财务报表分析与证券投资课件

1、财务报表分析与证券投资1财务报表分析与证券投资Guohua JiangAssociate Professor of AccountingGuanghua School of ManagementPeking University财务报表分析与证券投资2The Father of Accounting-Luca Pacioli (1445-1517)nHe wrote a famous mathematics booknIn one chapter he invented double-entry accounting systemnHe taught Leonardo Da Vinci per

2、spective and proportionality. The knowledge was used to paint “the Last Supper”财务报表分析与证券投资3n学过财务报表分析课程的请举手财务报表分析与证券投资4Dow Jones Industrial Average 1930-2002财务报表分析与证券投资5DJIA, NASDAQ 1990-200202000400060008000100001200014000财务报表分析与证券投资6Back to Square One: DJIA 1998-200275008000850090009500100001050011

3、0001150012000财务报表分析与证券投资7D or Dot.bomb-NASDAQ 1998-2002010002000300040005000财务报表分析与证券投资8The Three Major Stock Exchanges0500010000150002000025000NYSEAMEXNASDAQUS#of listedfFirmsMarket Cap.Billions财务报表分析与证券投资9The Regulator of U.S. Stock MarketnSEC, the Securities and Exchange CommissionnArthur Levitt,

4、 commissioner, 1993-2000 in the Clinton administrationnNumbers Game Speech, 1998财务报表分析与证券投资10The Current SEC Commissioners 财务报表分析与证券投资11Who Issue American Accounting Standards?nFASB: Financial Accounting Standards BoardSet up in 1973 to replace Accounting Principle Board (APB)An independent, private

5、 organizationStandards issued recognized by SECnGAAP: Generally Accepted Accounting Standards7 concept statements (principles)e.g., No. 7 (February 2000) Using cash flow information and present value in accounting measurements148 statements of standards (rules) by the year of 2003e.g., No. 1 (Decemb

6、er 1973) Disclosure of foreign currency translation information财务报表分析与证券投资12International Accounting StandardsInternational Accounting Standards Committee (IASC)Based at LondonIndependent and privately fundedMeant to design a set of worldly accepted accounting standardsCommittee serve as an advisory

7、 board memberInternational Accounting Standards41 standards up to the year of 2003e.g., IAS 2. Inventory, January 1, 1995财务报表分析与证券投资13“Big Four” International Accounting FirmsnErnst Young (worldwide revenue 2002: $10.1 billions, 4.3 billions in the U.S.)nPriceWaterhouseCoopersnDeloitte & TouchenKPMG

8、财务报表分析与证券投资14中华人民共和国证券监督管理委员会 (Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission)财务报表分析与证券投资15Number of Stocks814531832913235307458519471086115412231285137302004006008001000120014001600199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004Number of Stocks at Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges财务报表分析与

9、证券投资16Amount of Capital Raised020406080100120140160199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004Billion RMBAmount of Capital Raised Through Stock Markets财务报表分析与证券投资17Market Cap. (A Share)05001000150020002500300035004000450050001990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320

10、04Billion RMBMarket Capitalization财务报表分析与证券投资18Market Size relative to NYSE2004-12-31NYSESH+SZNo. of Stocks27471373Market Cap (billion USD)19600453财务报表分析与证券投资19Shanghai A Share Index050010001500200025002-Jan-9128-Oct-9120-Aug-9215-Jun-9311-Apr-948-Feb-9530-Nov-958-Oct-9615-Aug-9725-Jun-986-May-9917-

11、Mar-0018-Jan-014-Dec-0124-Oct-022-Sep-0315-Jul-04Market Performance财务报表分析与证券投资20Profitability of Chinese Listed Firms: 1992-2004财务报表分析与证券投资21ROE财务报表分析与证券投资22 Stock Market Capitalization/GDP(%) Nation198019901999Nation198019901999Argentina0.110.15Italy0.070.0130.68Australia0.380.371.13Japan0.331.640.

12、95Austria0.030.170.17Netherlands3Belgium0.090.310.82Norway0.540.230.7Brazil0.050.080.45SouthAfrica1.231.331.2Canada0.461.221.22Spain0.170.410.69Chile0.340.51.05Sweden0.110.371.77Egypt0.010.060.29Swissland0.441.933.23France0.090.241.17U.K.0.380.812.25Germany0.090.20.67U.S.0.460.541.52India0

13、.050.160.46财务报表分析与证券投资23Share types in ChinaSharesTradableNon-tradableIndividualForeignLegal personStateA shareB shareH, N, S, Share财务报表分析与证券投资24财务报表分析与证券投资25Share Structures of Chinese Listed Companies (December, 2001)Non-tradable (0.1 billion shares):State Shares 2410.61 46.20Domestic Legal Person

14、 Shares 663.17 12.71Other non-tradable Shares 331.07 6.4%Total non-tradable 3404.85 65.25Tradable:A Shares 1318.13 25.26% B Shares 163.09 3.13% H/N and other shares 331.94 6.36%Total Tradable: 1813.16 34.75%Total: 5218.01 100%财务报表分析与证券投资26Large Shareholder expropriation of minority shareholders/Tunn

15、elingAn Example, Jiang, Lee and Yue, (2005)财务报表分析与证券投资27序号合格境外机构投资者（QFII）名称1瑞士银行有限公司 （UBS Limited）2野村证券株式会社 （Nomura Securities Co., Ltd）3花旗环球金融有限公司 （Citigroup Global Markets Limited）4摩根士丹利国际有限公司 （Morgan Stanley & International Limited）5高盛公司 （Goldman Sachs & Co.）6香港上海汇丰银行有限公司 （The Hongkong and Shangh

16、ai Banking Corporation Limited）7德意志银行 （Deutsche Bank AG）8荷兰商业银行（ING Bank N.V.）9摩根大通银行（JPMorgan Chase Bank）10瑞士信贷第一波士顿（香港）有限公司（Credit Suisse First Boston (Hong Kong) Limited）11日兴资产管理公司（Nikko Asset Management Co., Ltd）12渣打银行香港分行（Standard Chartered Bank Hong Kong）13恒生银行有限公司（Hang Seng Bank Limited）14大和证

17、券SMBC株式会社（Daiwa Securities SMBC Co.,Ltd）15美林国际（Merrill Lynch International）16雷曼兄弟国际（欧洲）公司（Lehman Brithers International Europe）17比尔盖茨-美林达基金（Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation）18荷兰银行（ABN AMRO Bank N.V.）19法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）20巴克莱银行（Barclays Bank PLC）21法国巴黎银行（BNP Parisbas）22德国德雷斯顿银行（Dresdner Bank Akt

18、iengesellschaft）23富通银行（Fortis Bank）24加拿大鲍尔集团（Power Corporation of Canada）25东方汇理银行（CALYON S.A.）26景顺资产管理公司（INVESCO Asset Management Limited）财务报表分析与证券投资28Chinas Stock Market: A ten-year perspectiveFrom zero to an important emerging capital marketFirst developed fast, then became stagnant:Fewer new list

19、ingsMarket index downRaises less capitalLess trading activitiesListed companies performed worseOverall Less important in the booming economy!财务报表分析与证券投资29The Users of financial statementsnEquity investorsnCreditorsnGovernmentnCustomernSuppliersnLabor union财务报表分析与证券投资30课程结构第一节 会计信息与资本市场介绍第二节 会计报表回顾-资

20、产负债表第三节 会计报表回顾-损益表第四节 会计报表回顾-现金流量表第五节 赢余管理与赢余质量第六节 赢利能力分析第七节 赢利预测第八节 风险分析第九节 证券价值评估财务报表分析与证券投资31Perspectives of This CoursenA security analysts perspectivenEmphasize two issues: Earnings Management and valuation财务报表分析与证券投资32Earnings Management: Rao, Teoh, Wong, Review of Accounting Studies, 1998财务报表

21、分析与证券投资33Earnings Restatements Min Wu, HKUST财务报表分析与证券投资34财务报表分析与证券投资35财务报表分析与证券投资36Widespread Earnings Manipulation (Jiang and Wang 2005)财务报表分析与证券投资37Accounting-based ValuationnWho are my peers? Earnings multiples, book-value multiples, sales multiplesnEVA, Economic value added, Residual income valu

22、ation (RIV), Edward, Bell, Ohlson Model (EBO)nIn one word, Share value = f (earnings, book value, dividend, cash flow, etc.)财务报表分析与证券投资38Accounting-based Valuation-2nUltimately, we do valuation to earn higher returns on stock trading.nWe get an intrinsic value number, compare it to prevailing stock

23、price, if our value estimate is higher than price, we buy; otherwise we sell. nFrankel and Lee, Journal of Finance, 1999To get papers mentioned, from a PKU computer, go to or just ask from me.财务报表分析与证券投资39How Important is Accounting Information?nJanuary 22, 2003, after market closed, AT&T (stock sym

24、bol T) announced:Revenue for 4th quarter shrank to $9.3 billion from 10.2 billion in the 4th quarter of previous yearLoss from continuing operations widened to $611 million from $216 million.财务报表分析与证券投资40How Important is Accounting Information? (http:)财务报表分析与证券投资41How Important is Accounting Information?nIn the weekend before Monday, Feb. 3, 2003, Mattel (MAT) announced fourth quarter results: nRevenue increased from the fourth quarter a year earlier by 6.9% to $1.56 billion. nNet income increased b