美国风能产业年度报告

1、AWEA Small Wind Turbine Global Market StudyAWEA（美国风能协会）小风机全球市场研究Table of Contents Summary 概况 3Survey Findings and Analysis 调查结果及分析 4Growth Potential and Industry Projections 增长潜力和行业预测 7Market Factors and Developments 市场因素和发展 8Costs 成本 9Displaced Carbon Dioxide 二氧化碳减排 17Building-Mounted Turbines 建筑型风

2、机 17Manufacturing 制造业 17The Global Market 全球市场 18Solar Photovoltaics太阳能光伏 21Conclusion and Outlook 结论与展望 23Methodology and Reporting Manufacturers制造方法和报告 26Bibliography and Other Resources 参考资料 26Endnotes 结束语 28Summary概况Small Wind Reaches 100 MW Milestone in u.S. with 15% Growth在美小风机装机达到100 MW，增长15%

3、Despite an economic downturn, the u.S. market for small wind turbines those with rated capacities of 100 kilowatts (kW)1 and less grew 15% in 2009 with 20.3 Megawatts (MW) of new capacity and $82.4 million in sales. This growth equates to nearly 10,000 new units and pushes the total installed capaci

4、ty in the u.S. to 100 MW.2 尽管在经济衰退时期，美国小风机市场上额定能力100千瓦(kW)及以下的，在2009年增长15%，新増装机20.3兆瓦，销售额82.4亿美元。这一经济发展等同于将近新增装机10000台，使得美国总装机容量达到100 MW。Half of this 100-MW milestone capacity came within the past three years of the industrys 80-year history. Manufacturers attribute this growth to a mixture of new a

5、nd improved federal and state incentives, optimistic private equity investors, and sustained consumer demand.美国小风电产业已经历80年，累计装机的一半来自过去三年的贡献。这增长得益于联邦政府改进的激励政策，乐观的私人股本投资者和持续的消费者的需求。The 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act expanded the federal investment tax credit (ITC) for small wind turbines,

6、 allowing consumers to take fully 30% of the total cost of a small wind system as a tax credit. In 2009 an additional $80 million of private equity was invested into manufacturing companies during the peak of the economic recession, boosting to at least $252.7 million the total of outside equity inv

7、ested across 20 manufacturers (most of them u.S.-based) over the past five years. This investment provided companies with capital to increase production, lower costs, meet sustained demand, and even acquire competitors.2009年美国复苏和再投资法案扩展了对小风机的联邦投资税收优惠(ITC)，让消费者能够在小风机系统节省30%的总成本。在2009年经济衰退的高峰期，8000万美金

8、的民间资本投资于20个小风电企业。在过去的5年至少推动了2.527亿美元的外部股权投资于制造商(大多数在美国)。Table 1 2009 U.S. Sales 2009 Global Sales20.3 MW 42.5 MW15% growth over 2008 10% growth over 20089,800 units 21,000 units$83 million in sales $189 million in sales表12009美国市场销售情况 09年世界市场销售情况20.3 MW 42.5 MW比08年增长15% 比08年增长10%9800套 21,000套销售额8300万

9、美元 销售额1.89亿美元Other Key Statistics: 其他统计数据l 95% of all small wind systems sold in the US last year were made by US manufacturers l 美国市场的小风机95%是美国企业生产的l 2/3 of all small wind systems sold in the world last year were made by U.S. manufacturers l 世界市场的小风机2/3由美国企业生产l Approximately 250 companies worldwide

10、 manufacture or plan to manufacture small wind turbines, 95 of which more than one-thirdare based in the U.S. l 世界上大约有250个小风电生产企业，其中95个在美国l An estimated 100,000 units have been sold in the US since 1980l 1980年以来美国累计销售10万台Survey Findings and Analysis调研结果与分析Based on a 2010 AWEA survey of manufacturers

11、 around the world, the u.S. market continued to grow in 2009 primarily because of the new u.S. federal investment tax credit (ITC), sustained consumer demand, external private equity investment in manufacturing, and the ability of manufacturers to identify and leverage specific market niches. 基于2010

12、年AWEA对世界范围内的厂家的调查，美国市场在2009年持续增长的主要原因是美国新的联邦投资税收优惠(ITC)、持续消费需求、外部资金注入小风电制造业，制造厂家对市场的界定能力以及撬动市场空白的能力。The ITC was perhaps the most important factor in last years growth. The credit opened markets that have historically been just out of reach, sent a powerful signal to investors about the technologys p

13、romise, and helped consumers purchase small wind systems during a recession when other financing mechanisms were hardest to obtain. 促进去年增长的最重要的因素可能是ITC（税收激励政策）。信贷打开了以往达不到的市场，使投资者看到了这个技术的前景，并帮助消费者在经济衰退期间，其它方面融资困难的时期给予消费者帮助购买小风机。The enactment of the ITC the industrys top priority has also allowed indu

14、stry members and advocates to shift their political efforts toward other salient issues, including permitting, net metering and standardized interconnection regulations, and the appropriation and allocation of federal research and development funds. Manufacturers have also focused more resources on

15、improving turbine performance, certifying equipment to meet a newly created performance and safety standard,4 reducing costs, strengthening dealer networks, defining new market niches, and scaling up production. 投资税收优惠 (ITC)的条款这一行业最优先考虑的同时使小风电产业能关注有关的其它方面，如安装许可、净值计量、标准化并网联邦研发资金的分配，等等使制造商关注如何改善设备的运行、

16、通过认证来满足新的要求、降低成本、扩大销售网络、开拓新市场和扩大产能。U.S. installed capacity increased by 15% last year, but the number of units sold decreased by 6%. This trend demonstrates a continued market shift toward larger, grid-tied systems. Since 2007 the residential and commercial / light industrial market segments have em

17、erged as dominant, with sales of off-grid turbines(generally those smaller than 1 kW and used to charge batteries) remaining flat.美国装机容量去年增长15%，但台数减少了6%。这一趋势显示市场转变继续倾向并网系统。2007年以来的居民和社区照明市场使小型离网风机(一般小于1千瓦，用来充蓄电池)的销售持平。Manufacturers report that while interest in small wind has increased through the e

18、conomic recession, consumers are delaying purchasing decisions until financing becomes more available and affordable. Therefore, as the economy recovers, many manufacturers expect a surge in sales.制造商报告称经济衰退期对小风机的兴趣增加，消费者的购买决定推迟，直到资金情况好转。因此，随着经济复苏，许多制造商期待销售大幅提升。Demand Drivers推动市场需求的动力Consumer demand

19、 continues to be fueled by a combination of the following factors, though economics and environment remain primary concerns:尽管经济和环境仍然是首要问题，消费者需求还受到下列因素刺激:Economics经济方面l Length of payback period, or IRR* l 投资回收期，或者IRR（内部收益率）l Financial hedge against rising prices of conventional electricity l 作为一种对付日

20、益增长的传统电力的手段l Financial stability compared to volatile prices of conventional electricityl 与常规电力的变化无常相比的经济稳定性Practicality实际应用方面l Reliability of electricity supply l 可靠的电力供应l Natural synergism with solar PV technologyl 对太阳能技术的自然协调l Diversity of applications, including those remote and off-gridl 应用的多样性

21、，包括边远地区和离网系统Values价值方面l Environmentl 环境l Independencel 独立自主供电l Image enhancementl 改善形象l Consumer choicel 消费者的选择l Self-reliancel 自力更生l Do-It-Yourselfl 自己动手DIYl High visibility, particularly for commercial consumersl 高度的视觉形象，尤其对商业的应用Drivers Specifically For Real Estate Developers对房地产开发商的特殊动力l Marketab

22、ility of a “Zero-Energy Home”l “零排放住宅”的商业化l Practicality of integrating small wind and solar hybrid systemsl 风光互补系统的实用性l Possible availability of rebates for both developers and consumersl 对开发商和消费者的双重返还可能性l Whether installation cost can be built into the price of a propertyl 安装风力发电机的费用可能被计算在房价内l Rol

23、e in defining the progressive character of neighborhoodl 在邻居中展现“先进性”角色l Appeal of “renting vs. owning” electricityl “拥有电力”相对于“租用电力”的吸引力* Many investors view the internal rate of return (IRR) of a renewable energy technology to be a superior method of assessing its value to its payback period. IRR, n

24、ot payback period, is the primary tool used to assess the profitability of other types of financial investments (IRAs, stocks, etc.). Investors also point out that unlike mutual funds and stocks, renewable energy systems are generally far less susceptible to external risk.5 Measuring profitability i

25、n terms of payback also reinforces the negative perception that renewable energy is unaffordable and that consumers should postpone purchases until technological improvements reduce costs. However, when compared with other investment options using IRR, renewable energy investments can become much mo

26、re attractive.许多投资者把可再生能源技术的内部收益率(IRR)看成对其回收期的一种优越的价值评估方法。IRR，而不是回收期，是对其他类型的金融投资(个人退休帐户,股票等) 收益率进行评估的首要工具。投资者还指出,与共同基金和股票不同，可再生能源系统通常远不易受到外部风险的影响。就回收而言，测量收益率并加固消极因素，像是买不起可再生能源，可再生能源消费者应该推迟购买，直到技术改进来降低成本等。然而,当与其他的投资选择相比时，可再生能源投资报酬率更有吸引力。Growth Potential and Industry Projections增长潜力与行业预测The worlds lea

27、ding 15 manufacturers continue to predict exponential sales growth in the U.S. market over the next five years, with projections of over one gigawatt (1,000 Megawatts) of cumulative installed small wind capacity in the U.S. by 2015, despite current economic conditions and the cooled sales of 2009.6

28、The economic recession led these manufacturers to pare down their growth projections somewhat from last years report,7 but they remain optimistic about achieving their target. Primary drivers include the eight-year 30% federal investment tax credit enacted in October 2008, recent and potential priva

29、te equity investment, and greater equipment supply and manufacturing capabilities.世界15个领先的小风机制造商继续预测，在未来5年中，小风电产业在美国市场上将呈指数式增长，在2015年在美累计装机容量将达到1000兆瓦，尽管当前的经济局势不佳，2009年6月份的销售也冷淡。经济不景气导致制造商不看好去年的报告中对增长的预测，但他们仍然对达成目标表示乐观。而这些预测的依据是联邦政府连续8年的30%的投资税收优惠，民间资本的进入，极大的设备供应和制造能力。States各州状况Manufacturers report

30、that the fastest growing markets were in the Midwest last year, but the largest markets overall remain in the Northeast, upper Midwest, and California. 制造商的报告声称，去年增长最快的市场在中西部，但最大的市场总地来说在东北、中西部北部的州和加州。In general, states that offer small-wind consumer incentives at a level of $2 per Watt of capacity o

31、r more attract the strongest share of the market. In recent years the states with the highest sales percentages have been CA, NV, AZ, OR, NY, MA, and OH. A handful of states, particularly New Jersey, have long had strong market potential due to incentives and robust utility policies, but local permi

32、tting challenges have throttled the markets potential. In early 2010, however, New Jersey and Delaware joined seven other states (CA, NV, WI, VT, MI, OR, and NH) in enacting legislation to streamline the permitting process at the state level, opening the potential of these markets.8 (See also “Marke

33、t Factors and Developments,” page 9) 一般来说，州政府对小风电给予每瓦特两美元或更高的补贴具有很大的吸引力。近年来美国销售百分比最高的州为加州、内华达、亚利桑那、俄勒冈、纽约、马萨诸塞、俄亥俄州。少数几个州，特别是新泽西，由于激励政策一直有较强的市场潜力，但是当地的许可制度扼杀了市场的潜力。在2010年初新泽西、特拉华及其他的7个州(加州、内华达、威斯康辛、维蒙特、密西根、俄勒冈和新罕布什尔州) 在州的层面上立法简化许可程序，打开了市场的潜力。(请参见“市场因素和发展，第9页”)Quantifying the size of state-level mark

34、ets remains difficult because of the dispersion and complexity of dealer networks. Most manufacturers are unable to report sales figures by state or region. Consequently, a definitive measurement of state markets is beyond the scope of this study. However, manufacturers consistently report that stat

35、e markets can be assessed, generally, in proportion to one another based on the extent of their respective incentive programs and other public policies. California, for example, remains far and away the largest state market due to its relatively long history of generous incentives and streamlined pe

36、rmitting laws. Different policies and financial incentive structures also affect different market niches. For example, robust net metering policies generally open markets for turbines 10 kW and larger, and financial incentives for residential consumers generally create markets for turbines 20 kW and

37、 smaller.量化各州的潜在市场是困难的，因为经销商网络的分散性和复杂性。大多数制造商难以提供该州或地区的确切销售数据。制造商根据州的激励政策和其他公共政策，并参照其他州来进行估计。比如加州，由于历来相对好的激励措施和较简单的审批程序，将继续成为最大的州市场。政策不同和财政激励结构不同将导致不同的市场。例如，粗放的净值计量政策将产生10kW或更大的风机市场，而对居民消费者的融资激励政策将产生大至20kW的风机市场。Market Factors and Developments市场因素与发展Federal incentives. On October 3, 2008 Congress pas

38、sed the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, H.R. 1424, that included an eight-year, 30% federal-level investment tax credit (ITC) to help consumers purchase qualified small wind systems with rated capacities of 100 kW and less. The amount of this credit was stringently capped, however, unt

39、il the passage of The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act(ARRA) of 2009, H.R. 1, on February 17, 2009, which removed the cost caps. A 30% ITC has since been available for small wind turbine consumers. The legislation, in its current form, will last through December 31, 2016.10 联邦激励政策。2008年10月3日美国

40、国会通过了2008年稳定经济紧急法案，包括八年的30% 联邦投资税收优惠(ITC)帮助消费者购买合格的小风机系统，100kW千瓦的额定能力。原来对总金额有封顶，但是通过美国复苏与再投资法案后取消了。该项立法将持续到2016年12月31日。This legislation marked the first federal incentive for small wind technology since 1985 and provides the industry with stable, long-term policy that has historically been out of re

41、ach for other renewables. Industry members value its passage as an important step toward achieving political parity with the solar PV industry, small winds market counterpart, which has enjoyed a federal ITC since 2005. Still, manufacturers report, lopsided state-level incentives continue to favor s

42、olar PV and make true marketplace parity difficult to achieve. 业内人士认为该法案的通过有助于获得与太阳能光伏产业相同的激励措施。但尽管如此，不平衡的州级优惠措施继续倾向于太阳能。The ARRA also created a U.S. Treasury grant program (Section 1603) allowing commercial consumers, for a limited time, to receive payments in lieu of the ITC. This new incentive st

43、ructure allowed incentives to flow to projects and taxpayers more immediately than a tax credit, which must be redeemed at the end of the fiscal year. The grant program has been instrumental in growing all segments of the wind and solar industries, and AWEA is lobbying for its extension through 2012

44、.ARRA同时也建立了一个美国财政补助计划(1603部分)使得消费者在一段时间内不是受到税收优惠而是直接收到款项。这个新的激励措施比税收优惠更直接地流向工程项目和纳税人。补助方案对风能和太阳能产业已经起到帮助作用。AWEA正试图使整个方案扩展到2012年。Additionally, the ARRA created a 30% ITC to help manufacturers of renewable energy equipment, like small wind turbines, invest in the creation, expansion, or re-equipment o

45、f manufacturing facilities (see also “Manufacturing,” page 18).此外，ARRA规定了30%的税收优惠帮助可再生能源设备的生产商，如小风机生产商投资创新，扩大生产或重购生产设备(请参见“制造业”，第18页)。Installer and equipment certification. In December 2009, AWEA finalized a technical standard that can now be used voluntarily to test small wind systems to performanc

46、e and safety criteria. Third-party organizations like the Small Wind Certification Council (SWCC)11 can now certify systems tested to this standard. An average of 6-12 months of field testing is required to meet the standards requirements, so no turbine will likely become certified until the end of

47、2010.安装与设备认证。在2009年12月份，AWEA通过了小风电运行的技术标准，用于测试小风电系统的性能。第三方组织如小风机认证委员会(SWCC)现在可以按这个标准为系统测试及认证。为达到标准所需，平均实地试验期为6-12个月，所以2010年底前不太可能有认证通过。Certification has long been a major goal of the small-wind industry, which for decades has largely been self-regulated. Industry members look to certification as a w

48、ay to provide consumers, regulators, and policymakers with transparent and credible information about the safety, performance, and reliability of the technology. Many in the industry see certification as a strong sign of the industrys maturity and as a building block for lasting growth.业内人士把认证作为一种为消

49、费者、监管机构和决策者有关提供安全、性能和可靠性的透明及可靠的信息的方式。认证是产业成熟的标志，是持续增长的基石。The popular Energy Star12 government program, administered by the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to certify many energy-efficient consumer goods, will likely incorporate small wind systems and other re

50、newable generators in the near future. Industry sees great potential for this initiative to take small wind turbines further into mainstream markets. The DOE and EPA indicate they will rely heavily on SWCC certification when granting selective Energy Star labels to qualified equipment.不久的将来，小风机和其他可再

51、生能源也将采用能源部(DOE)的能源星级标识体系和环境保护署(EPA)的能效体系。可以预见把小风机带入主流市场的巨大潜力能源部和EPA指出在给合格的设备评定能源标识的时候，他们将在很大程度上取决于SWCC的认证。The North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners(NABCEP)13 also plans to begin the process of certifying small wind turbine installation professionals in the fall of 2010. This volunta

52、ry program aims to offer experienced installers an opportunity to identify and market themselves as experts in their field. Installation is an important factor in a turbines performance, cost, and public acceptance.NABCEP计划于2010年秋启动小风机安装资质的认证。旨在让该领域内有经营的安装团队有机会推销自己。安装在风机的性能、成本和公众接受力中是一个重要因素。While eq

53、uipment and installer certification programs will be voluntary, market forces are likely to institutionalize them throughout the industry. A number of states and localities have indicated that they plan to make certification a requirement to connect to the electricity grid and/or obtain a zoning per

54、mit. Incentive program managers in numerous states indicate they will require certification, or evidence of intent to achieve certification, in order to be eligible for funding. These states include AZ, CA, IA, MD, ME, MT, NC, NV, OH, VT, and WA.许多州和地区要求并网的设备必须获得认证和/或得到区划许可。在许多州的刺激方案的管理人员表示要获得基金，需要提

55、供认证或有证据表明已获得认证。这些州包括亚利桑那州、加州、衣阿华州、马里兰州、缅因州、蒙大拿州、北卡罗来纳州、内华达州、俄亥俄州、佛蒙特州和华盛顿州。External investment. Last year an additional $80 million of external private equity was invested in manufacturing companies during the peak of the economic recession, boosting to at least $252.7 million the total of outside e

56、quity invested across 20 manufacturers (most of them U.S.-based) over the past five years. This investment provided companies with capital to increase production, lower costs, meet a sustained demand, and even acquire competitors.外部投资。去年在经济衰退的高峰期，8000万美金的外部民间资本进入小风电产业。5年中累计达到2.527亿美元，投入到约20家小风电生产企业，

57、大都是美国企业。这些投资使企业得以扩大生产，降低成本、得到持续的需求也有了对手。美国的32%的风投投向清洁能源技术，但仍偏爱太阳能。Zoning/permitting. Poor or nonexistent local permitting practices continue to thwart an estimated 1/3 of all planned small wind turbine installations. Overly restrictive and cumbersome regulations can limit a turbines productivity, discourage customers and investment, and repel local industry-related businesses from