LNG接收站建设带动能源新基建分析

1、图表1:中国LNG接收站产能统计序号状态LNGg?收站经营者位置省份产能（白力吨/年）20192020E2021E2022E2023E2024E2025E1投运甲海选（未J1删泊.m.出 号6.806.806.806.806.806.806.802投运洋山中海油上海洋山港上海3.003.003.003.003.003.003.003投运莆田中海油福建莆田湄洲湾福建6.306.306.306.306.306.306.304投运洋浦中海油海南洋浦港海南3.003.003.003.003.003.003.005投运天津中海油天津港大沽口（南疆港区）天津2.202.202.204.954.954.95

2、4.956投运宁波中海油宁波舟山白峰镇中宅浙江3.003.006.006.006.006.006.007投运金湾中海油珠海高栏港广东3.503.503.503.503.503.503.508投运粤东中海油揭阳惠来县前詹镇沟疏村广东2.002.002.002.002.002.002.009投运迭福中海油深圳龙岗大鹏迭福湾广东4.004.004.004.004.004.004.0010投运防城港中海油广西防城港广西0.600.600.600.600.600.600.6011投运青岛中石化青岛胶南董家口山东3.003.007.007.007.007.007.0012投运北海中石化广西北海铁山港广西3

3、.003.003.003.003.003.003.0013投运天津中石化天津滨海新区南港天津3.006.0010.8010.8010.8010.8010.8014投运如东中石油南通如东洋口港江苏6.506.5010.0010.0010.0010.0010.0015投运大连中石油大连大孤山半岛大连新港辽宁6.006.006.006.006.006.006.0016投运曹妃甸中石油唐山曹妃甸河北6.5010.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.0017投运海南海口中石油海南海口澄迈县海南0.270.270.270.270.270.270.2718投运五号沟申能上海五号沟上海1.501

4、.501.501.501.501.501.5019投运东莞九丰东莞虎门港广东1.501.501.501.501.501.501.5020投运启东广汇能源江苏启东江苏1.153.003.003.003.003.003.0021投运舟山新奥能源宁波舟山浙江3.003.005.005.005.005.005.0022投运大鹏深燃深圳燃气广东深圳大鹏广东0.800.800.800.800.800.800.80小计70.6278.9796.2799.0299.0299.0299.021在建龙口南山LNG®目国家管网公司山东省烟台市龙口港区山东5.005.005.002在建漳州中海油福建漳州龙海

5、市兴古湾福建3.003.003.003.003在建滨海中海油江苏滨海江苏3.003.003.003.004在建潮州华丰中天广东潮州广东1.001.001.001.001.001.005在建江阴中天能源江苏江阴江苏2.002.002.002.002.002.006在建大麦屿LNG中转储运项目君安能源大麦屿港区浙江2.002.002.002.002.007在建嘉兴平湖浙江杭嘉鑫清洁能源有限公司浙江嘉兴独山港浙江1.001.001.001.001.001.008在建浙能温州LNG®目浙江能源温州市洞头区小门岛东屿村浙江3.003.003.003.0010.009在建天津南港LNG®

6、;目北京控股天津滨海新区南港工业区天津5.005.005.005.0010在建阳江海陵湾LNG®目广东能源阳江港吉树港广东2.802.8011在建广州/烬气LNGH峰项目广燃南沙岛广东1.001.001.001.0012在建曹妃甸新天新天绿色能源河北唐山曹妃甸河北5.005.005.0010.0013在建日照港北京能源集团、山东岚桥集团山东日照岚桥港山东5.00小计-4.009.0026.0031.0033.8050.801核准龙口配母岛港中海油山东南山山东5.005.005.005.002核准惠州广东能源广东惠州惠东县广东4.004.004.004.003核准烟台西港区保利协鑫山东

7、烟台西港区山东5.005.005.005.00小计-14.0014.0014.0014.001拟建浙江舟山六横LNG®目中石化浙江舟山六横浙江7.007.002拟建龙口中石化山东龙口山东6.006.006.006.003拟建中石油茂名LNG项目中石油茂名广东3.003.003.004拟建江苏华电赣榆中国华电集团清洁能源有限公司连云港赣榆港区江苏3.003.003.003.005拟建宝塔石化蓬莱宝塔石化山东蓬莱山东2.806拟建温州华港石化LNGH峰项目华峰集团温州市洞头区状元/港浙江1.001.001.001.007拟建协鑫汇东LNG®目协鑫南通市如东县临港工业区江苏2.7

8、02.702.708拟建珠海直湾岛LNG®目澳门天然气珠海万山海洋开发试验区西部广东3.003.005.009拟建百川能源绥中LNG项目百川能源绥中县东戴河新区辽宁2.602.602.602.6010拟建潮州华瀛天然气广东潮州饶平县广东6.006.006.006.0011拟建粤电汕头LNG®目粤电汕头广东6.0012拟建揭阳一期昆仑能源揭阳广东3.5013拟建浙江舟山六横LNG®目浙江浙能六横液化天然气有限公司浙江舟山六横浙江12.00小计-18.6027.3034.3060.60新增产能（百万吨/年）2.112.422.352.413.79.843.3合计产能（

9、百万吨/年）70.683.0105.3157.6171.3181.1224.4资料来源：上海石油天然气交易中心，中金公司研究部图表2:截止2019年底中国LNG接收站产能分布百万吨/年图表3:截止2025年底中国LNG接收站产能分布预测 广东江苏山东福建辽宁浙江 天津上海 广西 海南河北 广东江苏山东福建辽宁浙江 天津上海 广西 海南河北资料来源：上海石油天然气交易中心，中金公司研究部资料来源：上海石油天然气交易中心，中金公司研究部图表4:中国LNG接收站产能与利用率预测中国LN黎收站能力利用率（右轴）资料来源：海关总署，上海石油天然气交易中心，中金公司研究部图表5:中国天然气供应情况LNGf

10、fl 口量对外依存度（右轴）资料来源：海关总署，中金公司研究部图表6:日本LNG现货价格资料来源：日本经济产业省，彭博资讯，中金公司研究部图表7:进口管道气价格对比图表8:进口 LNG价格对比3.002.502.001.501.000.500.00元/立方米 2018 20192.62 Apr-201.41.41.4.5.51.61.5 1.51.81.71!1.81511 1 i 1 Lj 黔1发守式11111L.13.002.502.001.501.000.500.00资料来源：海天息署，中金公司研究部资料来源：海天息署，中金公司研究部图表9：中国天然气进口量百万立方米土库曼斯坦官道气美国

11、LNG俄罗斯尼日利亚安哥拉赤道几内亚其他合计进口总量乌兹别克斯坦哈萨克斯坦缅甸俄罗斯合计澳大利亚卡塔尔马来西亚印尼巴新2018-012,479,268356'440 '0,3,544,2,4751,627 ,685471215711 ,87261183 ,0 ,341 ,7,05710,6012018-023,13621025143604,0332,2341,14640241721535588171961891235,4369,4692018-032,89618723938603,7081,6721,228352294017701831772001534,4378,145201

12、8-043,28553649138504,6972,54188855844502040008204,7189,4152018-052,94271149532504,4732,4296717435335014870101001825,64710,1212018-062,89269758938604,5652,6907927212503052021010003405,4019,9652018-072,91470764914904,4193,1875275156732961854011919490-4955,66410,0832018-082,8546546166404,1883,1961,0006

13、5034530620210009305296,42010,6082018-092,9787186907104,4572,6071,22381621230320200006095,97310,4302018-102,3567255546603,7023,1011,48068358230808700198-1856,2559,9562018-113,0346685617504,3383,7571,10496770240719557484003578,14712,4852018-122,93549234725704,0283,4321,7845971,246494017546889202548,54

14、212,5702019-013,08948841343204,4253,3381,8828607122931949954692998518,96713,3922019-023,08627163041504,3982,6571,07826417350994873739306045,93110,3292019-032,79024455835603,9463,038742264351393940184004415,5069,4522019-042,83440266436204,2613,49782944824929601750006926,18610,4472019-052,769482693338

15、04,2823,2805561,32852620501018000-496,02810,3102019-062,78443247940004,0953,2956799663562950084004716,14610,2412019-072,66234671840104,1273,49564151552230803929001884926,64210,7692019-082,73854064139904,3183,179833830537286059018402074157,05911,3772019-092,77653357638304,2692,82985089356030506889300

16、7366,95411,2222019-102,13342346737903,4023,139639345402293067710100-955,5008,9022019-112,56948056642504,0403,4901,470992736287028837201771,0408,85212,8912019-122,73842662239354,1843,8151,7851,18767420502683750994398,84713,0312020-012,765307 ,764, 401 ,333,4,5701,9121,166 '5626503110 .3793630 .92

17、 .2,189 ,7,624 ,12,1942020-022,7653077644013334,5702,5941,01031237818500100003,0447,62412,1942020-032,3342096103142723,7402,89470873368430300295001285,7449,4842020-042,3321796103311483,6003,85840475557148738900005206,98310,583注：2020年1/2月LNG进口量明细为实际数据，1/2月其他数据均采取海关总署公布的1-2月平均数。资料来源：海关总署，彭博资讯，中金公司研究部。

18、图表10:中国天然气进口价格元/立方米土库曼斯坦乌兹别克斯坦管道气哈萨克斯坦缅甸俄罗斯合计澳大利亚卡塔尔马来西亚印尼巴新美国LNG平均进口价格俄罗斯尼日利亚安哥拉赤道几内亚其他合计2018-011.331.191.102.191.401.822.201.751.931.992.271.932.122.52-2.021.812018-021.371.251.142.201.442.022.371.501.802.122.162.262.272.942.282.111.822018-031.381.241.122.181.441.902.451.611.83-2.33-2.202.612.262.

19、121.812018-041.351.251.162.131.382.102.581.532.09-2.19-2.442.121.752018-051.431.351.182.331.462.112.532.012.18-2.47-2.191.872018-061.461.401.322.331.512.192.511.892.33-2.47-2.59-2.251.912018-071.521.421.362.231.502.372.592.212.46-2.802.592.522.852.592.452.042018-081.661.551.482.451.632.422.722.252.4

20、8-2.652.55-2.492.152018-091.651.561.492.461.632.472.762.492.50-2.75-2.53-2.582.172018-101.631.581.502.531.622.612.982.362.833.12-3.64-2.852.732.322018-111.761.671.492.491.722.782.952.582.672.922.822.852.45-2.792.422018-121.771.641.522.661.792.733.112.432.842.89-2.933.043.493.632.852.512019-011.731.5

21、71.472.481.762.643.052.302.822.932.12-3.01-2.902.762.432019-021.811.461.542.511.822.722.992.162.722.532.172.742.433.55-2.692.322019-031.811.641.542.531.832.572.731.992.872.43-2.922.223.53-2.572.262019-041.801.641.512.531.802.292.692.252.442.542.181.58-2.362.132019-051.831.661.462.561.812.352.851.592

22、.092.67-1.981.47-2.232.062019-061.801.651.432.661.822.132.621.862.502.49-2.512.77-2.232.072019-071.821.631.452.621.822.222.231.992.212.39-2.381.19-1.582.192.042019-081.861.671.482.721.862.282.882.052.082.60-2.321.23-1.382.302.132019-091.851.671.452.721.852.593.141.872.002.80-2.271.28-2.392.192019-10

23、1.821.651.422.661.842.472.211.871.802.68-2.782.75-2.382.172019-111.791.601.442.661.812.252.892.042.392.58-1.722.28-3.452.362.192019-121.721.541.472.371.411.722.192.661.872.252.52-1.772.26-2.662.242.082020-011.721.441.482.521.361.702.182.843.464.485.07-2.131.941.841.752.222.012020-021.721.441.482.521

24、.361.702.182.843.464.485.07-2.131.941.841.752.222.032020-031.661.551.512.511.351.682.112.951.641.632.57-1.821.951.66-2.101.932020-041.661.531.452.511.371.682.222.801.172.042.400.961.352.87-2.051.93注：2020年1/2月数据均采取海关总署公布的1-2月平均数。资料来源：海关总署，彭博资讯，中金公司研究部。图表11: 2019年中国签订的部分 LNG合同合同类型进货方销售方来源数量 百万吨/年期限 年起

25、始交货方式CAPCO and HK ElectricShell Eastern TradingPortforlio2020DES忤CNOOC Gas and Power SingaporeTrading & MarketingMozambique LNG1Co.Mozambique/MozambiqueLNG1.5132024/2025Guanghui Energy （广汇能源）TotalPortforlio0.7102020年6月DES浙江省能源集团ExxonMobilPortforlio0.120V4年Clean EnergyShizuoka GasJapan/Shimizu LN

26、G Terminal in form of ISO Tank containers1,600 吨3Top Speed Energy Corp.FortisBCCanada/Tilbury LNG facility53,000吨22020暂定协议ENN Group （新奥集团）WoodsidePortforlio1.0102025年1月FOB/DES资料来源：电力网，中金公司研究部图表12: 2016-19年中国LNG进口量统计中国LNG3 口量（百万吨）现货和短期合同数量（千吨）现货和短期合同数量占比出口国20192018201720162019201820192018阿尔及尼业0.060.070.060.00586697%94%安哥拉0.130.520.280.