PROPERTY：PRICEHIKESMOREMODESTTHANREPORTED;POLICYRISKREMAINLOW0104

1、deutsche bank markets research asia china strategy periodical made in china date 3 january 2013 michael tong, cfa jun ma, ph.d property: price hikes more modest chief economist research analyst (+852) 2203 8308 (+852) 2203 6167 than reported; policy risk remain low key points china prop weekly - vol

2、ume continued its strong momentum in the 4th week of dec (jason ching) lin li, ph.d strategist (+852) 2203 6187 china property - affordability continues to improve (tony tsang) daily market statistics02/01/2013 china property - inventory situations continue to improve (tony tsang theme of the day ch

3、ina property - actual price hikes more modest than reported; policy risk remains low (jason ching) headlines on developers hiking prices have sparked concerns of increasing policy risk. we have explicitly visited key cities and found that the situation has performance hsi h-share a300 volume hsi h-s

4、hare a300 price 23,312 11,898 2,523 price 2,129 2,507 8,200 1d% chg 2.8 3.9 0.0 1d% chg 67.8 69.4 0.0 1m% chg 5.5 10.7 15.2 1m% chg 14.1 14.5 55.6 been exaggerated, with asp increases limited to city-center projects and in the 3-5% range. while we expect prices to rise in 2013 on falling new supply,

5、 this will be moderate and gradual, on the back of purchase restrictions, mortgage restrictions and restrictive lending towards developers. moreover, as large developers have a much bigger market share now and tend to be more indexes hsi epsg per pbr cy2011 8.9% 12.6 1.6 14/12/2012 cy2012 cy2013 4.9

6、% 6.9% 12.0 11.2 1.5 1.3 sensible in their pricing strategies, the excessive price increase witnessed inhsceicy2011cy2012cy2013 2h09 is unlikely to be repeated. thus, policy risk ahead is still low, in our view. (jason ching 852 2203 6205) http:/pull.db- epsg per pbr msci hk 15.3% 0.3% 8.4 9.3 1.4 1

7、.4 cy2011 cy2012 3.9% 9.0 1.3 cy2013 epsg13.5%-0.2%9.1% asia data flash - china pmi: steady recovery continues (jun ma) chinas official manufacturing pmi remained steady in december at 50.6. per pbr msci china 14.0 17.3 1.1 1.4 cy2011 cy2012 15.9 1.3 cy2013 although slightly below the market consens

8、us of 51.0, we still view this data epsg13.4%0.9%8.8% point positive as it reconfirmed the modest expansion seen in the past few months and reported by hsbc pmi. (jun ma 852 2203 8308) http:/pull.db- 1937/43101423/db_dataflashasia_2013-01-02_0900b8c0861ca965.pdf per 9.5 11.0 10.1 pbr 1.5 1.6 1.4 dat

9、a for 2011 are calculated using members, weights and prices from the 31st of december of that year db economic forecasts china prop weekly - strong sales momentum continues well into the year-end hong kong gdp (%) 2012f 1.3 2013f 2014f 2.5 4.5 (jason ching) total volume in the 40 major cities was up

10、 11.8% wow to 8.014msqm during merch. exp. (%) cpi (%) 4.4 4.0 4.1 2.5 8.0 1.7 the week of 24-30 december, a return to the high levels last seen in early november. despite the approach of the year-end, the strong momentum in sales volume continued on the back of a better outlook in both the economy

11、and the property market. moreover, affordability and inventory levels continued to improve. overall, four-week volume was up 81% yoy and 4% china 2012f gdp (%) 7.7 merch. exp. (%) 7.0 cpi (%) 2.6 fx rate (eop) cny/usd 6.22 source: deutsche bank ag estimates 2013f 2014f 8.2 8.9 10.0 15.0 3.0 3.5 6.06

12、 5.91 mom, and 5% higher than the october 2010 peak. (jason ching 852 2203 6205) http:/pull.db- _ deutsche bank ag/hong kong deutsche bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that

13、could affect the objectivity of this report. investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. disclosures and analyst certifications are located in appendix 1. mica(p) 072/04/2012. 3 january 2013 made in china db equity research china prop weekly - v

14、olume continued its strong momentum in the 4th week of dec (jason ching) total volume in the 40 major cities was up 8.7% wow to 7.126msqm during the week of 17-23 december and back to the high levels last seen at end-november. despite there being only one more week to go until year-end, the marked r

15、ebound in volume is well within our expectations of a better outlook in both the economy and the property market. some buyers are reportedly buying before the year-end in anticipation of asp increases in 2013. overall, 4-week volume up 82% yoy and -2% mom, and down 7% from october 2010 peak. (jason

16、ching 852 2203 6205) http:/pull.db- china property - affordability continues to improve (tony tsang) chinas national housing affordability, as measured by monthly mortgage burden, has improved from the latest peak in april 2011 to approximately 39.9% in november 2012, below the historical average of

17、 46.4% since january 2005. on a national average, housing affordability improves as disposable incomes continue to grow. in our view, investors should focus on the stable and resilient growth of household income in china, which has been growing at a faster pace than home prices in the last two years

18、. (tony tsang 852 2203 6256) http:/pull.db- china property - inventory situations continue to improve (tony tsang) for the 23 key cities we monitor, the average number of months required to clear the available-for-sale supply (which includes completed but unsold inventory and unsold properties under

19、 construction with pre-sale permits) has continued to decrease from a peak of 21.5 months in february 2012 to 10.4 months in november 2012, and is reaching the eight-month level from 2009 and 2010 (when new supply in the commodity residential market was tight and led to faster property price increas

20、es). (tony tsang 852 2203 6256) http:/pull.db- china property - december sales stable as developers have achieved targets (tony tsang) we have surveyed 19 key listed developers on their contracted sales in december mtd - most developers expect sales to be stable or slightly down. among the 19, two e

21、xpect a slightly positive mom trend, seven expect slower sales as they have achieved their annual targets already, and the other 10 developers see stable sales as year-end approaches. with developers achieving a high percentage of their full-year sales targets and northern china entering its low sea

22、son in property sales, we believe property sales in december 2012 are unlikely to show a significant pick-up. (tony tsang 852 2203 6256) http:/pull.db- china healthcare - china edge p101: monthly data tracker, december 2012 (jack hu) recent data suggest: 1) government healthcare spending increased 2

23、% yoy in november; 2) patient monitor and ultrasound exports from shenzhen customs remained flat in november; 3) the 6-apa price and 7-aca price were slightly lower than in november; and 4) tcm raw material pricing rebounded slightly after a sharp decline over the past few months due to de-stocking.

24、 we advise investors to exercise caution when interpreting these data points. (jack hu 852 2203 6208) http:/pull.db- china edge p102 - growth momentum continues for hospital patient visits in october (jack hu) in october 2012, inpatient/outpatient volume growth rates were 17%/11% yoy, respectively,

25、vs. 7%/13% in october 2011 and 18%/10% in september 2012. on a ytd- october basis, inpatient/outpatient volume growth rates were 18%/11%, respectively, vs. 4%/11% yoy for ytd-october 2011 and 8%/7.4% yoy for fy2011. on a 3q12 basis, inpatient/outpatient volume growth rates were 18%/10%, vs. 18%/12%

26、in 2q12 and page 2deutsche bank ag/hong kong 3 january 2013 made in china 3%/11% in 3q11, respectively. we strongly believe that demand growth will translate into drug/medical consumable sales, which is positive for manufacturers, such as shineway (2877.hk) and sino biopharma (1177.hk). (jack hu 852

27、 2203 6208) http:/pull.db- macau - dec beats; smoking ban a smooth transition on day 1 (karen tang) gaming revenue set a new high of mop28.2bn in dec (+20% yoy), beating octs record (mop27.7bn). both vip and mass markets were stronger than expected, and junkets confirmed that vips are returning. smo

28、king ban became effective on jan 1, and all casinos we visited have set up clear signs. for example, we saw in galaxy macau that smoking is allowed on all the high-limit tables in the pavilion areas, while for the remaining mass floor, all tables on the left side are for non-smoking (right side for

29、smoking). while the smoking tables look slightly busier (80% occupied at 5pm), the non-smoking tables are also reasonably busy (60% occupied). we expect limited impact from this rule. (karen tang 852 2203 6141) http:/pull.db- property - dec hk property marketing takeaways (jason ching) we have just

30、finished our china/hk property marketing trips in korea, hong kong, singapore, shanghai and beijing and have gathered good feedbacks from investors. overall, investors are getting more positive on china property given strong demand and stable policy environments, while remained cautious on hk proper

31、ty given rising policy overhang and weak sales volume. (jason ching 852 2203 6205) http:/pull.db- property - december china property marketing takeaways (jason ching) we have just finished our china/hk property marketing trips in korea, hong kong, singapore, shanghai and beijing and have gathered go

32、od feedbacks from investors. overall, investors are getting more positive on china property given strong demand and stable policy environments, while remained cautious on hk property given rising policy overhang and weak sales volume. (jason ching 852 2203 6205) http:/pull.db- property - chongqing p

33、roperty tour takeaways (jason ching) we spent 2 days in chongqing, visiting various residential and commercial projects of developers like coli, c c land, longfor, sunac, cr land, wharf, hua yu and xie xin. overall, as in most other tier-1/2 cities, residential sales in chongqing have continued to p

34、ick up at a solid pace, while asps have shown some moderate increases. also, we see good traffic flows/ consumer activities in key shopping areas like guan yin qiao and jie feng bei. (jason ching 852 2203 6205) http:/pull.db- property - hk prop: nov decline in mortgage application reflects policy im

35、pact (jason ching) according to hong kong monetary authoritys (hkma) newly released november 2012 mortgage statistics, new mortgage drawdown in november rose for fourth consecutive month to hk$21.16bn (+11.2% mom). however, new mortgage applications dropped 18.9% yoy. meanwhile, new mortgage approve

36、d in november 2012 was down by 2.3% mom to hk$24.15bn. a key reason for the decline was attributable to the decrease in new mortgages approved in secondary transactions following the extension of special stamp duty (ssd) and introduction of buyer stamp duty (bsd) on 26 october, which dropped 13.58%

37、mom. however, new mortgage approved for primary property unit transactions rose 42.37% mom to hk$5.614bn on the back of the numerous primary launches over the period. (jason ching 852 2203 6205) http:/pull.db- property - new household registration to stimulate investment opportunity (tony tsang) jrj

38、 reported that harbin and nanning municipal governments have recently announced new measures and opinions on household registration. specifically, harbin government issued an opinion draft, stating that the city plans to launch a new household registration system to combine both urban and rural befo

39、re 2015, replacing the current household registration system. meanwhile, nanning also issued the measures for deutsche bank ag/hong kongpage 3 3 january 2013 made in china implementation of further reforms of household registration system, stating that the city will no longer separate its household

40、into urban and rural, and that one could become a registered household if (1) buy a flat in the city, (2) work in the city for 4 years, and (3) fulfilled certain investment amount. jrj said this latest attempts of household registration reform in 2 of chinas provincial city clearly indicated the gov

41、ernments determination to facilitate the next stage of urbanization. (tony tsang 852 2203 6256) http:/pull.db- property - mlr to implement multiple measures to tackle land kings (tony tsang) jrj reported from a recent press conference held by liao yonglin, head of the land use management bureau in t

42、he ministry of land and resources (mlr), who had stated that the mlr will increase efforts on policy guidance and strengths, closely monitor and apply tightening controls where necessary, to stabilize the land market by ensuring adequate supply of land, and to dampen any abnormal price volatilities

43、in land prices. all provinces will be required to implement various measures such as carving-out of larger land lots, joint-bidding, applying additional bidding terms and increase payment difficulties, to avoid the emergence of land kings. at the same time, the ministry will implement a system of cl

44、osely monitoring large developers actions, and to initiate investigation on the recent land king transaction ie. nanjing xiaguang area land lot #2, won by mcc real estate group, which is 2012s most expensive land lot by total value in china. (tony tsang 852 2203 6256) http:/pull.db- construction mat

45、erials - 2012 cement price recap (johnson wan) after a disappointing 1h12, cement prices staged a mild rebound in end aug following a recovery in infrastructure projects and a new round of production halts. however, the rebound in cement prices was short-lived as cold weather and heavy rainfall reve

46、rsed the upward trajectory. nationwide inventories as of dec 28, 2012 are currently high at 72% of storage capacity and the downtrend in cement prices is expected to continue over the next two months. overall, national cement asps (low grade and high grade) declined from an average of rmb387/t to rm

47、b336/t, down 13.3% yoy. this is a five- year low in cement prices, back to levels seen in 2008. high grade cement asps fell from rmb407/t to rmb351/t, down 13.8% yoy while low grade cement asps fell from rmb367/t to rmb321/t, down 12.6% yoy. (johnson wan 852 2203 6163) http:/pull.db- metals 2) lower

48、ing the entry barrier to invest in sub-debts; 3) broadening the duration of the sub-debt and allowing a certain percentage of sub-debt to be counted as brokers net capital based on sub-debts duration; and 4) simplifying the sub-debt issuance procedure and increasing the sub-debt issuance flexibility

49、. (judy zhang 852 2203 6193) http:/pull.db- kaisa - launch of kaisa city plaza a success; fetching rmb800mn in sales (1638.hk, buy, target price: hkd 4.00, closing price: hkd 2.45, jason ching) we reiterate our buy on kaisa following our visit to the kaisa city plaza project in shenzhen over the pas

50、t weekend, of which the project was officially launched. according to management, the project fetched total sales of rmb800mn over the weekend. at an asp of about rmb20,000/sqm, we estimate a gross margin of about 55%. we believe the success of kaisa city plaza will become a showcase of the superior

51、 profitability attached with redevelopment projects that kaisa has close to 10mn sqm (land area) in the pipeline, and should lead to further re-rating of the stock. (jason ching 852 2203 6205) http:/pull.db- galaxy - unveils phase 3; unlocking value of its large landbank (0027.hk, buy, target price:

52、 hkd 31.00, closing price: hkd 29.75, karen tang) yesterday, at a press conference, galaxy ceo francis lui unveiled details of phases 3 also, bidu, 0728.hk utility/alternative energy shaanxi coal and chemical industry group purchases 51% stake in datang powers subsidiary asia financial daily china b

53、rokers(=), japan banks(+), mufg(+), nomura(+), chailease(-) china financial daily new rules on sub-debt: lt positive for brokers, but limited st impact inside the great wall planning meeting on chinas new urbanisation drive to be held in 2013 asia consumer as a result, the recommendations may differ

54、 and the price targets and estimates of each may vary widely. in august 2009, deutsche bank instituted a new policy whereby analysts may choose not to set or maintain a target price of certain issuers under coverage with a hold rating. in particular, this will typically occur for hold rated stocks h

55、aving a market cap smaller than most other companies in its sector or region. we believe that such policy will allow us to make best use of our resources. please visit our website at http:/ to determine the target price of any stock. the financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suit

56、able for all investors and investors must make their own informed investment decisions. stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of price fluctuations and other factors. if a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investors currency, a change in exchange rates may a

57、dversely affect the investment. past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. deutsche bank may with respect to securities covered by this report, sell to or buy from customers on a principal basis, and consider this report in deciding to trade on a proprietary basis. unless gove

58、rning law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the deutsche bank entity in the investors home jurisdiction. in the u.s. this report is approved and/or distributed by deutsche bank securities inc., a member of the nyse, the nasd, nfa and sipc. in germany this report is approved and/or communicated by deutsche bank ag frankfurt authorized by the bafin. in the united kingdom this report is approved and/or