美国度假村运营情况概览NXPowerLite

1、resort conferencemarch 21st, 2006jan d. freitag, vpsmith travel researchagenda total us overview resort locations destination resorts condo hotels total us projectionstotal united statesestimated revenue and profitabilityyears 1999 2005plife is good !u.s. lodging industry - key statisticslatest 12 m

2、onths - january 2006 % change hotels 47,735 0.6% rooms4.4mm 0.3% occupancy63.3% 2.9% a.d.r. $91.28 5.5% revpar$57.76 8.6% room revenue$94b 9.0%total united statesroom supply/demand percent changetwelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006cyclicality clearly visible recent s/d imbalance spells o

3、pportunity0.3%3.3%total united statesoccupancy/adr percent changetwelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006divergencedivergence?if history repeats itself, strong adr gains are here to staytotal united statesoccupancy percent, average daily rate, revpartwelve month moving average 1989 to januar

4、y 2006$86.36$91.2864.9%63.3%robust occ and adr gains post 9/11str chain scalesselected chains from each segmentluxury four seasons, ritz carlton, fairmont, w hotelsupper upscale doubletree, hilton, hyatt, sheratonupscale hilton garden inn, courtyard, crowne plaza, radissonmid with f&b holiday in

5、n, ramada, best western, quality innmid no f&b comfort inn, hi express, country inns & suiteseconomy motel 6, days inn, esa, travelodge, ramada limitedchain scalessupply/demand percent changetwelve months ended january 2006business traveler drives demand for big boxeschain scalesoccupancy/ad

6、r percent change twelve months ended january 2006above inflation rate growth across all chain scaleschain scalesrevpar/room revenue percent change twelve months ended january 2006life is good!agenda total us overview resort locations destination resorts condo hotels total us projectionsresort locati

7、ons key statistics12 month moving average january 2006 % change hotels3,890-2.5% room nights214.6 m-1.8% demand 143.3 m-0.8% occupancy66.7% 1.1% adr$127.06 6.0% revpar $85.11 7.1% room rev$18.3 b 5.2%resort locationsroom supply/demand percent changetwelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006 su

8、pply increase used to be somewhat constant until 9/11-0.8%-1.8%resort locationsroom demand percent change peakstwelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006demand peaks every 48 months or does it?48 months48 months42 monthsresort locationsoccupancy/adr percent changetwelve month moving average 19

9、89 to january 2006despite decreasing occ growth, adr growth should be here to stayresort locationsoccupancy percent, average daily ratetwelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006july 1997: 69.1%occ & adr rebound after 9/11 but occ still has a way to gojuly 2001: $115jan 2006: $127jan 2006:

10、66.7%resortsday of week analysis occupancy 2003 - 2005nice increases midweek - but have weekends peaked?resortsday of week analysis adr 2003 - 2005$8 rate growth across the board a good sign for 2006resortsgroup vs. transient adr 2003 - 2005group rate growth lags transient rate growthresortsday of w

11、eek adr - group 2003 - 20052005 vs 2004: moderate daily rate growth (3%) for groupsresortsday of week adr transient2003 - 20052005 vs 2004: healthy rate increases across all days (10%)agenda total us overview resort locations destination resorts condo hotels total us projectionsdestination resort ke

12、y statistics12 month moving average january 2006 % change hotels3171.0 % room nights57.7m- 0.5 % demand 38.8 m1.2 % occupancy67.3%1.7 % adr$182.986.3 % revpar $123.148.1 % room rev $7.1 b7.6 % 0.7% of us hotel supply generates 7.6 % of us rooms revenuedestination resortsroom supply/demand percent ch

13、angetwelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006segment always attracts new supply except in the most recent past1.2%-0.5%destination resortsoccupancy/adr percent changetwelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006above 6% rate growth lasts not forever but for nowdestination resortsoccupancy

14、percent, average daily ratetwelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006still room for improvement post 9/11 in both measuresmay 1997: 70.6%july 2001: $171jan 2006: $182jan 2006: 67.3%destination resortsmonthly occupancy2000 vs. 2005in the off season, year 2000 still is the benchmark to beat76.8%

15、75.8%destination resortsmonthly adr2000 vs. 2005december rate differential still $6-$6+$14destination resortsday of week analysis occupancy 2003 - 2005strong “long weekends” (thu sat) but have fr/sat reached their peak?destination resortsday of week analysis adr 2003 - 2005second part of the cycle:

16、rate increase 04/03: 2% - rate increase 05/04: 6%agenda total us overview resort locations destination resorts condo hotels total us projectionsdefinitions condo hotel rooms:rooms placed in rental pool residences:rooms not placed in rental pooltotal u.s.summary of condotel pipeline march 2006source:

17、 str condotel pipeline, part of the str / twr / dodge construction pipeline229 projects with a total of 98,142 reported* rooms rooms are broken out as follows ( % of total): hotel rooms: 34,166 35% condo hotel rooms:48,678 50%total affecting nightly room supply: 82,844 85% non-rental residences:13,9

18、38 14% timeshare rooms: 1,360 1%* some projects have not yet reported room counts total u.s.top 10 condotel msasmarch 2006annual occupancy 2003 - 2005total us vs. condo hotels vs. destination resorts %annual adr 2003 - 2005total us vs. condo hotels vs. destination resorts $condotel:data reporting to

19、pics reporting availabilitystatic vs. fluctuating rooms available reporting rooms soldissue: owner occupied, non-revenue generating rooms reporting rooms revenuethe rule: no restatements after 120 days comp set issueschoosing a condotel in your comp set will likely do more harm than goodagenda total

20、 us overview resort locations destination resorts condo hotels total us projectionslodging industry issues supply growth remains benign construction costs, condo conversions higher operating costs insurance, labor, amenities, energy solid demand growth degrees of good, some not so good changing dema

21、nd experience travel, baby boomers occupancy growth slows varies widely by market aggressive pricing could double cpi, control of internet pricing transportation problems troubled airlines, gasoline, infrastructure higher industry profits more difficult for each property global issues terrorism, bird flu, currency fluctuations outlo