2020年半导体行业报告：半导体设备板块

1、1. 2. .3 .4 2.1. 2.2. 2.3. . 4 . 5 . 5 + 3.7 3.1. 3.2. 3.3. 3.4. . 7 58%. 914nm 64 2020 128 28nm. 12 . 133/ 4.1N.14 4.1. 4.2. 4.3. 4.4. 4.5. 4.6. 4.7. 4.8. 4.9. . 14 . 15 . 22 . 24 . 24 . 25 ATESOC. 26 . 27 . 28 STI 2 / 31 1. 2016/2017 3-4 246,800 114nmFinFET 2020 2019 2019Q41%12nm 31.60 28nm 2019 5

2、8% 214nm 1220209 55nm 3 4 64 / 2019Q3 9 2020 646452021 2019 5/128 DRAM 10nm8Gb DDR412 02 14nm N011 2017-202014%2% 25% PVD17%CVD 2% CMP 3% 14% 22% 01128 1N 1387 17% 5000 10%67%6% 3 / 31 2. 2.1. 2050 AMD 2070 80 1987 2090 DR AM DR AM 90 PC 21 PC 4 / 31 1 1950s1960s1970s1980s1990s20 PC)/5G/AI/IoT ASIC&

3、 MPU)DRAMDRAMSOC) 2.2. 20142020 20% 2030 16/14nm 2025 150 12 9 20157020251002030 202514nm 2014 1,3875000 2.3. 2016/2017 6,800 3-4 24 5 / 31 1 6 / 31 3. 3.1. 10nm-7nm-5nm 5G AI IoT IC 28nm-14nm-10nm7nm-5nm-3nm 7nm-5nm-3nm 2018 7nm 7nm 7nm20205nm 2019 355nm 3nm 2019 10 2020 202063nm 5nm 2020 20194 5nm

4、5nm 2021 20205nm 3nm 3nm GAAF ET GAAF inFET FinFET 50% 2022 5nm3nm 2021 35% 30% 3nm 3nm 14nm/12nm FinFET 16nm FinFET 22nmFD-SOI 12nm 2019 50% 5nm 3nm 12nm FD-SOI 10nm FinFET7nm FD-SOI14nm/12nm FinFET 12nm FD-SOI 12nm Intel 201910nm10nm 7nmIntel Intel intel2021 2023 7nm 20227nm+ 5nm2021 7 / 31 EUVDRA

5、M DDR5DRAM 10nm 16GB 2020 32GB 14nmFinFET 20192019 14nm 1% 20201. 3% 200 2020619A14 1440% (14nm) 14FinFET 143.5 60003.5 202014nm 202012nm12nm FinFET 14nm 28nm14nm 12 202014nm 92019 55nm12 NANDDRAM 3D NAND 24030 642019 128962020 / 4128QLC 3D NAND 128 2020 2021 64 5/ 128 6 5 6410 202020 20199DRAM 10nm

6、8Gb DDR412 2020 DDR5 LPDDR5 GDDR6 DDR4 LPDDR4 DRAM 8 / 31 28nm/14nm 2 7nm/5nm 3.2. 9 / 31 0.35m 2001 14 0.18m 2014 28nm 2020 128nm 28 2015314nm F inFET 2014 18 11 19 2020 17 16 14nm 7nm 12nm FinFET 192 14nm FinFET 2 20010.18m 2012Q328nm 28nm 40nm 2013.9 2014.1 2015.3 2017.3 28nm 14nm FinFET 17 14nm

7、FinFET CEO7nm 2018Q2 2018Q4 28nm HKC+ 28nm HKC 14nm FinFET 12nm FinFET 14nm FinFET2019.02 2019.03 2019Q1 28nm HKC+ 12nm FinFET FinFET N+1 2019Q2 2019.11 14nm 14nm FinFET 14nm FinFET 2020Q1 2020Q2 14nm FinFET A14nm 2018 447,750 300mm 2019 300mm 448,5008 830 10 / 31 3 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q

8、1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 200mm109,000 108,000 106,000 109,000 112,000 115,000 112,000 115,000115,000 4,500300mm 300mm 200mm 200mm 300mm 38,25038,25033,750 94,500 53,000 40,300 6,750 22,50022,50018,00018,0004,500 103,500 96,750 500,000 50,000 94,500 105,750 112,500 112,500 117,000117,000 63,000

9、55,000 60,000 42,000 6,750 58,000 45,000 6,750 57,000 50,000 6,750 58,000 52,000 6,750 58,000 55,000 - 35,000 6,750 35,000 6,750 65,250 - 72,000 - 74,250 - 74,250 - 74,250 - 81,000 - 84,60092,250 6,750 - 112,500 9,000 300mm 300mm - -40,00042,32542,32542,32542,32542,325476,000 115,000 300mm 447,750 4

10、49,075 450,875 451,325 466,575 482,575 443,850 448,500 90% 20124.99201920 21.94%202031.60 4 20122013 6.51 2014 9.59 2015201620172018 17.56 2019 18.78 93.91% 1.218 6.09% 20.00 100% 2020E 42.00 98.59% 0.60 -14.05 89.08% 1.722 26.2624.58 98.81% 0.295 - - 84.55% 1.19 94.49% 0.559 5.51% 10.14 100% 97.46%

11、 0.685 75.47% 5.71 -15.45% 7.70 10.92% 15.77 2.54% 26.95 1.19% 24.88 24.53% 23.27 1.41% 42.60 100% 4.99 100%100%100%100%100%100% 90% 201914nm 1% 31% 35% 55 65nm0.15 0.18 5 2018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q4 6.40% 2019Q1 5.10% 2019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q1 5.10%6.80%5.70%7.50%4.60%5.60%5.50% 33.60%40.30%46.30%44.70

12、%43.00%48.90%46.10%44.40%48.90% 11 / 31 35.60% 8.50% 37.10% 7.40% 32.50% 7.50% 32.10% 8.00% 32.50% 9.80% 31.10% 6.70% 34.90% 4.80% 38.10% 3.10% 35.40% 2.90% 15.50% 2018Q1 83.50% 9.50%6.20%8.80%9.60%8.70%8.60%8.90%7.70% 2018Q2 90.00% 2018Q3 94.40% 2018Q4 93.20% 2019Q1 94.20% 2019Q2 93.90% 2019Q3 92.5

13、0% 2019Q4 91.60% 2020Q1 91.10% 8.90% 16.50%10.00%5.60%6.80%5.80%6.10%7.50%8.40% 2018Q1 28.60% 62.40% 9.00% 2018Q2 33.00% 58.60% 8.40% 2018Q3 33.00% 57.90% 9.10% 2018Q4 31.70% 57.50% 10.80% 2019Q1 32.30% 53.90% 13.80% 2019Q2 27.50% 56.90% 15.60% 2019Q3 24.70% 60.50% 14.80% 2019Q4 22.20% 65.10% 12.70%

14、 2020Q1 25.50% 61.60% 12.90% 2018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q1 14nm1.00% 5.00% 16.20% 31.00% 1.50% 6.20% 35.00% 4.10% 1.30% 6.50% 14.90% 32.60% 1.60% 5.40% 33.40% 4.30% 28nm3.20% 21.70% 20.90% 3.80% 7.60% 38.90% 3.90% 8.60% 17.50% 24.20% 1.20% 7.60% 37.10% 3.80% 7.10% 18.70% 21.

15、00% 1.40% 8.70% 39.50% 3.60% 5.40% 20.30% 23.00% 1.70% 7.30% 38.70% 3.60% 3.00% 15.30% 21.80% 2.20% 7.40% 46.00% 4.30% 3.80% 19.20% 26.20% 1.70% 6.50% 38.60% 4.00% 4.30% 18.50% 29.30% 1.30% 6.60% 35.80% 4.20% 40/45 nm 55/65 nm 90 nm 0.11/0.13 0.15/0.18 0.25/0.35 3.3. 909 12 820909 387 20181028nm 4 6

16、 12 2017.08 2018.02 2018.03 2018.12 F1 2019.06 2019.09 12 10025 12 / 31 14 12 2016 12 2018 05 2018 10 1228 387 4 3.4. NAND 7 3D NAND 2016.12 2016.12 2017.07 32 2017.09 3D NAND 3D NAND 3D NAND 3D NAND 2017.11 32 2018.0420 2018Q4 32 2019Q150003000 2019.09 64 2020.011030 202032020Q45 13 / 31 4.1N 4.1.

17、2019 13% 597.6 2.7%7.4%134.52005 23%2019 5% 34 23% 800 600 400 200 0 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 20% 6% 13%16%15% 15% 11%12% 20% 16% 9% 9% 7% 8% 7% 6%7% 6%6% 4% 0% 27% WindWind 80% 75% 24% 23% 18% 14nm 7nm 5nm 14 / 31 56 SEM ISEM I SEMI20 50107100 78 SEM ISEM I 4.2. 01 PVD 128 CVDCMP 1N 2017-2020 17% 57%13%

18、TEL 13%2017-20182019-2020 25% 0% 63%75%0% TEL 16% 2017-2018 2019-2020TEL21% 15 / 31 92017-201810 2019-2020 0% 16% 25% 21% TEL 63% 75% 2017-2020 5% 25% AM AT 2019-2020 13% TEL TEL57%2017-2018 73%52% AMAT 27% 2019-2020 0%33% 8% 2017-2018TEL AM ATTEL 39% 11 2017-201812 2019-2020 6% 8% 27% TEL TEL AMAT

19、53% AMAT 33% 73% 2017-2020TEL74% 26%2017-2018 45% 2019-2020TEL 94% 16 / 31 13 2017-201814 2019-2020 6% 45% TELTEL 55% 94% 2017-2020 ASML 38% ASML72% CANON 62% 28%2017-2018 2019-202083% CANON 17% 15 2017-201816 2019-2020 17% 38% ASMLASML CANONCANON 62% 83% 2017-2020 14% TEL Lam Research 11% AMAT Scre

20、en 7% 2017-2018 54% 7% 4% 2% 2019-20202019-2020 4% Research 13% Lam Lam Research50%59% 2% 15% TEL AMAT Screen 9% AM AT 9% 5% ScreenTEL12% 9% 7% 6% 17 / 31 17 2017-201818 2019-2020 0% 9% 4% 2% 5% 6% 7% Lam Research Lam Research 9% TELTEL 9% AMAT Screen AMAT Screen 50% 12% 59% 15% 13% 2017-2020 3% AM

21、AT83% 14%2017-20182019-2020 30% 5% 2019-2020 70% 5%AM AT 89% 19 2017-201820 2019-2020 5% 5% 30% AMAT AMAT 70% 90% PVD 22% 2017-2020 17% TEL 8% 33% AM AT PVDAM AT56% TEL 2019-20206% 2019-2020 2017-2018 0% 8% 67% 50% 33% 18 / 31 21 2017-2018 PVD22 2019-2020 PVD 8% 8% 33% AMAT TELAMAT 50% 67%34% CVD201

22、7-2020 28% CVDTEL32% Lam Research 27% AM AT 2019-2020 2%11%2017-2018 20%0%4% TEL 42% Lam ResearchAM AT 19% Lam Research30% 25% AM AT40% 23 2017-2018 CVD24 2019-2020 CVD 0% 10% 11% 4% 20% TEL TEL 42% Lam Research AMAT Lam Research AMAT 18% 40% 30% 25% ALD 50% TEL 3% 2017-2020ALD 13% KO KUS AI ELECTRI

23、C 11%23% Lam Research 2017-2018 KO KUS AI ELECTRIC 56% 12% 26% ALDLam Research ALD 2019-2020 T EL 19 / 31 25 22017-2018 ALD26 2019-2020 ALD 3% 12% 3% KOKUSAI ELECTRIC TEL Lam Research 56% 26% CMP2017-2020 2019-2020 AMAT 2019-202086%14%2017-2018 CMP26% 27 2017-201828 2019-2020 26% AMAT AMAT 74% 100%

24、2017-2020 18% Screen 3% 27%22% Lam Research 2019-2020 31% 0% Lam Research 19% 25% 2017-2018 24%5% 9% Screen33%19% 20 / 31 29 2017-201830 2019-2020 19%19% 33% Screen Screen 5% 47% Lam Research Lam Research 25% 24% 19% 9% 2017-2020 2% 63% SEMICS 32% CASCAD E3%2017-2018 53% 0% 2019-2020SEMICS 65% SEMIC

25、S 31%33% CASCAD E11% 31 2017-201832 2019-2020 2% 5% 11% 33% SEMICS SEMICS CASCADE 53% 31% 65% 2017-2020NEXTEST20% Advantest21% KLA11% NEXTEST 10%39%2017-2018 2019-2020 20% Advantest KLA 10% 12% 8% 28% KLA 13%11%9% 21 / 31 33 2017-201834 2019-2020 9% 27% 29% 12% NEXTEST SYSTEM Advantest KLA NEXTEST S

26、YSTEM Advantest KLA 55%13% 9% 11% 8% 27% 4.3. 20146 9 987.2400 1,387.2 17% 1,200 6% 15.6% 67%10% 6% 8 % 100.007.21 0.36 0.29 1.08 1.73 5.00 4.00201514.59 11.9815.00 24.00 2016 2017 1.900.14 14.50 28.30 11.70 1.05 2.04 0.84 9.72 5.62 9.14 20181.500.1114.59 22 / 31 6.29 2019 - 0.040.00 205.94 27.00 64

27、.39 6.00 14.85 1.95 4.64 0.43 2015 2016 11.30 32.00 13.77 43.00 116.00 18.10 14.00 6.00 3.10 8.36 1.30 1.01 0.43 4.33 4.33 1.87 2.45 2017 2018 60.00 60.00 26.00 33.94 32 27.04 5.000.36 10.71 10.00 500.14 20.31 5.00 0.77 0.72 36.05 1.46 0.36 0.78 1.30 0.49 1.16 2.09 0.68 8.33 0.35 0.03 0.12 0.43 2014

28、 2015 2017 19 10.83 18.00 6.80 21.72 9.44 21.72 19 16.09 29.00 9.49 2018 6.17 115.52 4.802014 2015 0.409.85 10.03 10.03 1.65 6.00 2016 2019 - 9.11 1.00 0.66 0.07 22.96 5.00 3.09 0.05 0.22 1.66 0.36 0.22 0.00 0.02 2015 201611.57 23 / 31 2017 2018 5.50 0.30 0.40 0.02 1.02 5.73 1514.16 4.4. 02 14nm 011

29、N 9 Wind2020629 4.5. PVD CVD 201940.58 33.01% 22.10% 9.38 3.09 32.24% 2020 0.26 32.49% 8.47pc t36.41% 201936.36 14.15%20.57% 202039.78 2019 2.25pct 31.91 40.53%2.15pct 2019Q4 26.58% 35.23% 7.57% 78.64%0.51pct 24 / 31 8.4720.88% 25.93 7.60%59.89%10.45pct 20196.10 0.780.50 8.47 31.91 2.42 12 2019 5G P

30、ERC SiCGaN PEC VD PVD PVD CVD201912 PVD 65-28nm Hardmask PVD Al-Pad PVD ALD 14nm LPC VD 20 IC 9.1+5.9 5.4 5/7 + 517.8+2.2 26.4 14 110%2 28 320 356450 88450 4.6. LED 25 / 31 LED 201919.47 1.48 83% 0.64 18.77% 41.48% 18% 3% 1.89 2.68 107.51% 16.16 43%14%4.25 21.81% 1.3334.92%0.59pct 1pct2019 35%2018 47.52% MOCVD26.33% 60.55%