网络课程异军突起

1、网络课程异军突起An army of new online courses is scaring the wits out of traditional uni versities. But can they find a viable bus in ess model?浩浩荡荡的新型网络课程对传统大学造成了不小的威胁，它能发展出可行的商 业模式吗?DOTCOM mania was slow in coming to higher education, but now it has the venerable industry firmly in its grip. Since the lau

2、nch early last year of Udacity and Coursera, two SiliconValley start-upsofferi ngfree educati onthrough MOOCs, massive ope n on li necourses, the ivory towers of academia have been shaken to their foundations.University brands built in some cases over centurieshave bee n forced to con templatethe po

3、ssibility that in formatio ntech no logy will rapidly make their existi ng bus in ess model obsolete.Mean while, the MOOCs have multiplied in nu mber , resources and stude nt recruitme nt without yet hav ing figured out a bus in ess model of their own.网络狂热在教育界一直波澜不兴，不过最近网络已征服这一神圣的行业。随着 去年上半年硅谷两家新秀 U

4、dacity和Coursera通过MOOC （大规模网络公 开课平台）开通免费在线课程，象牙塔内学术权威的地位遭到了动摇。几个世 纪以来声名远扬的大学也开始心里打鼓，担心信息技术会很快造成其现行商业 模式过时。另外，在没有自身商业模式的情况下，MOOC在数量、资源和招生人数上已翻了好几番。Besides providi ng on li ne courses to their own （ge nerally fee-pay ing） stude nts, uni versities have felt obliged to join the MOOC revoluti on to avoid

5、being guillotined by it. Coursera has formed partnerships with 83 universities and colleges around the world, including many of America s top-tier institutions.除了为本学校的学生提供在线课程外（通常情况下须付费），各个大学觉得自己有义务加入MOOC变革的阵营，从而避免被逼上绝路。Coursera已经与来 自世界各地的83所大学建立合作关系，其中包括美国的不少顶尖学府。EdX, a non -profit MOOC provider fo

6、u nded in May 2012 by HarvardUn iversityand the MassachusettsIn stituteof Tech no logyandbacked with $60m of their money,is now a consortium of 28institutions,the most recent joiner being the IndianInstitute ofTech no logy in Mumbai. Led by the Ope n Un iversity, which pion eered distance-learning i

7、n the 1970s, FutureLearn,a consortium of 21British, one Irish and one Australia nuni versity,plus othereducational bodies, will start offering MOOCs later this year. But Oxford and Cambridge remai n aloof, refus ing to join what a seniorOxford figure fears may be a“ lemming-like rush ” into MOOCs.Ed

8、X是一家非盈利性 MOOC供应商，由哈佛大学和麻省理工学院出资 6000 美元于2012年5月成立。如今它已发展成包括28个学校在内的联合体，最新成 员是印度孟买的技术学院。开放式大学是上世纪90年代远程教育的先驱，在其 带领下由21所英国大学、一所爱尔兰大学和一所澳大利亚大学组成的 FutureLearn将于今年下半年开始提供开放式课程。但是牛津和剑桥仍然敬而远之，剑桥的一位权威人士称，他们不想“趋之若鹜”。On July 10th Coursera said it had raised ano ther $43m in ven ture capital, on top of the $22

9、m it banked last year. Although itsenro Ime nts have soared, and now exceed 4m stude nts, this is a huge leap of faith by inv estors that the firm can develop a viable bus in ess model. The new money should allow Coursera to build on any advantage it has from being a first mover among a rapidly grow

10、ing nu mber of MOOC providers.“ It is somewhat en terta ining to watchthe number of people jumping on board, ” says Daphne Koller, a Stanford professor and co-founder of Coursera. She expects it to become one of a “very small number of dominant players” .7月10日Coursera发布消息，在去年2200万美元存款的基础上，它又通过风 投募集到

11、4300万美元。它的招生人数也突飞猛进，如今已突破400万，这也使 得投资者信心猛增，认为该公司能够发展出可行的商业模式。Coursera 可以借助这笔新款项，充分发挥任何一个有利条件，在迅速增加的MOOC供应商中抢占先机。斯坦福大学教授、Coursera创始人之一的Daphne Koller 说， 看到越来越多的人参与进来可谓乐在其中。她希望 Coursera成为凤毛麟角的 主导型玩家。The in dustry has similar n etwork econo mics to Amaz on, eBay and Google, says Ms Koller , in that“ con

12、tent producers go to where mostcon sumers are, and con sumers go to where the most content is.”Simon Nels on, the chief executive of FutureLear n, disagrees.“Anyone who thinks the rules of engagement have already been written by the existing players is massively underestimating the pote ntial of the

13、 tech no logy,” he says.Daph ne Koller 称这一行业与亚马逊、易贝和谷歌等网购经济类似，共同点在 于“供应商逐消费者而居，消费者逐产品而居”。不过 FutureLearn 的首席 执行官Simon Nelson 不认同这一观点。他认为“如果有人认为网络课程的游 戏规则已被现存行业总结出来，那他就大大低估了网络技术的潜力”。Certai nly, there is ple nty of experime ntati on with bus in ess models taking place. The MOOCs themselves may be free,

14、 but those beh ind them think there will be ple nty of reve nue opport un ities. Coursera has started charg ing to provide certificates for those who complete its courses and want proof, perhaps for a future employer. It is alsostarting to license course materials to universities that want to beef u

15、p their existing offering. However , it has abandoned for now attempts to help firms recruit employees from among Coursera stude nts, because cateri ng to the differe nt n eeds of each employer was “not a scalable model ” , says Ms Koller .自然，适用的商业模式还需要大量实验。网络课程是免费的，不过幕后经营者 认为并不缺乏赚钱的机会。Coursera 已开始向

16、修完全部课程并需要证明材料 （日后找工作时或许用得上）的学员提供收费证书。还有些大学想要充实现行 课程，Coursera就为其课程教材颁发许可证。不过Coursera暂时不与公司合作招聘网络课程学员，Daph ne Koller解释说，雇主对雇员的要求千差万别， “没有可缩放的模型”来满足他们的不同要求。For Udacity, in contrast, working with companies to train existing andfuture employees is now the heart of its bus in ess model. It has tie-ups wit

17、h several firms, includingGoogle. It recently formed apartnership with AT&T, along with Georgia Tech, to offer a master sdegree in computerscienee.Course materials will be free, butstudents will pay around $7,000 for tuition. EdX is taking yet another tack, selli ng its MOOC tech no logy to uni vers

18、ities like Sta nford, both to create their own MOOC offeri ngs and to make physically atte nding uni versity more attractive, by augme nting exist ing teachi ng.与之相反，Udacity的核心商业模式就是与公司合作，培训现任和未来的职员。 它与若干公司建立了联系，其中包括谷歌。最近它与AT&T和乔治亚理工大学建立了合作关系，提供计算机科学专业的硕士学位。课程教材是免费的，不过 学员要支付约7000美元的学费。EdX则采取另一种套路，它将

19、MOOC技术卖 给斯坦福等大学，这样既能开设自己的 MOOC网络课程，又能通过充实现行 教学增强实体大学的吸引力。This lecture is brought to you by这堂课来自Alison, an Irish provider of free, mostly vocational education founded in 2007, before MOOCs got their n ame, is gen erat ing ple nty of reve nue by selli ng advertis ing on its site.“ Ads propelled radio

20、andTV, why not education? There is a lot of misplaced snobbery in education about advertising,” says Mike Feerick, Alison s founder . 爱尔兰网络课程（多为职业教育）供应商Alison成立于2007年，那时MOOC 尚未得名。Alison通过在网站上展播广告赚得盆满钵满。 Alison创始人Mike Feerick称，“广告促进了广播和电视的发展，教育为何不能分一杯羹呢？教育不该对广告摆臭架子”。Ano ther importa nt category of MO

21、OC providers are publishers, says Rob Lytle of the Parthenon Group, a consultancy. He says firms like Pears on（part-ow nerof The Econo mist）that run educati onalbus in esses such as textbook-publish ing may thrive by offeri ng free MOOCs as a way to get people to buy their related paid content.咨询机构P

22、arthenon 集团的Rob Lytle说，MOOC供应商的另一种重要类别 是出版商。他说经营教育类业务（如出版教材）、类似Pears on （持有经济 学人部分股权）这样的公司，通过提供网络课程，促使消费者购买相关教材， 一定会蓬勃发展。Besides the un certa intyover which bus in essmodel, if any, willproduce profits, there is disagreeme nt over how big the market willbe. Some see a zero- or n egative-sum game, in

23、 which cheap on li ne providers radically reduce the cost of higher educationand drivemany traditional institutions to the wall. Others believe this effectwill be dwarfed by the dramaticin creasein access to highereducation that the MOOCs will brin g.就算找到合适的商业模式顺利盈利，这一市场的规模大小仍然存在争议。有些 人认为会出现零和甚至负和的局

24、面，廉价的网课造成高等教育成本跳楼，将很 多传统大学逼到绝路。其他人则认为MOOC会显著拓展接受高等教育的途径， 这样一来负面影响就不值一提。Mr Feerick predicts that the market will be commoditised, spelli ng trouble for many in stituti ons. But Anant Agarwal, the boss of EdX, reckons the MOOC providers will be more like online airline-booking services, expa nding the

25、 market by impro ving the customer experienee.SebastianThrun, Udacity s co-founder , thinks theeffect will be similar in magnitude to what the creation of cinema did to dema nd for staged ficti on: he predicts a tenfold in crease in the market for higher educati on.Feerick预测这一市场将被商品化，使很多大学陷入被动。不过EdX

26、的老板Anant Agarwal 认为，MOOC的供应商就像网络机票预订服务一样，通过改 善用户体验来拓展市场。Udacity的联合创始人Sebastian Thrun则认为网 络课程的作用就像电影院对舞台剧的影响一样，他预测高等教育市场的规模将 扩大十倍Sceptics point to the MOOCshigh drop-out rates, which in somecases exceed 90%. But Coursera and Udacity both insist that this reflects the differentexpectationsof consumers

27、of free products,who can browse costlessly. Both firms have now studied drop-outrates forthosestude ntswho start with the statedinten ti onoffin ishi ng,and found that the vast majority of themcompletethecourses.怀疑派指出MOOC提高了辍学率，在一些案例中甚至超过90%。不过Coursera和Udacity都坚持这种情况反映了消费者对免费产品的不同预期， 他们可以分文不花浏览相关课程。根据学员的修课意向，两家公司在课程伊始 就跟踪调查学员的退学率，结果他们发现绝大多数学员修满了课程。Besides LearnCapital, a Silicon Valley venture firm, and the WorldBank s InternationalFinanceCorporation,the participants inCoursera s $43m fund-raising included Laureate, an operator of for-profituniversities.Doug