外文翻译ERP项目实施成功因素和风险管理

1、erp项目实施成功因素和风险管理参考国外的一些文献资料，一个成功的erp项目，往往要花费数年时间，数千万美元得以完成。再回头看国内，随着erp怀疑论的抬头，价格战的兴起，erp作为一种软件供应商的产品，却有走下神坛趋势。就连erp界的首领sap也推出了business one产品，价格低于十万。不过，即便erp软件能做到免费，或如ibm推崇的按需收费的境界，从整个企业实施的角度，考虑到人员、培训、维护、业务重组、二次开发、三次、n次开发，其费用应该也在数百万乃至千万人民币的规模。这对于国内企业而言，已是不小的数目了。但是，还是有不少企业怀着美丽的梦想，踏上erp实施的艰辛之旅。其中又有不少项目

2、以失败告终。而对于那些最后的幸存者，是否就可以还戟入仓，饮酒高歌呢？事实上，企业在成功实施erp项目后，将面对较实施前更大的风险。在未来的五到十年中，是否有一个扎实的erp风险管理机制将决定了企业是否能在最初的erp投资中真正获益。1998年thomas h.davenport在哈佛商务评论发表了名为将企业放入企业系统的文章(putting the enterprise into the enterprise system)。该文系统地提出了企业系统，或称erp系统给企业运作带来积极及消极的引响。同时也直接提出了未来企业必须面对的一个风险：将整个企业放入企业系统中的风险。按照美国项目管理协会对

3、风险的定义，“风险”是指对项目有利或不利的不确定因素。项目是“为完成某一独特的产品或服务所做的一次性努力”，项目的“独特性”决定了项目不可能是以与以前完全相同的方式、由与以前完全相同的人来完成的，同时，项目所要创造的产品或服务，以及项目可能涉及的范围、时间及成本都不可能在项目开始时完全确定，因此，在项目进行过程中也相应会出现大量的不确定性，即项目风险。本文以下所提到的“风险”是指对项目“不利”的不确定因素。对项目不利的风险存在于任何项目中，并往往会给项目的推进和项目的成功带来负面影响。风险一旦发生，它的影响是多方面的，如导致项目产品/服务的功能无法满足客户的需要、项目费用超出预算、项目计划拖延

4、或被迫取消等，其最终体现为客户满意度的降低。因此，识别风险、评估风险并采取措施应对风险即风险管理对项目管理具有十分重要的意义。 风险管理的具体内容 项目风险管理主要分为以下几个步骤：风险识别、定性/定量风险分析、风险应对计划编制及风险监控。1.风险识别 风险识别，是指识别并记录可能对项目造成不利影响的因素。由于项目处于不断发展变化的过程中，因此风险识别也贯穿于整个项目实施的全过程,而不仅仅是项目的开始阶段。风险识别不是一次性的工作，而需要更多系统的、横向的思维。几乎所有关于项目的计划与信息都可能作为风险识别的依据，如项目进度及成本计划、工作分解结构、项目组织结构、项目范围、类似项目的历史信息等

5、。 需要注意的是，并非所有的风险都可以通过风险识别来进行管理。风险识别只能发现已知风险（如：已知项目组织中某一成员能力不能完全满足要求）或已知未知风险（known-unknown,即“事件名称已知”，如“客户方人员参与力度不足”）；而某些风险，由于项目的独特性，不可能在其发生前预知(unknown-unknown,即未知未知风险)。 2.定性/定量风险分析 通过风险识别过程所识别出的潜在风险数量很多，但这些潜在的风险对项目的影响是各不相同的。“风险分析”即通过分析、比较、评估等各种方式，对确定各风险的重要性，对风险排序并评估其对项目可能后果，从而使项目实施人员可以将主要精力集中于为数不多的主要

6、风险上，从而使项目的整体风险得到有效的控制。 风险分析主要可采用的方法有：风险概率/影响评估矩阵、敏感性分析、模拟等。在进行上述分析时，主要关注以下几个风险因素： 风险概率：即风险事件发生的可能性的百分比表示。这个数字是通过主观判断而获得的，如专家评估、访谈或根据以前类似项目的历史信息。 风险影响：即风险发生可能对项目造成的影响大小。这种影响可能是时间上的，可能是成本上的，也可能是其他各方面的。 风险值（预期值emv）：风险值=风险概率风险影响，是对风险对项目造成的影响的最直接评估，它综合考虑了概率与影响两方面的因素。 3.风险应对计划编制 风险应对计划的目的在于通过制定相应的措施，来应对风险

7、对项目可能造成的威胁。最常采用的应对威胁的几种措施是：规避、减轻、转移、接受。 规避，即通过消除风险的成因来消除该风险； 减轻，即通过采取措施降低“风险概率”或“风险影响”,从而达到降低风险值的结果； 转移，即将风险转移到另一方，如购买保险、分包等； 接受，即对该风险不采取措施，接受其造成的结果，或在该风险发生后再采取应急计划进行处理。 具体采用何种方式来应对某一风险，取决于该风险的风险值（emv）、拟采取应对措施的可能成本、项目管理人员对待风险的态度（效用函数）类型等各方面，不可一概而论。 风险应对计划是针对已识别的风险进行的；对于未知未知的风险，不可能预选制定相应的应对计划或应急计划，因此

8、，可以利用管理储备来应对。 4.风险监控 风险监控主要包括以下几方面的任务： 1）在项目进行过程中跟踪已识别风险、监控残余风险并识别新风险：随着项目的实施以及风险应对措施的执行，各种对项目的影响因素处于不断变化的过程中，因此，需要在整个项目过程中，时刻监督风险的发展与变化情况，确定伴随某些风险的消失而来的新的风险并制定相应的处理措施。 2）保证风险应对计划的执行并评估风险应对计划执行效果。评估的方法可以是项目周期（阶段）性回顾、绩效评估等。 3）对突发的风险或“接受”的风险采取适当的权变措施。 通过风险监控过程，项目人员持续更新项目风险列表，并通过重复上述各步骤保证项目风险始终处于受控状态。

9、erp项目实施的风险管理 不同类型的项目有不同类型的风险。erp项目实施的风险同样有其特殊性。以下对erp项目实施过程中的风险管理措施做一简要说明，一家之言，仅供参考。 1.erp项目实施中的主要风险及应对措施 如前所述，“几乎所有关于项目的计划与信息都可能作为风险识别的依据，如项目进度及成本计划、工作分解结构、项目组织结构、项目范围、类似项目的历史信息等。”在erp项目的风险识别过程中，可以以项目计划为线索，识别项目在各方面的风险。 实施过程中，应特别关注以下几方面的风险： 1)项目范围的风险 项目采购管理通常有三种合同方式，即：固定价或总价合同、成本报销（加奖励）合同、单价合同。通常不确定

10、性越大、风险越大的项目，越趋向于采用靠后的合同方式。这也是国外及国内部分erp供应商在实施服务中采用按人天提供服务并收取费用的原因。但采用这种方式，买方（即客户）存在较大的风险，因此，国内很多客户倾向于以固定价格订立实施服务合同。而这种合同方式，则对于卖方（即顾问方）存在较大风险。在此前提下，若项目范围定义不清晰，可能导致买卖双方对项目范围的认知产生分歧：卖方希望尽量缩小实施范围，以最小的成本结束项目；而买方则希望将erp系统的所有功能尽可能多的实施，以固定的价格获得最大的收益。若双方的分歧较大，不能达成一致，则必然会造成效率低下，相互扯皮。 因此，erp项目合同中，应对项目的实施范围做尽可能

11、清晰的界定，切不可停留在“实施财务模块”或是“实施应收、应付、总账管理”之类的层面上。宁愿多花一些时间在项目实施前的范围界定工作上，也不要在项目实施过程中，面对erp繁多的功能，实施方与用户方争执不下，或被迫让步，投入更大的精力于项目中，而导致项目不能按时完成。 2）项目进度的风险 关于erp项目实施的周期，目前在宣传上有强调“快速”的倾向。但erp项目进度的控制绝非易事，不仅取决于顾问公司的能力，同时也在很大程度上受到客户方对erp期望值是否合理、对范围控制是否有效、对项目投入（包括人员时间的投入和资金等的投入）是否足够等方面的影响。 由神州数码提供erp系统并负责实施的昆山世同金属，在较短

12、时间内上线成功，原因之一就是易飞erp实施小组完整成熟的导入机制及顾问人员卓越的素质，有效顺利地协助了世同金属的上线工作。从上线开始便有专业顾问负责整个导入实施的计划，长期积累的行业知识及管理经验也提升了整个erp的运作水平，妥善处理了上线工作中的问题。用户对项目分阶段实施有强烈的认同，在第一阶段仅强调对基本功能的实现，而将大量的工作留到上线后或持续改进过程中。 而实际操作中，并非所有用户对erp实施都有这种理解与认同，因此，在项目进度计划时，一味在项目进度计划时求快，甚或是刻意追求某个具有特殊意义的日期作为项目里程碑，将对项目进度控制造成很大压力。 事实上，很多项目的失败，正是起因于项目进度

13、出现拖延，而导致项目团队士气低落，效率低下。因此，erp项目实施的时间管理，需要充分考虑各种潜在因素，适当留有余地；任务分解详细度适中，便于考核；在执行过程中，应强调项目按进度执行的重要性，在考虑任何问题时，都要将保持进度作为先决条件；同时，合理利用赶工及快速跟进等方法，充分利用资源。 3）项目人力资源的风险 人力资源是erp项目实施过程中最为关键的资源。保证合适的人，以足够的精力参与到项目中来，是项目成功实施的基本保证。 erp项目实施中存在各种角色，对各种角色应具备的素质，我们在此不再赘述。要降低项目的人力资源风险，就要保证进入到项目中并承担角色的各类项目干系人满足项目要求。因此，实施双方

14、应对参与人员进行认真的评估，这种评估应该是双方面的，不仅是用户对咨询顾问的评估，也应包括咨询公司对参与项目的用户方成员（在国内目前的环境下，主要是指关键用户）的评估。同时，应保证项目人员对项目的投入程度。应将参与erp项目人员的业绩评估与erp项目实施的状况相关联，明确erp项目是在该阶段项目相关人员最重要的本职工作；制定适当的奖惩措施；在企业中建立“一把手工程”的思想，层层“一把手”，即各级负责人针对erp实施向下行使全权、对上担负全责，将一把手从个体概念延伸到有机结合的群体概念。 4）对erp认识不正确的风险 有的企业把erp视为企业管理的灵丹妙药，认为既然erp“功能强大”，只要上了er

15、p，企业的所有问题便迎刃而解，或者以为企业的所有流程都可以纳入到erp中来；还有的人简单的将erp视为当前业务流程的电子化。 要防范或减轻这种风险，需要对用户进行大量的培训：erp的由来，erp的功能，实施erp的目的与期望等等，尽可能在用户产生“erp不能满足我的需求和期望”这种想法之前，让用户知道“现阶段对erp合理的需求期望是什么”。 2erp项目实施中的风险监控 可以采取以下措施对erp项目实施中的风险进行监控，以防止危及项目成败的风险发生。 1)建立并及时更新项目风险列表及风险排序。项目管理人员应随时关注与关键风险相关因素的变化情况，及时决定何时、采用何种风险应对措施。 2）风险应对

16、审计：随时关注风险应对措施（规避、减轻、转移）实施的效果，对残余风险进行评估。 3）建立报告机制，及时将项目中存在的问题反映到项目经理或项目管理层。 4）定期召集项目干系人召开项目会议，对风险状况进行评估，并通过各方面对项目实施的反应来发现新风险。 5）更新相关数据库如风险识别检查表，以利于今后类似项目的实施。 6）引入第三方咨询，定期对项目进行质量检查，以防范大的风险。 总之,实施信息化，企业就要面对巨大风险，有时甚至是将自己的生死交到了信息化手上。但如果不实施信息化，企业就要被同行所超越，进而湮没在全球化的浪潮中，这是每一家企业都不愿意看到的。可看看常见的资料，都是教你如何去规避信息化风险

17、，而没有人愿意直面风险，这不能不说是信息化的缺失。如果我们的企业、厂商能够更加开明些，丢掉那所谓的面子问题，将他们面对风险时的经验与大众共享，相信信息化的失败率绝对要比现在少得多。科技外文文献discussing about the successful factors oferp projects implementation and the risk managementrefers to the overseas some literature material, a successful erp project, often needs to spend several year ti

18、mes, number thousands of us dollars can complete. again turns head looks at the home, along with erp skepticisms gaining ground, price war starting, erp took one kind of software suppliers product, has actually goes down the god world tendency. erp leader sap also promoted business the one product,

19、the price has been lower than 100,000.even if the erp software can achieve free, or like the ibm esteem according to the boundary which must collect fees, implements the angle from the entire enterprise, considers the personnel, training, the maintenance, the service reorganization, the re-developme

20、nt, three, n development, its expense should also in several 1,000,000 and even surely the scale. this speaking of the domestic enterprise, already was not the small number. but, some many enterprises harbor the beautiful dream, steps the erp implementation the difficult travel. in which also has ma

21、ny projects to be defeated comes to an end. but regarding these final survivors, whether can the halberd be also put in storage, drinks wine to sing loudly? in fact, the enterprise implements the erp project after the success will face implements a bigger risk. in future five to ten years in, some s

22、olid erp risk management mechanism had decided whether the enterprise can obtain benefits truly in the initial erp investment. in 1998 thomas h.davenport has published named puts in enterprise system the article in the harvard commerce commentary (putting the enterprise into the enterprise system).t

23、his article proposed systematically the enterprise system, or called the erp system the operation brings for the enterprise positive and negative directs the sound. simultaneously also directly proposed the future enterprise will have to face a risk: puts in the enterprise system the entire enterpri

24、se the risk. according to us project management association to the risk the definition, the risk is refers to the project advantageous or the disadvantageous element of certainty. the project is for completes the disposable endeavor which some unique product or the service station do, the project th

25、e distinctive quality had decided the project not impossible was by with the before identical way, simultaneously, the project which completed by and the before identical person must create the product or the service, as well as the project possibly involved the scope, the time and the cost all not

26、impossible started when the project completely to determine, therefore, carried on in the process in the project also corresponding to be able to appear the massive uncertainty, namely project risk. below this article mentioned the risk is refers to the project disadvantageously the element of certa

27、inty. exists to the project disadvantageous risk in any project, often and can give the project the advancement and the project success brings the negative influence. once the risk occurs, its influence is various, like causes the project product/service the function to be unable to satisfy the cust

28、omer the need, the project expense surpasses the budget, the project plan dragging or is compelled to cancel and so on, it finally manifests for customer degree of satisfaction depression. therefore, the recognition risk, the appraisal risk and take the measure to be supposed to be the risk manageme

29、nt have the extremely vital significance to the risk to the project management. risk management concrete content the project risk management mainly divides into following several steps: the risk recognition, the qualitative/quota risk analysis, the risk should to plan the establishment and the risk

30、monitoring. 1.risk recognitions the risk recognition, is refers distinguishes and records possibly has the adverse effect to the project the factor. because the project is in develops in unceasingly the change process, therefore the risk recognition also passes through in the entire project implemen

31、tation entire process, but is not merely the project initial stage. the risk recognition is not the disposable work, but need more systems, crosswise thought. possesses nearly about the project plan and the information all possibly takes the risk recognition the basis, like project progress and cost

32、 plan, work decomposition structure, project organizational structure, project scope, similar project historical information and so on. needs to pay attention, all risks all may carry on the management by no means through the risk recognition. the risk recognition only can discover the known risk (f

33、or example: in the known project organization some member ability cannot satisfy the request completely) or the known unknown risk (known-unknown, namely event name known, like customer side personnel participates in dynamics being insufficient); before but certain risks, as a result of the project

34、distinctive quality, not impossible to occur in it know in advance (unknown-unknown, namely unknown-unknown risk). 2.qualitative/quota risk analysis the latent risk quantity distinguishes which through the risk recognition process are very many, but these latent risks to the project the influence ar

35、e various. the risk analysis namely through the analysis, the comparison, the appraisal and so on each way, to determined various risks the importance, sorts to the risk and appraises it to the project possible consequence, thus causes the project to implement the personnel to be possible to concent

36、rate the main energy in the few in number main risk, thus enable the project the overall risk to be under the effective control. the risk analysis mainly may use the method includes: risk probability/influence appraisal matrix, sensitive analysis, simulation and so on. when carries on the above anal

37、ysis, mainly pays attention to following several risk factor: risk probability: namely the risk event occurs possible percentage expression. this numeral is, like the expert who obtains through the subjective judgment appraises, the interview or the basis before similar project historical informatio

38、n. risk influence: namely the risk has possibly the influence size which creates to the project. this kind of influence is possibly in the time, possibly is in the cost, also is possibly other various aspects. risk value (required value emv): the risk value = risk probability * risk influence, is to

39、 the risk the influence most direct appraisal which creates to the project, its overall evaluation probability with has affected two aspects the factors. 3.risks should plan the establishment the risk should lie in to the plan goal through the formulation corresponding measure, comes to be supposed

40、to the risk the threat which possibly creates to the project.most often uses should to threat several measures be: the circumvention, reduces, the shift, accepts. the circumvention, namely eliminates this risk through the elimination risk origin; reduces, namely through takes the measure to reduce t

41、he risk probability or the risk influence, thus achieved reduces the risk value the result; the shift, soon the risk shifts to another side, like purchase insurance, sub package and so on; accepts, namely does not take the measure to this risk, accepts result which it creates, or occurs after this r

42、isk uses the contingency plan to carry on processing again. selects what method to come specifically to be supposed to some risk, is decided in this risk value (emv), plans to adopt should to the measure possible cost, the project management personnel treat the risk the manner (utility function) the

43、 type and so on various aspects, cannot be generally spoken. the risk should be aims at the risk to the plan which distinguishes to carry on; regarding the unknown risk, not impossible to choose in advance the formulation corresponding to be supposed to plan or the contingency plan, therefore, may s

44、tockpile using the management should be right. 4.risk monitoring the risk monitoring mainly includes following several aspects the duty: 1) carrying on in the process in the project to track has distinguished the risk, the monitoring remaining risk and distinguishes the new risk: along with the proj

45、ect implementation as well as the risk should to the measure execution, each kind the influence factor be in the process to the project which changes unceasingly, therefore, needs in the entire project process, the time surveillance risk development and the change situation, determined follows the n

46、ew risk which certain risks vanishing comes and formulates the corresponding processing measure. 2) guaranteed the risk should to the plan execution and appraised the risk should to plan carry out the effect. the appraisal method may be the project cycle (stage) the natural review, the achievements

47、appraisal and so on. 3) accepts to the sharp-edged risk the risk takes the suitable flexible measure. through the risk monitoring process, the project personnel renews the project risk tabulation continually, and through the repetition above various steps guaranteed the project risk is at the contro

48、lled condition throughout. erp project implementation risk management the different type project has the different type risk. the erp project implementation risk has its particularity similarly. the following gives a briefing to in the erp project implementation process risk management measure, the

49、single opinion, only supplies the reference. 1.erp project implementation main risk and should to the measure as mentioned above, possesses nearly about the project plan and the information all possibly takes the risk recognition the basis, like project progress and cost plan, work decomposition str

50、ucture, project organizational structure, project scope, similar project historical information and so on. in the erp project risk recognition process, may take the project plan as the clue, the recognition project in various aspects risk. in the implementation process, should pay attention to follo

51、wing several aspects specially the risk: 1)project scope risk the project purchase management usually has three contract ways, namely: the solid fixed price or the total price contract, the cost reimburse (add reward) the contract, the unit price contract. the usual uncertainty is bigger, a risk big

52、ger project, more tends to in using depends on after the contract way. this also is overseas and the domestic part erp supplier uses in the implementation service according to the human day provides serves and charges the fee the reason. but selects this method, the buyer (i.e. customer) has the big

53、 risk, therefore, the domestic very many customers favor in work out the implementation contract of service by the fixed price. but this contract way, then (i.e. consultant side) has the big risk regarding the seller. under this premise, if the project scope definition is not clear, possibly causes

54、the round turns to have the difference to the project scope cognition: the seller hoped reduces the implementation scope as far as possible, by smallest cost closing performance; but the buyer hoped erp system all function many implementations, obtains as far as possible by the fixed price the great

55、est income. if the bilateral difference is big, cannot achieve consistently, then can create the efficiency inevitably to be low, wrangles mutually. therefore, in the erp project contract, should make as far as possible the clear limits to the project implementation scope, cuts cannot pause in the i

56、mplementation finance module perhaps the implementation receivable, the manipulation, the general ledger management and so on in stratification plane.rather multi-flowered some time before in project implementation scope limits work, also do not have in the project implementation process, facing erp

57、 many functions, the implementation side and the user side is unyielding, or the forced concessions, invests a bigger energy in the project, but causes the project not to be able to complete on time. 2)project progress risk about the erp project implementation cycle, at present has emphasizes fast t

58、he tendency in the propaganda. but erp project progress control certainly not easy matter, not only is decided by consultant firms ability, simultaneously also to a great extent receives the customer side to the erp expected value whether reasonable, to the scope controls whether effective, to project investment (including personnel time investment and fund and so on investment) whether enough and so on aspect influences. provides elder brother shan shitong by the divine land numerical co