暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand课件

1、暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand 管理学院 school of management 佟瑞 edward tong， mpm，mba暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand2where we are now暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand3estimating projects estimating the process of forecasting or approximating the time and cost of completing pr

2、oject deliverables. the task of balancing expectations of stakeholders and need for control while the project is implemented. types of estimates top-down (macro) estimates: analogy, group consensus, or mathematical relationships bottom-up (micro) estimates: estimates of elements of the work breakdow

3、n structure暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand4why estimating time and cost are importantexhibit 5.1 to support good decisions. to schedule work. to determine how long the project should take and its cost. to determine whether the project is worth doing. to develop cash flow needs. to determin

4、e how well the project is progressing. to develop time-phased budgets and establish the project baseline.暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand5factors influencing the quality of estimatesquality of estimatesprojectdurationpeopleproject structure and organizationpaddingestimatesorganizationcultur

5、eother (nonproject)factorsplanning horizon暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand6estimating guidelines for times, costs, and resourceshave people familiar with the tasks make the estimate.use several people to make estimates.base estimates on normal conditions, efficient methods, and a normal lev

6、el of resources.use consistent time units in estimating task times.treat each task as independent, dont aggregate.dont make allowances for contingencies.adding a risk assessment helps avoid surprises to stakeholders.暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand7top-down versus bottom-up estimating top-d

7、own estimates are usually are derived from someone who uses experience and/or information to determine the project duration and total cost. are made by top managers who have little knowledge of the processes used to complete the project. bottom-up approach can serve as a check on cost elements in th

8、e wbs by rolling up the work packages and associated cost accounts to major deliverables at the work package level.暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand8top-down versus bottom-up estimatingtable 5.1conditions for preferring top-down or bottom-up time and cost estimatescondition macro estimates m

9、icro estimatesstrategic decision making x cost and time important xhigh uncertainty xinternal, small project xfixed-price contract xcustomer wants details xunstable scope x暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand9estimating projects: preferred approach make rough top-down estimates. develop the wbs

10、/obs. make bottom-up estimates. develop schedules and budgets. reconcile differences between top-down and bottom-up estimates暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand10top-down approaches for estimating project times and costs consensus methods ratio methods apportion method function point methods f

11、or software and system projects learning curvesproject estimatetimescosts暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand11apportion method of allocating project costs using the work breakdown structurefigure 5.1暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand12simplified basic function point count process for a

12、prospective project or deliverabletable 5.2暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand13example: function point count methodtable 5.3暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand14bottom-up approaches for estimating project times and costs template methods parametric procedures applied to specific tasks r

13、ange estimates for the wbs work packages phase estimating: a hybrid暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand15support cost estimate worksheetfigure 5.2暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand16phase estimating over product life cyclefigure 5.3暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand17top-down and

14、bottom-up estimatesfigure 5.4暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand18level of detail level of detail is different for different levels of management. level of detail in the wbs varies with the complexity of the project. excessive detail is costly. fosters a focus on departmental outcomes creates

15、unproductive paperwork insufficient detail is costly. lack of focus on goals wasted effort on nonessential activities暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand19types of costs direct costs costs that are clearly chargeable to a specific work package. labor, materials, equipment, and other direct (pro

16、ject) overhead costs costs incurred that are directly tied to an identifiable project deliverable or work package. salary, rents, supplies, specialized machinery general and administrative overhead costs organization costs indirectly linked to a specific package that are apportioned to the project暨南

17、大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand20contract bid summary costsfigure 5.5 direct costs $80,000 direct overhead $20,000 total direct costs $100,000 g&a overhead (20%) $20,000 total costs $120,000 profit (20%) $24,000 total bid $144,000 暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand21three views of

18、 costfigure 5.6暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand22refining estimates reasons for adjusting estimates interaction costs are hidden in estimates. normal conditions do not apply. things go wrong on projects. changes in project scope and plans. adjusting estimates time and cost estimates of spec

19、ific activities are adjusted as the risks, resources, and situation particulars become more clearly defined.暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand23creating a database for estimatingfigure 5.7暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand24key termsapportionment methodsbottom-up estimatescontingency f

20、undsdelphi methoddirect costsfunction pointslearning curvesoverhead costspadding estimatesphase estimatingrange estimatingratio methodstemplate methodtime and cost databases暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand25wbs figuretable 5.4暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand26learning curves unit v

21、aluestable a5.1暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand27learning curves cumulative valuestable a5.2暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand1the process of forecasting or approximating the time and cost of completing project deliverables is called c a. budgetingb. predictingc. estimatingd. plannin

22、ge. guesstimating暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand2in practice, estimating processes are frequently classified as aa. top down/bottom upb. rough/polishedc. precise/order of magnituded. draft/finale. both a and b are correct暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand3a typical statement in actu

23、al practice is that estimates should have a probability of being met _ of the time. ca. 100%b. 98%c. 95%d. 90%e. 80%暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand4a good starting point for developing time and cost estimates is aa. past experienceb. work packagesc. task analysisd. time and motion studiese

24、. work breakdown structure暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand5 which of the following is not one of the factors that need to be considered to improve quality of estimates for project times and costs? da. planning horizonb. peoplec. padding estimatesd. profite. project structure暨南大学项目管理chapter5

25、estimatingprojecttimesand6ed is looking over the actual results of projects and comparing them to what was estimated. he notices that projects that took six months or longer to complete were noticeably more off the estimates. which of the following factors is he recognizing? ba. padding estimatesb.

26、planning horizonc. project structured. peoplee. organization culture暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand7janet is forecasting how much money her department needs to support a new project. she estimates that two people and $25,000 in expenses will cover her needs. because management typically in

27、sists on reducing forecasts by 20 percent, she increases her estimates to allow for that reduction. which of the following factors is illustrated in this situation? a a. padding estimatesb. planning horizonc. project structured. peoplee. organization culture暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand8

28、 which of the following is a good condition for top-down estimating? da. cost and time importantb. fixed price contractc. customer wants detailsd. internal, small projecte. all of these are good conditions for top-down estimating暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand9which of the following is a g

29、ood condition for bottom-up estimating? ca. strategic decision makingb. internal, small projectc. fixed price contractd. high uncertaintye. both c and d are good conditions for bottom-up estimating暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand10top-down estimates are most likely to occur during the _ pha

30、se. aa. conceptb. planningc. executiond. deliverye. all of these are equally likely暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand11_ estimates are most likely to use low cost, efficient methods. da. apportionb. ratioc. top-downd. bottom-upe. all of these are equally likely暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojec

31、ttimesand12 which of the following methods is not considered a top-down approach to estimating project time and cost? ba. ratiob. templatec. apportiond. function pointe. learning curve暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand13jose is forecasting project time and cost for constructing a new building

32、 by multiplying the total square footage by a given dollar amount. which of the following methods is he using? aa. ratiob. templatec. apportiond. function pointe. learning curve暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand14sean is forecasting the time and cost of developing a customized software progra

33、m by looking at the number of inputs, outputs, inquires, files, and interfaces. which of the following methods is he using? da. ratiob. templatec. apportiond. function pointe. learning curve暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand15laura is forecasting the time and cost of developing an intranet fo

34、r a new customer. her department has completed six such intranets for customers during the last two years. although the proposed system is about the same size as the others she estimates that it will take about 10 percent less time and money. which of the following methods is she using? ea. ratiob.

35、templatec. apportiond. function pointe. learning curve暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand16 learning curves are more likely to apply in situations where most of the costs are ba. materialsb. laborc. overheadd. evenly spread over materials, labor, and overheade. all of these are equally likely

36、situations for learning curves暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand17which of the following is not one of the bottom-up approaches to estimating project time and cost? a. parametric procedures applied to specific tasksb. estimates for the wbs work packages cc. learning curved. template methode.

37、all of these are bottom-up approaches暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand18the approach that begins with a top-down estimate for the project and then refines estimates as the project is implemented is known as _ method. da. function pointb. templatec. learning curved. phase estimatinge. apporti

38、on暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand19which of the following would be the best method for projects where the final product is not known and the uncertainty is very large? da. function pointb. templatec. learning curved. phase estimatinge. apportion暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand20th

39、e accuracy of top-down estimates will typically be in the range of ca. minus 50% to plus 50%b. minus 0% to plus 75%c. minus 20% to plus 60%d. minus 35% to plus 35%e. minus 10% to plus 30%暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand21 the accuracy of bottom-up estimates will typically be in the range of

40、 ea. minus 50% to plus 50%b. minus 0% to plus 75%c. minus 20% to plus 60%d. minus 35% to plus 35%e. minus 10% to plus 30%暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand22 the cost to prepare bottom-up estimates will typically run how much more than the costs to prepare the top-down estimates? ca. about th

41、e sameb. about twice as muchc. about three times as muchd. about four times as muche. about five times as much暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand23typical kinds of costs found in a project include ea. direct costsb. project overhead costsc. general and administrative costsd. only a and b are i

42、ncludede. a, b, and c are all included暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand24project costs are typically viewed from all of the following except: ba. scheduledb. sunkc. actuald. committede. all of these are correct暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand25 which of the following would be consid

43、ered a direct project cost? ea. laborb. materialsc. equipmentd. both a and b are direct costse. a, b, and c are all considered direct costs暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand26which of the following is not one of the recommended guidelines for developing useful work package estimates? a. estim

44、ates should be made by those responsible for the work db. use several people to estimate the same workc. estimates should be based on normal conditionsd. estimates should include a normal level of contingencye. estimates should be independent of other projects暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesan

45、d27companies like boeing, kodak, and ibm are using which of the following for improving the estimating process? da. adjusting estimates based on individual forecasting abilitiesb. benchmarking using the experience of other companiesc. using time and motion studiesd. creating historical databases of

46、previous projectse. all of these are correct暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand28reasons why estimating time and cost are important include all of the following except: ea. to schedule workb. to determine how long the project should take and costc. to develop cash flow needsd. to determine how

47、 well the project is progressinge. all of the above are valid reasons暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand29in a learning curve, the improvement ratio is applied to which of the following items? ba. direct materialsb. direct laborc. overheadd. both a and b are correcte. a, b, and c are all correct暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesand30the bottom-up approach for estimating times and costs that uses costs from past projects that were similar to the current project is known as: ba. detailed wbs work package estimatesb. template methodc. function point methodd. time-phased cost es