BOT项目风险多属性群决策识别方法

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2、 ?/? 111 ? 99999999q 999999999999999999999999999999999999 ?99?99?9?99?9?9?9?99? 9999， 9999?9999999?99?99 ?9?99?9?99?9?9?999 9?9?99999?9?9?9?99 99999999 99999999,?, ?b0t?,?fl2? 99999?999999?99?99?9?9?9?99?99?99?999999999999999?999? 99?9?99?99?9?999?9999, 9999999999 99999999999? 9999999999999999999999

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5、, 9 ?(1976?),?,?,?,? ?:bot?50?:bot?,? ?,?ak?:?k=(?kl,?k2,?,? ?,?km)?vk,?ak?bjl 15? ?kvj=kk(vlj,v2j,?k,vmj),?,?ak?ak? ?kvj?al?lvj?bj?:?m:n?kj=?kkiuij?(6)?ki= l(vj?lvj)j= 1 ?ak?:?k=(?k 1 ,cj(k,l)=?( 1 )nn?kk2,?,?kn)? ?l(vj?kvj)?(vj?lvj)j=lj=l?kj,?n?k?bj?:ej=?cj(k,l )1,? ?ak?l=lh?bj?13?j=?(? ?kkjj)?(7)

6、k=lh?kkj=tej?j?,?ej?(2)t=l?ak? ?:?k=(?kl,?k2,?,?kn)2?bj? ?:uj?bot?,?n=(u?5?al?a2?a5?,? ?,? ij,u2j,?,umj),uij=?kvijn?kij=k= 1 ? ?mklv?,?bl?b2?ij ijl,?kj=? ?kij,?ak?i=l?bj?b7?,? ?:n?,?cl?c2?c3?kj=?kj?kj?(3)? ,?k二 1 ?ak?k=(?k?,?l ,?k2 ,?,?kn)?,?ak?bj?:?7645768:hvl = 5768498;?kj=?kj(l-?kj)l-?k?kjj?(4)87

7、69788k=l?ak?:?k= (?kl,?k2,777654689,?kv2=4777586;n)?114?9869779? ?,?7535758? ?v3=69510697;?10859897,?,? ?,?5736869?,? ?v4=65794910;?78410767?14-15a6723548k,?c i?kri:nv5=4577696?kri=k-?(gijlnkgij)ln(n);j=7571068101 n?(l)?(2) ?kkgij=vij?kvij?j=l?:?kak? ?:r=k(rl,?l=(01201,01203,01202,01201,01200,?krm)?

8、ak,?ci? ?:01202,01202);m?2=(01200,01202,01201,01201,01202,ki=(l k-ri)?(l k-rt)?(5)t= 10 119&o 1200);51 ? ?28?9?3=(01201,01198,01202,01199,01202,71011,810 00)?01200,01202);?(7)?:?4=(01198,01200,01198,01200,0 1199,? 1 =61534;?2=61689;?3=51134;?4=01200,01198);71405;?5=61205;?6=7140 1 ;?7=71969?5=(0

9、1201,01198,01198,01198,01198, ?:b7>b4>b 6>b2>bl& gt;01199,01199)?b5 >b3?(3)? ?99?9?99?99?99?99999?9 99999999?99?9?999.99?99?9?99? 99?9?999999?99999?999?99?,? 1=(01062,01056,01113,01083,01135,?01071,01086);?2=3? ?(01188,01097,01210,01183,01058,01321,01200);?bot?

10、 ?3=(01266,01306,01194,01217,01231,?,?,? ?01214,01143);?4=(01281,01222,0 1210,()1233,()1231,?,?01179,01314);? ?,?5=(01203,01319,01274,01283,01346,?() 1214,01257)?(4)?:? 1=(01235, 01239,01223,01230,01217|lj?robertlktlrisksandguaranteesinbottender|j|.,jour nalofconstructionengineeringandmanagement,012

11、34,01230);?21995,121(2):18321881 =(01203,01228,01198,01205,01237,2?salmanafm,skibniewskimj,bashai1bot0116&01200)畀恰1)山呼1110血厅011&咚6233心11101厲112卩口6*卩？?3=(01184,011 71,01203,01195,01194, journalofconstructionengineeringandmanagement,011972007,13 3(1):502631,01216);?4=(01 3?xenidisy,angelidesdl

12、thelegalrisksinbuild2op2 178,01194,01196,01192,01191,erate2transferprojectsj 1 joumalofconstructionre20120 6,01169);?search,2005,6(2):273229215=(01200,01168,01179,01178,01161,4?xenidis y, angelidesd1 thefinancialrisksinbuild201196,01184)?operate2transferprojects jlconstructionmanagement?(5)?:andecon

13、omics,20 05,23(4):43124411?1 =5?zayedtm,changlm 1 prototypemodelforbuild2(013333 ,013326,01334 l);?2operate2transferriskassessmentjj uournalofmanage2=(013327,013333,013340);?mentinengineering,2002,18(1):721613=(013326,013334,013340);6?d avidak1 riskmodelinginenergycontractsbetween?4=(013330,013330,0

14、13340);hostutil itiesandbotplantinvestorsjlieeetransac2?5=(013308,013346tionenergycon version, 1996,11(12):35923661,013346)?(6)?7?yang wh,daidslconcessiondecisionmodelofbot?projectsbasedonarealoptionsapproachc 1 proc 113th:?conflmanagementscienceandengineering,icmse?06,l =(61669,61667,5 1333,71334,6

15、1002,lille,france,2007:3072312171666,81000);8?chiaran,garvin mj,vecerj1 valuingsimple?2=(61668multiple2exerciserealoptionsininfrastructureproj ect|j.,71001,61001,61670,61001,journaloflnfrastructuresystems,2007,13(2):972104171 666,81000);?39?huangyl,chousplvaluationoftheminimumrev2=(71669,71335 ,4133

16、5,81003,71001 ,enueguaranteeandtheoptiontoabandoninbotinfra271669,71333);str uctureprojectsj 1 constructionmanagementandeco2?4=(61001,61668,41666,81335,613 34,nomics,2006,24(4):3792389161999,81665);(?62?)?5=(51665,51662,51346,61 680,51669,52?28?9?7?breidenbachdpllifecyclecostanalysisc. aero21996,6(4

17、3):313323138.spaceandelectronicsconference, 1989,4(3):121621220. 10 ?,? 1 lcc?j 1 ?8?brookssm 1 lifecyclecostses timatesforconceptuali2?,2003(9):628.deasclaerospaceandelectronicsconference,199 6,311?1?(2):5412546.m.?:? ?,2001:9229519?millwarddgllife2cyclecosttradestudiesforhard212? ?,? 1 ?lcc?| j 1

18、nessassurance|jl trans 1 onnuclearsc ience,ieee,?,2004(3): 19721991 investmentcostmodelandsensitivefactoranalysi sonsubstationhuangruipingl,xiaying2(l lkunmingpowersupplybureau,kunming6500 00,china;21collegeofelectricalengineering,chongqinguniversity,chongqing400044,chi na)abstract:accordingtothecha

19、racteristicsofcostsofsubstationindifferentphases,thispaperu sestheanalysismethodbasedonlifecyclecosts(lcc)tocarryonthedecisionanalysisonsubsta tionconstructionllifecyclecostsofsubstationaredividedintothreeparts:investmentcost,ope rationcostandfailurecostlthecostestimationmodeloflccissetup,andthemodi

20、ficationonthe basisofruntime,annualinterestrateandinflationrateiscarriedout,aswellasthesensitivefactoran alysisltakinga220kvsubstationastheexample,itanalyzesandcomparesinte2gratedautomati csystemandgeneralprotectivesystemtoverifythevalidityandfeasibilityoftheproposedlifecycl ecostmodel 1 key words:s

21、ubstation;investmentcost;operationcost;lifecyclecost;sensitivefac toranalysis(?52?)?10?charlesyjc,liujlvaluinggovernmentalsupportll 181ininfrastructureprojectsasrealoptionsusingmonte13?,?,?lahp? ?carlosimulation| j11 constructionmanagementandeco2(?)j| 1 ? ?,2000(5):762791nomics,2006,24(5):54525541 1

22、4?,?,?,? ?ll?subprasomk,chenaleffectsofregulationon? ?j1 ?,2007,37( 15):highwaypricingandcapacitychoiceofabuild2o perate2702761transferschemejjuournalofconstructionengineering 15?,?, ?,?! ?-?andmanagement,2007,133(1):642711 ? jl?(?),200812?baucellsm,sarinrklgroupdecisionswithmul 2(s2):1172121 ltiplecriteriaj 1 managementscience,2003,49(8): 11052multiple attribute groupdecisionmethodofriskidentificationofbotprojectliuning,daidashuang,wuhaixi (schoolofmanagement,dalianuniversityoftechnology,dalianli