精选中联电气002323股权资本成本估计资料

1、产品（单位：百万兀）200720082009E2010E2011E隔爆型移动变电站营业收入4369991291542500KVA及以上同比增长72.62%60.43%42.74%30.00%20.00%毛利率51.22%48.82%50.00%50.00%50.00%800KVA-2000KV营业收入677885111155同比增长23.99%15.49%9.12%30.00%40.00%A毛利率35.20%31.59%31.59%31.59%31.59%630KVA及以下营业收入62697193130同比增长3.26%11.11%3.32%30.00%40.00%毛利率32.58%23.05

2、%23.05%23.05%23.05%隔爆型移动变电营业收入173216255332439同比增长站小计23.77%25.15%18.04%30.00%32.25%毛利率38.26%34.39%36.34%36.34%35.54%隔爆型干式变压器营业收入12232500KVA及以上同比增长一一一一100.00%毛利率一一一27.00%27.00%800KVA-2000KV营业收入 同比增长4231021-38.58%7.50%300.00%100.00%A毛利率32.23%26.86%26.86%26.86%26.86%营业收入3345495976630KVA及以下同比增长-37.90%33.

3、85%9.49%20.00%30.00%毛利率27.29%26.08%26.08%26.08%26.08%隔爆型干式变压营业收入37475181120同比增长器小计-37.76%26.20%9.39%56.49%49.03%毛利率27.81%26.12%26.12%26.12%26.12%营业收入1412141720配件及修理费等同比增长189.07%-15.69%20.00%20.00%15.00%毛利率26.47%37.54%37.54%37.54%37.54%营业收入224275321430579收入合计同比增长9.72%22.73%16.65%33.80%34.70%综合毛利率35.7

4、7%33.11%34.75%34.47%33.65%二、公司估值(一) DCF绝对估值经过计算，DCF (WACC = 8.37, g = 3%)= 27.82，敏感性分析的合理估值区间是(23.81 ,33.63)。具体估值过程见附表。表2:绝对估值敏感性分析27.82永续增长率g2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%本6.87%33.1536.0439.6744.3850.73成7.37%29.7632.0334.8138.3142.85本7.87%26.9628.7730.9533.6337.00资8.37%24.6126.0827.8229.9232.50权CA8.87%22.602

5、3.8125.2326.9028.93A 加W9.37%20.8721.8823.0424.4126.039.87%19.3620.2121.1822.3123.62（二）相对估值按照发行后的总股本，预计公司09、10和11年的EPS分别为0.92、1.13和1.44元，业绩年复合增长率达到 27.1%。根据行业发展前景、公司成长性和行业地位，我们认为公司的合理相对估值为按 2010年动态市盈率2530倍，对应股价为 2833.6元。公司估值比较见 报告后的电气设备公司估值表。表3: A股主要变压器相关公司估值表股价总市值 PE公司代码2009.12.11白力兀20082009E2010E20

6、11E特变电工600089.SH244313744.827.325.121.3天威保变600550.SH33.673932741.755.535.825.4三变科技002112.SZ14.31158667.444.546.135.3平均51.342.435.627.3中联电气002323.SZ30248342.932.526.620.8（三）公司合理价值为2833.6元综合以上两种估值方法，结合目前市场整体估值水平，我们认为公司的合理价值为2833.6元，相当于2010年2530倍的动态市盈率。（四）风险估计表4:2008A2009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E

7、2016E2017E2018E6534814910681391316355188919862088219122982411EBIT.9.80.9.8.84.35.28.93.38.57.0819.10222136.2782.3271.3778.397341774382.4597.4823.所得税9.52829.0.8774546457157127.8544.11131130815111589167117531839NOPLAT.3.037.04.65.42.21.10.60.8437.-205-1603-3975-5488-4226-427-113-1198-1138-1195营运资金净变动9

8、4.6.0.9.8.75.83.0.9.8.7-187.-500-1500-2000-1000-1000-100-200-2000-2000-200资本支出80.00.0.0.0.00.00.0.0.00.0自由现金3643897.-94435007.9447.115715601548164917431827流.60.4615.63.70.92.72.05.0WACC8.4%12.02Ke%27.82g永续增长6.742.002.503.003.504.00率3%Kd%9108.20.006.8733.136.0终值6t%5439.6744.3850.7323022.507.3729.732.

9、0企业价值34.8Rf%6334.8138.3142.85非核心资5887.E(R11.007.8726.928.7产价值8m)%6730.9533.6337.00Rm8.508.3724.626.0债务价值0.00-Rf%1827.8229.9232.5023020.008.8722.623.8股权价值34.8D/A%0125.2326.9028.938276.100.09.3720.821.8股本00E/A0%CAW%7823.0424.4126.039.8719.320.2每股价值27.82Beta1.12%6121.1822.3123.62方法：由于本次作业为估测单个股票的B系数，则先以每日的收盘价分别计算当日指数收益率