ASCENDASREIT(AREIT.SP)：INDUSTRIALLANDLORDBESTINCLASS0116

1、18.1 % 32.8 1.88 8.6 5.0 co. reg no: 198700034e mica (p) : 099/03/2012 singapore results review buy (unchanged) share price: sgd2.48 target price: sgd2.60 (unchanged) ong kian lin ongkianlinmaybank-.sg (65) 6432 1470 stock information description: ascendas reit is a property trust constituted by a t

2、rust deed. it owns and invests in a diverse income- producing portfolio comprising business parks (including science park), light industrial, hi-tech industrial and logistics properties in singapore. 16 january 2013 ascendas reit industrial landlord - best in class 3q-9m fy3/13 results inline. 9mfy3

3、/13 revenue at sgd430.5m, was 75% of ours and 78% of consensus estimate. 3qfy3/13 revenue at sgd145.2m, was 25% of ours and 26% of consensus estimate. 9mfy3/13 dpu at 10.68 sg-cts (+6.2% yoy) was 75% of ours and 76% of consensus estimates. 3qfy3/13 dpu at 3.62 sg-cts (+2.5% qoq, +4.0% yoy) was 25% o

4、f ours and 26% of consensus estimates. aggregate leverage inched up to 32.8% from 32.5% last quarter, following funding of committed investments. all-in-financing costs for 3qfy3/13 averaged 3.19% (2q: 3.15%) with an average term of debt of 3.9 years (2q: 4.2 years). stable portfolio continues to de

5、liver. occupancy rate (same-store basis) for the portfolio and multi-tenanted buildings (mtb) remains flat qoq at to 96.6% and 93.4% respectively. 3qfy3/13 weighted average lease to expiry was 3.8 years, with only 2.1% of income due for renewal for the remaining fy3/13. positive rental reversion on

6、renewal range between 5.5%-25.3% throughout all segments of the portfolio boosting qoq npi margin (from ticker: shares issued (m): market cap (usd m): 3-mth avg daily turnover (usd m): st index: free float (%): major shareholders: ascendas funds mgmt ltd key indicators roe annualised (%) debt-to-dep

7、osited assets (%): nav/shr (sgd): interest cover (x): historical chart areit sp 2,238.9 4,533.8 11.7 3,196.07 77 71.8% to 72.1%) and yields (from 6.6% to 6.7%). ytd rental reversion of 13.9% was achieved for the portfolio. business park exposure not fatal. areits business/science park portfolio cons

8、titutes 38% of our fy3/14 gav and gross revenue. we are heartened that a-reit has secured commitment for about 31% of the lettable space (complete in 3q12, 223k sqft) at nexusone-north last quarter, despite the onslaught of 7m sqft of new known supply in 2012- 2015. we noted that the majority of thi

9、s supply (81%) is in the central region (one north and mapletree business city), where areit has ten out of 23 existing properties. according to our estimates, the central region assets comprises 40% of areits business park revenue and nla. predominantly, areits business park portfolio (60%) is stil

10、l concentrated in the east and west region, namely the international business park (ibp) and changi business park (cbp). at 94% occupancy for business park with mostly mnc tenants, we think areit stands in good stead to weather the impending supply. new asset enhancement initiative. areit has also i

11、nitiated enhancement work at 31 international business park, at a cost of sgd13.2m, to take advantage of prospective future demand in the area. the aei will complete by 3q13. we raise our fy3/13-3/15 dpu by 0-0.34% in view of the enhancement. we continue to like a-reit for its stable dpu yield, heal

12、thy lease expiry (25% of income expiring per annum) and debt maturity profile. reiterate buy with an unchanged ddm-derived tp of sgd2.60. ascendas reit summary earnings table fye mar (sgd m)fy3/2011a fy3/2012a fy3/2013f fy3/2014ffy3/2015f performance: 52-week high/low 1-mth absolute (%) 3.3 relative

13、 (%) 2.4 sgd2.51 /sgd1.845 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr -0.8 14.8 24.6 -5.5 7.6 8.8 ytd 4.6 3.7 revenue net property income distributable income dpu (cents) dpu yield (%) p/bv(x) gearing (%) (debt to deposited assets) roe (%) 447.6 339.4 248.0 13.2 5.3 1.3 35.1 17.6 503.3 368.3 281.7 13.6 5.5 1.3 37.6 12.6 572.

14、0 415.3 321.2 14.4 5.8 1.4 34.5 8.6 592.5 429.6 324.6 14.5 5.8 1.4 35.1 8.7 617.0 447.8 327.8 14.6 5.9 1.4 35.6 8.7 source: company, maybank ke estimates see appendix i for important disclosures and analyst certifications ascendas reit industrial cooling measures. effective on 12 jan 2013, the gover

15、nment has introduced the sellers stamp duty (ssd) to the industrial property segment to curb speculative activity. the rationale being that prices of industrial properties have doubled over the last three years. industrial properties and land bought and sold within three years will henceforth incur

16、ssds starting from 15% if sold within the first year (stepped down at 5% for each subsequent passing year). we also noted that the ssd may be remitted for developers sale of the industrial properties developed by them. as such we think the impact on industrial landlords will be minimal because of th

17、e following: the policy intent is targeted at speculators and not long-term owners of industrial assets. it is also unlikely that industrial reits will need to divest properties held for less than three years (since majority of assets should be income-producing real estate). since developers are rem

18、itted from ssd, this will not impact sponsors injection into the reit or acquisitions from third-party developers. speculative activity will be restrained moving forward. nonetheless, we do not think that capital values for industrial assets will be impacted by more than 5% in 2013, given underlying

19、 genuine demand from industrialists (barring a macroeconomic downturn). as of 3q12, the industrial price index has risen by 103% vis-vis three years ago. nonetheless, the industrial rental index is only up 39%. we do not think that rentals (which affect dpu for s-reits) will be affected materially,

20、taking into account that leasing activity amongst mncs and smes remains strong, and this should provide price support for rentals. figure 1:sellers stamp duty on industrial properties source: iras 16 january 2013page 2 of 14 1990q11990q21990q31990q41991q11991q21991q31991q41992q11992q21992q31992q4199

21、3q11993q21993q31993q41994q11994q21994q31994q41995q11995q21995q31995q41996q11996q21996q31996q41997q11997q21997q31997q41998q11998q21998q31998q41999q11999q21999q31999q42000q12000q22000q32000q42001q12001q22001q32001q42002q12002q22002q32002q42003q12003q22003q32003q42004q12004q22004q32004q42005q12005q2200

22、5q32005q42006q12006q22006q32006q42007q12007q22007q32007q42008q12008q22008q32008q42009q12009q22009q32009q42010q12010q22010q32010q42011q12011q22011q32011q42012q12012q22012q3 1990q11990q21990q31990q41991q11991q21991q31991q41992q11992q21992q31992q41993q11993q21993q31993q41994q11994q21994q31994q41995q119

23、95q21995q31995q41996q11996q21996q31996q41997q11997q21997q31997q41998q11998q21998q31998q41999q11999q21999q31999q42000q12000q22000q32000q42001q12001q22001q32001q42002q12002q22002q32002q42003q12003q22003q32003q42004q12004q22004q32004q42005q12005q22005q32005q42006q12006q22006q32006q42007q12007q22007q320

24、07q42008q12008q22008q32008q42009q12009q22009q32009q42010q12010q22010q32010q42011q12011q22011q32011q42012q12012q22012q3 200 190 180 160 150 140 ascendas reit figure 2:industrial ppi has appreciated by 103% since 3q09 industrial price index (#1)warehouse price indexmultiple-user factory price index ur

25、a property price index (4q98=100) 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 source: ura (4q98=100) figure 3:while industrial pri has only appreciated by 39% industrial rental index (#1)warehouse rental indexmultiple-user factory rental index ura property rental index (4q98=100) 13

26、0 120 110 100 90 80 16 january 2013 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 source: ura (4q98=100) page 3 of 14 ascendas reit figure 4: 3q and no part of the research analysts compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. reminder s

27、tructured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. the market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financ

28、ial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own anal

29、ysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. no part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of mke. ong seng yeow | executive director, may

30、bank kim eng research definition of ratings maybank kim eng research uses the following rating system: return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) return is expected to be be

31、low -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) applicability of ratings the respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. reports o

32、n companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies. some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear): adex = advertising expenditure bv = book value cagr = compounded annual growth rate capex = c

33、apital expenditure cy = calendar year dcf = discounted cashflow dps = dividend per share ebit = earnings before interest and tax ebitda = ebit, depreciation and amortisation eps = earnings per share ev = enterprise value 16 january 2013 fcf = free cashflow fv = fair value fy = financial year fye = f

34、inancial year end mom = month-on-month nav = net asset value nta = net tangible asset p = price p.a. = per annum pat = profit after tax pbt = profit before tax pe = price earnings peg = pe ratio to growth per = pe ratio qoq = quarter-on-quarter roa = return on asset roe = return on equity rosf = ret

35、urn on shareholders funds wacc = weighted average cost of capital yoy = year-on-year ytd = year-to-date page 13 of 14 ascendas reit malaysia maybank investment bank berhad (a participating organisation of bursa malaysia securities berhad) 33rd floor, menara maybank, 100 jalan tun perak, 50050 kuala

36、lumpur tel: (603) 2059 1888; fax: (603) 2078 4194 stockbroking business: level 8, tower c, dataran maybank, no.1, jalan maarof 59000 kuala lumpur tel: (603) 2297 8888 fax: (603) 2282 5136 philippines maybank atr kim eng securities inc. 17/f, tower one & exchange plaza ayala triangle, ayala avenue ma

37、kati city, philippines 1200 tel: (63) 2 849 8888 fax: (63) 2 848 5738 south asia sales trading kevin foy kevinfoymaybank-.sg tel: (65) 6336-5157 us toll free: 1-866-406-7447 singapore maybank kim eng securities pte ltd maybank kim eng research pte ltd 9 temasek boulevard #39-00 suntec tower 2 singap

38、ore 038989 tel: (65) 6336 9090 fax: (65) 6339 6003 hong kong kim eng securities (hk) ltd level 30, three pacific place, 1 queens road east, hong kong tel: (852) 2268 0800 fax: (852) 2877 0104 thailand maybank kim eng securities (thailand) public company limited 999/9 the offices at central world, 20th - 21st floor, rama 1 roa