcycle X.But there must be some other explanatio

25、n. After all, foreign cars tend to be quieter than similar American- cars, but they sell at least as well. Also, televisionadvertisements for motorcycle X highlight its durability andsleek lines, not its noisiness, and the ads typically have voice-overs or rock music rather than engine-roar on the s

26、ound track.”Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calciumsubstances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore say that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis, a disease that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors and thatcauses

27、the bones to weaken significantly with age.But a long-term study of a large number of people found that those who consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study.Since bone fractures are symptomatic

28、of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk ofosteoporosis.The following appeared in a memorandum from a vice president of the Megamart department store chain. For the third year in a row, the average household inc

29、ome in our country has risen significantly. That prosperity means that families are likely to be spending more time and money on leisure activities. Megamart stores should therefore concentrate on enlarging and promoting its line of products typically used in leisure activities: athletic and outdoor

30、 equipment, televisions, gourmet cooking equipment, and luggage and travelaccessories.First, the author oversimplifies the consuwysfgrowing household income. If the average income of households has increased for the third year in a row, it does not directly indicate that people will spend more money

31、 on leisure. There are other possibilities, whichthe president ignores in his argument.For example, while some people might want to spend their increased income on leisure activities, some would prefer to spend it on luxuries. It is likely that they tend to live a more comfortable life than before a

32、nd they choose to buy the products that make their lives easier. Similarly, some people would like to spend the money on educating their children and some might be inclined to save the money for future use.Therefore, the authors assertion that people willincrease leisure activities expenditure is un

33、warranted to a larger extent.1. 2. 3. The following appeared as part of an annual reporstockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods:t to“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processi

34、ng, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its 25th birthday, we canexpect that our long experience will en

35、able us to minimizecosts and thusize profits.”It is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processing industry are applicable to the food processing industry. Differences between the two industries clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy less than valid. For exam

36、ple, problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation all affect the food industry but are virtually absent in the film-processing industry.Problems such as these might present insurmountableobstacles that prevent lowering food-processing costs in the future.The following appeared in a

37、 memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a newmunicipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean Views tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. Therefore, th

38、e best way to improve Hopewells economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotelsimilar to those in Ocean View.1. :In the argument, the author recommends A to carryout the same (policieions,solutions on) as B.2. But we may ask that whether A and B are similar

39、enough at every aspect and arecomparable.3. While it is true that A and B share some commongrounds on4. there are still some obvious differences between them.5. Many differences exist between A and B and thesedifferences may render the policies (or actions, solutions,etc.)not as effective for B.6. B

40、efoecides to copy Bs experiences, the authorshould take these differences intoand makecareful study on the comparability of the two (cities,companies, colleges, etc.)NO.38The following appeared in an article in a collegedepartmental newsletter:“Professor Taylor of Jones University is promoting amof

41、foreign language instruction in whichsreceive 10 weeks of intensive training, then go abroad tolive with families for 10 weeks. The superiority of them, Professor Taylor contends, is proved by the resultsof a study in which foreign language tests given tos at 25 other colleges show that first-year f

42、oreignlanguages at Jones speak more fluently after only10 to 20 weeks in the program than do nine out of 10 foreign language majors elsewhere at the time of theirgraduation.”The argument is based on the assumption thats from Professor Taylors program have learnedmore than foreign languagesttrunivers

43、ities. However, we are not given enough information about the study to be sure that thiscomparison is reliable. For example, the article doesnot tell us whether the foreign languages atJones were given the tests; it only reports that thetests in question were given tocolleges.s at 25 otherIf Jonessr

44、t tst, ts at the othersisxistsfor comparing them touniversities. In addition, the article does not indicatewhethers at all the universities, includingJones, were given the same tests. If not, then again nobasis exists for the comparison.1. :The author hastily implies that A is superior to B inbut th

45、e comparison between A and B is incomplete.2. The author only compares3. however, there are myriad of factors which, if differin these cases, would bring about totally different result for the comparison.4. To fully evaluate the of A and B, the authorshould provide more concrete evidence about (othe

46、r factors that would influence the result while ignored by the author in the argument.)5. Without any further consideration about thesefactors, the author could not convince us that (A is better than B in) merely based on an incomplete comparison.The following appeared in a memo from the vicepreside

47、nt of a company that builds shopthe country.malls aroundThe surface of a section of Route 101, paved just two years ago by Good Intentions Roadways, is now badly cracked with a number of dangerous potholes. In another part of the state, a section of Route 40, paved by Appian Roadways more than four

48、years ago, is still in goodcondition.In a demonstration of their continuing commitment to quality, Appian Roadways recently purchased state-of-the- art paving machinery and hired a new quality-control manager. Therefore, I recommend hiring AppianRoadways to construct the access roads for all our new

49、shopmalls. I predict that our Appian access roads willnot have to be repaired for at least four years.SampleThe author hastily implies that Appian is superior to Good Intentions in the road building but the comparison is incomplete. The author only compares the route condition between Route 101 and

50、Route 40. However, there are myriad of factors needed to be taken into consideration.For example, we are merely given the evidence that Route101 paved by Good Intentions is in deplorable shape.But how much traffic does that stretch of road get? What sort of traffic? If the road offers access to a ha

51、rd-rock mining venture, with dozens of heavily-loaded trucks per hour jolting down the blacktop. Likewise, what is the local climate? The expansion and contraction of the earth as itzes and thaws with the season may wreck pavement.Without any further consideration about these factors, the author cou

52、ld not convince us that Appian is better than Good Intentions merely based on the incomplete comparison.survey/statistics/study/ report/research/census/poll1. NO.31The following appeared in a newspaper story giving advice about investments:“As overall life expectancy continues to rise, thepopulation

53、 of our country is growing increasingly older. For example, more than 20 percent of the residents of one of our more populated regions are now at least 65 years old, and occupancy rates at resort hotels in that region declined significantly during the past six months. Because of these two related tr

54、ends, a prudent investor would be well advised to sell interest in hotels and invest in hospitalsand nursing homes instead.”The author provides no evidence to support the claim that the population as a whole is aging and that the hotel occupancy rate in general is declining. The example cited, whilesuggestive of these trends, is insufficient to warrant their tbecause there is no reason to believe that data drawn from thisunnamed region is representative of the entire count