上市公司内在价值分析外文翻译胡兵)0001

1、 宁波大红鹰学院 毕业论文外文翻译 所在学院 经济与管理学院 专业 财务管理 班级 11财管303班 学号 1131061111 姓名 胡兵 指导教师 任正 2014年11月01日 译文： 上市公司内在价值分析 一、 关于内在价值 随着中国资本市场的发展，中国股市将逐步走向成熟，价值投资将在未来 中国股市中占主导地位，证券市场的价值投资就是当证券的市场价格低于它的 内在价值时买入，并长期持有或当证券的市场价格高于它的内在价值一定程度 时卖出。因此，对于中国股市的价值投资而言首要问题是确定上市公司股票的 内在价值。同时为了风险投资，企业并购和资产重组等资本运作的需要，迫切 需要适合中国公司的可操

2、作性强的价值评估体系。本杰明 .格雷厄姆在证券分 析这本书中是这样描写内在价值这个概念的总结性地概括： 1、内在价值是无法确定具体数值的，难以把握的概念。 2、内在价值可根据公司历史收益数据来推算 ，但只可做参考 。因为从历史 收益数据是无法估算出不确定的未来收益的 。 3、虽然无法得出内在价值的精确数字，但内在价值可以用一个近似值范围 来表达并用它判断股价被高估或低估。 4 、市场价格经常偏离证券的实际价值。 5、当市场价格偏离证券的实际价值时，市场中会出现自我纠正的趋势。但 对某些证券价值的高估和低估经常会持续极长的一段时间。 国内外评估公司内在价值的主要方法有： （ 一 ） 资产价值基础

3、法 它是通过对公司资产进行估价的方式来评估公司的价值。目前国际上通行 的资产估价标准主要有 账面价值 重置成本法和清算价值等。 1、账面价值法 账面价值法是一种基于会计理论的方法 根据资产负债表得出净资产并进行 适当调整 但结果可能不代表盈利能力，特点是简便但不准确 2 、重置成本法 重置成本法是指以目前的价格水平重新建造一个与被评估资产完全相同或 类似的资产的成本 特点是立足于现在时点的资产价值 未考虑未来资产的收益 情况。 3 、清算价值法 清算价值法是基于公司的总资产在市场变现后减去总负债的价值，特点是 只考虑资产价值而没有考虑机构组织的无形资产和商誉( goodwill )适合于破 产

4、企业。 ( 二 ) 现金流量贴现法 现金流量贴现法的基石是现值规律。任何资产的价值等于其预期未来全部 现金流的现值总和。现金流量因所估价资产的不同而各异。对股票而言，现金 流是红利。对债券而言，现金流是利息和本金。对于一个实际项目而言，现金 流是税后净现金流。贴现率将取决于所预测的现金流的风险程度，资产风险越 高，贴现率就越高。反之，资产风险越低，贴现率就越低。根据现金流的来源 不同，用于评估公司内在价值的主要有以下三种： 1、股利贴现法 股利贴现法也就是将公司未来预期股利贴现公司目前的价值。股利法从理 论上能准确地计算出资产的真实价值，但在实际中很难操作。因为大部分企业 派发股利是不定期和不

5、定量的，部分企业在其成长期根就不发股利，所以很难 预测其股利派发情况并计算其价值。 2、公司自由现金流贴现法 公司自由现金流是指在支付了经营费用和所得税后，向包括债权人在内的 所有公司权利要求者支付现金之前的全部现金流。 3 、股权自由现金流贴现法 股权自由现金流是指公司在履行了偿还债务、弥补资本性支出、增加营运 资本等各种财务上的义务后所剩的那部分现金流。 从理论上讲对，有收益的资产，现金流量贴现法最能准确地计算出资产的 真实价值，现金流量贴现法被绝大多数专业文献认为是最科学，最成熟的公司 评估方法。 企业的价值等于该企业以适当的贴现率所贴现的预期现金流量现值，所以 这种方法要对公司资产未来

6、的现金流量进行估计，并要选择合理的贴现率，特 点是难度较大，操作比较复杂。 （三 ）市盈率法 如果能估计出目标公司未来可持续收益，而且股票市场存在一个平均的行 业市盈率，用公司的当年税后利润乘以行业平均市盈率就可比较简单地计算出 公司大致的价值，市盈率法操作性强，但其隐含的前提是当地的股票市场是一 个强式效率市场，即公司的市场价值等于内在价值，否则其计算结果与公司的 实际内在价值将可能产生极大的误差。 （四 ）其他方法 有可比交易法、可比公司法、分散加总估价法、目标公司股价历史分析 法、M&A乘数法、杠杆收购法、杠杆资本调整法和总收入乘数法等。通常是投 资银行在企业兼并，收购和重组中使用的方法

7、。 （五）经济增加值（EVA贴现法 经济增加值最基本的形式就是公司的剩余收入。也就是说，如果投资人得 到的投资回报等于投资人投资的期望收益，公司的剩余收入等于零，该项投资 的价值就等于该项投资的投资额。如果公司产生经济增加值，将公司未来的经 济增加值折现后再加上公司的投资总额就应该等于公司的内在价值。 二、内在价值传统分析原理评价 内在价值传统分析原理，融入各种财务和管理等理论，已形成较完备的原 理体系，并已经在实务操作中深入人心，取得了较好的效果。而巴菲特则将内 在价值传统分析原理运用和深化到了极致，在现实投资世界里取得了巨大成 功。但内在价值传统分析原理还存在一些缺陷，需要进一步改进。 从

8、方法层面来看，内在价值传统分析原理的主要缺陷就是没有形成一个统 一分析框架： (1) 定性分析较系统，但缺乏一个统一、简单而严密的因果分析框架。 (2) 定量分析只分析财务后果，没有追溯至导致该结果的原因。 (3) 定性与定量分析之间没有建立应有的因果联系，没有统一的框架将定性 分析和定量分析融于一体。 (4) 定性分析、定量分析和价值估算之间缺乏紧密的因果逻辑联系。 这篇文章对于上市公司内在价值的分析还只是初步的，在未来我们可以考 虑对更多不同行业的公司进行案例研究，以完善内在价值因果分析原理和程 序。因为不同行业的公司存在不同的行业特点和公司特点，应用研究可以起到 较好的反馈效果。现有的程

9、序只是个初步的方案，它需要大量的案例研究来 加以修正。例如：我们在动因的选取上，只选择了宏观、行业及企业动因的分 类法。在后续的研究中，我们可以针对分析的需要，选取不同的动因分类，构 建不同的内在价值因果分析表。本文在分析案例时，主要根据企业实际采用了 利润指标，在后续的研究中，可以针对不同行业选择不同的特殊现金流指标， 这有赖于分析者对于该行业的深入理解。 原文： The intrinsic value of the listed companies is analyzed First, about the intrinsic value. Along with the developmen

10、t of Chinas capital market, Chinas stock market will be gradually maturing, the value investment will account for the dominant position in Chinas stock market in the future, the value of the securities market is when the market price of the securities investment below its intrinsic value when buying

11、, and hold for a long time or when the stock market price is higher than its intrinsic value to a certain extent when selling. Therefore, for the value of Chinas stock market investment primary problem is to determine the intrinsic value of the shares of listed companies. To risk investment at the s

12、ame time, the needs of the enterprise merger and reorganization of assets in the capital operation, the urgent need for Chinas strong operability of value evaluation system of the company. Benjamin graham in securities analysis in the book are intrinsic value is summarized in the summary of the conc

13、ept: 1, the intrinsic value is unable to determine the specific numerical, difficult to grasp the concept. 2, intrinsic value according to the company history data to calculate returns, but can only be used for your reference. Because earnings figures from history is unable to estimate the uncertain

14、ty of future earnings. 3, although cant get an accurate number of the intrinsic value, but the intrinsic value can express and use it in a range of approximation to determine share price is overvalued or undervalued. 4, often deviate from the stock market price of real value. 5, when the real value

15、of the market price deviating from the securities market will be the trend of self correcting. But for some overvalued or undervalued securities value often lasts for very long period of time. Second, to assess the intrinsic value of the companys main methods at home and abroad are: (a) asset value

16、based method It is the way through the study of the valuation of the companys assets to evaluate the value of the company. Current international book value of assets valuation standards are on the replacement cost method and the liquidation value, etc. 1, book value method Based on the theory of the

17、 accounting book value method is a kind of method According to the balance sheet net assets and make appropriate adjustments But the result may not represent the profitability, the characteristic is easy but not accurate. 2, the replacement cost method Replacement cost method refers to the current p

18、rice level to build a evaluation, and to be identical or similar assets cost characteristic is now based on the point value of the assets Did not think of the future asset returns. 3, the liquidation value Liquidation value method is based on the companys total assets minus the value of total liabil

19、ities, after market to liquidate characteristic is only considered assets value without considering the organizations intangible assets and goodwill (goodwill) is suitable for the bankrupt enterprise. (2) cash flow (DCF) method The cornerstone of discounted cash flow method is present value rule. Th

20、e value of any asset is equal to the total present value of all cash flows in the future. Cash flow for the assets valuation varies. For stock, cash flow is dividends. For bonds, cash flow is the interest and principal. For a practical project, cash flow is the after-tax net cash flows. The discount

21、 rate will depend on the degree of risk of the cash flow forecast, the higher risk assets, the higher the discount rate. On the contrary, the lower the risk assets, the lower the discount rate. Depending on the source of the cash flow, can be used to assess the intrinsic value of the company mainly

22、has the following three: 1, the dividend discount method Dividend discount method and the companys future is expected dividend discount the value of the company now. Dividend method theoretically can accurately calculate the real value of the assets, but in practice it is difficult to operate. Becau

23、se most corporate dividend distribution is irregular and not quantitative, some enterprises in its root is not hair dividends for a long time, so it is difficult to predict its dividend payments and calculate its value. 2, corporate free cash flow discount method Free cash flow is refers to the comp

24、any after pay for business expenses and income tax, to all companies, including creditors rights requirement to pay cash before all of the cash flow. 3, equity free cash flow discount method Free cash flow of equity is to point to in the performance of the company to repay the debt, compensate for c

25、apital expenditure, increase working capital and other financial obligations after left that part of the cash flow. Theoretically to have earnings assets, cash flow (DCF) method can accurately calculate the most the real value of the assets, cash flow (DCF) method is considered to be the most scient

26、ific, most professional literature method to estimate the most mature company. Equal to the value of the enterprise to present value of expected future cash flows discounted by the appropriate discount rate, so this kind of method to estimate the future cash flow of the asset to the company, and to

27、choose the reasonable discount rate, features is difficult, and complicated operation. (3) p/e ratio method If we can estimate the target companys future sustainable yield, and there is a stock market average p/e ratio of industry, with the companys after-tax profit multiplied by the industry averag

28、e p/e ratio can be relatively simple to calculate the value of company is roughly, p/e ratio method and feasible, but the underlying premise is that the local stock market is a strong form efficiency market, the companys market value is equal to the intrinsic value, otherwise the calculation results

29、 with the companys actual intrinsic value will probably have a great error. (4) other methods Disperse aggregation have comparable transactions, comparable companies, valuation method, the target companys stock price history analysis, M&A multiplier, leveraged buyouts, leveraged capital adjustment m

30、ethod and income multiplier method, etc. Usually investment Banks in enterprise merger, acquisition and reorganization method. (5) economic value added (EVA) discount Economic value added of the most basic form is surplus income of the company. In other words, if investors get the expected return on

31、 investment is equal to the investors investment benefit, the companys residual income is equal to zero, the investment is equal to the value of the investment. If the company to produce economic value added, will be the future of the company after discounting Eva plus the companys total investment

32、should be equal to the intrinsic value of the company. Three, the intrinsic value of traditional analysis principle of evaluation Intrinsic value traditional analysis principle, blend in a variety of financial and management theory, has formed a relatively complete theory system, and has been deeply

33、 rooted in the hearts of the people in the practice, good results have been achieved. Mr Buffett has applied intrinsic value traditional analysis principle and deepen to perfection, investment in the real world has been a huge success. But the inherent value of traditional analysis principle also ha

34、s some defects, need to be further improved. From the method level, intrinsic value is the main defect of traditional analysis principle did not form a unified analysis framework: (1) the qualitative analysis of the system, but the lack of a unified, simple and strict causal analysis framework. (2)

35、quantitative analysis only financial consequences, not back to the cause of the results. (3) there is no established between qualitative and quantitative analysis of causal relationship, no unified framework will combine qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. (4) the qualitative analysis, q

36、uantitative analysis, and lack of causal logic closely relationship between value estimate. This article for the analysis of the intrinsic value of listed companies is only a preliminary, in the future we can consider to case studies of companies in different industries, to improve the intrinsic value causal analysis principle and procedures. Because the industry characteristics of different companies in different industries, and the characteristics of the company, applied research can have a good feedback. Existing programs just a preliminary plan, it needs a large number of cas