层次分析法---文献翻译

1、888大学毕业设计(论文)文献翻译题 目 层次分析法 院、系(部) 计算机科学与技术学院 专业及班级 计科0903班 姓 名 888 指 导 教 师 888 日 期 2013年3月 Analytic Hierarchy Process The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a structured technique for helping people deal with complex decisions. Rather than prescribing a "correct" decision, the AHP helps p

2、eople to determine one that suits their needs and wants. Based on mathematics and psychology, it was developed by Thomas L. Saaty in the 1970s and has been extensively studied and refined since then. The AHP provides a comprehensive and rational framework for structuring a problem, for representing

3、and quantifying its elements, for relating those elements to overall goals, and for evaluating alternative solutions. It is used throughout the world in a wide variety of decision situations, in fields such as government, business, industry, healthcare, and education.Several firms supply computer so

4、ftware to assist in using the process.Users of the AHP first decompose their decision problem into a hierarchy of more easily comprehended sub-problems, each of which can be analyzed independently. The elements of the hierarchy can relate to any aspect of the decision problemtangible or intangible,

5、carefully measured or roughly estimated, well- or poorly-understoodanything at all that applies to the decision at hand.Once the hierarchy is built, the decision makers systematically evaluate its various elements, comparing them to one another in pairs. In making the comparisons, the decision maker

6、s can use concrete data about the elements, or they can use their judgments about the elements' relative meaning and importance. It is the essence of the AHP that human judgments, and not just the underlying information, can be used in performing the evaluations.The AHP converts these evaluation

7、s to numerical values that can be processed and compared over the entire range of the problem. A numerical weight or priority is derived for each element of the hierarchy, allowing diverse and often incommensurable elements to be compared to one another in a rational and consistent way. This capabil

8、ity distinguishes the AHP from other decision making techniques.In the final step of the process, numerical priorities are derived for each of the decision alternatives. Since these numbers represent the alternatives' relative ability to achieve the decision goal, they allow a straightforward co

9、nsideration of the various courses of action.Uses and applicationsWhile it can be used by individuals working on straightforward decisions, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is most useful where teams of people are working on complex problems, especially those with high stakes, involving human percep

10、tions and judgments, whose resolutions have long-term repercussions. It has unique advantages where important elements of the decision are difficult to quantify or compare, or where communication among team members is impeded by their different specializations, terminologies, or perspectives.Decisio

11、n situations to which the AHP can be applied include:· Choice - The selection of one alternative from a given set of alternatives, usually where there are multiple decision criteria involved. · Ranking - Putting a set of alternatives in order from most to least desirable Prioritization - D

12、etermining the relative merit of a set of alternatives, as opposed to selecting a single one or merely ranking them · Resource allocation - Apportioning resources among a set of alternatives· Benchmarking - Comparing the processes in one's own organization with those of other best-of-b

13、reed organizations · Qualitymanagement - Dealing with the multidimensional aspects of quality and quality improvement The applications of AHP to complex decision situations have numbered in the thousands, and have produced extensive results in problems involving planning, Resource allocation, p

14、riority setting, and selection among alternatives. Other areas have included forecasting, toreotal quality management, business process re-engineering ,quality function deployment， and the Balanced Scorecard.Many AHP applications are never reported to the world at large, because they take place at h

15、igh levels of large organizations where security and privacy considerations prohibit their disclosure. But some uses of AHP are discussed in the literature. Recently these have included:· Deciding how best to reduce the impact of global climate change (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)· Quanti

16、fying the overall quality of software system(Microsoft corporation)· Selecting university faculty(Bloomsburg University of Pennsy)· Deciding where to locate offshore manufacturing plants(University of Cambridge)· Assessing risk in operating cross-country prtroleum pipelines(American S

17、ociety of Civil Engineers)· Deciding how best to manage U.S. watersheds(U.S. Department of Agriculture)AHP is sometimes used in designing highly specific procedures for particular situations, such as the rating of buildings by historic significance. It was recently applied to a project that use

18、s video footage to assess the condition of highways in Virginia. Highway engineers first used it to determine the optimum scope of the project, then to justify its budget to lawmakers. AHP is widely used in countries around the world. At a recent international conference on AHP, over 90 papers were

19、presented from 19 countries, including the U.S., Germany, Japan, Chile , Malaysia, andNepal. Topics covered ranged from Establishing Payment Standards for Surgical Specialists, to Strategic Technology Roadmapping, to Infrastructure Reconstruction in Devastated Countries. AHP was introduced in China

20、in 1982, and its use in that country has expanded greatly since thenits methods are highly compatible with the traditional Chinese decision making framework, and it has been used for many decisions in the fields ofeconomics,energy,management,environment,traffic,agriculture, industry, and the militar

21、y.Though using AHP requires no specialized academic trainning, the subject is widely taught at the university levelone AHP software provider lists over a hundred colleges and universities among its clients. AHP is considered an important subject in many institutions of higher learning, including sch

22、ools of engineering and Graduate school of Business . AHP is also an important subject in the quality field, and is taught in many specialized courses including Six Sigma, Lean Six Sigma, and QFD. In China, nearly a hundred schools offer courses in AHP, and many doctoral students choose AHP as the s

23、ubject of their research and dissertations. Over 900 papers have been published on the subject in that country, and there is at least one Chinese scholarly journal devoted exclusively to AHP.ImplementationAs can be seen in the examples that follow, using the AHP involves the mathematical synthesis o

24、f numerous judgments about the decision problem at hand. It is not uncommon for these judgments to number in the dozens or even the hundreds. While the math can be done by hand or with a calculator, it is far more common to use one of several computerized methods for entering and synthesizing the ju

25、dgments. The simplest of these involve standard spreadsheet software, while the most complex use custom software, often augmented by special devices for acquiring the judgments of decision makers gathered in a meeting room.Steps in using the processThe procedure for using the AHP can be summarized a

26、s:1. Model the problem as a hierarchy containing the decision goal, the alternatives for reaching it, and the criteria for evaluating the alternatives. 2. Establish priorities among the elements of the hierarchy by making a series of judgments based on pairwise comparisons of the elements. For examp

27、le, when comparing potential real-estate purchases, the investors might say they prefer location over price and price over timing. 3. Synthesize these judgments to yield a set of overall priorities for the hierarchy. This would combine the investors' judgments about location, price and timing fo

28、r properties A, B, C, and D into overall priorities for each property. 4. Check the consistency of the judgments. 5. Come to a final decision based on the results of this process. CriticismsThe AHP is now included in most operations research and management science textbooks, and is taught in numerou

29、s universities; it is used extensively in organizations that have carefully investigated its theoretical underpinnings. While the general consensus is that it is both technically valid and practically useful, the method does have its critics.In the early 1990s a series of debates between critics and

30、 proponents of AHP was published in Management Science and The Journal of the Operational Research Society. These debates seem to have been settled in favor of AHP.Occasional criticisms still appear. A 1997 paper examined possible flaws in the verbal (vs. numerical) scale often used in AHP pairwise

31、comparisons. Another from the same year claimed that innocuous changes to the AHP model can introduce order where no order exists. A 2006 paper found that the addition of criteria for which all alternatives perform equally can alter the priorities of alternatives. An in-depth paper discussing the ac

32、ademic criticisms of AHP was published in Operations Research in 2001.Most of the criticisms involve a phenomenon called rank reversal, discussed in the following section.Rank reversalMany people hear about rank reversal and assume that there is some sort of proven principle about it that needs to b

33、e upheld in making decisions. That assumption has led to much misunderstanding of AHP and other decision making techniques. In actuality, rank reversal is a complex matter about which there are many conflicting ideas and opinions. This section offers a simplified explanation of the situation.Decisio

34、n making involves ranking alternatives in terms of criteria or attributes of those alternatives. It is an axiom of some decision theories that when new alternatives are added to a decision problem, the ranking of the old alternatives must not change. But in the real world, adding new alternatives ca

35、n change the rank of the old ones. These rank reversals do not occur often, but the possibility of their occurrence has substantial logical implications about the methodology used to make decisions, the underlying assumptions of various decision theories, etc.A simple example will demonstrate the ph

36、enomenon of rank reversal:Consider a pretty girl in a small town. She's having a party next week, and she wants to buy a dress that will impress her guests. She visits the town's only dress store and goes to the rack of party dresses. There are five such dresses, and after long consideration

37、 she ranks them by desirability as follows:RankStyleColorPrice   1Style ABlue$109   2Style AGreen$109   3Style BRed$119   4Style CYellow  $99   5Style DOff-White$149Now imagine that she enters the back room and sees

38、 the store's entire inventory of dresses. The dresses she has looked at in Styles B, C, and D are the only ones of their kind, but there are four more Style A dresses in green and eight more Style A dresses in blue. In the language of decision science, these dresses are copies of the existing al

39、ternatives. In our one-store small town scenario, there's a reasonable chance that one or more party guests would buy and wear one of the copies. When made aware of these new alternatives, our fashion-conscious girl might rank her choices in a different order. Considering her great embarrassment

40、 if a guest were to wear the same dress that she did, she might rank her choices like this:RankOld RankStyleColorPrice   1   3Style BRed$119   2   4Style CYellow  $99   3   5Style DOff-White$149 

41、  4   2Style AGreen$109   5   1Style ABlue$109Notice that the rankings of the two Style A dresses have reversed (since there are more copies of the blue dress than of the green one). Not only that, but Style A has gone from the most preferred st

42、yle to the least preferred. Rank reversal has occurred. Axioms of decision theories have been violated. Scholars and researchers can cry "foul," or impugn the method by which the girl has made her choice, but there is no denying that in the world of our example, ranks have been reversed. T

43、here is no doubt that the reversal is due to the introduction of additional alternatives that are no different from the existing ones.The above is but one example of rank reversal. Rank reversal can also occur when additional alternatives are added/removed that are not copies of the original alterna

44、tives (e.g., red and yellow dresses in completely different styles). Another example of rank reversal occurred in the 2000 U.S. presidential election. Ralph Nader was an 'irrelevant' alternative, in that he was dominated by both the Democrat and Republican candidates. However, since he attra

45、cted more votes from those who would have voted Democrat rather than Republican, his presence caused the ranks to reverse. Put another way, if Nader were not in the race, it is widely accepted that Al Gore would have won.There are two schools of thought about rank reversal. One maintains that new al

46、ternatives that introduce no additional attributes should not cause rank reversal under any circumstances. The other maintains that there are both situations in which rank reversal is not reasonable as well as situations where they are to be expected. The current version of the AHP can accommodate b

47、oth these schools its Ideal Mode preserves rank, while its Distributive Mode allows the ranks to change. Either mode is selected according to the problem at hand.层次分析法层次分析法（AHP）是一种帮助人们处理复杂决策的结构化技术，比起一种指定的“正确”的方法，层次分析法能帮助人们决定哪一种是更适合他们的需求。基于数学和心理学，Thomas L. Saaty于1970年深入研究了层次分析法，从此以后，层次分析法被广泛的学习和重定义。A

48、HP为构建一个问题，描述和权衡它的因素，相关那样的因素达到整体的目标，评估交互的解决方法提供了一种广泛的和理性的框架结构。在这个世界中，它被广泛的应用在各种决策形式：像政府，商业，工业，医疗保健和教育等各种领域。一些公司提供计算机软件来支持这些过程。AHP的用户一开始把他们的决策分解成更简单的包含各种子问题的层次结构，每一种子问题都能够单独的分析。这种层次架构的各种因素关系到决策问题的各种方面，包括明确的和不明确的问题，仔细的估量和粗略的估计，好的和不好的任何事情。这些方面的问题用于当前的决策。一旦层次结构建立，决策者系统评估其各个组成部分，比较彼此在对。在作出这一比较，决策者可以使用的具体数

49、据内容，也可以利用其判断的因素的相对意义和重要性。这是AHP的本质，人类的判断，而不仅仅是基本的信息，可用于履行的评价。层次分析法评价转换这些数值，可处理和比较在整个范围内的问题。数值重量或优先源自各层次的每个因素，允许让不同的而且往往不可加以比较的要素以一个以合理和一致的方式进行比较。这是AHP区分其他决策方法的能力。在最后一步的过程中，数值的优先权得出每一个可供选择的决定。由于这些数字表示以实现决策的目标相对能力，他们可以从各种复杂的行动中找出直接的方案。使用和应用虽然它可用于个人从事简单的决定，层次分析法（ AHP ）是最有用的地方是一个团队正在努力处理复杂的问题，尤其是那些高风险，涉及

50、人权的认识和判断，其决议具有长期影响。它具有独特的优势在于其重要组成部分的决定都是难以量化或比较的，或在团队成员之间阻碍了他们难以沟通的不同专业，术语，或观点。AHP在以下决策情况下使用：选择由一组给定的替代品中选择一个替代品，通常当市场上有多个决策标准参与。排序从最不理想的方案中实施了一套替代方案。优先级确定一套替代方案的相对优点，而不是选择一个人或者仅仅是凭借他们的排名。资源分配在一套替代品方案中分配资源。基准在自己的组织与其他同类最佳组织比较过程。质量管理处理多层面的质量和质量改进。对复杂的情况下应用层次分析法决定了编号数以千计，在题涉及规划，资源分配，确定优先次序，选择其中替代品中产生

51、了广泛的结果，其他领域包括预测，全面质量管理，业务流程再设计，质量功能配置，和平衡计分卡。许多层次的应用从来没有报告给整个世界，因为它们应用在高层次的大型组织，基于安全和隐私的考虑，禁止其披露。但是，一些利用层次分析法，讨论了文献中。最近这些活动包括：决定如何最好地减少全球气候变化的影响（埃尼恩马德基金会）软件系统整体素质的量化（微软公司）选择大学教师（宾夕法尼亚大学）决定在何处建造海外制造工厂（剑桥大学）评估经营跨国石油管道的风险（美国土木工程师学会）决定如何最好地管理美国的流域（美国农业部）层次分析法有时用在设计高度的具体程序的特殊情况，如评价的建筑物的历史意义。这是最近申请的一个项目，利

52、用录像资料，以评估在弗吉尼亚州的高速公路的状况。公路工程师首先用它来确定最合适的项目范围，然后来证明其预算给国会议员。层次分析法被广泛应用于世界各国。在最近举行的一次AHP国际会议，超过来自19个国家提交文件的90多份文件，包括美国，德国，日本，智利，马来西亚和尼泊尔。话题涉及范围从建立支付标准的外科专家，路况战略技术，受灾国家基础设施的重建。层次分析法在1982年引进中国，它的使用在该国已大大增加，因为当时它的方法非常符合中国传统的决策框架，并已用于许多决策领域如：经济，能源，管理，环境，交通，农业，工业和军事。虽然采用层次分析法不需要专门的学术训练，这一问题是广泛任教于大学一级层次。软件供应商客户名单超过一百个是学院和大学。层次分析法被认为是一个重要课题，许多高等学府，其中包括学校的工程和研究生院的业务。层次分析法在质量领域也是一个重要的主题，并传授许多专门课程，包括六西格玛，精益六西格玛，和QFD。在中国，近100所学校开设AHP，许多博士生选择以层次分析法为研究的主体和论文。在该国已出版了超过9