FDI与中国出口商品结构的协整分析外文原文

1、FDI与中国出口商品结构的协整分析外文原文 rdProceedings of the 3 International Conference on Product Innovation Managemeet Co -integration Analysis of FDI and Chinese ExportCommodity StructureYang Ming School of Economic, Shandong University of Technology, Shandong, 255049 Email: nkyangming126, zhangmin_8501/0>.Abst

2、ract: The paper uses econometric methods to analyse the relation between FDI and Chinese export commodity comparative advantage structure. The numerical dominance of a relative comparison between Capital-intensive products and labor-intensive products has a rising trend and that the structure with a

3、 comparative advantage in Chinas high-tech industry has been escalating continuously. Foreign direct investment has played a positive role on promoting Chinese export structure, which is conducive in upgrading Chinese industrial structure. To further upgrade Chinese industrial structure, China shoul

4、d develop a bases on the allocation of market resources to play its comparative advantages, and adopt new regional policies to attract FDI, and raise their capital-and technology-intensive industrial capacityKeywords: Comparative advantage, Foreign direct investment, Industrial structure1 Introducti

5、onFDI can upgrade the industrial structure of the host country. This effect is considered one of the welfare effects which FDI brought Markuson, Venables, 1999. Kesha Guo 2000 thought that FDI promoted not only the high degree processing of the industrial structure, but also the development of techn

6、ology-intensive industries. Xiaojuan Jiang 2002 thought that foreign direct investment contributed positively on the upgrading of Chinese industrial structure and the expanding of exportsApart from these, foreign direct investment can also improve the structure of export commodities, and boost up th

7、eir research and development capabilities. Jianguo Xie 2003 found that FDI could upgrade the export competitiveness of Chinese industrial products, especially the high-tech products. FDI was also conducive to optimize the industrial structure, and promote the migration from Chinese export structure

8、to the high-tech products export structure. Song Jing 2005 studied from the perspective of foreign trade and found that foreign direct investment weakened the comparative advantage of Chinese capital-and technology-intensive products, but it promoted to upgrade the industrial structure and the techn

9、ical level. Song Hong 2004 analyzed the development of Chinese auto industry and found that Chinese auto industry was gradually transformed to the dependent growth mode which was dominant by multinational national enterprises. We calculated RCA revealed comparative advantageof export commodities car

10、efully and tested the co-integration relationship between FDI and RCA, so as to grasp the function of FDI to Chinese industrial upgrading more accurately 2 Chinese Export Commodity StructureFrom the structure of export goods, since the early 1980s, Chinese export products tended to be diversificatio

11、n increasingly, the share of almost all goods in the worlds total exports were increasedHowever, the export proportion of the primary products which was 50.3 percent in 1980 has significantly dropped to 6.8 percent in 2004, while exports proportion of industrial products which was 49.7 percent in 19

12、80 has significantly risen to 93 percent in 2004, and the structure of export goods has changed a lot. In the composition of inner industrial products, the proportion of total industrial products was increasing, while industrial products of 5, 6 and 9 types has dropped instead of risen. Therefore, t

13、he exports of the machine and transport equipment mainly caused the increasing export of industrial products. This changed our previous export structure which was simple labor-intensive export structureThe proportion of high-tech product exports in the total exports has increased continually. In 200

14、4 this proportion has been reached to 27.9 percent, it has increased 21.12 percent more than the proportion in1995 which was 6.78Using index of RCA revealed comparative advantage, we can analyze the upgrading situation of Chinese industrial structure. We classify the products according to the standa

15、rds of international trade code SITC. In industrial products, labor-intensive products are consisted by light textile products and miscellaneous manufactured articles, capital -intensive products are constituted by chemicals and related products, machine and transport equipment. We calculate the rel

16、ative data of revealed comparative advantage between the capital-intensive products and labor-intensive products, a rising trend Tab.1,1406rdProceedings of the 3 International Conference on Product Innovation Managemeet which reflects the export competitiveness of Chinese capital-intensive industrie

17、s improve continually, and then the industrial structure are upgrading Tab. 1 The Fluctuation of Chinese Industrial RCAYear RCAklg Year RCAklg Year RCAklg 1984 0.8 1992 0.468896392852 2000 0.63884183054 1985 0.345483963072 1993 0.507005651008 2001 0.648070306346 1986 0.358631663945 1994 0.4814312303

18、21 2002 0.6718388252811987 0.358500992124 1995 0.534506484988 2003 0.6910518198761988 0.333732543221 1996 0.565905914087 2004 0.71989 0.382796734994 1997 0.595472094469 2005 0.7314376573011990 0.426342656025 1998 0.6 2006 0.7489571035251991 0.4 1999 0.656703602717 2007 0.7597938538213 The Contributi

19、on of FDI on Chinese Export Trade and Structure In the growing volume of exports, FDI has made great contribution; the proportion of foreign-funded enterprises exports increased year by year in national exports and the proportion exceed 50% from 2001. By the end of 2007, Chinese total exports has re

20、ached to 593.368 billion US dollars, of which, exports of foreign-invested enterprises amounted to 338.606 billion US dollars, exports of foreign -invested enterprises accounted for 57.1% of the countrys total exportsForeign direct investment not only promoted the overall level of Chinese exports, b

21、ut also improved Chinese export structure. In Chinese machinery electronic industry and high-tech industry, the exports of foreign-invested enterprises have a significant percentage in themThe contribution of high-tech products exports on the growth rate of national export are getting bigger and big

22、ger. In recent years, the export growth rate in each year exceeded the national export growth rate, which showed that exports growth of high-tech products has played a driving role in the national export growth. But from the constitution of high-tech industry enterprises, foreign-invested enterprise

23、s remained the main leaders of high-tech products exports. In 2007, high-tech products exports of foreign ?invested enterprises amounted to 2874.32 billion US dollars, accounting for 86.7 percent in Chinese high-tech product exports, state-owned enterprises exported high-tech products 16.15 billion

24、US dollars, holding 7.4 percent in Chinese high-tech product exportsTo test the relationship between FDI and changes in industrial structure, we adopt the data in 1984-2007. Separately using FDI, tex, exkg, exlg to denote the value of total foreign direct investment, export volume, the total capital

25、-intensive products exports, the total exports of labor-intensive products by the spot prices. In order to eliminate the effect of price elements, and similarly eliminate the difference variance in the data, we deal these variables with natural logarithm, then gain the time-series data: lnfdi log fd

26、i, lnexkg log exkg. Now test the upgrading relationship of FDI to Chinese capital-intensive industries. We test it on two aspects, one way is testing the long-term relationship of FDI to capital -intensive products exports, and the other is testing the long-term relationship of FDI to the RCA level

27、in capital-intensive productsFirstly we test the long-term relationship of FDI to capital-intensive products export1 Unit root test: time sequence lnfdi and lnexkg are non-smooth, now test the time sequence lnexkg and lnfdi. Through test we find that both of them are second-order single whole variab

28、les, test results are in Table 2:Tab. 2 The Smooth Test Results of Time Sequence between FDI and Capital-Intensive Products Export1%test Variables Differential Order ADF Numeral 5% test Numeral Smooth Numeral Lnfdi second-order -3.394552 -2.7158 -1.9627 smooth lnexkg second-order -3.004077 -2.7158 -

29、1.9627 smooth2 Co-integration test: Because both lnfdi and lnexkg are second-order smooth sequence, we can take a further co-integration test to see if there exists a co-integration relationship between them. Test shows that there exists a co-integration relations between lnfdi and lnexkg, that is t

30、o say, a long-term balanced relationship exist between the two variables. Test results as Table 3:1407rdProceedings of the 3 International Conference on Product Innovation Managemeet Tab. 3 Time Sequence Co-integration Test Results of FDI and Capital-intensive Products ExportLikelihood 5 Percent 1 P

31、ercent Hypothesized Eigenvalue Ratio Critical Value Critical Value No. of CEs 0.650894 23.07501 15.41 20.04 None 0.149639 3.079786 3.76 6.65 At most 1 *denotes rejection of the hypothesis at 5% 1% significance level L.R. test indicates 1 co-integrating equations at 5% significance level 3 Granger ca

32、usality test between the two variables Tab. 4 Granger Causality Test Results between FDI and Capital-intensive Products ExportNull Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability LNEXKG does not Granger Cause LNFDI 17 2.24239 0.17699 LNFDI does not Granger Cause LNEXKG 8.25076 0.01156Test results that the t

33、able 4 shows are: the assumption that FDI is not the reasons for the change of capital-intensive products export is rejected, that is, FDI affects significantly on capital-intensive products exportsIn the following we will further test the upgraded effect of FDI on the comparative advantage of the c

34、apital-intensive industriesWe make the annual RCA level which can reflect capital-intensive products into a time sequence, the date of RCA level: RCA exports - imports / exports + imports, so it will be negative. To prevent the negative, we will add 1 to the time sequence of RCA level, and then gain

35、 a new sequence RCA1. We use RCAkg1 to represent the time sequence of RCA level in capital-intensive products, it is non-stationary sequence, ADF is tested as a second a stationary sequence, as Table 5 Tab. 5 Time Sequence Stationary Test Results between FDI and the RCA Level of Capital-intensive Pr

36、oductsADF Test Statistic -3.637444 1%Critical Value -2.7275 5%Critical Value -1.9642 10% Critical Value -1.6269 So we can make co-integration test on lnfdi and RCAkg1, the test results are as Table 6Tab. 6 Co-integration Test Results between FDI and the RCA Level of Capital-intensive ProductsLikelih

37、ood 5 Percent 1 Percent Hypothesized Eigenvalue Ratio Critical Value Critical Value No. of CEs 0.361496 12.39315 15.41 20.04 None 0.213278 4.317854 3.76 6.65 At most 1 * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at 5% 1% significance level L.R. rejects any co-integration at 5% significance levelTest resul

38、ts show that a long-term balance relationship exists between the two variables. To identify the causal link between the two variables, we process the granger causality test between lnfdi and RCAkg1, the test results are showed in Table 7:Tab. 7 Granger Causality Test Results between FDI and the RCA

39、Level of Capital-intensive ProductsNull Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability LNFDI does not Granger Cause RCAKG1 19 4.54981 0.03004 RCAKG1 does not Granger Cause LNFDI 3.70155 0.05123According to the test results we conclude: lnfdi is the granger reason for the change of RCAkg1, that is, FDI can

40、upgrade the RCA level of the capital-intensive industries in China, and it is conductive to upgrade Chinese industry structure1408rdProceedings of the 3 International Conference on Product Innovation Managemeet 4 The Development of the New District Advantage and the Industrial Choice of FDI Foreign

41、direct investment has played a significant role in promoting the export of Chinese capital-and technology-intensive industries and developing the high-tech industry, it also has promoted to upgrade Chinese industrial structure. Therefore, attract foreign direct investment actively is a basic economi

42、c policy in Chinese futureHowever, the purpose and location advantages of attracting foreign direct investment at this stage and for the future is different from the beginning of reform opening up. At the beginning of Chinese reform opening up, ease the shortage of capital was the major purpose for

43、our country to attract foreign multinational corporations and other enterprises investing, the comparative advantage of cheap labor resources and labor-intensive industries was the main location factors, and we also adopted a more favorable policy to attract foreign investment. But in the future, be

44、sides market factors, the human capital as a high input factor of modern industrial development also can attract foreign investment. It constitutes one of the important sources on affecting the industrys comparative advantage. And in the regional factors of attracting foreign direct investment, its

45、importance also continues to increase with the raising of production technology level and the upgrading of industrial structureAbout human capitals attraction on material capital, Lucas has made “the mystery of Lucas”Lucas, 1991, that is, capital flows mainly exist between developed countries. This

46、means the capital doesnt flow from rich countries to poor countries. Lucas showed that the relative lack of the developing countries human capital was the important reason for this fact. Especially for the high-tech industries, these industries need a lot of human capital elements. The lack of human

47、 capital will take difficulties for foreign investors to enter these industries. According to the relevant data of UNCTAD UNCTAD, 1999, we can find that human capital factors play an important role on the foreign direct investment inflows of developing countries. Since the 1990s, foreign direct inve

48、stment that African countries attracted was primarily concentrated on the commodities and resource-based manufacturing, but Asia、Latin America and the Caribbean region has more high value-added foreign direct investment inflows. The main reason behind the differences is that different regions have d

49、ifferent levels of human capital. Global production model has converted to a high-tech manufacturing and service which were based on skills. Under this trend, the multinational enterprises will regard the countries and regions which have the rich labor of engineering technology, management and organ

50、izational skills as a major investment location Tab. 8 The Industry Structure of FDI in Developing Countries Unit: %Asia Latin America and Caribbean Sea Africa World1988 1997 1988 1997 19881997 1988 1997 Primary 8.4 3.5 8.8 5.7 51.853.4 10.3 3.9 Manufacturing 62.1 62.9 67.2 38.8 20.826.8 62.3 60.7 S

51、ervice 29.4 33.6 23.8 55.5 27.419.8 27.4 35.4 Data Source: UNCTAD1999,World Investment Report In the study of Nunnenkamp and Spatz 2002, they used the data in the medium-term of 20th century 80-90 to study the human capital variables impaction on foreign direct investment inflows, and they found tha

52、t human capital has a significant positive effect on foreign direct investment inflowsForeign direct investment in Chinese industrial structure has entered into the capital-and technology-intensive stage, it has also begun to take shape on the high-tech industries and the research and development in

53、vestment, and rich human resources is one of the area advantages to attract foreign investment enter into these industries. Investment on education is one of the major means for human capitals accumulationIt requires the government to develop education vigorously, including cultural quality education and vocational and technical education, and strive to cultivate a large number of technic