最新商业地产投资分析

1、 EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe government-led recovery has been popularlylabeled Abenomics, due to Prime Minister Abes push forward with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP stimulus package. With real GDP growth estimated at 2.3%, the Japanese economy is showing signs that a recovery is underway, alongside imp

2、roving business confidence as shown in the latest quarterly Tankan Survey. T his has started to translate into positive movement in the J-REITs and real estate company stock indexes, which significantly outperform the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX. The signs are also evident in the retail markets w

3、ith increased sales for luxury goods, and the rising rents on Tokyos main streets.With J-REITs aggressive buying and anticipated rental growth, the domestic property funds and landlords are increasingly bullish. Overseas investors have increased their appetite, taking advantage of the steepdepreciat

4、ion of the Japanese Yen. However, there is a limited number of assets coming onto the market because sellers are taking a wait-and-see stance in the market, expecting a further rise in value. As such, the transaction volume could not exceed the average level of the past three years. However, gaps be

5、tween sellers and buyers are expected to narrow as buyers get more aggressive, backed by stronger confidence and actual effective rental growth.Q1 2013TOKYOINVESTMENT MARKETBEATA Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication MARKET SNAPSHOTQ1 2013A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication ECONOMI

6、C OVERVIEWThe Japanese economy in 2013 is forecast to see stable growth driven by the private sector, after posting 2.0% GDP growth in 2012. There have been a number of indicators to support the recovery including a robust surge in stock prices and upward forecast business plan corrections for a lar

7、ge number of corporate manufacturers in response to steep depreciation of the Japanese Yen. The government-led recovery has been popularly labeledAbenomics due to Prime Minister Abes push forward with the LDP stimulus package. These initiatives have encouraged the private sector to increase investme

8、nts in plants and equipment by means of the reduction of capital spending taxes announced in January. INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT & STOCK MARKETThe latest quarterly Tankan Surveyprevailing business confidence indicator, either of manufactures or non-manufactureshas improved steadily. Although manufac

9、tures still showed a negative reading due to the current recovery led by the finance sector reflecting bold monetary easing policy, some of them have started to expand by investing in domestic plants or increasing leased space, anticipating business growth for exporting companies benefited from the

10、steep depreciation of Japanese Yen. This also sustains a healthy growth of demand for property in the industrial sector. Regarding the lending environment, despite current compressions of yield for Japanese Government Bond (10 years, the yield is forecast to go up for years to come. Similarly, long-

11、term interest rates are thought to be increasing associated with the prospect of a 2% inflation target led by the government. Besides a robust surge in TOPIX, real estate company shares and J-REITs have significantly outperformed TOPIX.CAPITAL TRANSACTION MARKET & OUTLOOK Against the backdrop of

12、 the heightened performance of J-REITs, domestic property funds and some landlords are bullish, anticipating rental growth and have acquired assets while borrowing rate remains low. Likewise, the property market attracted overseas investors by taking advantage of the steep depreciation of Japanese Y

13、en, whereas the market could be seen premature to invest without actual increases in effective rent. Also, corporations other than those in the property industry sought properties, aiming at income gains.On the supply side, however, there is a limited number of assets coming onto the market because

14、sellers have adopted a wait-and-see approach as the market anticipates increases in value. Also J-REITs and other companies seeking income gains are currently buyers rather than sellers. As such transaction volume could not exceed the past three years average level despite surges in property indexes

15、. However, gaps between sellers and buyers are expected to narrow as buyers are more aggressive for acquisitions backed by stronger confidence with effective rental growth. STATS ON THE GOLOCAL CURRENCY(JPYUS$EQUIVALENTY-O-Y CHANGE INLOCAL CURRECNY OFFICEInvestment Volume 378.2billion 4.0 billion 20

16、.1% Price per square foot 96,063 1,016 21.8% RETAILInvestment Volume 94.6 billion 1.0 billion 179.7% Price per square foot 78,098 826 65.4% INDUSTRIALInvestment Volume 18.9billion 0.2 billion -86.1% Price per square foot 25,529 270 67.1% YIELD Q1 2013 Q-O-Q CHANGE Y-O-Y CHANGE Office 5.2% -0.1pp -0.

17、1pp Retail 6.0% +0.53pp +0.62pp Industrial 6.4% -0.17pp -0.43pp Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 94.55 Yen as at 23 March 2013Source: Real Capital Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield ResearchLocal GDP growth for 2013 is projected to rise above 2% as Abenomics continues OFFICE TRANSACTIONS OVERVIEW & OUTLOO

18、K Although the first quarter saw a tightened capital market wherethere were limited assets for sale versus an increased number of buyers, transaction volume retained the past three years average level. The most aggressive buyer was Nippon Building Fund from J-REITs who acquired two buildings owned b

19、y manufacturing giants, Panasonic and Sony. These transactions drove the average yield further down. Yields are forecast to compress a little, with an anticipated rental growth, given the continuation of a tightened capital market amidst an unlikely prospect for increased assets for sale. RETAIL TRA

20、NSACTIONS OVERVIEW & OUTLOOKQ1 saw transaction volumes increase Y-o-Y basis, it retained the past 3 years average level. The market was driven by J-REITs who selectively acquired retail premises on high streets. Although yield hiked to 6.0% this quarter affected by a higher yield of individual t

21、ransaction sample, the average of the rest of the yields was 5.3%. Yields are forecast to be compressed due to anticipated rise in values amid tightened capital market derived originally from fewer new construction completions in the market. Also a rise in values is justified by further rental growt

22、h forecast in the progressing recovery of overall consumer markets. INDUSTRIAL TRANSACTIONS OVERVIEW & OUTLOOK Although the first quarter saw the transaction volume slowed down on a year-on-year basis, it retained the past average level except for first quarter 2012. The market was driven by J-R

23、EITs playing a key role in compressing average yields. Yields are forecast to compress a little, amidst a tightened capital market on the back of stable rents and anticipated low levels of vacancy rate. Although new construction completions in the later half of this year may cause a rise in the vaca

24、ncy rate, the stability of rents would continue to be sustained by growing tenants demand, especially derived from the growth potential of online shopping. CONCLUSIONLed by the government along with the private sector, a rapid across-the-board the recovery is possible, with improved fundamentals as

25、seen in the consumer markets. Business confidence, which continues to be sustained by the stimulus package, is increasingly apparent as witnessed by the robust surge in stock prices. While J-REITs is currently seeing price corrections due partly to the yields having been highly compressed after they

26、 have experienced continual rises for the last several months, they are expected to drive the real estate markets and act as an alternative exit strategy to investors. Although the transaction volume could not exceed the past three years average level, partly because sellers are taking a wait-and-se

27、e stance in the market expecting a further rise in value, gaps between sellers and buyers are expected to narrow as buyers get more aggressive, backed by stronger confidence and actual effective rental growth.MAJOR TRANSACTIONSPROPERTY NAME PROPERTY TYPE DISTRICT / SUBMARKET PURCHASER AREA / GFASF C

28、ONSIDERATION / PURCHASE PRICE UNIT PRICEUS$/SF US$ MILLION YEN MILLIONSony City Osaki Office Shinagawa Ward/ Osaki Nippon Building Fund JV SMFL 1,335,182 1,205 113,933 903 Panasonic TokyoShiodome (B4-24FOffice Minato Ward/Shiodome Nippon Building Fund 492,712 548 51,813 1,112Yodobashi CameraMultimed

29、ia KichiojiRetail Musashino City/Kichioji United Urban Investment 408,310 302 28,554 740 Ikebukuro Square Retail Toshima/Higashi-ikebukuro Frontier REIT 95,410 221 20,896 2,320 GLP Tatsumi Industrial Koto Ward / Tatsumi GLP Investment Corporation 139,131 57 5,389 411 Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 94.55 Yen

30、 as at 23 March 2013Source: Real Capital Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield Research(和訳要旨日本政府主導回復、自民党安倍政権景気刺激策好感名付。日本経済今年GDP成長率2.3%見込、日銀短観改善併経済回復進行兆候示。J-REITs不動産株上昇東証TOPIX大幅上回。実際、兆候、高級品売上増加東京主要商業賃料上昇市場実体経済目見形現。J-REITs賃料上昇期待物件対積極的買姿勢、国内不動産不動産賃貸業者益強気。一方、海外投資家急激円安武器日本物件取得意欲高。、売主更価格上昇期待様子見、市場出物件数限。市況、今、

31、物件取引量過去3年間平均的水準上回。、実質的賃料上昇買主自信深、積極的、売主買主価格目線差縮。経済概観昨年GDP成長率2.0%引続、2013年日本経済民間部門牽引安定成長予想。株価上昇、急激円安進行受製造業中心業績見込上方修正企業相次、経済回復裏付指標事欠。政府主導回復、自民党景気刺激策安倍首相推進好感名付。景気刺激策、1月公表設備投資減税策含、民間部門設備投資増積極的支援。投資環境全般、株市場製造業、非製造業最新日銀短観着実改善見。現在回復、先大胆緩和金融牽引、製造業日銀短観。、急激円安恩恵輸出関連製造業成長期待、一部製造強化床借増事業拡大開始。伴、不動産市場需要相応増。一方、資金調達環境関

32、、昨今新発国債(10年圧縮、今後数年上昇基調予想。、長期金利、政府目標2%基本的連携、上昇考。不動産関連株価上昇、東証TOPIX力強上昇上回。売買市場今後J-REITs好調背景、国内不動産不動産賃貸業者賃料上昇見込、金利低物件取得、益強気。同様、海外投資家急激円安武器日本不動作市場魅力的見。一方、海外投資家一部、実質的賃料上昇確認、投資市場熟見向。、不動産業以外企業目的物件探動見。、物件供給、売主更価格上昇期待様子見姿勢、市場出物件数限。、目的J-REITs国内不動産、目下買主売主。市況、不動産指標上昇関物件取引量過去3年間平均的水準上回。言、実質的賃料上昇、買主自信深、積極的、売主買主価格目

33、線差縮期待。取引市場概観今後取引市場、限物件数対、買主増逼迫、取引量過去3年間平均的水準維持。最積極的買主J-REITs日本、Panasonic Sony自社取得。取引平均押下。売物件増加中、今後逼迫売買需給続、賃料上昇期待併、圧縮予想。取引市場概観今後今期取引量前年同期比増加、過去3年間平均的水準維持。面物件厳選取得J-REITs市場牽引。高取引事例、平均6.0%上昇、事例除平均5.3%。市場元来開発物件限、今後逼迫売買需給下、物件価格上昇伴圧縮予想。、消費市場全般回復進中、賃料上昇予測下、物件価格上昇合理的説明考。取引市場概観今後今期取引量前年同期比減少、好調昨年除過去平均的水準維持。J-

34、REITs取得事例平均押下市場牽引。安定賃料、低空室率水準背景、今後逼迫売買需給下、圧縮予想。今年後半供給空室率上昇思、通信販売市場成長潜在力由来需要伸支、賃料安定性継続思。結論民間連携政府主導、消費市場実体経済改善併、急速回復見始。株価上昇見、景気刺激策支形向上一層鮮明。J-REITs何月間価格上昇、圧縮、調整。、J-REITs不動産投資家出口戦略選択肢、今後市場牽引思。売主更価格上昇期待様子見姿勢、物件取引量過去3年間平均的水準上回至、実質的賃料上昇買主積極化、売主買主価格目線差縮期待。関問合以下照会。柳町啓介(e-mail: keisuke.yanagimachi<>東京理科

35、大学卒業後、建設企業大規模商業施設設計等開発手掛。不動産開発評価手法研究渡英、大学国際不動産学修士号取得。信託銀行証券化不動産実務経験後、不動産投資駆使日本市場、世界不動産市場調査分析。現在、務。早稲田大学国際不動産研究所招聘研究員、一級建築士。<>1917年創業、非上場企業世界最大総合不動産会社。全世界60国253拠点、15,000名以上従業員擁。不動産、総合的提供。詳細、以下参照。日本語Q1 2013 MARKET SNAPSHOT A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication INVESTMENT MARKETBEAT For

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