如何规划疫情后世界

1、如何规划疫情后世界 ex ecutiv e summary the co vid-19 virus is sw eeping acr os s the w orld, l eaving a tr ail of ec onomic and social damage in its wak e. f orwar d thinking or ganizations ar e s t arting to plan f or a pos t- co vid-19 w orld. ho w e v er, pr edicting what this w orld will l ook lik e is n

2、ot easy . w e c an be r easonabl y sur e that the w orld will not simpl y r e v ert back to the way it was bef or e the crisis, but what will be diff er ent? the pr oblem with answ ering this ques tion is that r ec ent his tory does not pr ovide us with any points of r ef er enc e to l earn fr om. t

3、he w orld has simpl y ne v er f ac ed a crisis lik e this one bef or e. and y et, whil e it may not be pos sibl e to pr edict the pos t co vid-19 landsc ape, it is s till pos sibl e to plan f or it. sc enario planning is a t ool designed to help or ganizations plan f or uncert ain futures. it has be

4、en used e xt ensiv el y by or ganizations whose perf ormanc e is vulner abl e to major ec onomic, social, politic al, and envir onment al shifts, such as the oil and gas indus try . co vid-19 has plac ed all sector s within this c ont e xt of uncert ainty, r equiring them to think and plan in ne w w

5、ays. sc enarios do not att empt to pr edict the futur e, but r ather identify a set of pos sibl e futur e s t at es. the y f ocus on the e xt ernal driving f or c es o v er which individual or ganizations hav e littl e or no c ontrol. sc enarios ar e both plausibl e and chall enging. or ganizations

6、benefit fr om sc enario planning by imagining ho w the y might c ompete in each sc enario. this pr oc es s helps them widen their thinking ar ound pos sibl e r esponses and out c omes. f or e xampl e, some r esponses may not hav e been c onsider ed if the sc enario planning pr oc es s hadnt been f o

7、ll o w ed. other r esponses become cl ear er and mor e obvious as the y ar e identified acr os s multipl e scenarios. in this r eport, w e hav e cr eat ed a set of plausibl e sc enarios f or the w orld aft er co vid-19, and pr ovided guidelines f or ho w these sc enarios c an be used in a w orkshop

8、f ormat to help pr epar e f or a v ery uncert ain futur e. sc enario planning w orkshops ar e r el e v ant f or or ganizations wishing to de v el op pr oactiv e s tr at egies f or dealing with the pandemic. f act or s influencing a pos t-c o vid - 19 futur e among the many f act or s impacting the p

9、os t-c o vid-19 landsc ape, w e hav e identified thr ee that, in our opinion, will cr eat e the gr eat es t impact and unc ert aint y . scenario planning f or a post -co vid- 19 w orld f ac t o r 1: virus l ongevit y ho w l ong bef or e vir al inf ections and deaths sl o w do wn t o the point wher e

10、 isolation policies c an be lift ed? f a cto r 2 : gl ob al mindset ho w will peopl e s vie ws of social, ec onomic, and political boundaries be impact ed by the virus? f ac t o r 3: digit al adop tion ho w will c onsumer s r eact t o digital t ools and t echnol ogies that hav e emer ged because of

11、the virus? virus longe vity ho w l ong bef or e vir al inf ections and deaths sl o w do wn t o the point wher e isolation policies c an be lift ed? short-t erm impact one pot ential out c ome is that the spr ead of co vid-19 f oll o ws a similar patt ern to china, japan, and south kor ea wher e the

12、virus r eaches its peak quickl y, but also dis sipat es quickl y . whil e the virus does not disappear, the mas sive scal e of inf ections and deaths f ades away in a f e w months. aft er se v er e disruption in q1 2021, many parts of the w orld ar e r eady to r eopen their bor der s and r eturn to

13、a ne w normal. a mas sive gl obal eff ort to de v el op pr e v ent ativ e measur es, such as v ac cines, and tr eatment options r esults in multipl e options to r educ e the impact and spr ead of the virus. many c ountries in eas t and south-eas t asia r elax isolation r equir ements, busines ses r

14、es t art, and bor der s r eopen by the end of may 2021. mos t of eur ope r eopens by the end of june, including a full r eins t at ement of unrestrict ed tr av el within the schengen ar ea. north americ a c omes back online by labour day . some pock ets of co vid-19 r emain in the de v el oping w or

15、ld thr ough the end of q3, but almos t all co vid-19 r estrictions ar e lift ed gl oball y by the beginning of q4 2021. long-t erm impact another out c ome sees co vid-19 linger acr os s the w orld f or at l eas t a y ea r . the att empt by many c ountries t o flatt en the curv e f ails, and inf ect

16、ions and deaths c ontinue to gr o w and spr ead unabat ed. whil e the de v el oped w orld s truggl es to maintain c ontr ol of the virus, the de v el oping w orld is o v errun with inf ections and deaths. a mut ated v er sion of the virus that was fir s t identified in br azil sho ws r esis t anc e

17、to ne wl y de v el oped tr eatments. despit e a mas siv e mobilization of scientific r esour c es, earl y v accines f ail to pr e v ent the virus. countries that surviv ed the initial wav e of inf ection, lik e china, south kor ea and japan, see a sec ond wav e of the mut ated virus appear that is e

18、 v en mor e deadl y than the fir s t. bor der s and non-essential busines ses r emain cl osed acr os s mos t of the w orld. in this out c ome, the gl obal l ock do wn r emains until at l eas t the fir s t quart er of 2021. scenario planning f or a post -co vid- 19 w orld the virus dis sipat es withi

19、n a f e w months and isolation policies ar e lift ed quickl y inf ections and deaths c ontinue f or at l eas t a y ear and isolation policies r emain in plac e indefinit el y shor t - term imp ac t l ong- term imp ac t ho w will peopl e s vie ws of social, ec onomic, and political boundaries be impa

20、ct ed by the virus? gl obal ac c ept ance in one out c ome, the gl obalization of tr ade and tr av el picks up unabat ed onc e the immediat e eff ects of the virus subside. the co vid-19 c oor dination chall enges betw een nations and r egions point to a need f or cl oser gl obal alignment. many peo

21、pl e r ealize that if information, know-ho w, and critic al infrastructur e, lik e medic al equipment, had been shar ed earlier and mor e eff ectiv el y, f ar f e w er peopl e w ould hav e died acr os s the w orld. this r ealization l eads to the es t ablishment of s tr onger gl obal ins titutions t

22、o pursue the gl obal c ommon good. gl obal suppl y chains ar e r e-s t art ed and tr ade r out es ar e quickl y r e-es t ablished. ne w tr ade deals betw een c ountries and r egions ar e quickl y negotiat ed and r atified. with barrier s being l o w er ed and bor der c ontr ols w eak ened, peopl e f

23、 eel fr ee to tr av el and liv e in other parts of the w orld. t r av el is cus t omary, and e v en though virus br eak-outs oc cur, ther e is enough medic al c apacity to identify and c ont ain episodes, and to enabl e individuals r ec o v er quickl y no matt er wher e the y tr av el t o. co vid-19

24、 is seen as a harbinger of cl oser gl obal social, ec onomic, and envir onment al c ooper ation. gl obal r ejection in another out c ome, the fr agment ed r esponse to co vid-19 and the f ailur e to s top the virus spr ead l ead to a deep dis trus t among diff er ent parts of the w orld. a multi-nat

25、ional blame game is ignit ed as c ountries att empt to shift the r esponsibility f or the inf ections and deaths to someone else. when bor der s do r eopen, the y ar e l es s fr ee than bef or e. dis trus t of china, the us, and russia deepens gl oball y, and each withdraws partiall y int o its own

26、bor der s, l eaving a gl obal l eader ship v acuum. regional allianc es, lik e the eu and asean s t art to w eak en and fr agment. p eopl e ar e shock ed by the oppr es sive r eaction to the virus in some c ountries, and become l es s c omfort abl e living and w orking abr oad. nationalism gr o ws a

27、cr os s the w orld as c ountries r ealize that gl obalization has made them def enc el es s agains t a gl obal pandemic lik e co vid-19. gl obal mindset scenario planning f or a post -co vid- 19 w orld 9 p eopl e see the v alue of a gl obal r esponse t o the virus and seek t o incr ease c oor dinati

28、on acr os s the w orl d p eopl e become deepl y sk eptic al and dis trus tful of other countries and r etr eat t o a mor e f amiliar and l oc al wa y of living gl ob al ac cep t ance gl ob al re jec tion digit al adoption ho w will c onsumer s r eact t o digit al t ools and t echnol ogies that hav e

29、 emer ged because of the virus? digit al ac c el er ation in one out c ome, co vid-19 initiat es a sur ge in the de v el opment and usage of ne w digit al t echnol ogies. the r equir ement to w ork and socialize via t echnol ogy pulls t echnol ogy sk eptics and luddit es int o the information age. v

30、ideo c onf er encing solutions become mains tr eam f or w ork and pl easur e. softwar e v endor s mak e sur e that all pr ogr ams and apps w ork at any time, fr om anywher e. with r estrictions on physic al c ol oc ation, ne w f orms of ent ert ainment ar e de v el oped that ar e c ompl et el y t ec

31、hnol ogy-mediat ed. physic al r estrictions e v erywhere ar e c ompensat ed in part by ne w adv anc es in digit al t echnol ogy . de v el oping c ountries get ac c es s to cheaper smart devic es and infrastructur e, so that peopl e acr os s the w orld become ac cus t omed to living, w orking, and so

32、cializing with t echnol ogy . digit al sk epticism in another out c ome, the push to use digit al t echnol ogies mor e and mor e f or living and w orking l eads to a backlash. f or c orpor at e- type w ork wher e inv es tments c an be made in r eliability, the t echnol ogy does enabl e pr oductivity

33、 . ho w e v er, f or "hav e nots' or in per sonal use, ther e is deep sk epticism of surv eillanc e, c ontr ol, and ultimat el y a fundament al mis trus t of the mos t pr oductiv e digit al t ools by c onsumer s and civic society at lar ge. ther e is c onsider abl e activism to l obby f or

34、l es s intrusion, but it s uncl ear ho w the hold of the monopolis tic c ompanies that c ontr ol k e y digit al t echnol ogies c an be r educ ed. surv eillanc e measures impl ement ed by go v ernments and lar ge c orpor ations to k eep tr ack of the virus l ead to a deep mis trus t of t echnol ogy .

35、 p eopl e s till use digit al t echnol ogies, but begin to r esent the intrusion that the y plac e on their liv es, whil e c alls f or priv acy rights and the fr eedom to be l eft al one become l oude r . scenario planning f or a post -co vid- 19 w orld 11 the virus initiat es a w av e of inno v ati

36、on and adoption of ne w digit al t echnol ogies digit al sk epticism set s in and peopl e turn awa y fr om digit al t echnol ogies digit al ac celera tion digit al skep ticism what will the pos t-c o vid - 19 futur e l ook lik e? the int erpla y of the thr ee f act or s w e sel ect ed vir al l onge

37、vit y , gl obal mindset and digit al adoption c an l ead t o r emark abl y differ ent futur e w orl ds. among the pos sibl e w orl ds emer ging fr om the c ombination of the thr ee f act or s, w e de v el oped f our sc enarios that chall enge our thinking, ques tion our as sumptions, and help us thi

38、nk br oadl y about the futur e. the choic e w as based on an att empt t o pr ovide plausibl e, no v el, y et div er gent vie ws on ho w the pos t-c o vid - 19 w orl d might l ook, r ather than on ho w pr obabl e each sc enario might be. gl obal mark etplac e short-t erm virus l onge vity gl obal ac c ept anc e digit al ac c el er